Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Fed by Falling Earnings Expectations / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
By: John_Mauldin
Earnings and Mr. Bear - Earnings Before Bad Stuff
- How Ugly Can it Get?
- A Lean Mean Reversion Machine
- Some Thoughts on Energy
"The stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run." - Benjamin Graham
The voting part of the equation is tempered by fear and greed. It is largely emotional, although investors like to think of themselves as rational players. That emotion is driven by views of the future. If you can be confident of large and growing returns, you are less likely to be swayed by the erratic movements of a stock. But as confidence wanes? Well, that is the stuff that bear markets are made of.
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Saturday, July 26, 2008
Financial Stocks Bottom, is Wall Street Living in Fantasy land? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: My daughters love Fantasyland at Walt Disney World. The two-and-a-half year old is a fan of Cinderella's merry-go-round, while my five-and-a-half year old likes Dumbo's flying elephant ride. Heck, if they had their way, my girls would go to Fantasyland every year.
But even that wouldn't be enough for Wall Street's big money managers. They seem to head back to "Financial Fantasyland" once every few months. And the latest trip has been a real doozy.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
IndyMac Checks and Stocks Bounce, Commodities Deflate / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The fear, the hassle, the long lines in the hot sun, and now the wait . Many IndyMac customers who are moving their money to another bank won't be able to access all of their funds for more than a week. By law, the other banks must make IndyMac cashier's check deposits up to $5,000 available for withdrawal in one business day. But any amount over that can be held up to nine business days. It is reported that some banks are not taking IndyMac checks at all.
An FDIC takeover of a bank is no fun for the depositors. Even though the accounts are insured up to $100,000, the FDIC can only piecemeal out withdrawals until they have settled their audits. The inconvenience factor is very high. That is yet another reason for doing due diligence on your own bank or credit union before the authorities have stepped in.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
Broadening Top Megaphone Pattern Predicted Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
“The Jaws of Death” - The following chart was shown regularly throughout 2007, as we made the point that stocks, specifically the Dow Industrials, had traced out a huge, ominous, major Broadening Top pattern which suggested a long and sharp plunge would follow.
Here is what we said in the August 2007 expanded weekend issue: “We researched and discovered that almost all the major stock market tops of the past century were marked by a Broadening Top pattern . This pattern, also know as a Megaphone , which also looks like a set of jaws, is uniquely characterized by two mirroring boundary lines. The top boundary line is ascending; the bottom boundary line is descending.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Phases / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Mike_Shedlock
In a bull market, everyone ignores the greed and fraud that running rampant. No one wants to take away the spiked punch, even after it is perfectly clear that everyone is drunk. The party continues long after any reasonable person might have expected the party to end. Eventually the party goers all pass out on the floor and the pool of greater fools exhausts itself. In a bear market, there are more distinct, readily observable phases.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
Profit From the Trillion Dollar U.S. Budget Deficit / Stock-Markets / US Debt
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: The federal budget deficit hasn't received a lot of press lately, what with all the worries about the U.S. financial system, the home mortgage market, and the rescues that might be necessary to save both. In fact, it's a bad sign, since the Bush administration and the Democrats in Congress have joint responsibility for keeping the budget deficit under control, so they would both be crowing about it if they were doing a good job. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 25, 2008
Unwinding Yen Carry Trade Feeding Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade
By: Richard_Gorton
The yen carry trade unwound as Martin Crutsinger Associated Press related the National Association of Realtor Report that sales of existing homes fell more sharply than expected in June. Sales dropped by 2.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.86 million units which left sales 15.5 percent below where they were a year ago. The drop in sales pushed inventories of unsold single-family homes and condominiums to 4.49 million units. That represented a 11.1 month supply at the June sales pace, the second highest level in the past 24 years. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Brazils' Stock Market Bubble Has Burst / Stock-Markets / Brazil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Since its July 15 low, the iShares Brazil ETF (AMEX: EWZ) was up 2.5% through yesterday's close whereas the SPY was up 6.7%. In addition, the pattern carved out by the EWZ has taken the shape of a bearish coil, which warns me to expect another bout of weakness.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair Is Out Of Control / Stock-Markets / Government Intervention
By: Mike_Shedlock
In a sad twist of irony Shelia Bair is accusing blogs of being "out of control".
Sadder still is the fact that San Francisco Business Times writer Mark Calvey agrees. Please consider the incredibly inane article FDIC learns it ignores bloggers at its peril .
The federal agency insuring bank deposits learned that it can't afford to ignore the blogs following its seizure this month of IndyMac Bank, the largest bank failure since the 1980s.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Oil and Food Prices Falling, Real Estate Stabilizing, Stocks Soaring, Crisis Over? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Imagine the following: The price of oil falls back to $107 ... gas prices drop to say, $3.50 a gallon or lower ... and food prices decline 10% or even 20%.
Simultaneously, the real estate market stabilizes. Foreclosures peak ... new and existing home sales pick up ... and consumers start spending again, opening up their wallets and purses.
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Thursday, July 24, 2008
Panic Building on Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Adrian_Ash
Before getting into this missive, I would like to state that other silver commentators make a very strong case for silver being a metal that does well in good, prosperous times. I absolutely agree. If the world at large were gaining in real wealth and the economy were humming along, we all might be purchasing flat screen TV's and using even more silver than we do today. Bottom line, silver does not need bad times to do well. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
China's Government Set on Making Stock Market Bottom / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: For thousands of years, China was ruled by dynasty after dynasty before finally becoming a republic in 1912. In 1949, the Communist People's Republic of China was formed after the defeat of the Nationalist forces. And in 1978, Deng Xiaoping ascended to power and began a series of economic reforms.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
The Greatest Transfer of Wealth in History is About to Unfold / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Ty_Andros
As we look out over the next six months what we see will be extraordinary. The opportunities for prepared investors have never been brighter as the unfolding volatility will be incredible. “Volatility is Opportunity ” for the prepared investor and it will arrive in spades. After a short period of corrective activity I believe explosive moves in almost ALL SECTORS (interest rates, stocks, commodities, natural resources, currencies, and more) lay on the near horizon. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Banking Crisis Alert -How Safe is Your Bank / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Marty_Chenard
Sunday's headline coming out of Washington was :"Paulson braces public for months of tough times"
Paulson had these comments:"I think it's going to be months that we're working our way through this period -- clearly months,"
"The number of troubled banks will increase as they struggle to cope with big losses on bad mortgages."
In one breath, he was telling Americans to "brace themselves for tough times ahead". In the next breath, he was essentially saying, don't worry, the US Banking system is sound.
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Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Bailouts Mean US Tax Payers Pay for the Mistakes of Rich Bankers / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Stathis
With all that's happened with the real estate and banking crisis, the word “bailout” has been plastered throughout the media with little discussion of exactly what a bailout entails. Supplying money to a distressed company does not by itself represent a bailout. It all depends on where the money is coming from, and whether or not a moral hazard has been created.
Bear Stearns vs. LTCM
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Wednesday, July 23, 2008
How to Make Money in a Stocks Bear Market and Protect Your Bank Deposits Video / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Sarah_Jones
In this new 40 minute long special video edition of the Theorist , Bob Prechter answer today's most urgent financial questions:
1) Your bank deposits – can they stay safe?
2) How do you navigate the bear market in stocks?
3) When will the bear market end?
4) And: what do these issues mean for the broader economy?
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Investment Strategies to Exploit Current Macroeconomic Trends / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Mike_Stathis
I have several investment strategies in play to exploit the macroeconomic trends that continue to unfold. Many of these strategies have paid off handsomely – shorting the financials, homebuilders, and mortgage companies – and playing the market trading ranges. While I feel there is still more to be made by shorting the financials, the fact is that shorting strategies are not suitable for many investors. Here, I attempt to provide some more practical guidance for everyday investors. As you will see, I gradually progress into more sophisticated strategies. You need to determine what the best approach is for you based upon your risk tolerance, investment needs and horizon.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Dubai's Oil Boom Financial Centre Heading for Bust? / Stock-Markets / Middle East
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: Dubai has plenty of qualities that catch an investor's eye.
- The emirate has the world's only (self-proclaimed) 7-star hotel.
- Dubai also is home to the biggest financial market in the Middle East, which is itself publicly quoted and trades at 25 times forecast 2008 earnings.
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Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Investing Lessons for Today From Japans Lost Decade of Economic Depression / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: A "Lost Decade" doesn't have to translate into lost profit opportunities. As the global financial crisis continues to escalate, the United States is increasingly facing the prospect of a long malaise that could easily eclipse Japan's Lost Decade of the 1990s in both duration and depth.
And history shows that such periods can be the worst for investors to navigate - especially when they follow a record stock-market run, such as the all-time-highs that U.S. share prices reached last fall.
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Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Bullish Countertrend Rally Developing in Dow Stocks Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My pattern and momentum work on the 4-hour Dow Diamonds (AMEX: DIA) price action off of the July 15 low argues that the upleg from the 108.33 low to the 115.65 high (7/21) represents the initial recovery rally leg, and that the weakness into today's low at 113.80 represents a shallow correction of that initial upleg.Read full article... Read full article...