Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, December 18, 2009
As the Dow Stocks Index Goes, So Goes the Country / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The Dow has managed to claw back 50% of the losses that occurred in 2007 and 2008. The question now is, what's ahead?
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Friday, December 18, 2009
Stock Market At Mid Range..Some Leaders Breaking Lower... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
But nothing is broken as those that are breaking can come right back up. It isn't great to see Apple Inc. (AAPL) lose the 50-day exponential moving average for the second time in short order. It lost it and surged back through with an eight point up day but that has now been largely lost, and we are again below on this massively important leader. It's only by a little more than a dollar (50's at 193.80) and it wouldn't take much for AAPL to recapture this critical level but it's still not great to see it go away once again. In bull markets that may be topping out, you look for small subtle signs that say there may be trouble ahead. AAPL losing the 50's is certainly at least a red flag that has to be respected.
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Thursday, December 17, 2009
ProShares UltraShort SPY SDS Recovery Rally Needs to Hurdle Prior Rally Peak / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Looking at the hourly chart on the ProShares UltraShort SPY (NYSE: SDS), the only thing we really know about the pattern is that the price structure has carved out what could be a double bottom low in December, which is juxtaposed against a series of declining rally peaks.
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Thursday, December 17, 2009
Stock Market Timers, FOMC A One Day Event / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
For Wednesday's FOMC announcement, the Rydex market timers were betting heavy that Bernanke and company would deliver. The Fed didn't disappoint as they continue to keep their foot on the easy money pedal. Unfortunately, the market did its best to frustrate the most, and the early morning rally fizzled intraday. The Rydex market timers have moved back to the sidelines.
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Thursday, December 17, 2009
Stock Market Another Nothing Day.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
And that's with the Feds saying to leave interest rates alone for a long time to come. No fear of rising interest rates to come for our economy. The market shrugged off the good news in a way that said it knew this is what was coming all along. Good news can't break us out these days and we had lots of it today. Excellent news on the housing front and on the inflation front this morning, and then the news from the Feds, but the market can not break through this 1115/1119 wall of china. The market tried one more push when the Fed offered chocolate to the market but apparently the market is allergic these days.
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Thursday, December 17, 2009
Australia Currency and Country ETF Analysis / Stock-Markets / Austrailia
Figure 1 is a weekly chart comparing the Currency Shares Australian $ (symbol: FXA) to the i-Shares MSCI Australia Index Fund (symbol: EWA). As you can see, these two instruments are highly correlated across multiple time frames.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Stock Market S&P 500 Price Earnings Forecast 2010 to 2011 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
The S&P 500 PE ratio is the primary measure used by many investors to value the stock market and assess S&P 500 trend. Historically, the S&P 500 PE ratio has a median of 15.7. As of September 30, 2009, the S&P PE ratio was 86 based on a closing price of 1057 and trailing annual earnings of the S&P 500 of $46.36. All numbers are from the Standard & Poor’s S&P 500 index reporting. Part of the reason the PE ratio is so high is the negative affect of earnings in the December 2008 and March 2009 quarters. After the recent market rally, what should investors expect for 2010?
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Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Rules for Making Stock Market Profits in the Next Decade / Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
Your town probably has a Chamber of Commerce. Even my little town of Bigfork, Montana (population 6,000) has a Chamber of Commerce.
The Chamber of Commerce isn’t restricted to only the U.S. either. One of the largest chambers is located in Shanghai, China.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Rydex Stock Market Timers Indicator Signaling Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds versus the amount of assets in the leveraged and bearish funds. This data is hidden, but the ratio of bull to bear, which is depicted by the indicator in the lower panel, is 2 to 1. Since July, 2009, every time this ratio got above 2, it marked a short term top in the S&P500. These are noted by the maroon colored vertical bars.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Sorry Folks... Stock Market Consolidation Continues..Bears Hold The Top.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
I don't know how to say it any differently any more. I mean, you have to laugh. We hit the top. We get overbought. We sell off. We get to the bottom. We get oversold. We rise back up. Bulls defend 1085 S&P 500. Bears defend the 1110-1119 area on the S&P 500. An old story where the bulls and bears defend critical levels of resistance and support. Stocks are no different. A stock like Wynn Resorts (WYNN) up big yesterday but down a bit more than that today.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Stock Market Volatile Session Ends Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The market had a volatile session today. They were down early, then up sharply in a steep snapback rally after the first hour that took the indices right up to retest those key overhead resistance levels. They couldn't break through again, pulled back in an orderly fashion for most of the rest of the session until late in the day when they accelerated to the downside. Only in the last 15 minutes did they snapback to pare the losses.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
The Not So Orthodox Broadening Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Technical Analysis
A few of you have been asking me whether I am still following the broadening top formation. The answer is, Yes, Yes, Yes and Yes.
Being a fractal with self-similarity, the broadening top has replicated itself at several degrees of trend, much like the fern leaf to the left. This is giving it the power to extend beyond its expected boundary by repeating a self-similar pattern over and over again.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
U.S. Investor End of Year Tax Loss Harvesting and Other Strategies / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
Since I’m not only doing the usual holiday running around, but also trying to prepare for an upcoming three-week trip to India, I’m acutely aware of just how hectic this time of the year can be.
But I also recognize that this is precisely one of the most important times for making moves that could significantly impact your finances, too.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Historic Bull Run in Bonds Points to Higher Prices for U.S. Stocks in 2010 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: A sluggish month in the stock market has equity investors worrying about what's next.
But those equity investors would feel so much better if they'd just spend a little time studying the credit markets. And with good reason: The bull market in credit that continues to rage in the face of this stock-market lethargy leads us to one simple conclusion.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Global Financial Crisis, No Bailout Will Stop It / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
Sometimes, a bailout is not enough.
When Dubai World black swanned global investors last month with what amounts to be a reported $80 Billion in debt liabilities, it sent shivers down the spine of many a financial manager and stock trader. For those who were paying attention, Dubai’s troubled assets were no surprise, it was simply a matter of time. Oft repeated by contrarian analysts and investors like Dr. Doom Marc Faber, Gerald Celente, Jim Rogers, and Karl Denninger, the mathematical certainty of the economic crisis would play out - eventually.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Stock Market Investors Watching the Snow Fall / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Investors seem to be mailing it in for the last couple of weeks of the year. Some buying interest on decent overall economic numbers, but very low volume indicates that many are sitting on their hands awaiting the flip of the calendar. Retail sales were better than expected, however auto sales and slightly higher gas prices did boost sales. The trade picture improved some, while jobless claim rose a bit – so at worst OK economic data.
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Monday, December 14, 2009
Stock Market Indices Close Near Session Highs, Start Week Up Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The indices managed to start the week off with some more gains, but labored in the afternoon.
The day started out with a nice gap up. They immediately took out Friday's highs on the S&P 500, but failed to do so on the Nasdaq 100, and then pulled back and consolidated. They took off again and extended the highs for the entire trading range of the last 4 weeks on the SPX, reaching as high as 1114.76. The NDX had trouble getting through 1810-11 resistance and backed off in mid-afternoon, but came on again near the close to end not far off the highs for the day.
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Monday, December 14, 2009
U.S. Dollar, Commodities and Emerging Market Trend Forecasts for 2010 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Today I am speaking at a local conference here in Dallas for my friends Charles and Louis Gave of GaveKal along with George Friedman of Stratfor, and get to finally meet Anatole Kaletsky. They graciously allowed me to send their latest Five Corners report as this week's Outside the Box. I find their research to be very thought-provoking as they are one of the main sources of optimism in my ususal readings (except for their very correct and profitable views on the European debt of the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, [Ireland?], Greece and Spain).
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Monday, December 14, 2009
Stock Market Bases Still Set Up Bullish... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
It's an endless pit of nothing. I know that's what it feels like folks. A market that seemingly can't move. No volatility. Hours of the market trading in such a small range. We're not used to that after the experience of having the market blasting off from March until September. Seven sweet months of beautiful gains that spent very little time pulling back. A market that wanted nothing but higher seemingly every day. Then we get four months of this range bound market and we yearn for that type of market once again. Isn't going to happen but that doesn't mean we won't see another move higher in the near future. I believe we will.
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Monday, December 14, 2009
The Cult of Stock Market Investor Non-participation / Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
Over the last few years we’ve made reference to the “cult” of non-participation. By this I mean the relative lack of retail investor interest in the stock market compared to the former decade. In tonight’s report we’ll look at why this trend of non-participation may be soon coming to an end.Read full article... Read full article...