Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, February 14, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Finally Turns Neutral / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Finally, the "Dumb Money" indicator has turned neutral after spending 28 consecutive weeks in the extreme bullish zone. For those keeping score at home, the S&P500 gained 8.9% over the past 28 weeks. For the sake of comparison, investor sentiment was either bearish or neutral for the 9 weeks following the March 6, 2009 bottom, and over that time, the S&P500 gained 36%. I will leave it to you as to which market environment I want to put my money to work.
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Saturday, February 13, 2010
Stocks Bear Market Rally Manipulation / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
As I have stated all along, my research suggests to me that the rally out of the March 2009 low has been a bear market rally. Nothing has occurred to change that point of view. As a result of the weakness that began a few weeks ago, I have received a number of e-mails asking about manipulation. Over the years I’ve noticed that every time the market makes a break, questions about manipulation and the ability of the powers that be to hold the markets up seem to surface. It is for this reason that I want to address the subject of manipulation in this article.
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Saturday, February 13, 2010
Stock Market Trying To Carve Out A Bottom... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
But you know it won't come easy folks. Once we broke down below the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages, back tested and fell again, the trend changed from up to down. breaking trends, once in place, is not an easy chore. So you try to look for small clues that suggests that if the trend hasn't changed yet back to up, it is certainly trying to put in a low for this strong move lower off the 1151 top on the S&P 500. A process that can feel like you just sat in the dentist's chair for a few hours. It leaves you stunned and battered. At least that's how I feel when I go to the dentist.
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Saturday, February 13, 2010
Global Stock Markets Hit by Fear / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Over the past three or four years a strange phenomenon has developed in the global investment markets. With some exceptions, many asset classes, in particular domestic and foreign equities, commodities, and foreign currencies have tended to move in the same direction on a day to day basis. The mega-correlation has lasted so long that most now take it for granted. This leaves investors with relatively simple choices: when to get in to the market in general and when to park assets in cash and U.S. Treasuries.
Saturday, February 13, 2010
China Tries to Avoid Stock Market Bubble by Tightening Bank Lending / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
China sees a bubble ahead and is trying to avoid it – is that such a bad thing?
Isn’t this what we expect Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve to do here at home – take clear and decisive action to drain off excess liquidity in the economy before inflation takes hold?
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Saturday, February 13, 2010
U.S. Treasuries Hit Hard, Can the Stock Market Rally Continue? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Justice Isn’t Blind, It’s Unconscious - (Bloomberg) It is so widely accepted that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s balance sheet was bogus that even former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson can say it in his new memoir. And still, the government hasn’t found anyone who did anything wrong at the failed investment bank.
How could that be, 17 months after Lehman collapsed and sent the global credit crisis into overdrive? While Congress and the White House dither about reforming the U.S. financial system, the wheels of justice are grinding so slowly, if at all, that it seems there’s no appetite in Washington for holding Wall Street executives accountable for anything.
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Friday, February 12, 2010
Economic Uncertainty Generates Stock Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market loathes uncertainty.
Twelve months ago the market was in the midst of the January-February mini-crash to its March low. The S&P 500 lost 25% of its value in those final two months of the 2007-2009 bear market. Its problem was uncertainty over whether the aggressive government stimulus actions rushed into place could possibly work fast enough to prevent the recession from worsening into the next Great Depression.
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Friday, February 12, 2010
Investor Gains from Looming Financial Armageddon / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
“China has ordered managers of its vast currency reserves to withdraw from risky dollar assets and retreat to core debt guaranteed by the US government, a clear sign that Beijing is battening down the hatches for fresh trouble on global markets…
BNP Paribas said the move has major implications for global risk assets. ‘The message from Beijing is that we don't like this environment,’ said Hans Redeker, the bank's currency chief.
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Friday, February 12, 2010
Stock and Commodity Markets Caution Reigns / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The January market dip was focused on profits taking. Good results in various sectors brought selling, but not sell-offs. It is evidence that caution still reigns at the start of the new decade and isn’t really saying much else, for now. It does indicate wealth preservation after the ‘08 Crunch is, and likely will continue to be, the focus of “Boomers” who are nearing the end of their working lives. How long they are good with clipping low interest coupons is the next question on the table.
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Friday, February 12, 2010
Impact of Greece Debt Crisis and Bailout Talk on the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
So let me get this right… Stocks start to collapse because Greece’s fiscal problems come to surface (problems I might add that have been obvious for months). But then, there is talk of a potential bailout (not an actual bailout, just “talk”) and stocks erupt higher again.
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Friday, February 12, 2010
Stock Market To Go Lower Before Going Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
In the short term, the equity markets are just holding on. Risk trade on. Risk trade off. One day up and one day down. I have identified one reason to be long and in the markets (i.e., Rydex market timers turning bearish), but I have been very clear that this Rydex "strategy" is a very short term play. Remember, in this strategy, winning trades only last on average 6 trading days.
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Friday, February 12, 2010
Mario’s February Stock and Financial Market Takes Plus A Taste Of China / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
There is no substitute for the daily hours of studying, researching and watching the markets. While it is analytical, you also develop a feel for it that's hard to explain, "get in the groove" so to speak. That’s just when the market will make a fool of you and takes lots of your carefully strategized money. With those caveats in mind, if you are long stocks right now, you're basically out of your mind. WHY would you be long stocks right now? The markets are correcting downward lead by the China/HK markets because valuations after this past year's rise are too high relative to overall economic health.
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Friday, February 12, 2010
Stock Market Investors, Here's Why You Need to Pay Careful Attention / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
This past Tuesday, our update was entitled "Is there such a thing as a "lead dog" index?"
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Friday, February 12, 2010
The Next Three Stock Market Headwinds After Greece Debt Crisis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The last few weeks have not been good for the markets.
If you’ve enjoyed the recent rally and, like we’ve urged, stopped arguing with the market and just rode it out for all its worth, you’ve been caught up a little in this correction.
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Friday, February 12, 2010
Major Investment Banks Forecast Stock Market S&P 1250 Target 2010 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The following are the price target for S&P by all major Investment Banks issued at the beginning of the year. What is even more surprising is the fact that instead of downgrade for S&P given the corrections in the market, HSBC has upgraded their targets by over 5% to 1300.
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Friday, February 12, 2010
Rydex Stock Market Timers Remain Bearish Heading Into Holiday... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures the ratio of the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds relative to those funds that are bearish and leveraged.
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Friday, February 12, 2010
Stock Market We Remain in Buy Mode / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
We Remain in Buy Mode
While others ponder over whether this rally is for real, were already long...
Friday, February 12, 2010
Stock Market Setting Up...But Gaps, 20's/50's Dead Ahead... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
When markets sell off roughly 10% off the top, it's extremely important to see how oscillators set up once the selling calms down. To look at how the daily charts will set up once some buying comes in. Watching the stochastics and MACD in particular to see if they can cross fast line over slow line which is bullish. Off deeply compressed levels we are seeing some nice crosses happen. This in it of itself does not guarantee that things will turn up and shoot higher from here but it does show good action and tells us the worst of this correction is likely over. There are headaches dead ahead that normally would give the market problems so there is no go out and buy 100% of your portfolio dollars signal here.
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Friday, February 12, 2010
Get Used to Dow 10,000, Forecast for 10 More Years of Investor Famine / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
After trading below 9900 intraday Friday, an afternoon rally left the index above the key 10,000 mark heading into this week. The Dow's comeback encouraged the bulls but is Dow 10,000 really something to be excited about? (The index was back below 10,000 early Monday.)
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Thursday, February 11, 2010
Bob Prechter's "Conquer The Crash": Eight Chapters For Free / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
When EWI President Robert Prechter sat down to write the first edition of "Conquer The Crash" in 2002, the idea that the United States would enter a period of what news authorities coined "economic Armageddon" several years later was unheard of.
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