Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, March 11, 2010
Stock Market Softer on Fears Tighter Chinese Policy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
A pretty moribund Wednesday but market sentiment has remained tilted towards the positive. In the US, the S&P500 took another stride towards eclipsing the 19 January high with a further 0.5% gain, helped by solid increases in the financials and the IT sector (of course the Nasdaq has already made new highs). US Treasury bonds were a bit weaker after the $21 billion 10 year auction. The auction itself was quite strong, with the bid-to-cover ratio of 3.45 comparing with the average of 2.77 over the last ten 10 year auctions.
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Thursday, March 11, 2010
Stock Market Rally Optical Illusions, “Oil Shocks,” and China’s Headache / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
March 9th, marked the one-year anniversary of the elusive bottom of the most brutal bear market since the 1930’s. At the time, job losses were running in excess of 700,000 /month, and fear was rife that the US-banking system was on the verge of being nationalized. American factories and miners were using 68% of industrial capacity, the lowest level since records began in 1948. Corporate profits fell sharply for the seventh consecutive quarter, the longest losing streak since the 1930’s. The second coming of the “Great Depression” looked imminent.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Distress Signals On Financial Crisis Watch / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2010
To be sure, almost without debate, all the financial world has turned to crisis mode. One can safely describe the norm to be crisis proliferation. This theme will clearly continue for the full year in progress. The signs are everywhere. The evidence is compelling. The criticism of remedy is replete with denials. The USGovt officials grow more desperate with each passing week. The Dubai and Greek debt woes seemed to have opened Pandora's Box.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
What’s Really Going On In The Financial and Commodity Markets This Year / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Most of the articles and media reporting are centered around the stock market, because most investors and traders look to the stock market for returns. A few newspapers and magazines occasionally talk about commodities, but are mostly reporting on Gold, Copper and Oil.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Structural Weakness of the US Dollar Means Rally Will Not Last / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Every important factor we see is working against the dollar and we believe that trend is irreversible. That means the present dollar rally probably cannot endure and it could well be the time to short the USDX.
Most observers discuss Europe’s problems and the plight of the euro, pound, and the Danish and Swedish koronas. They believe these European currencies will plunge lower versus the dollar and that the dollar will maintain, even after a dollar rally from 74 to 81 on the USDX. As we have said before the euro was unnatural creation born of a desire to usher in a world currency. As we shall see in the future the euro will fail.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Stock Market Crucial Test Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The rally out of the February intermediate and yearly cycle low has now traveled far enough and long enough that it is due to take a breather. That breather would be in the form of a short term pullback into the mid cycle low.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Stocks Tread Water Awaiting A Fresh Trend Catalyst / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
US stocks closed a rather modest 0.15% higher Tuesday in a real sea-saw day. Stocks opened lower, but rallied almost 1% in the morning and afternoon before selling off dramatically into the close. Stocks held onto their gains, but a low volume morning advance on no news was turned around on the highest volume of the day which came to the downside. This is a microcosm of what we have seen in recent months – low volume ascent and high volume descent.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
The End of the Stock Market Recovery? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I received an interesting e-mail the other day that sheds some light on the current state of investor psychology. He writes, “I hear from a hedge fund and analyst friend that most major cycle work tops out from this coming week thru April and [he says] it’s THE top. One he sites is the Bradley model which shows a devastating drop beginning after next week into October of this year to roughly Dow 6,500. Looking back all the way to 1900 chart of market I've never seen a major top without breadth deteriorating for many months or even a year or more before a major bear.”
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Where’s The Volume to Confirm The Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The volume of share trading for key index funds is going down while the price is going up. Should we say the smart money is quietly accumulating shares, or should we say that the smart money is on the sidelines while the dumb money pushes prices higher?
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Stock Market Last Day Selling..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
We finally saw the market pull back some late today as those high RSI readings kicked in. It wasn't the type of selling that says the market is doomed from here because that's not likely the case at all. When markets get overbought they need to unwind so you have to look at the selling that takes place more as an opportunity rather than a it's all over for the market type of situation. Selling is never fun if you have a long bias and it doesn't take very much selling to kick fear in pretty hard. Again, greed is easy. Fear is a tough son of a gun. With the late day selling we saw some of the 60-minute charts do quite a bit of unwinding although by no means should that selling be totally over. We can try to grind higher again but upside will be very tough indeed for the very short-term.
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Tuesday, March 09, 2010
Entropy, Why the World as We Know It Is Dying / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report
The concept of entropy is one of the most useful terms for understanding just about everything. While it has its origins in natural law – thermodynamics, specifically – the concept holds true pretty much across all closed systems.
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Tuesday, March 09, 2010
Stocks Unhappy Anniversary / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Today marks the one-year anniversary of what proved to be the low-point for risk assets in the post Lehman Brothers meltdown. However, as is typical in the wake of a US non-farm payrolls report, markets were pretty subdued overnight. Whilst Asian bourses rallied strongly yesterday in catch-up to Friday’s US price action, most key bourses in Europe have closed virtually unchanged Monday as did those in North America (indeed the S&P 500 traded within just a 4 index point range).
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Tuesday, March 09, 2010
A Stock Bull Market Requires a Healthy Consumer Underneath / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
A year ago this week the stock market hit its nefarious 666 level on the S&P 500. Since that historic day, we have enjoyed a 68% appreciation in equities from their depressionary low. Not only has the bounce caused a chorus of perma-bulls to claim the worst of the recession is behind us, but also to declare that the bull market is here to stay.
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Tuesday, March 09, 2010
S&P VIX Ratio Signals Looming Decline for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Exactly fifty two weeks after the S&P500 hit its 12-year lows at 666, the index rose 68%, driving down the VIX near January's 19-month lows. Much analysis has been done on equity indices and the VIX on the S&P index options. But the relationship between the two merits closer attention. Neither the S&P500, nor the Dow have yet retested their January highs.
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Monday, March 08, 2010
Stock Market Grinding Action at Overbought..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Which is exactly what we're doing right here. With S&P 500 resistance at 1151 and with many index charts at 70 RSI's, it's not easy here for major upside until we get some unwinding of those daily charts to where the RSI's are at least in the lower 60's, if not somewhere in the 50's. It's not just that we're overbought, but again, when you add in major resistance 1% away, it makes the journey that much more difficult for sustained upside in the short-term.
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Monday, March 08, 2010
Stock Commodity and Financial Markets Chart Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The Chinese market, as represented by the Shanghai Composite has a very vulnerable aspect to it and needs to do some serious work on the upside to take off and extend its bull move.
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Monday, March 08, 2010
Battle of the Titans, Stocks Bulls vs Bears, Inflation vs Deflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
It’s a battle between the bull and the bear – fear and greed – inflation and deflation – in the stock market. Of course when it comes to this sentiment the same can be said about all markets, which is what makes them markets in the end, however stocks are close to people’s hearts because of widespread participation these days. Today however, because so much of the money in the market is being handled by ‘other people’, being brokers or hedge funds, the concepts of fear and greed are not what they were, with the public now largely oblivious or numbed to the awareness they should have when it comes to their financial futures. What’s more, because of this an unscrupulous financial services industry has become completely corrupted beyond repair, which will be their (and our) undoing in the end.
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Monday, March 08, 2010
A Cyclical Peak into the Future for Stocks, Dollar and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Readers love my cycles approach to the markets because it lets them peek into the future paths of market action in various assets.
So in this issue, I’ll give you an updated glimpse into the future of some key markets using cycle analysis — the historical study of the internal rhythms and hidden forces that truly drive the markets. It’s the best forecasting method I know of.
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Monday, March 08, 2010
Gravest Financial Dangers and Greatest Investor Profits / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
We now face the gravest financial dangers — and the greatest profit opportunities — in two generations.
But before I tell you about what the future could bring, let me tell you how my family and I have come to this place and time.
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Monday, March 08, 2010
Stocks Look To Consolidate Gains From Friday / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
On Friday a combination of better-than-expected data and easing sovereign concerns combined to deliver some very constructive price action in equity markets, with key bourses across Europe and the US making seven-week highs. Commodity prices strengthened and the Baltic Dry Freight Index posted a strong increase for a third consecutive session (and the seventh consecutive increase in total) to make a six-week high.
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