My YouTube Stock Market Sentiment Index

Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment Mar 17, 2010 - 04:18 AM GMT

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article I take my trading and market analysis very seriously. But once in a while you have to let your hair down (what's left of it, anyway) and have a little fun.

I had noticed that on YouTube it seemed that bearishly apocalyptic market and economic analysis (most of which should be referred to as "analysis") received far more views than bullish or neutral postings. I also noticed that such videos would receive many concurring comments and favorable ratings while bullish analysis was frequently targeted for denigration.

As a contrarian trader, I know that when the public is rabidly fearful it is time to be greedy. Could there be a YouTube Index that would help us identify the trend in broad public sentiment? I decided to run a beta test.

I posted two videos. One was designed purposefully to echo extreme bearish views on the markets and the economy and the other was geared to reflect similarly outlier bullish views.

My hunch was that the bearishly inclined video would get far more hits than the bullish video, thus confirming that public sentiment, as measured by YouTube viewer behavior, is intensely bearish and thus, for the contrarian, very bullish.

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Bearish:

Title:

Stock Market Crash and Total Economic Collapse by April 2010!

Description:

Total Economic Collapse by April 2010! Bank Holiday, Martial Law and Food Riots Are Imminent! Get Your Food, Guns, Ammo and Shelter Secured NOW!

This video documents the plans for the end of civil government under the collapse of the financial and economic system by
April/May 2010.

This is serious! All evidence DOCUMENTED within!

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BULLISH:

Title:

DOW 15,000 by June 2010! Stocks, Economy to EXPLODE!

Description:

DOW 15,000 by June 2010! Stocks, Economy to EXPLODE as New Technology Revolutionizes Everything! Buy NOW!

We are on the cusp of the most incredible stock market rally and 6-10% GDP growth
rates in the US! New energy and computer technologies will soon be
introduced which will radically change the way we live, work and play!

DOW 15,000 is GUARANTEED by June 2010! All PROOF is documented in this
video!

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RESULTS:

The bearish video outpolled the bullish video by a nearly 5:1 margin. YouTubers are looking for and looking at videos that confirm their predisposition towards an apocalyptic view of the economy and the markets.

It's interesting to note that the bullish video received far more comments, however. The commenters felt compelled to attack the faux-bullish view and were apparently so blinded by passionate opposition to an optimistic outlook that they could not discern the (one would assume obvious) joke in it.

I think I will do this from time to time. When the views and comments flip and scorn and ridicule is heaped upon the notion that markets could ever fall and the economy could ever falter, then I'll be looking to trade from the short side.

Don't you just love old Japanese monster flicks?

Disclosure: No current positions.

By Steve Vincent

http://www.thebullbear.com

The BullBear is the social network for market traders and investors. Here you will find a wide range of tools to discuss, debate, blog, post, chat and otherwise communicate with others who share your interest in the markets.

© 2010 Copyright Steven Vincent - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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