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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Debt

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, May 15, 2017

The Fed’s Massive Debt Bubble in Picture Form / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Graham_Summers

As we’ve been outlining over the last few weeks, the auto-loan industry is increasingly looking like Subprime 2.0: the needle that will pop the credit bubble.

Since 2009, roughly 1/3 of all new auto-loans have been subprime. That in of itself is bad, but we are now discovering that the industry in general has a problem with fraud (shades of the Housing Bubble) as well.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 09, 2017

America Needs a Debt Cut Before a Tax Cut / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

President Donald Trump has finally unveiled his broad blueprint for tax reform. Well, at least let’s call it a sketchy outline of one. It would take the top income tax rate for small businesses from 35% to 15%. Theoretically, a business that makes $500k in taxable income, which had been paying roughly $175k in Federal taxes, would then pay closer to $75k. This means our business in this example, which saved 100k in Federal taxes, would have to grow its taxable income to $1,166.666, or by 133% to provide the government with revenue neutrality.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 05, 2017

US Debt Ceiling Shutdown: What Would Happen if the Government Shut Down For Good? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Jeff_Berwick

It’s that time of year again where the US government acts like it will “shut down” and argues about nonsensical things to try to make people believe they are somehow necessary.

In 2015, Congress suspended the ceiling, which let the government borrow as much as it wanted through March 15, 2017. On that date, the total national debt was $19.846 trillion, and the government can't exceed that limit without approval from Congress.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 17, 2017

US Government Hits Its Debt Target (Ceiling) Again As Trump Has No Plan To Reduce Government / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Jeff_Berwick

Many people fell for Donald Trump’s pre-election promises, but we warned there would be no major changes made and that Trump was an elite insider.

How right we were.

Here was a list of his biggest promises and how he has already backtracked on all of them:

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Forget 3% Growth with This Deficit, US Approaching 150% Debt-to-GDP Ratio / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Studies have shown that when government debt rises above 90% it begins to have an effect on the growth of GDP. That conclusion is a bit controversial in economic circles, as some say the critical level is higher or lower.

Understand, those studies are not examining some theoretical proposition; they are looking at actual debt and growth levels in countries over a long period of history. And the data show that excess debt inhibits growth.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Raising the Ides of March US Debt Ceiling Limit / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: BATR

One of the most played out scenarios in the rarified air of Washington life support is keeping the debt balloon inflating without blowing. Dismissing all the drama from the Kabuki theater that relies upon passing another continuing resolution to raise the debt limit seems to be one of the most reliable predictions that can be made about Congress. Come hell or high water, the borrowing ceiling goes up. So when Mnuchin calls on Congress to raise debt limit as deadline approaches, all seems ready to follow the familiar pattern of kicking the can down the road.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 02, 2017

Trump Avoid Debt Crisis ? “Extremely Unlikely” says Rickards / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: GoldCore

The upcoming March 15 U.S. debt ceiling deadline is something that is being largely ignored by markets and most media for now. Despite it being just 9 trading days away. This will change in the coming days and is one of the many reasons why we are bullish on gold.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

2017’s Real Milestone, Or Why Interest Rates Can Never Go Back To Normal / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Rubino

Forget about NAFTA or OPEC or TPP or crowd size or hand size or any other acronym or stat or concept that obsesses the financial press these days. Only two numbers actually matter.

The first is $20 trillion, which is the level the US federal debt will exceed sometime around June of this year. Here’s the current total as measured by the US Debt Clock:

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Trump Deficits Will Be Huge / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Peter_Schiff

There is much we don't know about how the Trump presidency will play out. Will the Wall get built? Who will pay for it? Will it have at least some fencing? Will repeal and replace happen at exactly the same time? Will Trump throw a ceremonial switch? Will there be a Trump National Golf Course in Sochi? It's anyone's guess. But of one thing we can be fairly certain. President Trump is very likely to preside over the largest expansion of Federal budget deficits in our history. Trump has built his companies with debt and I'm sure he thinks he can do the same with the country. His annual budget deficits are likely going to be huge. This development will make a greater impact on the investment landscape than most on Wall Street can imagine.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Increased Fiscal Spending Could Spell Debt Trouble for 2017 / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Over the past 30 years, America’s economic growth and boom-bust market cycles have been fueled with abundant sources of cheap debt. Whether emerging markets or commodity-rich countries, there’s been no shortage of buyers of US debt.

This has allowed the US—and by extension its consumers—to borrow huge sums of capital to spend on fiscal items or for personal consumption. It was a rather symbiotic relationship from which both parties would benefit, even if longer term prosperity was being jeopardized.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 18, 2016

US DEBT - A Total Disregard For Fiscal Responsibility / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Andy_Sutton

While we aren’t sure the coast is clear – yet – the show must indeed go on. There are topics that need to be discussed. Now with the whole new concept of ‘fake news’ out there for the sole purpose of discrediting anything the establishment wants off the radar we’re going to have to ask you to look at the decade’s worth of work that has been poured into this column and decide if we are fake or not.

For the sake of honesty, it must be pointed out that the mainstream media, in a classic false flag type move, created the whole idea of fake news with its own ridiculous material, then used the whole stunt to say ‘see, we need to be careful because there are lots of phonies out there’. Darn right there are. We’ll allow that there are quite a few shills in the alternative media. Their betrayal will be exposed in time, but for the most part the phonies have three letter network affiliations attached to them.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 16, 2016

Trump Making Deficits and Public Debt Great Again / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Trump’s economic agenda consists of foreign policy, fiscal policy and regulatory policy. We have already commented a bit about Trump’s imprint on geopolitics and uncertainty in the context of the gold market. Now, let’s focus on the domestic policies.

First, Trump wants to reduce regulations hampering business. During the campaign he called for a moratorium on new financial regulations and for a 70 percent reduction in regulations. Importantly, in his 100-day action plan, the president-elect proposed that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated. Deregulation should stimulate economic growth and the stock market, which is not good for the yellow metal.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Trump’s Debt Financial Revolution! / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Trump’s economic plans will increase national debt!

A Ticking time bomb!

Currently, U.S. debt stands at a mammoth $19.8 trillion and will continue to increase under President-elect Trump considering his lenient tax cuts and plans for infrastructure spending:( http://www.usdebtclock.org/).

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Do Larger Federal Budget Deficits Stimulate Spending? Depends On Where The Funding Comes From / Economics / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

I’d like to share a counterintuitive argument against the concept that fiscal deficits and/or infrastructure spending consititute effective economic stimulus. It comes from Paul Kasriel (one of my favorite reads when he was at Northern Trust, before he retired). He always has a way of looking at things from different angles than everybody else does.

Paul notes that the post-election US stock market rally has been due in part to the expectation that the Trump administration will enact stimulative fiscal policies, which in turn will jumpstart growth. But Paul begs to differ on that last point.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Post-election Debt Mathematics / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: DeviantInvestor

The U.S. Presidential election is over. One candidate won, one lost, but the mathematics did not change.

Mathematics of What?

  1. US government debt has grown far more rapidly than GDP for decades. This is unsustainable.
  2. US government revenues increase about 4% per year while the official debt has grown at 9% per year, on average, since 1913. Official debt doubles in eight years regardless of which borrow and spend party and politicians are supposedly running the country and that is unsustainable.
  3. Official debt is currently about $20 trillion. Does $40 trillion in official debt sound plausible in the year 2024?
  4. How about $80 trillion in the year 2032?
  5. Worse, the debt goes astronomical if the financial and political elite choose hyperinflation.
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ElectionOracle

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Donald Truimp the King of Debt Takes the Reins / ElectionOracle / US Debt

By: Peter_Schiff

The election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 provides the best recent precedent for the unexpected triumph of Donald Trump (in my opinion, the other post-war Republican takeovers of the White House -- Ike in '52, Nixon '68, and W. in '00 - did not constitute a real break from the status quo.) As many people expect great changes from Trump, it is worthwhile to look at what the Reagan Revolution actually wrought.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 10, 2016

And Of Course, No One is Talking About the US National Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Rodney_Johnson

I’m beaten down.

Worn out.

Punch drunk.

I’m not moonlighting as a cage fighter. I’m a registered voter in a swing state.

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Politics

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

America is The Poisoned Chalice / Politics / US Debt

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Neither candidate in the US presidential election has had many specifics to offer on their economic ideas and projected policies, and that may be a smart move for both. If only because none of the two has indicated any real understanding of what awaits America as per November 9. And I don’t mean where the stock markets will be tomorrow morning, or the price of gold, though short term volatility is obviously certain.

The November 7 rally on Wall Street made plenty clear where everyone’s bets are placed -on Hillary-, so much so that there’s not much of a rally left if she wins. A Trump win could well see some panic, downward pressure for the dollar and stocks, upward pressure for gold, but there’s no telling how long that would last.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 07, 2016

Thanks to Obamacare, US Government Debt Is Worse Than You Think / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

You’re probably aware that the US budget deficit jumped to $590 billion for fiscal 2016. What you might not know is that US government debt rose by $1.4 trillion last fiscal year. That difference between the deficit and debt increases is a huge number.

What did we spend that additional $800 billion on?

My friends Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Asset Management can answer that question and more. Using current CBO projections and the trend in off-budget debt, Lacy and Van estimate that US government debt could grow by an additional $13 trillion in the next 10 years (by 2025). That would put total debt at $33 trillion and push to 150% debt-to-GDP.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 14, 2016

Our Current Keynesian Nightmare / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

It is not an understatement to say that the economic policy of the United States since 2008 has been purely Keynesian. Interest rates are near zero and the national debt stands at nearly $20 trillion. This is a direct result of applying the policy prescription recommended in Keynes’ General Theory. One day, his book will likely sit next to Karl Marx’s Communist Manifesto as works that generated dangerously false notions of reality with disastrous consequences.

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