Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, August 08, 2011
Stock Market Low Very Close / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-16.
SPX: Long-term trend - The probability that the bull market which started in March 2009 may have ended when the SPX reached 1370 on 5/02/11 has increased, but remains unconfirmed.
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Monday, August 08, 2011
Raging Credit Crisis, Why the Dow Crashed 512 Points On Thursday / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
What caused global markets to plunge on Thursday?
Was it poor economic data in the US; the sudden slowdown in manufacturing, declining consumer spending, shrinking GDP and ongoing troubles in the housing market?
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Stock Markets Panic Crash Continuing, Is the Stealth Bull Market Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Investors and Traders are reeling after a week of plunging stock prices and high market volatility as the worlds major stock indices fought to and then failed to hold support sending the Dow down to an extreme intra-day low Friday of 11,139, before recovering to close up marginally on the day at 11,444, as of writing asia is sharply lower with Dow futures trading over 270 points lower at 11,170 suggesting a continuation of a downtrend early week to below Dow 11,200.
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Sunday, August 07, 2011
Stock Market Broad-based Downturn Not Yet Confirmed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Stock markets normally trend together. So before a broad-based down turn can be identified, most equity indexes need to have rolled over. At present, that event has not occurred. But it is getting close
The NYSE represents a broad collection of North American and global securities. A decline below 7600 for a week (to August 12) would clearly indicate a new down trend has begun (Chart 1). Currently the index has just broken through the 7600 level. More time is needed to confirm a reversal of the bull market has developed.
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Sunday, August 07, 2011
Stock Market Downtrend Could Make a Double Bottom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
In the US, the market recovered from its midday low on friday to close mixed but still posted the worse weekly decline since the early May 2010 flash crash. Europe, however, was not that fortunate and ended the week with their worse weekly decline since November 2008. The SPX/DOW lost 6.5%, and the NDX/NAZ were – 7.6%. Asian markets performed best losing 5.4%. While Europe lost 10.6%, the Commodity equity group lost 8.5%, and the DJ World index dropped 8.8%. We now have six of the fifteen international indices we track in confirmed bear markets, with the rest likely to follow.
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Sunday, August 07, 2011
Stock Market Just Keeps Getting Crazier / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
What can you say about this week, mental and crazy swings, although I am sure there will be some hurting traders after all is said and done.
Last week I left readers with these comments.
Read full article... Read full article..."there is a setup for the bulls as long as 1258SPX holds, although I would prefer not to get that close to those lows, then the bulls have to "show us da money" and buy aggressively or they face losing the support areas we are currently vibrating.
Failure to hold these levels is a big issue for the bulls, as the market can be setting up for a substantial downside move."
Saturday, August 06, 2011
The Center of Gravity Shifts Slowly / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Andrew Schiff writes: To an extent not fully appreciated by the investing public, financial markets are influenced by human emotion just as much as they are by economic data, corporate earnings, and dividend yields. Of all human motivations, fear is perhaps the most powerful. When people get scared, the "fight or flight" instinct forces us to take action.
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Saturday, August 06, 2011
Stock Market Major Buying Opportunity? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
It’s sure been an exceptionally-ugly week in the US stock markets! The threat of Washington defaulting on its debt, worse-than-expected economic data, and the waning of Q2 earnings season conspired to wallop equity prices. The resulting sharp selloff has led to soaring anxiety and fear, traders are rushing for the exits. But these scary conditions are a contrarian’s dream, an ideal time to snatch up bargains.
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Friday, August 05, 2011
Stock Market Sitting On Fine Bull/Bear Line / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
We updated our similar markets study last night. The results are similar to the first pass. As mentioned in the July 18 video (see below), the slope of the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average remains a key differentiator between markets that should have been sold and markets that warranted a more balanced approach to risk management.
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Friday, August 05, 2011
Stock Market Too Early To Buy! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The U.S. stock market topped out three months ago and declined 10% from its April 29 peak.
Wall Street is already telling us it’s time to but again. That’s odd since they never told us there was a time to sell. But then they never do.
Friday, August 05, 2011
Gold Safe Haven Jumps 2% as Stock Market Indices Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Gold is 0.75% higher in dollar terms this morning on safe haven buying after yesterday’s 0.43% fall. Gold is marginally higher against all currencies and is trading at USD 1,659.50 , EUR 1,170.20 , GBP 1,018.30, CHF 1,269.00 per ounce and 130,530.00 JPY.
The surprisingly positive U.S. jobs figure may lead to further short term weakness.
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Friday, August 05, 2011
The Full Blown Correction Is Underway! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Wow! What a ride yesterday! For those of you that read me on a regular basis know that I have been waiting for yesterday since the 1st of July. Let’s face it, “you don’t have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing.” The market has run up so far and so fast that these last few days were long overdue and I said so in July. I didn’t advise readers to take cash and hide it under their mattress but I did advise that they lithely move in and out of positions in an effort to make a few dollars and build up their cash position for the inevitable sell off. In Thursday’s post I conceded that I was wrong that the S&P would hit 30 as I had steadfastly predicted and told everyone to look to buy slowly into the market as it had breached the 200 day moving average on the Dow and on the S&P.
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Friday, August 05, 2011
Stock Market Bulls Anxiety / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The market has stumbled since the beginning of the year.
Three times it has tried to get back above the first High made in February of 1332.60.
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Friday, August 05, 2011
Marc Faber Says We have Not Experienced a Major Stock Market Sell Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Marc Faber was interviewed by Bloomberg Tv earlier today. Basically, he doesn’t think that the current down-leg in markets is a ‘major sell-off’, however he does think that ‘as of today, markets are extremely oversold’. See below for the video & summary.
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Friday, August 05, 2011
Stock Market Moving Toward the September Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Downward pressure in the stock market has been building over the past few weeks. Following the July 12th Market Minute titled "Signs of weakness" and the July 27th Market Minute titled "Risk is rising", world stock indexes plunged today. The percentage of the decline caught many investors, including myself, off guard.
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Friday, August 05, 2011
Where Are The Stock Markets Headed Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Being honest, no one knows. But, using the current road map it appears we may have a little more selling before a decent move higher. Below is the updated 2007 "analog" as compared to the current market. Few interesting points.
The move in 2007 from Point F to the next low was 15.3%. The market then rallied 10% before another leg lower.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
Stock Market Crash, Find Out What's Next for U.S. Markets? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
Stocks Bear, FED about to Make the Mistake of the Decade? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Just as I expected, when the market failed to rally on the debt ceiling resolution, panic set in. As I have been telling people the stock market is not dropping because politicians are debating whether or not to spend more money. They have a long record of raising the debt ceiling whenever it threatened to interfere with their spending spree. So the resolution to the debt ceiling was never in question. We knew from day one that Washington would add another trillion or so to the deficit without any real attempt to cut spending. The market has been in trouble since May because it is starting to price in the next recession.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
What Current Stock Market Decline Has in Common With March’s Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Purely from an objective price perspective, Wednesday morning's plunge in the S&P 500 to new reaction lows at 1230.25 in its emini contract pressed the index beneath the lower Bollinger Band (BBnd) line by 2%. This approximates a similar negative price-to-BBnd relationship seen at the March 16-17 lows.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
Debt Issues Put a Ceiling on Stocks and a Floor Under Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
When politicians, monetary authorities, and other talking-heads refer to dire consequences for "the economy" unless XYZ legislation is passed, I can't help but think that what they are really talking about are dire consequences for stock prices.
Although their last dance-on-the-ceiling failed in this regard, bailing out an insolvent financial system, QE1, QE2, and perhaps some stealth form of QE3, are all clear efforts to keep stock prices artificially inflated.
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