Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - The China Syndrome

Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021 Nov 10, 2021 - 09:01 PM GMT

China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.

Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist

China housing market in distress - CHECK
China's economy slowing - CHECK
US Economy slowing - CHECK
Brewing STAGFLATION - Slowing economy coupled with rising prices - CHECK
Black Swan Event - Crisis at the ports - CHECK
Economic Models busted - Workers refusing to return to work not factored into Economic models - CHECK
REVERSE REPO MARKET - Banks desperate to swap deposit liabilities for T-bills collateral so as to lower capital requirements which has drained the capital markets of over $1 trillion - CHECK
STOCK MARKET BUBBLE - Valuations have lost touch with reality - CHECK
FED TAPERING into a Weakening Economy - Huge Risk of a valuation reset - CHECK
IMPEMDING DOOM! - The relentless march of the Climate Change Mega-trend where all that the worlds leaders did at COP26 was Blah Blah Blah - CHECK!

So yes, Financial Crisis 2.0 continues to brew in the background and will likely come knocking on many investor portfolio door's during 2022 so don't be so eager to FOMO into stocks today to later wish one had missed out on the preceding 6-8 months of price action by Mid 2022. Where whatever one buys and holds today needs to factor in a potential for lower lows than what we saw in October and for some a lot lower lows than that! If one is happy with that then continue to FOMO all the way to new all time highs, for the time being.

The China Syndrome

The Chinese housing market collapse has begun the pain of which will spread through all capital markets amounting to a new Global pandemic, this time the chinese virus is economic and not biological. FINANCIAL CRISIS 2.0 is under way. I got a whiff of electricity in the air many months ago! All the way back to Mid June! Long before Evergrande started disappearing into a debt black hole. The apparent collapse in Chinese house prices has yet to feed through to the official indices, so the magnitude of the crisis unknown at this point in time.

However, momentum in the price of newly built chinese homes is fast slowing from a May 2021 peak of 4.9% and is likely to go negative before years end, with the bubble cities already likely leading the downtrend by probably already turning negative on the year, but actual hard data remains pending.

I know it's very early to say this but we could be looking at the start of a lost economic decade for China.

More on the state of the housing markets in my forthcoming mega-piece that continues to factor in the consequences of what is taking place in China, but the bottom line is the Chinese housing market is going to CRASH! We'll the crash has already begun. Those who ignored the canary in the coal mine warnings of the likes of Evergrande are now starting to pay a heavy price, and the chinese crash WILL impact housing markets across the world as distressed chinese speculators repatriate funds thus pricking many property market bubbles that have been on stimi cheques induced bull runs.

This article is an excerpt from my latest extensive analysis - AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones as Financial Crisis 2.0 Continues Brewing

Contents:
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
The China Syndrome
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
INVESTING LESSON - BUYING VALUE
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space
How Stagflation Effects Stocks
INTEL Bargain - 15.5% Discount Sale
Why Intel stock price dropped 15%?
FACEBOOK - 10% DIscount
IBM - 20% Discount
Amazon - 5% Discount
APPLE 4% Discount
AMD $136 on Route to $200
TSMC - $117
Microsoft $336
Google $2980, PE 28.7, EC 30.
Nvidia Leaves planet Earth - $299, PE of 106
Heads Up on NEW Potential Tech Stocks
AI Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels
AI Stocks Buying Plan B
FREE TRADE the Perfect Stocks and Shares ISA?
FREE SHARE FROM FREETRADE
High Risk Stocks Brief
Crypto's 20% Discount Event
Bitcoin Trend
Palladium Brief

The whole of which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Also access to my recent analysis that maps out what I expect to happen during the next big crypto bull market is only just beginning for most crypto's

Bitcoin NEW All time High is TRIGGER for Future Alt Coins Price Explosion

Contents:

Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend
Crypto Portfolio Current State
The BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING!
Ravencoin to the MOON!
What am I doing?
How to Invest in Crypto's
Bitcoin 2022 Price Target
Ethereum 2022 Price Target
Ravencoin 2022 Price Target
Cardano (ADA) 2022 Price Target
Chainlink 2022 Price Target
Pokadot 2022 Price Target
Solano 2022 Price Target
Litecoin 2022 Price Target
Arweave 2022 Price Target
Stellar Lumens - XLM 2022 Price Target
Eth Classic 2022 Price Target
Vechain 2022 Price Target
EOS 2022 Price Target
Earnings Noise Delivers INTEL And IBM Buy Opps
Facebook and Google Could CRASH 10% Post Earnings Day
High Risk Stocks Swings and Roundabouts

For crypto trading and investing see Binance for 10% discount on trading fees - Discount Code LZ728VLZ

For managing your crypto's see Coinbase

For GPU mining check out Nicehash (affiliate links).

And access to why inflation will be far from transitory, batten down the hatches for what's to come-

Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation

Best Real Terms Asset Price Growth Countries for the Next 10 Years
Worst Real Terms Asset Price Growth Countries for the Next 10 Years
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND
Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation!
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
US Dollar - Stocks Correlation
US Dollar vs Yields vs Dow
Stock Market Conclusion
34th Anniversary of the Greatest Crash in Stock Market History - 1987
Key Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
October Investing Plan
HIGH RISK STOCKS INVEST AND FORGET PORTFOLIO
Can US Save Taiwan From China?

And my extensive analysis of Silver concluding in a trend forecast into Mid 2022.

Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022, CHINOBLE! AI Stocks Buying Plan

UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum
The 2% Inflation SCAM, Millions of Workers take the Red Pill
Silver Previous Forecast Recap
Gold Price Trend Implications for Silver
Silver Supply and Demand
Silver vs US Dollar
Gold / Silver Ratio
SILVER Trend Analysis
Long-term Trend Analysis
Formulating a Trend Forecast
Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022
Silver Investing Strategy
SIL ETF - What About Silver Mining Stocks?
Gold Price Trend Brief
Why the CCP is Living on Borrowed Time and Needs a War
Understanding the Chinese Regime and What it is Capable Of
Guanxi
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction!
AI Stocks Portfolio Investing Strategy
AI Stocks Portfolio Amendments
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
October Investing Plan
HIGH RISK STOCKS INVEST AND FORGET PORTFOLIO
Why China Could Crash Bitcoin / Crypto's!
My Next Analysis

Also my recent extensive analysis on the prospects for the stock market into Mid 2021 see - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022

Contents:

Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
FED Balance Sheet
Weakening Stock Market Breadth
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
FANG Stocks
Margin Debt
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
Dow Annual Percent Change
Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
Short-term Seasonal Trend
US Presidential Cycle
Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
Investing fundamentals
IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
Aukus Ruckus

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My analysis schedule includes:

UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada and China - 65% done
How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.

US Dollar and British Pound analysis
Gold Price Trend Analysis - 10%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Crypto's accumulating analyst.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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