Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, February 09, 2019

Stock Market Prediction – PART I / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we enter the final stage of our market predictions from nearly 5 months ago, we thought it would be a good time to revisit these predictions and to update all of our followers with some timely and, apparently, accurate market data.  We hope that many of you remember out predictions from September 2018 where we called for a 5~8% market decline, followed by a basing market headed into the November 2018 US elections, followed by a deep “Ultimate Low” price rotation before we called for an incredible upside price rally?  The reason it is so important to watch for and understand all of our research is that we are attempting to provide great value and insight to our followers as well as help them protect their open positions from unknown risks.

As a bonus to all of this, we are going to include predictions made by our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system that originated from December 2017 going all the way forward through to the end of May 2019.  Can you imagine what it would be like to have a tool that could show you what is likely to happen going forward 6 months, 12 months or even 24 months into the future?  Well, that is what we have with the ADL predictive price modeling system and we are going to show you how well it has been able to pick the future of the markets for the past 15+ months.  Here we go.

Friday, February 08, 2019

A Major Stocks Bear Market in 2020? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

As the bull market and economic expansion ages, the current economic expansion is soon going to be tied for the longest economic expansion in history. Of course economic expansions and bull markets don’t die of old age – they die when leading economic indicators deteriorate significantly.

We are seeing signs of deterioration now, but they are not significant yet.

Thursday, February 07, 2019

Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Quick Correction Before Another Leg Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks slightly retraced their recent advance yesterday, as investors took some short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index remained above the 61.8% retracement of its September-December sell-off. Is this a topping pattern or just a correction within the uptrend?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.1-0.4% on Wednesday, retracing some of their recent advance, as investors took short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation on Wednesday a week ago and it continued higher. The market is above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% (2,713.88). It has gained 390 points from the late December medium-term low, but it is still around 200 points below the September 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4% on Wednesday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,750-2,760, marked by some previous local highs. The resistance level is also at 2,800, marked by the early December local high. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,700-2,710, marked by the previous resistance level. The support level is also at 2,650.

Thursday, February 07, 2019

Corporate Earnings Growth is Falling and Turning Negative. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings

By: Troy_Bombardia

As the stock market rallies higher and is on the verge of breaking out above its 200 day moving average, the outlook for Q1 2019 corporate earnings growth is falling. Is this bad news for the stock market?

Thursday, February 07, 2019

The Global Economy Has Run Off a Cliff… and the Stock Markets Know It / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Stocks continue to live in la la land.

While the media and investment herd celebrate a V-shaped stock recovery based on the Fed admitting things are far worse than previously known, more and more signals are appearing that the global economy has run off a cliff.

Germany and France are bordering on recession. Italy is definitively already in recession. Japan is on the verge of another contraction. And China is facing a systemic collapse (real GDP growth is 2%, not the ridiculous 6% they claim).

Wednesday, February 06, 2019

Higher Interest Rates & Market Risks Require Active, Careful Investment Management / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins me for a terrific conversation about gold, the Fed, stocks and the dollar. And find out why he believes investors will soon realize that it DOES matter again about where you put your money. Don’t miss my interview with Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update.

Gold and silver markets closed out the month of January on a high note as the Federal Reserve signaled it would back off on further rate hikes.

On Wednesday, Fed policymakers voted unanimously to leave the central bank’s benchmark interest rate unchanged. Fed chairman Jerome Powell cited recent weakness in economic growth forecasts.

Tuesday, February 05, 2019

This Stock Market Rally is Crazy, It Can’t Keep Going On! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P is now almost at its 200 day moving average. After a very rapid decline in December 2018, the stock market is making an equally rapid rally right now. Extremes happen in both directions.

This has been a V shaped recovery.

Tuesday, February 05, 2019

A Crash is Coming - Bonds Yields, Oil and Credit Are Rolling Over / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Let’s cut through the nonsense.

The only reason that stocks are rallying is because investors are hoping the Fed has reinstated its policy of inflating stocks…

However, HOPE is very different from reality. And the Fed hinting at halting its rate hikes and possibly altering the schedule of QT is VERY different from cutting rates and engaging in QE.

Put simply, a Fed that says it might be less hawkish is not a dovish Fed. And the markets know it, though stocks always “get it last.”

Tuesday, February 05, 2019

Australia Stock Market to Enter a Very Sad Period - Update / Stock-Markets / Austrailia

By: readtheticker

The ASX has held up since 2009, and it has done this ugly!

Previous Posts
Australia to enter a very sad period
Power of Mean Reversion with the Aussie ASX

The video below explains the main fundamentals concerning the Australian equity and currency markets.

On a possible US or World recession.

Monday, February 04, 2019

Stocks Going Sideways, Flat Correction or Some Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks were mixed on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index remained above the 2,700 mark. So will the uptrend continue? Or is this a topping pattern ahead of a downward reversal?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.3% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. So volatility was relatively small despite the monthly jobs data release. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation on Wednesday and it continued slightly higher in the late last week. The market is now at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% (2,713.88). It has gained 370 points from the late December medium-term low, but it is still around 235 points below the September 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3% on Friday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,710-2,720, marked by the mentioned 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and Friday's daily high. The resistance level is also at 2,750-2,760. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,650, marked by the recent fluctuations. The support level is also at 2,615-2,625, marked by the short-term local lows.

Monday, February 04, 2019

Stock Market Fib Resistance Warning to Err on Side of Caution / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The S&P 500 (SPX) is right at a price zone pointing more towards a meaningful give-back in the short-term.

This zone of resistance can be viewed through the Fibonacci price and time relationships on the daily SPX chart.

As the chart shows, as of Friday's close, the SPX resided approximately 16% above its late December lows, amounting to an exact 62% Fibonacci recovery of the entire prior decline from the Sep 21 all-time-high at 2940.91 to the Dec 26 low at 2346.58.

Monday, February 04, 2019

Stock Market Decision Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Long-term trend resuming?

Intermediate trend – Countertrend may be over.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, February 04, 2019

Is The Stock Market Manic? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

VIX challenged Long-term support at 16.39, closing beneath it on Friday.  Primary Cycle [C] has been delayed another week.  While investors are heaving a sigh of relief, the Wave structure and Cycles suggest a strong reversal may be imminent.

Sunday, February 03, 2019

Is the Stock Market Ever Going to Pullback? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

By now everyone is aware that these “crash & rally” patterns are usually followed by a pullback or retest. Most of these pullbacks/retests occur once the S&P has reached its 50% retracement. But with the S&P now having retraced 60% of its Q4 2018 decline, many traders are doubting whether or not the S&P will pullback/retest at all, or if it’s going straight to new all time highs.

Thursday, January 31, 2019

US Stock Market Recovery Hinges On The Next Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The research team, at The Technical Trades Ltd., has been calling this market move quite accurately.  We made predictions on September 17, 2018, that called for a -5~8% downside market rotation, followed by price support just before the November 2018 US elections.  After that, we called for a deep “Ultimate Low” price rotation to setup followed by a strong price rally.  Even though we under-estimated the ultimate low-price rotation which was much deeper, our trend predictions from 120 days earlier are playing out quite accurately.

Currently, we are writing this message to all our followers to inform them that the Feb 1 Jobs report, as well as other critical earnings and economic data, are the “unknown factors” that have stalled this upside market move.  At this time, it is our belief that capital has already started re-entering the US stock market and that a good portion of these investors are waiting for further evidence that a resurgence of price appreciation will continue without any new crisis events unfolding.  Our September 17, 2018 analysis suggested that the US markets would find support after a “revaluation event” and continue an upward price bias.  As this point, we believe we have reached the “momentum launchpad”.

Thursday, January 31, 2019

The Macro Economy is Weakening. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

Not much has changed with the S&P 500 hovering around its 50% retracement. We will have a flood of macro data over the next few weeks to digest now that the government shutdown is over. This is very important when it comes to understanding whether or not this bull market will have 1 last leg up or not.

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Will Stocks Go Nowhere Over the Next 10 Years? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market has held up well during this earnings season. Now that earnings season is over, many traders are looking for a pullback/retest. Overall, the statistical evidence for a pullback/retest remains strong and convincing.

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Is S&P 500 Ready to Make All-Time High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: ElliottWaveForecast

S&P 500 formed a significant high at 2947 on Sept 21, 2018 after a 342% rally in 10 years. During the entire rally from year 2009 low, there was no major correction in the Index, that is until last year. In less than 3 months, the Index has dropped 21.4% from the peak. The Index bottomed at 2316.75 on December 26, 2018.  It has now retraced more than 50% of the decline.

Is the bull market ready to resume higher? Not so fast. In the following chart, we will show how the Index can face a major resistance in coming days / weeks. The important key pivot remains last year’s high at 2947. As far as this level holds, the Index can still extend lower to break below Dec 26, 2018 low at 2316.75 or pullback in 3 waves at least.

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Stock Market Brief - The Suicide of Corporate America / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Christopher_Quigley

One of the main consequences of Quantitative Easing (QE), which many folk are unaware of, is the magnitude of cheap money that has been used to fund corporate share buybacks. From 2007 to 2018 S & P 500 companies have ploughed nearly 6 trillion dollars into such activity. In the main, these companies have borrowed heavily to do so.

In my opinion this short sighted policy is suicidal and could potentially lead to severe deflation in the next recession. Let me explain. Under QE interest rates were artificially low, in fact near zero. The new FED chairman “Jay” Powell has indicated that its policy going forward is to raise rates to a “neutral” level of approx 3%. This will have a major negative draw on corporate profits and will contribute greatly to economic contraction. Given the run up in share prices that we have experienced since this bull market commenced in March 2009, it is readily accepted that the S & P 500 could fall by at least 50% when the inevitable recession eventually materializes. This means that corporate balance sheets are going to take trillions of dollars of losses on these share buybacks. For example given the near halving of Apple’s share price since October 2018 the company is now nursing a 9 billion dollar share buyback loss. What a fiasco in corporate governance.

Monday, January 28, 2019

Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) at pivotal juncture / Stock-Markets / Saudi Arabia

By: MarketsToday

As of yesterday’s (Sunday) 8,528.30 trend high, the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) has rocketed over 12% in 25 trading days, when counting from the swing low of 7,589.23 on December 23. A long-term bullish trend continuation signal was triggered on the move as the day’s close was at 8,509.43, just above the most recent peak of 8,502.92 from July 2018. Further, yesterday’s close was the highest daily closing price since August 2015.