Category: Stock Market 2025
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Stock Market Bubble 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So that there is no confusion stocks are very over valued right now with the S&P trading on a PE of 22,7, even the Fed gets this as indicated in the November Financial Stability Report.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: A Long-Term Bear Market Is Simply Impossible Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Avi_Gilburt
In a number of past articles, I have tried to prepare those reading my analysis for the strong probability that we can see a long-term bear market. I have outlined the many reasons supporting my perspective, and have provided a few supporting charts in various prior public articles.
But, I will tell you that the pushback I have seen that this is even “possible” is much greater than I had expected. Many commenters have provided one reason after another as to not only why it is not likely, but, in their minds, it is simply not even possible. While I have addressed all their reasons in various prior articles, I doubt they really care. Too many investors are seemingly going through their investing careers while donning blinders.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
A Stock Market Chart That’s Out of This World / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: EWI
Valuations Are at the Furthest Edge of the Financial Solar System
By Robert Prechter, excerpted from the January 2025 Elliott Wave Theorist.
Figure 1 updates our history of year-end valuations for stocks of S&P companies on two bases: price to book value (Y axis) and dividend yield (X axis). I thought the year-end 2021 overvaluation would never be surpassed. But as you can see, the year-end 2024 reading is both higher and further to the right. It is the highest multiple ever recorded for S&P Industrials’ price to book value and the fifth-lowest level for the S&P Composite’s dividend yield, the four lower readings all occurring in 1998-2001.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
S&P 500: Dangerous Fragility Near Record High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Submissions
Owen Williams writes: In one of the strongest bull markets in history, the S&P 500 hit 57 record closing highs in 2024 after a stunning initial move higher off the Q4 2023 lows. Many pundits have been skeptical of the equity bull market for some time. Initially, with the inverted Treasury yield curve, economists had been forecasting a recession in 2024. Then came the artificial intelligence (AI) euphoria, with a market carried higher by only a handful of stocks dubbed “the Magnificent Seven”. Most recently, the skeptics have pointed to the historically rich equity valuations. None of these concerns have mattered. Narratives derive markets, and the AI revolution and concomitant productivity gains, perhaps coupled with the prospects for a stronger U.S. economy under Trump, have seriously taken hold of investors’ spirits. When it seems that everyone is singing from the same song sheet, we plug our ears and look objectively at the evidence that we see. Yes, equity valuations are historically very stretched and fund manager positioning is very aggressive. But these are not useful timing indicators as both have been true for most of 2024. The fragility we see is in various market indicators that may be suggesting that the bull run, at least temporarily, is ready for some corrective price action. In this article we present the internal weaknesses that our models are detecting in the U.S. equity markets. While the past never repeats itself exactly, many of the setups in our market indicators today look eerily similar to those witnessed prior to other major equity sell-offs.
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Sunday, February 02, 2025
President Black Swan Slithers into the Year of the Snake, Chaos Rules! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Did you enjoy Monday's black swan panic event that caught everyone by surprise? MSM needed a reason to explain why to it's audience and so plucked deepseek as a likely reason for the sell off in stocks and crypto's despite the R1 model having been released a week earlier!
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Sunday, January 12, 2025
It's Five Nights at Freddy's Again! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief as sent to Patrons Sunday 12th.
Early 2025 stock market rally evaporates triggering much doom and gloom though the S&P is barely changed on the start of the year! We have got pretty much a repeat of a year ago i.e. Santa rally fail, first five days down, that got folk into a bit of panic as the likes of Hirsch had talked up his incoming Trifecta SELL Signal on a Down January which prompted me to do the following Five Nights at Freddy's article -
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Sunday, January 05, 2025
Squid Game Stock Market 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The S&P ends 2024 at 5881 up an epic 23% on the year virtually a repeat of the +24% for 2023, and down 2.75% on the month which is contrary to the seasonal pattern for Decembers. In fact 2024 has been a year of contrary to seasonal price trends, i.e. April was down when it should have been Up, September was Up when it should have been Down and now December is down when it should have been Up, so Investing in the stock market during 2024 was a bit like playing Squid Game, every investor thinks they know with certainty that they will win with their perfect buys but most got killed or were left on the sidelines as the watched the market do the opposite of what they were expecting it to do, the key lesson being to be positioned for the market to either go up or down whilst maintaining exposure to the BULL MARKET as despite all of the fear and fomo the stock market managed to snake it's way to an epic gain of 23% for the year! What more could investors have asked for from 2024? The fact that despite this many are still disappointed speaks volumes of how difficult investing actually is practice vs folk thinking it will be easy money, if you find yourself disappointed despite a 23% gain then what are you going to be like during a down year?
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just so that we are all reading from the same page - A Correction is a Correction is a Correction, 5500 vs 5750 is not even 5%! Primary focus is to remain exposed to the AI mega-trend stocks and seek opps to accumulate as they come along, look at what happened to Chinese AI tech stocks!
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Statistically 2025 is expected to be the stronger of 2022,2023 and 2024, which again is supportive of the thesis that 2025 will see a gain of between 20% and 30% and probably nearer to 30%, i.e. a rip the face of the bears rally where those sat on the sidelines throw caution to the wind and FOMO in propelling the S&P well beyond 7000 towards 8000
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