Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, September 15, 2014
Why Goldman Sachs is Wrong on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs has recently reiterated its negative view on gold, which it has held for the past year. However, it is now doubling down on this view and advising clients to actually go short the metal. Jeff Currie, head of commodity research at Goldman noted "Our target is really driven by the view that we think that the Fed will ultimately be the dominate force here and put more downward pressure [on prices]".
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Monday, September 15, 2014
Marc Faber - “I Want To Be Diversified, I Want To Own Some Gold” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Veteran investor Marc Faber, author of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, reiterated the need for gold in a diversified portfolio when interviewed last week on CNBC.
Faber, a resident of Thailand, is an advocate of gold storage in Singapore, and believes that a diversified portfolio will help protect against future market corrections which he believes are on the horizon.
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Monday, September 15, 2014
Will The Swiss Vote to Get Their Gold Back? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
On November 30th, voters in Switzerland will head to the polls to vote in a referendum on gold. On the ballot is a measure to prohibit the Swiss National Bank (SNB) from further gold sales, to repatriate Swiss-owned gold to Switzerland, and to mandate that gold make up at least 20 percent of the SNB's assets. Arising from popular sentiment similar to movements in the United States, Germany, and the Netherlands, this referendum is an attempt to bring more oversight and accountability to the SNB, Switzerland's central bank.
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Monday, September 15, 2014
Analysis And Price Projection Of The Uranium Market / Commodities / Uranium
Dr. Volkmar Hable writes: I travel a lot for the purpose of identifying new investment opportunities. In that process earlier this year I was offered by the governments of two countries Uranium exploration concessions of outstanding quality and location, and was told that no one would be interested in Uranium in these days. This caught my attention and we started to investigate. And sure enough, as a matter of fact, in these days it seems to be extremely easy to pick up Uranium concessions anywhere between Greenland and South-Africa.
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Sunday, September 14, 2014
Two Strikes Against Light Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
Following the August 26, 2014 Market Minute titled "WTIC prices break down", Light crude oil prices has fallen 5.9% since late August.
Abundant supply from the U.S. and the Middle East plus a rising U.S. dollar has sent oil prices down to the first support level at $92.
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Friday, September 12, 2014
Last Stand Approaching for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold ended its 10-year bull market in 2011 when it topped out at $1,900 an ounce. It was a spectacular run from $250 an ounce in 2001.
Since then it rallied back several times only to have those rallies fail at lower highs.
Its most recent rally attempt, beginning in January, looked to have a better chance of succeeding. On the technical side, gold was oversold beneath its important 30-week m.a. again, and it was rising from a frequently bullish double-bottom formation.
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Friday, September 12, 2014
Is Geothermal Power About to Become The Next Great Battleground Over Fracking? / Commodities / Renewable Energy
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Of all the renewable energy sources, geothermal power remains by far the smallest.
But that may not prevent it from becoming the next energy “hot potato.”
A good example of its potential can be found in Iceland, where the entire country runs on geothermal power. Of course, it does help to have a string of active volcanoes to tap.
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Friday, September 12, 2014
Strong U.S. Dollar Undermines Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Precious metals have had to endure a week of gathering dollar strength, which is at least partly the result of problems specific to the euro, yen and sterling. The result is gold has fallen a further $30 over the week, and silver by about $0.70c. The first chart is of gold and open interest on Comex.
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Friday, September 12, 2014
Will The Real Silver Commercials Stand Up? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
One of the more persistent flaws in the world's most important price discovery mechanism comes down to a simple question.How did it come to pass that banks were given access to the commercial category of traders?
It's a given that the market is rigged to high heaven. And it’s completely obvious by now how it is accomplished. They only folks left in denial about it have a direct incentive for ignoring it - usually an obvious one.
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Thursday, September 11, 2014
China Holds “Gold Congress” - Positioning Itself As Global Gold Hub / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The China Gold Congress is currently in full flight in Beijing. The three day Congress is China’s biggest gold industry event of the year, drawing in participants from across the Chinese and international gold sectors including central banks, mining companies, bullion banks and refiners.
The event, co-sponsored by the World Gold Council (WGC) and the China Gold Association, showcases China’s gold industry and acts as a focus point for what is now the world’s largest gold market in terms of demand and product innovation.
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Thursday, September 11, 2014
Fire Ice Could be Energy's Magic Bullet or a Planet-killing Catastrophe / Commodities / Energy Resources
Dr. Kent Moors writes: During the height of the Deepwater Horizon tragedy four years ago, I had my graduate students monitor the flow of oil from the sunken platform in the Gulf of Mexico.
Most of their work involved rather straightforward calculations based on undersea camera footage.
But from time to time, flimsy protoplasmic-like structures would float across the screen. The students called them "ghosts."
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Thursday, September 11, 2014
A Supply Crunch Points to Higher Uranium Prices / Commodities / Uranium
Dr. Kent Moors writes: With nuclear power bouncing back worldwide, and the number of global uranium mines declining, the signs are building that uranium prices are poised to head higher.
After stabilizing under $30 per pound, prices have begun to rebound, posting their largest gain in more than 30 months. Since August 4, the cost of uranium has climbed by 13.91%.
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Thursday, September 11, 2014
Gold, Crude Oil and U.S Dollar Link Intensifies / Commodities / Crude Oil
On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a report, which indicated that central bank is growing closer to raise interest rates. As a result, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, climbed to a 14-month high. Since then, ongoing expectations that U.S. interest rates will be rise sooner rather than later have been supportive for the U.S. dollar, making crude oil and gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
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Wednesday, September 10, 2014
China Food Crisis ? / Commodities / China
China is having the worst drought in half a century, which will result in a devastating harvest.
Or: China is going to have a record crop this year.
Those are the two stories coming out of China in just a two-week time span.
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Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Gold Bugs Shifting Sentiment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Warning… Condescension ensues… NFTRH 307’s opening segment, dated 9.7.14:
From a post on the HUI at the site last week:
“There are worse things that could happen than filling a gap and scattering the wrong kind of gold bugs back out. Then it would be up to the longer-term charts to do the heavy lifting if the daily does fulfill this downside potential.”
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Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Russia And Iran Put Oil-For-Goods Deals Into Motion / Commodities / Crude Oil
Russia-Iran Oil-for-Goods Contracts
Representatives of the Russian and Iranian governments met in Tehran yesterday for the 11th meeting of the Iran-Russian Trade Council, where details of a ground breaking oil-for-goods swap between the two heavily sanctioned countries were revealed.
With both countries now sanctioned by the West, Russia and Iran have been in extensive negotiations on how to facilitate Iranian oil exports without breaching the UN Security Council nuclear deal that was agreed between Iran, Germany and the five UN Council permanent last January.
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Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Strong U.S. Dollar Weakens September Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Last week I wrote about the historic correlation between the month of September and the strength of gold. Now it appears that this September might be shaping up as one not to remember but forget.
Based on data reaching back to 1969, gold rises 2.1 percent on average in September. Ten days into this year's month, however, the precious metal has lost 2.6 percent, slipping from $1,288 to $1,254.
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Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Crude Oil Price Downtrend Continues / Commodities / Crude Oil
Crude Oil fell to a new low on Monday so we see prices now already in fifth wave and labeled wave (iv) as a flat correction. As such price may go even lower by the end of the week, to 90.00 area where we will be looking for some evidences of a low as this psychological level may turn into a technical support.
this bearish move was already anticipated on our past updates
Tuesday, September 09, 2014
The Price Of Gold And The Art Of War Part I / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by Sun Tzu, The Art of War, Fifth century BC
Only fools and the ideologically impaired believe that today’s capital markets are free. In free markets, prices are determined by supply and demand. In capital markets, supply and demand considerations are subordinated to capitalism’s increasingly dysfunctional monetary menses, i.e. credit flows, emanating from central banks. Of all markets, today’s gold markets are the least free.
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Tuesday, September 09, 2014
Macro Factors Dominating Gold Price As US Dollar Outweighs Physical Demand And Investor Flows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
With gold trading in a narrow range below $1,300 and remaining relatively weak, it is worth pausing at this juncture to look at the combination of factors that are affecting its price formation.
A current snapshot of the world gold market and its near term outlook can be gauged by examining four sets of influences on the market, namely the macro/geopolitical environment, investment demand flows, physical demand in the major markets (using India as an example), and finally the technical picture.
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