Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, May 05, 2017

Gold Stocks and Silver Nearing Relief Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The past few weeks have been rough for precious metals. Gold had climbed all the way to $1297/oz but the other parts of the sector (Silver and the gold stocks) failed to confirm the move. They have since fallen off a cliff. Over the past 14 days, GDX has lost 15% while GDXJ has declined 20%. Silver during that span has declined every day. Yes, Silver has declined 14 consecutive days. Gold still has some “catching down” to do (with the rest of the sector) but the gold stocks and Silver are oversold and nearing a bounce.

Friday, May 05, 2017

Gold Price Cycle Low Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

Seems everyone (me included) is trying to spot when the next Intermediate Low in Gold and PMs will be. Again, one of the things I am looking for is a failed short term Trading Cycle to confirm the move into the next Intermediate Low.

Well we now have Failed Trading Cycles in Silver and two Failed Cycles in GDX and GDXJ. Silver and the GDXJ are very oversold here so could we be nearing an Intermediate Bottom (RSI, MACD and Slow Sto are all at or approaching ICL levels)?  But Gold is the Cycle driver and the Gold chart is giving me some issues (see my next section).

Friday, May 05, 2017

Nervous Breakdowns in the Gold and Silver Precious Metals Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

The internet is slower than molasses in January and hard to annotate charts, but I got a few updated. Below is the combo chart for the PM complex we’ve been following which shows the dominate pattern being the triangle consolidation pattern. Just before I left the price action was breaking out below the bottom rail and I was looking for a possible backtest to the underside to take one last position. Some had a complete backtest but others didn’t. If you were lucky enough to get that last position great job.

Friday, May 05, 2017

Gold Stocks Huey Looking Haggard These Days, But… / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

HUI is torn, frayed and downright bearish. What’s more, it’s been bearish since it started to drop from the SMA 200 failure point.

In NFTRH, we managed bounce #1 (off the Dec. low) as just that, a bounce. Then we managed bounce #2 as just that, a bounce. It doesn’t take a trained eye to see why; only a rise above the October high would have set an uptrend for bounce #1 and a rise above the February high would have set an uptrend for bounce #2.

Friday, May 05, 2017

Gold Miner Stocks, Metal Proxies and Gold Bugs in Hades ? or just close / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Denali_Guide

In a place called PURGATORY, hundreds of Gold Miner Stocks, and thousands of GoldBugz find themselves stranded today as the bodies of JNUG and GDXJ twist in the wind, as they wait to be cut down from the gallows of the GDX / GDXJ RE-Balance.

Thursday, May 04, 2017

Sign of Gold and Silver Stocks Outperformance / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Precious metals moved visibly lower yesterday, but we can’t say the same about gold and silver mining stocks. The miners refused to follow the metals lower and the question is if this is a sign of a local (or major) bottom.

In our opinion, it’s too early to say so. Miners did outperform yesterday, but due to the recent major technical development (namely, the breakdown below the key long-term support line), the implications are not necessarily bullish.

Thursday, May 04, 2017

Silver Bullion On Sale After 10.6% Fall In Two Weeks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Silver down for eleven consecutive days to $16.80/oz
– Further weakness possible and support at $15.73/oz
– Never catch a falling knife – dollar cost average
– Silver buyers love manipulative futures selling
– Thank you ‘Gold and Silver Cartel’ !

Wednesday, May 03, 2017

DOE Uranium Reduction Should Help Boost Market / Commodities / Uranium

By: The_Energy_Report

Department of Energy Secretary Rick Perry issued a determination that reduces the amount of uranium the department can transfer in 2017 and 2018; the reduction should give a boost to uranium producers.

Every two years the Secretary of Energy is required to determine the amount of uranium allowed to be transferred to support the clean-up work at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Ohio. On April 26, Secretary of Energy Rick Perry released a determination to permit transfers of 1,200 metric tons of uranium (1,200 MTU) per year, down from 1,600 MTU.

Tuesday, May 02, 2017

Hi Yo Silver! Sort Of… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Kelsey_Williams

In January, 1980 silver peaked at close to $50.00 per ounce and gold hit its high point of approximately $850.00 per ounce. Thirty-one years later, in 2011, both metals again reached lofty levels.

For gold, the new high point was $1900.00 per ounce.  For silver, the number was $50.00 per ounce; again.

Six years later, as of this writing, gold is priced at $1260.00 per ounce. Silver is at $17.00 per ounce and change.

Monday, May 01, 2017

Cocoa Commodity Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Cocoa

By: Austin_Galt

I last analysed the cocoa price in March 2015 in a report titled Cocoa Technical Outlook. Since then price has traded exactly as outlined. Below is the yearly chart from that analysis.

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Gold Hostage to Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has had a wild ride since Trump's surprise election win in early November.  This metal first plunged then surged, ultimately making little headway. It wasn't until mid-April that gold regained its pre-election levels. This overall lackluster gold action was confounding given all the mounting uncertainties.  But it once again highlights that gold investment demand is often hostage to the US stock markets' fortunes.

Before the election, gold surged every time Trump appeared to advance in the polls. Trump had a well-earned reputation as a loose cannon, implying far greater unpredictability. Increasing prospects of a Trump victory drove gold to $1305 the Friday before the election. But that weekend the FBI cleared Clinton again on her classified-e-mail front. So gold sold off sharply on rising odds Clinton would indeed win.

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Warren Buffett Hates Gold… But Here’s Five Reasons You Need To Own It / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Stephen McBride : In a 1998 speech at Harvard, legendary investor Warren Buffett shared his thoughts on gold:

“[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again, and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”

Buffett is correct—gold doesn’t produce earnings or pay dividends. There are, however, some good reasons gold should be an essential part of every investor’s portfolio.

Friday, April 28, 2017

Fed's Third Inetrest Rate Hike and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This time, the U.S. central bank did not make us wait too long for the next hike. Just three months after the hike in December, the Fed moved interest rates up again. Although the pace of the current tightening cycle is extremely gradual, the U.S. central bank is consistently moving away from the zero interest rate policy. The chart below shows the current level of the effective federal funds rate after all three hikes.

Friday, April 28, 2017

Looking for Epic Signs? Enter Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In yesterday's alert we wrote that the reversal in the precious metals market should once again not be taken at its face value and that one should not overreact based on it as the size of the potential rally was limited. Well, it turned out that "limited rally" was an euphemism for a decline. Gold, silver and mining stocks declined once again despite the previous day's reversal and gold stocks confirmed the breakdown below the key support line. The implications are strongly bearish. However, there's something ever more bearish and much more profound.

Friday, April 28, 2017

BOOM! Bitcoin Price Blasts To New All Time High! / Commodities / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

Having followed bitcoin since it was $3 in 2011 we have had many, many “all time high” celebrations.

Breaking $10 was a small celebration. Breaking $100 had us cheering and buying a round of drinks at the bar. And, when it broke $1,000, TDV subscribers were heard around the world buying sports cars and yachts.

But with bitcoin breaking above $1,325.00 to hit an all time high of $1,331.31 on CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI), this is a memorable one.

Friday, April 28, 2017

Misunderstanding GDXJ: Why It’s Actually Great News For Junior Miners / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017

By: John_Rubino

Something extraordinarily good for junior precious metals miners just happened. But for some reason it’s being misinterpreted as a bad thing. Here’s the general story:

Thursday, April 27, 2017

This is the Bottom in The Gold Miners - GDX and GDXJ / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017

By: Submissions

Zach writes: This is the bottom in gold mining ETFs GDX and GDXJ. How can I say that so confidently, I hear you ask?

The charts are talking to us...Here goes...

1. We are seeing bottoming tails on the Daily chart of both GDX and GDXJ, which indicates a bottom - in conjunction with other factors.

2. We are into 75% fib levels, which are very reliable levels of support in the case of the gold miners.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Gold and Silver in a Dangerous World / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Submissions

Peter Ginelli writes: Since the inauguration of President Trump, it appears that nearly every morning we wake up to a new major political crisis at home and around the globe. From Syria to North Korea, Russia, Iran, ISIS and beyond, the world has become an increasingly dangerous place to live or invest in.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

An Even More Bullish Wave Count for GOLD! - Daily-Elliott-wave-analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

USDJPY

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: BOJ Outlook Report, BOJ Policy Rate, BOJ Press Conference. Household Spending y/y. USD: Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Pending Home Sales m/m. 

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

This Event Could Lead To A Collapse Of The Euro… And Send Gold Skyrocketing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Stephen McBride : The first round of the French presidential election takes place this Sunday, April 23… and the future of the European Union depends on the outcome.

Establishment candidate Emanuel Macron leads in the polls, but Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right Front National is trailing him by only 1%. However, the real story of the past month has been the rise of far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon.