Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, April 20, 2017
An In Depth Look at the Precious Metals Complex / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Rambus_Chartology
Before we look at todays charts I would like to thank Sir Plunger for putting on the short oil trade this week while I was recovering from surgery. You won't find a more through and in depth look at oil than what Sir Plunger offered. And wouldn't you know it his timing as usual was impeccable. Oil dropped almost 4% today.
Now lets turn our attention to the sector which many members have a love hate relationship with.
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Thursday, April 20, 2017
Toward the New Gold-en Era / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Dan_Stinson
In the past half a decade, gold prices were fueled by negative rates. Now gold is driven by geopolitical risks, efforts at gold-backed trade and local prices.
Not so long ago, the conventional wisdom was that the continued recovery of the US economy would support rate hikes and thus the strengthening of the US dollar, which would pave way for gold’s further decline.
Thursday, April 20, 2017
3 Types Of Life-Changing Crisis That Make You Wish You Had Some Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
Stephen McBride : On November 8, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to the airwaves to declare that Rs500 and Rs1,000 banknotes—which made up 86% of the currency in circulation—would be invalid effective from midnight. While the policy created chaos at banks, the real story lies elsewhere.
When rumors of a ban on gold spread two weeks later, Indians began rioting. To quell the panic, the Finance Ministry was forced to release a statement saying there was “no plan to restrict gold holdings.”
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Thursday, April 20, 2017
The Last Time This Happened, Gold Rallied 20% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
John Grandits : With much of the price action in gold driven by sentiment and technical analysis, you should keep an eye on the broader trends, even if you consider yourself a buy-and-hold investor.
Traders use technical analysis to predict future market moves based on recent price action. Most of it sounds complicated, but it really boils down to simple math.
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Thursday, April 20, 2017
2 Choke Points That Threaten Oil Trade Between Persian Gulf And East Asia / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The flow of international trade has always been subject to geopolitical risk and conflicts. At all stages of the supply chain, trade inherently faces challenges posed by the geopolitical realities along a given route.
Some routes are more perilous and harder to navigate than others. One such trade route is the maritime path for transporting oil from Persian Gulf exporters to East Asian consumers. This route faces two major choke points that are unavoidable given geographic constraints.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Gold’s Next Downside Target Is Around $700… Even if It Breaks Up First / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Harry_Dent
Many analysts have been so excited that gold broke to new highs, above $1,262, in late February.I was excited as well, but for a different reason.
I’d forecast that gold could bounce back just above the July 2016 highs of $1,373, to around $1,400 or $1,450.
And ANY bounce, no matter how high it went, would be a good place to get rid of any gold you’re still holding.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Silver Production Has “Huge Decline” In 2nd Largest Producer Peru / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– Silver production sees “huge decline” in Peru
– Production -12% in one month in 2nd largest producer
– Silver decline is due to ‘exhaustion of reserves’ in Peru
– GFMS recognise that ‘Peak Silver’ was reached in 2015
– Global silver market had large net supply deficit in 2016
– Silver rallied 13.5% in Q1 in 2017
– Base metal production accounts for 56% of silver mining
– Base metal demand under threat from global economy
– Own financial insurance of silver coins and bars
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Silver Price Likely To Rise In A Concentrated Manner / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Hubert_Moolman
The long-term view of silver is extremely bullish, given that it is one of the most undervalued metals, today. It is evident that ideal economic conditions are present, for silver to rise for many years to come:
- All-time low interest rates, that are about to rise
- Over-valued stock markets
- Fragile international monetary system that is debt-laden to the full.
Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Plungers Big Trade - The Oil Short / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Plunger
The big trade of this year positions oneself for the upcoming US recession. In speculating and investing if one can get the main concept right everything else falls into place. Various trades will branch off from this theme. The trade is not priced into the market at all since we are betting against the accepted narrative. We can use various proxies to play the trade, as just about anything economically sensitive may qualify. Base metal producers, car companies, sub prime financiers, retail establishments, the list goes on. The main vehicle I have chosen to execute the trade is the oil price. I have chosen this because both fundamentals and technicals indicate to me it is over priced and due for a fall. It trades deep and has a record of falling under distressed economic conditions.
"All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream." - Edger Allan Poe
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
What Bullish Sentiment Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a reversal in the oil markets and outlines his strategy.
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Monday, April 17, 2017
How Investors Can Buy Gold At A 6% Discount Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
Stephen McBride : Since the election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 13% while the S&P 500 is up 11%. One victim of the move into risk assets was gold, which plunged over 13% in the weeks following the election.
Although gold prices have since recovered some of their losses, the yellow metal’s drop has created a buying opportunity for those wanting to add bullion to their portfolios.
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Monday, April 17, 2017
History of the Post WWII Crude Oil Price From a Technical Perspective / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Plunger
This is part I of a 3-part series introducing Plunger's "Trade of the Year". This section gives a review of the oil price from 1946 to present explaining the essential forces which powered its price through various bull and bear markets. It explains how we ended up where we are today in the oil market. Part II will explore the macro forces driving today's economy which lays the groundwork for introducing my trade of the year in part III.
To acquire a broader view of oils path over the past century I highly recommend the following resources on the oil market. Daniel Yergin's "The Prize" is an in-depth review of the history of oil up to the First Gulf war. It is indispensable in understanding the growth of the industry. Other books provide entertaining color to the industry by reviewing the swashbuckling nature of the early players who formed the industry as independents. I recommend "The Big Rich" by Bryan Burrough and JP Getty's autobiography "The Way I See It". Finally, David Stockman's "The Great Deformation" is essential reading as it corrects all the false economic narratives of the past which have been masquerading as truth.
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Friday, April 14, 2017
Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can't Agree / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In recent years, U.S. shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC's production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street's major investment banks.
The biggest banks remain bullish on oil prices, expecting moderate price gains by the end of the year, even after last month WTI prices dropped below $50 for a couple of weeks.
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Friday, April 14, 2017
Gold Stocks Bull Upside Targets / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017
By: Zeal_LLC
The get-no-respect gold-stock sector is in a strong young bull market. Past gold-stock bulls have grown to utterly-massive proportions before giving up their ghosts, greatly multiplying the wealth of contrarian investors and speculators. Today’s gold-stock bull is very likely to grow vastly larger before fully running its course. Fundamental gold-stock-bull upside targets reveal the lion’s share of gains are still yet to come.
A little over a year ago in January 2016, a monstrous gold-stock bear finally climaxed. The gold miners’ stocks fell to fundamentally-absurd 13.5-year secular lows as measured by their leading index, the HUI NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index. Out of those dark depths of despair, a new gold-stock bull was stealthily born. And it soon started flexing its muscle, rocketing 182.2% higher in just 6.5 months by early August!
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Friday, April 14, 2017
Trump’s Budget Plan and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
After a long wait, President has finally presented his budget blueprint “to make America great again”. Let’s analyze its possible impact on the gold market. First, we need to praise a 1.2 percent cut in discretionary spending, on balance. In particular, Trump wants to cut the budget of the Environmental Protection Agency by 31 percent, the budget of the Department of State and USAID by 29 percent, and both the budget of the Department of Labor and the Department of Agriculture by 21 percent. The table below summarizes the proposed changes in the allocation of discretionary budget funds.
Friday, April 14, 2017
Energy Market Volatility: What to Expect Next / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: EWI
Our Chief Energy Analyst talks about what he’s looking at across the energy markets
In this new interview with Steve Craig, the Editor of our Energy Pro Service, he explains that when looking across the energy complex, 2017 is playing out according to his Elliott wave script.
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Thursday, April 13, 2017
Best Strategies To Survive A Financial Crisis In Your Home Country / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
Stephen McBride : Praised be the 17th-century Italian wisecrack who noted that you shouldn’t “keep all your eggs in one basket.” It’s still true today and just as applicable to life as to investing.
If you live and work in the US, bank in the US, invest with a US brokerage, and hold your savings in US dollars—your eggs could use some diversification.
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Thursday, April 13, 2017
5 Events This Year That Could Spark The Next Gold Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
Stephen McBride:
Gold had a satisfying first quarter, rising 9% since the beginning of the year. While that can be considered a good start, five events sprinkled throughout 2017 could send it much higher.
Wednesday, April 12, 2017
Gold Topping? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Gary_Savage
Chances are very good that gold has topped or will do so by early next week. What follows will be an intermediate degree correction.
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Wednesday, April 12, 2017
Gold Prices Surge Above Key 200 Day Moving Average $1270 Level / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– Gold price breaks above key 200-day moving average
– Gold hits 5-month high on back of investor nervousness
– Safe haven has 10% gains in 2017 after 9% gains in 2016
– Gold options signal more gains as ETF buying increases