Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, October 05, 2017

Electric Cars Oil Paradigm Shift Dead Ahead / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Spock

The Chinese are holding their next national congress assembly from 18th October. This is a major event where macro policy for China is agreed and implemented. On the agenda will be the electrification of national road transport, with a plan to be all electric by 2050. This will achieve two objectives: Reduce pollution in the major cities and to be the global leader in the electric vehicle (EV) technology, and associated technologies. The Chinese are also building the infrastructure around the concept, including a huge electric grid upgrade across the country over the next 10 years, to cope with the additional load.

Thursday, October 05, 2017

Why is Gold Demand Weak? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldSilver

Jeff Clark : I gave a presentation to some corporate board members recently, and they had one primary question on their mind. Why is overall gold demand weak?

These are smart people. They’re successful, both professionally and with their investments. They even believe in owning a little gold. But they’ve been puzzled by the significant drop in demand for physical metal. They had some ideas, which were mostly right, but their main concern was if they were overlooking some critical factor that was making other investors ignore gold.

Thursday, October 05, 2017

Capital Destruction in Precious Metals and Banking / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses capital destruction in precious metals and banking.So there you have it. A clear breakout to all-time highs confirmed by every measure everywhere with momentum charging ahead and high-fives and champagne corks flying about with reckless abandon and serial glee. To quote Chuck Prince, who left Citigroup in 2007 with an exit bonus of around $12.5 million, $68 million in stock and options, $1.7 million pension, an office, a car and a driver for five years during which time Citigroup shed $64 BILLION in valuation, "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance." So when John Paulson's pit bull Marcelo Kim got up at the Denver Gold Show and assailed the gold mining executives for $85 billion in wealth destruction since 2010, perhaps it might have been instructive to remind him that one executive alone in the banking business (Prince) blew 75% of that on his own.

Thursday, October 05, 2017

Gold is up this year not just in Dollars but in Every Major Currency / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“Even those of us who have been tracking gold’s progress for decades frequently give in to the ease of quoting gold’s value in terms of fiat currency – most commonly in US dollars. And yet, we have it the wrong way round. Gold is in fact the centre of the economic universe, and all the fiat currencies (including cryptocurrencies) revolve around gold.” – Jeff Thomas, InternationalMan.com

Wednesday, October 04, 2017

Tax Reform: Implications for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Axel_Merk

Last week, I got several calls asking me how U.S. tax reform will impact the price of gold. If you can answer this question, you might be able to answer how tax reform will impact other assets. Let me explain.

If you were to analyze the impact of any tax changes on any asset, you have two sets of dynamics to consider: those of the tax reform and those of the asset. What makes the comparison to gold unique is that gold is, if I may call it such, the purest of all assets because it doesn’t change. It is the world around it that changes.

Wednesday, October 04, 2017

Safe Haven Silver To Outperform Gold In Q4 And In 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Safe haven silver to outperform gold in Q4 and 2018
– “Expect silver to eventually outperform gold” say Metals Focus
– 2017 YTD, silver has underperformed gold, climbing by 5% versus 11%
– Silver undervalued versus gold and especially stocks, bonds and many property markets
– Will follow gold’s reactions to macroeconomic & geopolitical factors and should outperform gold
– Special report on India shows it accounts for just 16% of global silver demand
– Silver a “safe haven at times during which gold failed to be” according to academic research

Wednesday, October 04, 2017

The Next Big Offshore Oil Boom Is About To Happen Here / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: OilPrice_Com

Say what you will about offshore oil and gas exploration, but it’s still alive and kicking—high production costs and all. The latest demonstration of the viability of deepwater projects, even in the post-2014 oil industry era, comes from none other than Brazil.

On Wednesday, the country’s National Petroleum Agency put 287 oil and gas blocks up for auction, and only 37 found buyers. Too few, it might seem at first. But the proceeds came in at more than US$1.2 billion—a hefty share of this pledged by heavyweight Exxon. The NPA’s expectations for the proceeds were much more modest, at $157 million.

Wednesday, October 04, 2017

U.S. Mint Gold Bullion Coin Sales Dive as Buyers Take Advantage of Secondary Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

The U.S. Mint is on track for the lowest sales of American Eagle coins in almost a decade. The 2008 financial crisis began a historic ramp up in sales that lasted for years. 20,583,000 silver American Eagles sold that year, more than double the 2007 total of 9,028,036 coins.

In all but one year thereafter the Mint set a new record. Sales peaked in 2015 at 47,000,000 Silver Eagle coins – 5 times the number sold before the world discovered just how rickety the global financial system actually is.

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Will North Korea Boost Gold Prices? Part2 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The turn of 2012 to 2013 was a time of escalated tensions between North Korean and the U.S, comparable to recent strains. Hence, the analysis of that period should be valuable for gold investors curious whether (and how) the latest crisis on Korean Peninsula would affect the precious metals market. On December 12, 2012, North Korea successfully launched a long-range rocket, testing a banned ballistic missile and raising nuclear stakes. In response, the U.N. Security Council approved the broadening of sanctions. But North Korea ignored them and on February 12, 2013 it undertook an underground nuclear bomb test. As the test triggered another, even harsher sanctions, North Korea threatened the U.S. with a preemptive nuclear strike on March 7. On March 30, North Korea declared a “state of war” against South Korea, and Kim Jong-un said that “rockets were ready to be fired at American bases in the Pacific.” On April 2, the North Korean military declared that the war could break out “today or tomorrow”. Tensions remained elevated until May, but they did not boost gold prices. Actually, in April there was a historic slide, as the next chart shows. Hence, if history is any guide, the fresh unease about North Korea will not provide any sustained support for the gold prices.

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Will Crude Oil Drop under $50 in Coming Week? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although the price of black gold increased a bit on Friday, the commodity closed the whole week below important resistance lines and invalidated earlier breakouts. What does it mean for crude oil?

Crude Oil’s Technical Picture

Let’s take a closer look at the charts below and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

This Tech Breakthrough Will Save The Electric Car Market / Commodities / Electric Cars

By: OilPrice_Com

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Precious Metals Monthly Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector started September with a bang. Gold, which had already eclipsed $1300/oz, pushed to $1360/oz while Silver broke its downtrend line (from its late 2012 and 2016 peaks). Unfortunately, precious metals would soon reverse course and more. Gold ended September down nearly 3% and below $1300/oz. Silver lost 5% and its breakout. The gold mining indices (GDX, GDXJ, HUI) lost 7% to 8%. The monthly charts argue the major breakout from multi-year bottoming patterns will have to wait until 2018 at the soonest.

Monday, October 02, 2017

Gold – A Simpler & Better Explanation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Kelsey_Williams

The emotional adamancy which dominates most analysis of gold contributes to confusion and misunderstanding. For example, “Backdrop For Gold Today Is As Bullish As It Has Been In A Long Time”; or “Precious Metal Sector Is On Major Buy Signal”. These and other similar claims are often supported by reams of technical analysis – the best that money can buy. 

And this is on top of general misstatements of fact. It would appear that there is virtually no justification for lower gold prices except when caused by manipulation associated with conspiratorial forces.

Monday, October 02, 2017

Silver is on a Long-term Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is up.

Sunday, October 01, 2017

DBA, SOYB, JJG MOO Soft Commodites ETF's Update / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: SurfCity

My last update on Soft’s was back in mid-April here: https://surfcity.co/2017/04/12/soft-commodities/

Are Soft commodities finding a major low here? Could be but it will vary by commodity and could take another few months to a year for some.

Here is update with charts on DBA, SOYB, JJG MOO and I may add Sugar and Coffee later if I find time. The first three charts are DBA which covers a broad mix of various softs. Also charts on SOYB for Soybeans and JJG, an ETF that buys Futures in Soybeans, Corn and Wheat.

Saturday, September 30, 2017

Another Potential Game Changer for Gold Supply: Chinese Oil Imports Convertible to Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldSilver

Jeff Clark : There are clear supply pressures coming to the gold market, so the last thing it needed was a new source of demand. But that’s exactly what it’s about to get, and as you’ll see, it could potentially push supply into a strained predicament. If this new development catches on it could lead to some fireworks in the gold market.

This source of demand comes from China’s announcement that oil exporters to China will accept yuan as payment. This is normally done in dollars (hence known as the petrodollar system). The yuan is not well established internationally yet, so as an incentive, China will offer its exporters the option to convert their yuan into gold. This will essentially result in a new source of gold demand, one not currently present in the market.

Saturday, September 30, 2017

Gold Bull Market Uplegs in Three Stages / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold bull markets offer outstanding opportunities for traders to grow their wealth.  These bulls consist of series of alternating uplegs and corrections.  Naturally the best times to buy low within ongoing bulls are right after corrections when major new uplegs are being born.  Gold uplegs have three distinct stages that are evident in real-time in key datasets.  Understanding how gold uplegs play out leads to superior gains.

Bull markets in gold can be exceedingly profitable for investors and speculators.  The last secular gold bull ran between April 2001 to August 2011.  During that 10.4-year span, gold powered 638.2% higher!  That radically bested the general stock markets’ 1.9% loss per the S&P 500 over that same time frame.  Hardened contrarians willing to buy low as gold bottoms after long bears can ride all of gold’s big bull gains.

Friday, September 29, 2017

Gold Matches S&P 500 Performance In First 3 Quarters; Up 12% 2017 YTD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

Editor Mark O’Byrne

– Gold climbs over 12% in YTD, matching S&P500 performance
– Palladium best performing market, surges 36% 2017 YTD
– Gold outperforms Nikkei 225, Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE and ISEQ
– Geo-political concerns including Trump and North Korea supporting gold
– Safe haven demand should push gold higher in Q4
– Owning physical gold not dependent on third party websites and technology remains essential

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Copper, Oil, Commodities Bottom as Emerging Markets Breakout / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to update some of the different commodities and emerging markets we took some positions in back in late July of this year. First, let me say that as investors we like everything to line up in perfect harmony so we can make some sense out of what is actually happening in the markets. It’s just human nature. For example, if the US dollar is doing this then the PM complex or the commodities should be doing that. There is a general rule that there is an inverse correlation between the US dollar and the PM complex or commodities, but it’s not always accurate.

Many times we can get bogged down trying to make everything fit perfectly before we make a trade. This can sometimes lead to missed opportunities as what we were expecting didn’t take place. For the most part this is one of the reasons why I prefer Chartology. When a pattern is building out the bears and bulls are making their side known by the battle they’re having with each other, which eventually creates a consolidation or reversal pattern. All the fundamentals that a stock has is also priced into the chart pattern.

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Financial Advice From Jesse Livermore – Importance Of Being Patient and “Sitting” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

Editor Mark O’Byrne

– Listen to Jesse Livermore and ignore the noise of short term market movements, central bank waffle and daily headlines  
– Stock and bond markets are overvalued but continue to climb… for now
– What goes up must come down and investors should diversify and rebalance portfolios despite market noise
– Behavioural biases currently drive markets, prompting legendary investors to be confused and opt out
– Lesson is to prepare portfolios for long-term and invest in assets that will act as hedge in next market correction or crash
– Gold performs well over the long-term and delivers to those “sitting” and being patient