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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Another 15% Drop in Copper Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Today's 4.3% slump in copper is the ninth consecutive daily decline in the metal, a pattern last seen 11 months ago during the peak of China's financing shenanigans -- when Chinese companies used the metal as collateral to access cheap-USD financing and invest the proceeds in higher yielding Chinese yuan.

Since the start of 2014, copper is down 20, outperforming energy commodities (Brent -56%, WTI -49%, NatGas -29%) and underperforming metals (gold +2.0%, silver -14%). The striking difference between now and Q1 2104 is that copper is now joined by the much feared converging decline along the rest of metals, energy and agricultural commodities. The extent of copper's damage is highlighted by more than just unwinding in Chinese trade financing.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Crude Oil Price Collapses and Copper Crashes – Great Recession 2015? / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: GoldCore

Oil prices fell another 1 per cent this morning  and continue their collapse – down 57% in just over 6 months. Copper crashed 8% on the London Metal Exchange, plunging to 5 and a half year lows.

Oil fell to fresh six-year lows and has fallen almost 60 per cent since June 30, 2014 to levels last seen in early 2009 after the 2008 crash (see chart).

February Brent crude dropped another 79 cents to $45.80 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude for was at $45.34, down 55 cents. Copper for delivery in three months on the LME dropped as much as 8.7 percent to $5,353.25 a metric ton, the lowest intraday price since July 2009. Nickel slid 4.6 percent and lead fell 3.8 percent to the lowest in more than two years.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

5 Ways To Play The Oil Price Plunge / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The collapse of the oil price has created losers and winners, and like every major movement in a commodity sector, the trick for investors is figuring out which side of the trade to be on. The most obvious victim of the slide in Brent and WTI prices over the last 6 months has been the major oil producers. Holders of these equities have seen price slides up to 33 percent. The question for oil company investors now is how to determine which of these companies are prepared to weather a sustained period of oil prices around $50 a barrel, or worse. Inevitably, those companies with high debt levels combined with high operating costs will be the first to get washed away. In contrast, low-leveraged companies with attractive cost structures are likely to survive. These companies will gain when the oil price comes back, and are the ones that investors should be eyeing right now.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Why the Smart Money is Betting on Renewable Energ - Brewing Solar Power Boom / Commodities / Solar Energy

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: While everyone’s been fixated on oil, renewable energy has been gathering some serious steam.

Led by solar power, worldwide capital investment in “clean” energy surged by more than 16% last year.

In fact, spending on renewable energy was so strong in 2014, some have begun to label the recent rush into renewables as a “turning point” in the energy balance.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Bitcoin Price At Beginning of an Extremely Important Decline / Commodities / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

Briefly: short speculative positions, stop-loss at $257, take-profit at $153.

There’s been a plunge in the price of Bitcoin and this is reflected by an uptick in the (already relatively high) number of news stories covering the “Bitcoin crash” or how much the currency has lost since its peak values. On CoinDesk, we read:

The bitcoin price has plunged below $250 and appears to be falling further, as sell orders pile up at major exchanges.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Suddenly, Not A Bad Environment For Gold Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: John_Rubino

A few years ago (when the world was very different) veteran mining analyst Jay Taylor told me something that seemed counterintuitive: Deflation can actually be a good thing for the gold and silver mining business — if the prices of mining inputs like oil fall faster than the price of precious metals.

In other words, it’s not inflation or deflation per se that matter, but the distribution of price trends. “With quantitative easing,” said Taylor, “the liquidity being pumped into the system has caused energy and labor costs to rise, which has more than offset higher precious metals prices. Historically, the miners have actually done better in a deflationary environment in which gold and silver are seen as monetary metals and the cost of getting them out of the ground declines due to lower energy and labor.”

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

The New Normal for Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

You may have come across the word “contango” in an oil-related news report or article recently and wondered, “What’s contango?”

It isn’t the Chinese version of the tango.

Contango is a condition in a commodity market where the futures price for the commodity is higher than the current spot price. Essentially, the future price of oil is higher than what oil is worth today.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Coffee Anyone? A Commdity Chart Technical Outlook / Commodities / Coffee

By: Austin_Galt

Being based in a country renowned for some of the world’s finest coffee, Colombia, I have acquired a taste for the green bean. So just what do I expect to be paying for the fine blend going forward?

Let’s take a top down approach to the technicals beginning with the yearly chart.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Alarming Gold Market Manipulations Underway / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Submissions

Mike Gleason writes: Well, the first full week of the New Year has brought a number of important headlines worthy of precious metals investors’ attention, so let’s get right to the latest developments.

On Monday, John Boehner took hold of the gavel as Speaker of the House for another two years. Boehner overcame opposition from a small minority of dissenting conservative lawmakers. But this small minority represents a majority of actual Republican voters who say they are dissatisfied with Speaker Boehner over his spending deals that have fully funded President Obama’s agenda and keep jacking up the national debt.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

HUI Closes Strong – Gold Price Clears First Resistance Hurdle / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

Two quick charts to note some developments in gold.

The first is of the metal itself.

A couple of things worth mentioning. First of all is the CLOSING push past the 100 day moving average. That will attract the technical or chart-based trading funds. If they are short, they will cover; if not long, some will come in on a signal like this.

Secondly – the price closed above the first level of chart resistance noted down near the $1225 level or so. That is the best CLOSING price in over one month.

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Commodities

Monday, January 12, 2015

Gold and Commodity Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We have so far analyzed the current situation in the oil market, suggesting that falling oil prices can indicate another recession in the not so distant future. So the obvious question arises: would it be positive or negative for the gold market? The answer depends on whether gold is pro-cyclical or not. Some economists believe that gold, as oil, rises in a boom and falls during the bust. We consider that opinion too simplified. However, there are indeed strong arguments that commodity prices are strongly affected by the monetary policy responsible for the business cycle. Let’s analyze some data.

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Commodities

Monday, January 12, 2015

Gold Prices Rise on Unexpected Fall in US Hourly Earnings / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,222.00, EUR 1,035.77 and GBP 808.09 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,211.25, EUR 1.025.09 and GBP 799.61 per ounce.

Spot gold climbed $13.20 or 1.09% to $1,220.50 per ounce Friday and silver rose $0.15 or 0.92% to $16.46 per ounce. Gold and silver both performed strong last week up 2.78% and 4.24% respectively.

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Commodities

Monday, January 12, 2015

Low Oil Prices Benefit at the Pump and in the Market / Commodities / Credit Crisis 2015

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: Low oil prices is certainly one of the biggest stories of the past six months.

Indeed, as the price of crude continues to drop, currently hovering just under a once-unthinkable $50 per barrel price, the issue is sure to be in the news well into the foreseeable future.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Gold and Silver Postcards From the Great Emptiness / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jesse

“We who are born into this age of freedom and independence and the self must undergo this loneliness. It is the price we pay for these times of ours.” - Natsume Sôseki

"The issue isn't just jobs. Even slaves had jobs. The issue is wages. - Jim Hightower

The headline 'Jobs Number' came in better than expected at an adjusted +252,000.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Large Speculators Returning to Gold - But / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

Here is the latest chart detailing the relationship between the Hedge funds NET POSITIONING in the Comex gold market and the price of the actual metal.

I have presented this chart for some time now over at my former website to rebut the silliness from the gold perma-bull camp that any moves lower in the price of gold are ALWAYS the result of "evil bullion banks working to suppress the price of the metal to discredit it". That mindset had a place at one time - back when the US Dollar was sinking - but is now passé and an extreme waste of precious mental effort and time. The camp that has this as a central tenet of their "faith" has long ago lost any credibility on this issue among serious-minded investors/traders.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 11, 2015

What’s In Store For Gold Price in 2015? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jason_Hamlin

The following article is from Gold Stock Bull contributor, Ben Kramer-Miller.  While I agree with his overall assessment and reasoning, I am a bit more bullish in the short term and think precious metals have likely already found a bottom. Of course, short-term pricing is driven by paper derivative contracts and the emotions of investors that either panic or buy the dip when the sharp price movements occur, so anything is possible in the short term. In the medium to long-term, we both agree that prices for both gold and silver are moving substantially higher and that 2015 will prove to be an excellent year to accumulate metals and undervalued miners.  Cheers – Jason Hamlin

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Commodities

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Crude Oil Price Forecasts / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Investment_U

Rachel Gearhart writes: This week’s chart looks at oil prices from December 2012 through the end of 2014. It also does something quite interesting. It shows predictions out to June 2016. To create the chart, we looked at forecasts from Goldman Sachs, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and the futures market.

As you can see in the chart, analysts and Goldman Sachs forecast a strong rebound in oil prices.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Crude Oil Price Ten Year Forecast to 2025: Importers Set to Receive a $600 Billion Refund / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

This is an update on a long-term oil price forecasting model developed in early 2008 first posted in April 2009 as “The Impending Mother of All Oil Shocks” which was updated in December 2010 and posted as “Crude Oil Price Ten Year Forecast to 2020”.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24849.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10260.html

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Commodities

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Very Strong Indirect Reasons To Buy Gold And Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

Got gold? Got silver? If not, you may not survive very well under the current and future regime[s] established in this country. Does price matter? Sure, everyone wants to buy reasonably near the lows, and there are many of us who paid substantially higher prices than currently exist. However, if there is no intent to sell but only hold as a form of wealth protection and/or a form of insurance against a worthless fiat paper currency, then price paid is really immaterial and focus should remain on purpose, not price. Owning and controlling either or both gold and silver are far more important.

In a market that is forming a bottom, price usually moves sideways along the RHS of the chart [Right Hand Side]. What is known for certain is that the farther price moves along the RHS, the closer it gets to a final resolution: a final bottom and eventual reversal of trend. The same applies to the ownership of gold and silver.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 10, 2015

The Other Side of the “Oil Glut” / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: The pundits continue to hawk the same reasons for the fall in oil prices.

These are always “spearheaded” by comments about surging global supply led by the onslaught of unconventional (tight and shale) oil production in the U.S.

Invariably, what’s missed by these “TV sages” are the pricing dynamics kicking in that virtually guarantee an increase in oil prices as we move into 2015.

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