Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Natural Gas Sets Up Bottom Pattern / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In less than two weeks, our prediction that Natural Gas would move lower into our “basing zone”, between $2.00 and $2.20, has come true.  Natural Gas has fallen into our expected basing/bottoming zone and traders should be looking to target low price entries as the extended setup of this base takes place.

You can read our original research post regarding our Natural Gas analysis from June 10, 2019: NATURAL GAS MOVES INTO BASING ZONE

It is our belief that anytime Natural Gas falls below $2.20, or lower, traders should consider jumping into NG related ETFs or NG future as this bottoming zone will likely push NG back above $2.35~$2.40 fairly quickly.  Historically, any price move to levels closer to $2.00 have been very strong support for Natural Gas and this early basing pattern is setting up for an incredible opportunity for traders.

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Gold Jumps Above $1,400 after Dovish Fed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last week was definitely hot. Both major central banks adopted a more dovish stance. Gold reacted positively, jumping above $1,400. What has changed, and what has not? How close are we to an actual rate cut, not only to the speculation of getting one for sure on the next Fed meeting? How will gold like it?

Doves Are Strong Within the Fed

The dovish shift was surprising. Maybe not the direction, but the scale for sure. After all, the GDP is steadily growing, while the unemployment rate is at record lows. While inflation is below the target, it is still above 1.5 percent. Why would the Fed lower the federal funds rate in such positive macroeconomic conditions?

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

After This Confirmation Gold Prices Will Rise Fast / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

A while ago, I wrote about a coming confirmation of the multi-year gold bull market. It has taken longer than expected, but that signal has now arrived, and the bull is very much confirmed.

Here is a gold chart indicating that very important signal

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Has Gold Price Broken Out Or Not? Technicals And Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

A casual glance at the latest short term chart for GLD would tend to support the notion that, yes, gold has decidedly broken out of its trading range and is headed higher.

Below is a two-year chart of GLD (bigcharts.marketwatch.com) …

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final article in this Gold analysis series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price into Late September 2019 :

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Will Silver Soon Follow Gold’s Lead? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Gold prices have broken out of a massive multi-year consolidation pattern to the upside. That suggests the possibility of a massive multi-year rally ahead!

To be sure, there is also the possibility of some retracing and back-testing this summer before the $1,400 level is conquered for good.

The fall and winter periods are typically more conducive to big precious metals rallies.

Seasonality, however, isn’t a dependable trading tool. Some technical analysts (who will go unnamed here) wrongly turned bearish on gold and gold stocks after they put in a disappointing early spring performance and were thought to be headed straight into the summer doldrums.

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

GDX Gold Stocks ETF / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This article in my Gold analysis series takes a look at GDX the Gold stocks ETF:

• Current State
• Trend Analysis, MACD, Trend Channels Support / Resistance
• Seasonal Analysis
• US Dollar / Gold
• Gold Price Trend Forecast Conclusion
• Gold Stocks

Monday, June 24, 2019

Gold’s Century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“For twelve consecutive years, gold was up every single year whether there were inflation fears, deflation fears; strong dollar, weak dollar; political stability, political instability. It didn’t matter – strong oil, weak oil. . . Gold went up for twelve years. . . When gold embarks upon its next move, I believe that you will see that long wave take gold relatively quickly, but it will be measured in years, up to a $3000 to $5000 target that I believe is fundamentally justified based on the facts we have today.” –– Thomas Kaplan, Electrum Group (Bloomberg’s Peer to Peer Conversations with David Rubinstein)

Sunday, June 23, 2019

The Gold Market Manipulation Theory / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

’ve always said that gold built out one of the most beautiful bull markets of all time between the 2001 low and 2011 high. From a Chartology perspective it just doesn’t get any better. During the bull market years I called this weekly bar chart, “JUST ANOTHER BRICK IN THE WALL, because each consolidation pattern marked another brick in the wall.

The reason I’m posting this chart tonight is because we could be embarking on a similar bull market starting at the 2001 low. Take a minute and put yourself back at the 2001 low not knowing what lies ahead. As gold began to rally the first thing one would look for in a new bull market is a consolidation pattern which gold produced in 2002 that was the blue triangle. Once the price action broke out of that small blue triangle the next impulse began confirming the new bull market. From that point one had to believe in the Chartology that the major trend was up until a new lower low was put in place. As long as each consolidation pattern was followed by an impulse move up the bull market remained intact, rinse and repeat.

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Richard_Mills

The US Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, did what many expected on Wednesday, and held interest rates steady, while signaling that a rate cut is on its way.

Despite pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded after a two-day meeting that it will stay pat for now, meaning no change to the 2.25% to 2.5% range on the federal funds rate. Nine of 10 FOMC members voted to keep rates unchanged.

Language here is important. The Fed reportedly dropped its pledge to be “patient” on widely anticipated rate cuts, meaning it could be poised to act. Also, Reuters said, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stopped referring to below-target inflation as “transient”.

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Eye on Key USD Support and Implications for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is worth watching closely today, with important implications for Gold.

The DXY is pressing on key support at 96.40/50. This represents the June 7 pullback low as well as the 200 DMA, the Sep 2018-Present support line, and the major up trendline off of the Feb 2018 low at 88.25, which initiated the up-leg to the April 2019 high at 98.33.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold finally surged to new bull-market highs this week!  Several years after its last bull high, gold punched through vexing resistance after the Fed continued capitulating on ever normalizing.  This huge milestone changes everything for gold and its miners’ stocks, unleashing new-high psychology fueling self-feeding buying.  With speculators not yet all-in and investors wildly underdeployed, gold has room to power much higher.

Gold momentum has certainly been building for a major upside breakout.  Back in mid-April with gold still near $1300, I wrote an essay describing the “Gold-Bull Breakout Potential” and why it was finally coming.  Then a couple weeks ago with gold in the $1330s, I published another one analyzing “Gold Surges Near Breakout”.  For several years higher lows had slowly compressed gold ever closer to surging over resistance.

Today’s gold bull was first born back in mid-December 2015 the day after the Fed’s initial rate hike in its just-abandoned tightening cycle.  Gold’s maiden upleg was massive, rocketing 29.9% higher in just 6.7 months to $1365 in early July 2016!  But that first high-water mark has proven impregnable over the 3.0 years since.  Gold tried and failed to break out in 2017, 2018, and 2019, repelled near a $1350 Maginot Line.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger reacts to today's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. To the surprise of the many and the chagrin of the few, the Fed opted to do nothing with policy today and left rates unchanged despite clarion calls for a cut. As I wrote about earlier, there was (and is) zero rationale for a rate cut, what with GDP humming along and the best employment numbers in fifty years (if you believe them). Stocks moved higher despite several attempts at profit-taking, but that was no surprise because the Fed wanted to make damn certain the response to the statement and the ensuing presser would be a positive outcome.

The victims were bond yields (lower) and the U.S. dollar (lower), but the S&P rose 8.71 (0.30%), while gold had at its highest close for 2019 at $1,364.45. The lower U.S. dollar contributed to the advance in the metals, but we are still caught in a resistance quagmire between $1,350 and $1,375, with the relative strength index (RSI) screaming "Overbought!" after an $80 advance.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Super Mario delivered a surprisingly dovish speech. But he was shortly outshined by Super Jerome. Both key central banks have sent new signals to the markets for interpretation. Let’s read the tea leaves and make sense of the initial reaction in the gold market.

Draghi Repeats ‘Whatever it Takes’ In a Mini Version

As we covered one week ago in the Gold News Monitor, the ECB became more dovish on the June monetary policy meeting. The central bank postponed the possible beginning of the interest rate hiking from the end of 2019 to the mid-2020.

Our assessment was that “the European central bankers are getting more worried about the state of the Eurozone economy and may adopt an even more dovish stance in the near future.” It turned out we were right. We did not have to wait too long for a more forceful signal from the ECB. On Tuesday, Mario Draghi delivered a mini ‘whatever it takes’ speech at the annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. He said:

Friday, June 21, 2019

Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold has finally broken out to the upside.

In Asia trading on Thursday, Gold exploded through the $1360 to $1370 resistance zone and was able to hold the gains throughout the day, closing above $1395/oz.

As we pen this article, Gold has to chance to break $1400/oz by the weekend. The close of the month (and quarter) next week will provide an additional clue as to the sustainability of this strength.

The gold stocks meanwhile have been on an absolute tear. GDX is up 16 of the past 17 trading days and has gained 23% over that period. GDXJ is up 13 of the past 17 sessions and has also gained 23% during that period.

GDX closed right at resistance at $25. It could blow through it and reach a multi-year high at $27 or it could first correct and consolidate around $25.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final article in this Gold analysis series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price into Late September 2019 :

• Current State
• Trend Analysis, MACD, Trend Channels Support / Resistance
• Seasonal Analysis
• US Dollar / Gold
• Gold Price Trend Forecast Conclusion
• Gold Stocks

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Bus has left the Station / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: SurfCity

Surf City has several seats on the Bus.  Do you?

Summary: Gold closed at $1348 today according to Stockcharts but is now much higher at $1365 as I write this update.  My two longer-term weekly charts on GLD show the potential for a massive upside breakout where price could really run hard & fast.  My first chart is a 6 Year weekly showing a massive inverse Head & shoulders pattern that is ready to bust out to the upside of the inverse neckline. Remember that the bigger the pattern in Time, the more powerful the Breakout potential.  My second chart is a 2 year weekly showing a large “Cup & Handle” pattern, which is another bullish structure where price could really run.

Friday, June 21, 2019

The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

In March 1980, the University of Washington installed a seismograph system designed to monitor earthquake activity in the Cascades, with a focus on increased seismic activity around Mount St. Helens.

Starting just a few days later, a series of earthquakes, small eruptions, and steam releases took place. Near the end of the month, the peak of the mountain started to open up.

But this was only the beginning. For the next six weeks, small eruptions alternated with intermittent quiet periods. But beneath the surface, liquid magma was forcing its way upward, creating intense pressure.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

US Dollar vs Gold Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my fourth video in this series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold Price into September 2019.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The medium-term chart shows early signs of Silver changing trend by attempting to end it's multi-year downtrend by making a higher high of $16.20 and higher low of $14,27. A break above $16.20 would lift Silver into a new trading range of $18 and $16.20. Which if it happens will mean we won't revisit the $14.00 area for some time. So with Silver currently trading at $14.74 then time may be running out to accumulate Silver at a sub $15 price.