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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, January 19, 2018

Bond Market Bear Creating Gold Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Richard_Mills

Gold is climbing as bond yields rise and the dollar falls, over speculation that China is pulling back on buying US Treasuries and Japan signals it is winding down its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, US debt continues to grow after the Republicans under President Trump pushed a trillion dollars worth of tax cuts through the Senate, that the Congressional Budget Office thinks will add $1.7 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.

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Commodities

Friday, January 19, 2018

Gold Stocks GDX $25 Breakout on Earnings / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The world’s leading gold-stock ETF is nearing a major upside breakout from key technical levels.  GDX is getting closer to challenging and powering above $25.  That would accelerate the sentiment shift in this deeply-undervalued sector back to bullish, enticing investors to return.  Good operating results from the major gold miners in their upcoming Q4’17 earnings season could prove the catalyst to fuel this GDX $25 breakout.

The classic way to measure gold-stock-sector price action is with the HUI NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index.  But the HUI benchmark is being increasingly usurped by the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF as the gold-stock metric of choice.  GDX is used far more often than the HUI in gold-stock analyses these days, both online and on financial television.  I haven’t seen the HUI mentioned on CNBC for years now.

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Commodities

Friday, January 19, 2018

Upside Risk for Gold in 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Black swans are very surprising and rare events. As they are beyond the realm of normal expectations, it is impossible to predict them. However, analysts do not care about such details and they outdo each other in forecasts. Our favorite is the list of ten outrageous predictions published by the Saxo Bank. The risk events include: the loss of Fed’s independence for the U.S. Treasury, the plunge in Bitcoin prices as government strike back, the abandonment of the yield curve control by the Bank of Japan, or the harsh division between the old and new EU members.

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Commodities

Friday, January 19, 2018

It’s Time To Build The Gold GDX Launching Pad / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

In 2017, the word “disappointment” took on a new spelling – “G-D-X.” After several failed break-out attempts in 2017, there is no question that it provided us a year of frustration.

As of Friday, the metals have now give us another indication that a break out attempt may be setting up yet again. And, just like the others we tracked last year, I am unable to tell you definitively whether the market will trigger that set up. However, after making higher highs off the December support on Friday, the metals have almost completed a 5-wave structure off those lows. That is the initial bullish indication for which we have been waiting in 2018.

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Commodities

Friday, January 19, 2018

For Americans Buying Gold and Silver: Still a Big U.S. Pricing Advantage / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

David Smith: Two years ago, in this space, I penned an essay discussing how Americans - and other countries that are "dollarized" - where the local currency is either the USD or pegged to it - had a significant advantage when it came to getting the most for their money when exchanging dollars for precious metals.

Lately I looked into this issue again and the good news is - it's still a good deal. In relation to a lot of other folks, even better than before! But the bad news is that this might not be the case much longer...

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Commodities

Friday, January 19, 2018

Will Surge in Bond Yields Smash Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Yields on U.S. Treasuries have leaped recently. It will wreck the yellow metal. Or maybe not.

Yields Reach New Heights. Breakthrough for Gold?

Last week, we wrote that concerns emerged that China could stop or slow buying the U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. bond yields reacted strongly. We noted that in theory it should sink gold, but the usual “correlation between bullion and Treasury yields broke down thanks to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which supported the gold prices”. Due to the importance of that issue for the gold outlook, we continued to monitor the developments in the bond market to keep investors updated.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Bitcoin Crash Sees Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

‘Digital Gold’ Bitcoin Flight To Safe Haven Physical Gold

– Latest bitcoin, crypto crash causes gold coin and bar demand to surge
– Bitcoin down 40% from high, Ripple down 50% and Ethereum down 30%
– Ripple and ‘Digital gold’ Bitcoin fall past key psychological price levels
– $300bn wiped from cryptocurrency fortunes in just 36 hours
– New research says that there is ‘Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem’
– Savvy crypto buyers converted their short term gains into physical gold bars, coins
– Bitcoin and Ripple sellers bought gold both for delivery and storage from GoldCore
– Gold ETF holdings rise – Assets in iShares Gold soar to $10.7 b, highest in 5 years
– 95% of cryptocurrencies will go to zero …

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Commodities

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Crude Oil Sweat, Blood and Tears / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil hit a fresh 2018 high of $64.89, but then reversed and declined very quickly, erasing most of Friday increase. What encouraged oil bears to act and how did this decline affect the short-term picture?

Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration said that U.S. oil output is expected to continue its rise to 6.55 million barrels per day (with production from shale rising by 111,000 bpd) in the coming month, which encouraged oil bears to act. As a reminder, before the Friday market closure, they received one more reason to act – the Baker Hughes report, which showed that the oil rig count jumped by 10 to 752 (to the highest level since the beginning of September 2017). What impact did the above-mentioned circumstances have on the daily chart of crude oil?

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Commodities

Thursday, January 18, 2018

How to Trade Gold During Second Half of January, Daily Cycle Prediction / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Metals are setting up for that “Rip Your Face Off Rally”.  The following charts for Gold and Silver show a very interesting setup that is unfolding as the US markets continue to strengthen – that being that the Metals are showing strength in price and we can only assume this is related to some level of FEAR in the markets or expectations that the “Equities and Bitcoin Bubbles” are nearing an end.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 18, 2018

More U.S. States Are Knocking Down Gold & Silver Barriers / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Here’s What Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Idaho, Etc. Are Doing...

In 2017, Arizona, Louisiana, Virginia, Texas, and North Carolina, and even Minnesota made progress on the sound money front. In 2018, other states could do so as well.

36 states have already removed sales taxes from precious metals transactions, and bills being pushed this year by sound money advocates in Alabama and Tennessee could add to that list.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Silver Volume Extreme as in April 2013 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

During yesterday’s session silver moved back and forth in a volatile manner on volume that was the highest since April 2013. There were a few volume spikes in the meantime, but none as big as what we saw yesterday. The silver market is being very loud. But are you listening?

It may be hard to notice silver’s signs with all that’s happening in the USD Index and given the rally in gold stocks, but it’s definitely worth it. Let’s investigate (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Gold Stocks GDXJ Breaking Out / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today the GDXJ is breaking out above its neckline. Again I was looking for a little more chopping action between the neckline and the neckline symmetry line before the breakout, but so far it’s not happening. I’m going to take my second position and buy 150 shares at the market at 35.34 with the sell/stop at 33.31 for now. A backtest to the neckline would come in around the 35.10 for a slightly lower risk entry point.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Does CoT Show Battle over Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has released the latest CoT report. What can we learn from it about the gold market?

Light and Darkness in the Gold Market

The epic battle between good and evil. The conflict between light and darkness. We and them. This is how some analysts portray the Commitments of Traders report. Commercials, i.e. bullion banks such as JP Morgan, are of course the bad guys.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Crude Oil is Starting 2018 Strong but there's Undeniable Risk to the Downside / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

Crude oil is starting out strong in 2018 as both the international Brent benchmark and the West Texas Intermediate continue to book price gains. The gains in crude oil prices this year is riding the waves of the uptrend in oil prices that began in 2017. Now, the U.S. West Texas Intermediate is trading up around $63.57 per barrel and the Brent crude is trading up around $69.20 per barrel. 

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Silver Prices To Surge – JP Morgan Has Acquired A “Massive Quantity of Physical Silver” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– JP Morgan continues to accumulate the biggest stockpile of physical silver in history
– “JPM now holds more than 133m oz -more than was held by the Hunt Bros” – Butler
– Silver hoard owned by JPM has increased from Zero ozs in 2011 to 120m ozs today
– Money managers showing more optimism towards silver through record buying

– “Near impossible to rule out an upside price surprise at any moment”

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

One Big, Potential Catalyst for Gold in 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The rebound in the precious metals sector continues. Friday, Gold pushed to another new high, near $1340/oz. Gold stocks led by the HUI Gold Bugs Index and GDX also made a new high with juniors and Silver right behind. The greatest traders say the move comes first and then the reason later. When it comes to Gold we are always analyzing the reason behind the moves so we can distinguish between reactions and reflex moves and those moves that are part of a real bull market. The market may be starting to sniff out a potential big catalyst for Gold that could drive its breakout in 2018.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Is This The Long-Awaited Gold Break-Out – Or Just Another Paper Market Head Fake? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: John_Rubino

That was fun. Since mid-December gold has behaved like a tech stock, jumping from $1,240/oz to $1,337 and carrying a long list of gold mining stocks along for the ride.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 13, 2018

Gold Miners’ Status Updated / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

After a positive year-end with the expected precious metals rally we noted on Dec. 31, in NFTRH 480:

“With HUI dwelling just under the 195 resistance parameter, a pullback can come at any time. But there are enough other factors still in line to expect a resumed rally after any grind at resistance comes into play.”

and then on Jan. 7, in NFTRH 481:

“What HUI actually did was immediately push up into the 195-200 resistance zone, become overbought and hang around there all week in consolidation. Here is the noisy daily chart once again. Let’s focus on how the most recent RSI oversold condition in December did indeed spring a tradable rally. As chartists saw the October/November shelf of support break down and then the July lows breached the call was ‘BEARISH!’ far and wide. Shorts were taken on the say so of people who know how to look laterally and see one thing lower than the other thing.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 13, 2018

Gold And Silver – Review of Annual, Qrtly, Monthly, Weekly Charts. Reality v Sentiment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Michael_Noonan

Usually we have a commentary of some kind as a back story to what is going on in the PMs. Our commentaries have become fewer and farther between because of the absurdity of government control, which in turn is controlled by the ruling elite. Not a day goes by that the president elect, Donald Trump, is not severely criticized by mainstream media, both televised and in print. We have never seen this kind of maltreatment toward a president, ever. It is the Deep State exposing its ugly tentacles to keep Trump from gaining any traction in popularity, and it speaks to the bitter disappoint that Deep State favorite, and one upon whom they could depend, Hillary Clinton lost.

Sadly, Trump has been overwhelmed by the shadow powers and turned into yet another presidential puppet that will disappoint perhaps even more than turncoat Obama. Many of Trump’s promises of reform have been cast aside in favor of bowing to the dictates of the ruling elites. the swamp creature have survived the draining attempt and are back stronger than ever.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 13, 2018

Gold GLD ETF Update.. Bear Market Reversal Watch / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

Just a quick update on GLD which is showing the price action approaching the top rail of its triangle trading range which should be around the 127.50 area. Many times during the formation of a 5 point triangle reversal pattern the price action will fail to make it all the way down to the 5th reversal point which suggests the bulls are eager to get positioned. A touch of the top rail will complete the 5th reversal point technically putting the triangle into the reversal category to the upside.

What we have to do now is to see how the price action interact with the top rail. Most likely we should see a reaction backdown initially that could be very shallow if it’s time for the triangle to complete. If the bulls are really fired up we could see a gap above the top rail which would be very bullish.

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