Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, June 23, 2019

The Gold Market Manipulation Theory / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

’ve always said that gold built out one of the most beautiful bull markets of all time between the 2001 low and 2011 high. From a Chartology perspective it just doesn’t get any better. During the bull market years I called this weekly bar chart, “JUST ANOTHER BRICK IN THE WALL, because each consolidation pattern marked another brick in the wall.

The reason I’m posting this chart tonight is because we could be embarking on a similar bull market starting at the 2001 low. Take a minute and put yourself back at the 2001 low not knowing what lies ahead. As gold began to rally the first thing one would look for in a new bull market is a consolidation pattern which gold produced in 2002 that was the blue triangle. Once the price action broke out of that small blue triangle the next impulse began confirming the new bull market. From that point one had to believe in the Chartology that the major trend was up until a new lower low was put in place. As long as each consolidation pattern was followed by an impulse move up the bull market remained intact, rinse and repeat.

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Richard_Mills

The US Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, did what many expected on Wednesday, and held interest rates steady, while signaling that a rate cut is on its way.

Despite pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded after a two-day meeting that it will stay pat for now, meaning no change to the 2.25% to 2.5% range on the federal funds rate. Nine of 10 FOMC members voted to keep rates unchanged.

Language here is important. The Fed reportedly dropped its pledge to be “patient” on widely anticipated rate cuts, meaning it could be poised to act. Also, Reuters said, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stopped referring to below-target inflation as “transient”.

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Eye on Key USD Support and Implications for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is worth watching closely today, with important implications for Gold.

The DXY is pressing on key support at 96.40/50. This represents the June 7 pullback low as well as the 200 DMA, the Sep 2018-Present support line, and the major up trendline off of the Feb 2018 low at 88.25, which initiated the up-leg to the April 2019 high at 98.33.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold finally surged to new bull-market highs this week!  Several years after its last bull high, gold punched through vexing resistance after the Fed continued capitulating on ever normalizing.  This huge milestone changes everything for gold and its miners’ stocks, unleashing new-high psychology fueling self-feeding buying.  With speculators not yet all-in and investors wildly underdeployed, gold has room to power much higher.

Gold momentum has certainly been building for a major upside breakout.  Back in mid-April with gold still near $1300, I wrote an essay describing the “Gold-Bull Breakout Potential” and why it was finally coming.  Then a couple weeks ago with gold in the $1330s, I published another one analyzing “Gold Surges Near Breakout”.  For several years higher lows had slowly compressed gold ever closer to surging over resistance.

Today’s gold bull was first born back in mid-December 2015 the day after the Fed’s initial rate hike in its just-abandoned tightening cycle.  Gold’s maiden upleg was massive, rocketing 29.9% higher in just 6.7 months to $1365 in early July 2016!  But that first high-water mark has proven impregnable over the 3.0 years since.  Gold tried and failed to break out in 2017, 2018, and 2019, repelled near a $1350 Maginot Line.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger reacts to today's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. To the surprise of the many and the chagrin of the few, the Fed opted to do nothing with policy today and left rates unchanged despite clarion calls for a cut. As I wrote about earlier, there was (and is) zero rationale for a rate cut, what with GDP humming along and the best employment numbers in fifty years (if you believe them). Stocks moved higher despite several attempts at profit-taking, but that was no surprise because the Fed wanted to make damn certain the response to the statement and the ensuing presser would be a positive outcome.

The victims were bond yields (lower) and the U.S. dollar (lower), but the S&P rose 8.71 (0.30%), while gold had at its highest close for 2019 at $1,364.45. The lower U.S. dollar contributed to the advance in the metals, but we are still caught in a resistance quagmire between $1,350 and $1,375, with the relative strength index (RSI) screaming "Overbought!" after an $80 advance.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Super Mario delivered a surprisingly dovish speech. But he was shortly outshined by Super Jerome. Both key central banks have sent new signals to the markets for interpretation. Let’s read the tea leaves and make sense of the initial reaction in the gold market.

Draghi Repeats ‘Whatever it Takes’ In a Mini Version

As we covered one week ago in the Gold News Monitor, the ECB became more dovish on the June monetary policy meeting. The central bank postponed the possible beginning of the interest rate hiking from the end of 2019 to the mid-2020.

Our assessment was that “the European central bankers are getting more worried about the state of the Eurozone economy and may adopt an even more dovish stance in the near future.” It turned out we were right. We did not have to wait too long for a more forceful signal from the ECB. On Tuesday, Mario Draghi delivered a mini ‘whatever it takes’ speech at the annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. He said:

Friday, June 21, 2019

Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold has finally broken out to the upside.

In Asia trading on Thursday, Gold exploded through the $1360 to $1370 resistance zone and was able to hold the gains throughout the day, closing above $1395/oz.

As we pen this article, Gold has to chance to break $1400/oz by the weekend. The close of the month (and quarter) next week will provide an additional clue as to the sustainability of this strength.

The gold stocks meanwhile have been on an absolute tear. GDX is up 16 of the past 17 trading days and has gained 23% over that period. GDXJ is up 13 of the past 17 sessions and has also gained 23% during that period.

GDX closed right at resistance at $25. It could blow through it and reach a multi-year high at $27 or it could first correct and consolidate around $25.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final article in this Gold analysis series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price into Late September 2019 :

• Current State
• Trend Analysis, MACD, Trend Channels Support / Resistance
• Seasonal Analysis
• US Dollar / Gold
• Gold Price Trend Forecast Conclusion
• Gold Stocks

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Bus has left the Station / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: SurfCity

Surf City has several seats on the Bus.  Do you?

Summary: Gold closed at $1348 today according to Stockcharts but is now much higher at $1365 as I write this update.  My two longer-term weekly charts on GLD show the potential for a massive upside breakout where price could really run hard & fast.  My first chart is a 6 Year weekly showing a massive inverse Head & shoulders pattern that is ready to bust out to the upside of the inverse neckline. Remember that the bigger the pattern in Time, the more powerful the Breakout potential.  My second chart is a 2 year weekly showing a large “Cup & Handle” pattern, which is another bullish structure where price could really run.

Friday, June 21, 2019

The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

In March 1980, the University of Washington installed a seismograph system designed to monitor earthquake activity in the Cascades, with a focus on increased seismic activity around Mount St. Helens.

Starting just a few days later, a series of earthquakes, small eruptions, and steam releases took place. Near the end of the month, the peak of the mountain started to open up.

But this was only the beginning. For the next six weeks, small eruptions alternated with intermittent quiet periods. But beneath the surface, liquid magma was forcing its way upward, creating intense pressure.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

US Dollar vs Gold Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my fourth video in this series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold Price into September 2019.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The medium-term chart shows early signs of Silver changing trend by attempting to end it's multi-year downtrend by making a higher high of $16.20 and higher low of $14,27. A break above $16.20 would lift Silver into a new trading range of $18 and $16.20. Which if it happens will mean we won't revisit the $14.00 area for some time. So with Silver currently trading at $14.74 then time may be running out to accumulate Silver at a sub $15 price.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

It’s not a chart of nominal HUI with upside technical targets. We’ll do that in NFTRH this weekend, along with the usual individual miners. Rather, it’s a companion to other charts we’ve been reviewing over the last several months showing the under valuation of the gold stock sector relative to gold’s performance vs. cyclical assets/markets. For example, gold has risen strongly vs. the CRB index and that is a sector fundamental under valuation.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

A Key Gold Bull Market Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

The gold market is looking a lot like it did early in the millennium, at the start of the bull market. It is setting up for a gold bull market that is likely to be way more intense than the previous one, due to the structural weaknesses incurred by the monetary system since then.

Debt levels, for example, have grown significantly since the early 2000s. US Goverment debts (Federal debt) as a percentage of GDP  has grown from 55% in 2000 to 105% today.

There will soon be significant market movements to compensate for the unsustainable debt levels. If your debt levels are becoming too high, at some point your credit rating will be affected to the extent that lenders will require higher interest rates and/or they will refuse to provide you any credit. This is true whether you are an individual or a nation state.

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

With the precious metals markets range-bound and driven by forces beyond his control, sector expert Michael Ballanger turns his contrarian eye to the past. With gold enjoying its best week of the year, with the Daily Sentiment Index charging northward, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pressing 72 for the GLD, with the RSI for GDX pushing 75, and finally, with the newsletter community all falling on top of themselves with self-laudatory backslaps, I think it is time to adopt the contrarian view and step back.

It was less than five weeks ago, with gold and the miners all coming off sharply oversold conditions (RSI in the mid-high 30s), that I wrote that "carpe diem" in reference to ownership of GLD calls and my two favorite leveraged miners, NUGT and JNUG. Sure enough, JNUG has moved from $6.50 to $9.50 and NUGT from $14.50 to $22.10, while the GLD July $120 calls rocketed from $2.20 to $7.60. (Note: I did not get "top tick" for any of them, but did bank yet another decent 40% return on the miners, and a double and a half on the GLD calls).

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts gold and explains why he believes this is a good time to build positions.

With things shaping up so well for gold, we can certainly take any short-term correction in our stride, and more than that, we can seize upon it as an opportunity to build positions further across the sector, whether by means of ETFs, stocks or options, and of course, gold itself.

Several factors suggest that a modest short-term correction is likely before the major breakout occurs. Gold is overbought after its recent run-up and is rounding over beneath the major resistance approaching $1400, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. Thus, the appearance of a short-term bearish "shooting star" candlestick on its chart on Friday coupled with its latest COTs showing Commercial short and Large Spec long positions hitting rather extreme levels suggests that it is likely to react back over the next week or two to allow things to cool for a bit before the major breakout occurs. The current COT structure IS NOT regarded as bearish overall, because we would expect speculators to pile in at the start of a big move—positions can be expected to get much more extreme once the big breakout occurs, flying off the charts and staying high as the first major upleg of the new bull market unfolds.

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Gold Awaits the FOMC as Economic Data Send Mixed Signals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Who wouldn’t know the Spaghetti Western The Good, the Bad and the Ugly? In today’s analysis, we have important pieces of economic data starring in the first two roles. Retail sales and industrial production rebounded in May, while the Empire State Index plummeted in June. How will these reports affect tomorrow’s FOMC decision and the gold market?

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

What stands out from the long-term chart is that Silver tends to be pretty much dead for most of the time, only really coming alive towards the later stages of precious metals bull market manias when everyone begins piling in just before the bubble pops! Which is a warning not to get carried away with fantasy targets for Silver but try and keep things real by focusing on what silver has done in the past, namely the Silver price cap is $50.

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

These Two Charts Virtually Scream “Buy Silver” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

The Amount of Dollars in Existence

Silver is currently trading around $14.84 an ounce. This is around 30% of its 1980 all-time high of $50. However, this is an incomplete representation of what silver is really trading at, relative to US dollars.

When you look at the silver price, relative to US currency (the amount of actual US dollars) in existence, then it is at its lowest value it has ever been (see chart below).

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

What a remarkable day Friday has been! Going into the U.S. session open, we have seen gold challenging its early-June highs. The barrage of geopolitical news has been deafening and gold had literally nowhere to go but up. But something “unexpected” yet totally predictable happened to those who have jumped on the gold bandwagon. Friday’s U.S. session has sent gold lower. On huge volume. And not only gold, that is. Those looking at the charts’ bigger picture, those familiar with our analyses, hadn’t been surprised. Now that the dust is settled and gold pushes lower, let’s examine the aftermath. And draw lessons for the days ahead.