Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, September 23, 2019

Silver and the Yield Curve Inversion / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

Yield curve inversions have historically been great for silver prices. Currently we are experiencing such a phenomena, and again it is evidence of conditions that are conducive to some impressive silver rallies.

Below, is a long-term chart showing the spread between the 10-year Treasure Note Yield  and the 3-month Treasury Bill Rate.

Monday, September 23, 2019

Comparing Gold Producers to Main Stream Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Peter_Degraaf

Long term trends take a long time to reverse.  One such trend compares gold mining stocks to the S&P 500 stocks.  From 2002 until 2011 gold mining stocks outperformed generic stocks, as can be seen in the following chart.  (Charts courtesy Stockcharts.com).

Monday, September 23, 2019

The Incredible World of Gold Stock Chartology / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to start out by looking at the old ratio combo chart that has the GOLD:XAU ratio chart on top with the XAU on the bottom. I’m not going to go over all the details the ratio combo chart has, only to emphasize the 20 year 6 point parabolic arc which shows how gold had been outperforming the XAU until the small double top at 24.33 in late 2015. When the parabolic arc was broken to the downside in early 2016 that strongly suggested that it was going to be the XAU’s turn to outperform gold.

Initially, you can see the sharp vertical move down that broke the back of gold outperforming the XAU at 12.50. From the low in early 2016 the ratio had been building out the blue rising flag until the bottom rail was broken to the downside just 3 months ago in June. Since then the ratio has been in backtest mode to the bottom rail of the rising flag which looks like it could be coming to an end which shows up better on the weekly chart we’ll look at later.

Sunday, September 22, 2019

How Russia Seized Control of the Uranium Market / Commodities / Uranium

By: Richard_Mills

Critical Mass - A point or situation at which change occurs.

Just over a year ago Cameco made the difficult decision to close its MacArthur River and Key Lake mines, in response to low uranium prices, leaving the Canadian company’s flagship Cigar Lake facility as its only operating mine left in northern Saskatchewan, home to vast reserves of the nuclear fuel.  

The mine closures by Cameco were preceded by 20% production cuts in Kazakhstan, the number one uranium-producing country. The former Soviet bloc nation has said 2020-21 output will not rise above 2019 levels. In Canada, the second largest U producer, 2018 production was cut in half to 7,000 tonnes. 

An estimated 35% of uranium supply has been stripped from the market since Kazakhstan’s supply reductions in December 2017. 

While the mine closures kicked up the price of uranium in 2018, they haven’t been enough to build momentum. Spot uranium finished last year up just over 20%. Year to date 2019, triuranium octoxide, or U3O8, is down a disappointing 11.9%, trading at $25.25 per pound, as of Sept. 19. 

Saturday, September 21, 2019

Gold Leads, Will the Rest Follow? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Fund manager Matt Geiger provides his overview of the resource market and shares some principles he is using to invest in today's market. The natural resource landscape has shifted dramatically since the end of 2018. At the time, we were still nursing our wounds from an unexpectedly vicious 2018 and hoping to avoid a repeat performance in 2019. I did speculate that "we may have already exited the bear market as of late December 2018. The nickel price is up roughly 25% YTD, the gold price is up roughly 10% since early December, the TSXV is up 15% since mid-December, and the MJG partnership itself was up 20.5% in January alone."

In hindsight, it looks like we did indeed exit the bear market as of late December 2018. The nickel price is now up 54% YTD. The price of gold is now up 25% since earlier December. The MJG partnership was up 42% in the first half of the year. The major diversified miners have hit 52-week highs within the past 60 days. The major precious metal royalty names have hit either multi-year or all-time highs recently. The same applies to the GDX and GDXJ. These are the types of moves you'd expect to see in a mining bull market.

Friday, September 20, 2019

Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The amount of global debt with negative yields soared to $16 trillion, or more than 25 percent of the market. This number has nearly tripled since October 2018. In July, even the 30-year German government bonds went negative for the first time ever, while Nordea Bank, a leading Danish bank, said it will begin offering 20-year fixed-rate mortgages with zero interest, as well as 30-year mortgages at minus 0.5 percent. Isn’t this economic madness? And what does it imply for the gold market?

Normally, instead of spending it themselves, lenders offer the borrowers money, in return receiving the promise of being paid back, and interest. Negative bond yields seem to turn the credit relations upside down. But after closer examination, it turns out that the negative yields do not necessarily deny the laws of economics. The key to understand it is grasping that negative yield to maturity does not mean negative coupon payments. Negative yields imply losses for investors who purchase these bonds and hold them until maturity, not for all bond investors.

Friday, September 20, 2019

Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Just as we predicted, precious metals are setting up another extended momentum base/bottom that appears to be aligning with our prediction of an early October 2019 new upside price leg.

Recent news of the US Fed decreasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp as well as strength in the US stock market and US Dollar as eased fears and concerns across the global markets.  These concerns and fears are still very real as the overnight credit market has continue to illustrate.  Yet, the precious metals have retraced from recent highs and begun to form a momentum base which will likely become the floor for the next move higher.

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

History may not repeat itself to the letter but it certainly rhymes. That’s what the Fed watchers would say now. The Fed cut the interest rates for the second time this year and the price of gold declined again. What is going on?

Fed Trims Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on September 17-18th. In line with expectations, the U.S. central bank cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, for the second time this year:

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2/2 of my Silver Price 2019 trend forecast update - Part1 - Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update

So the Silver big question for 2019 is will the price be capped at resistance at $21 or like the Gold price breakout of its 5 year trading range to target the next resistance area of $25.

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

I am simply amazed at how much email I have been getting asking my opinion regarding the latest “manipulation” cases. And, many of those are asking me if I am finally convinced that the metals market was manipulated to drop from 2011 to 2015.

Well, let’s try to walk through the issues together.

Let’s start this article by identifying that about which we are speaking. You see, the great majority of those who read these manipulation cases believe that the manipulation addressed in these cases is what caused the metals market to drop from 2011 to 2015, and what caused a 70% cut in the price of silver. So, if you have clicked on this article to read me changing my position regarding that type of “manipulation,” you will be quite disappointed. And, if you actually believe in that perspective, I suggest you read on with an open mind, as you will see why you are 100% wrong in that belief.

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Monday’s spike in crude oil prices could be a game changer – for geopolitics, for the economy, and for investors.

Normally it would be foolhardy to draw big, sweeping conclusions from a single day’s trading activity.

But in this case, it’s not just the fact that oil prices surged 13% to over $62/barrel. Or even the fact that more than 5% of the world’s oil producing capacity suddenly got taken offline.

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Gold has been on a tear lately. This has lead to many of you asking me why the precious metal is breaking out and if this is the start of the next bull market.

Gold is rallying primarily due to central bank issuing forward guidance. What I mean by this is that globally central banks have made it clear that they are going to be cutting rates and launching new QE programs going forward.

This is resulting in bonds around the world rallying to the point of having NEGATIVE yields. What this means is that the person lending the money is PAYING the person borrowing the money for the right to lend!

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

On the weekend, there was a drone attack against the world’s largest oil processing facility and a major oilfield in Saudi Arabia. Oil prices have predictably spiked, but how will this geopolitical shock affect the gold market in the days ahead?

What Happened?

On Saturday, the drone bombings struck the Abqaiq oil-processing plant and the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia. Both are important facilities operated by Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer. Nobody was injured, but the strikes triggered large fires, disrupting the global oil supply.

The Houthis, the Iran-backed rebel army that has been fighting a Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen, claimed responsibility for the attack. However, for some people the sophistication of the attacks is the reason to believe that Iran is the one truly responsible.

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

JPMorgan’s Top Metals Trader in the Crosshairs for Illegal Gold and Silver Manipulation / Commodities / Market Manipulation

By: MoneyMetals

Michael Nowak, the global head of trading for both base and precious metals at JP Morgan Chase, has been charged by the US Justice department for his role in an illegal market manipulation operation. Executive Directors Gregg Smith and Christopher Jordan were also indicted.
The three are the latest targets in a widening DOJ criminal probe.

Nowak and Smith and Jordan are the third, fourth and fifth persons to be charged in the criminal price rigging scheme at  JPMorgan. They may not be the last. The bank is the most infamous amongst precious metals investors who have been crying foul over obvious price manipulation for years. 

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After the news of the drone attack on the Saudi Arabia oil refinery, traders knew this week would be full of bigger price moves, reversals and some real opportunity for profits.  We were also well aware of the risks of engaging in these market moves prior to fully understanding the dynamics of this event.  We heard from many of our friends in the industry about open positions that were not properly scaled to deal with risk – and we know some of our friends took a hit early today.

The real questions before skilled technical traders are:

What will happen with Oil and where will price find the first level of resistance?

What will happen to the US and foreign major markets related to this supply disruption?

Monday, September 16, 2019

Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Avi_Gilburt

Andy Hecht: Natural gas can be one of the most volatile commodities that trade on the futures market. Since 1990, the price has traded from lows at $1.02 to a high at $15.65 per MMBtu. Over the past three decades, the fundamentals for the natural gas market gave changed dramatically. Discoveries of massive natural gas reserves in the Marcellus and Utica share regions of the US and technological advances in hydraulic fracking increased the supply side of the fundamental equation.

Since necessity is the mother of invention, natural gas has replaced coal in the US for power generation. At the same time, technology to liquefy natural gas has expanded the addressable market for the energy commodity. Natural gas used to depend on the US pipeline network for delivery. Today, it travels around the world in liquid form by ocean vessels. Therefore, the demand side of the fundamental equation in natural gas expanded with the supply side.

Monday, September 16, 2019

Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break / Commodities / Uranium

By: Richard_Mills

One week ago Cameco announced it will maintain low output levels until uranium prices recover. The Canadian uranium miner also said it might cut production further, having already closed four mines in Canada and laid off 2,000 of its workers in the uranium mining hub of Saskatchewan.

Monday, September 16, 2019

Gold When Global Insanity Prevails / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger uses storytelling and personal experience to unpack the myths and machinations behind the precious metals and financial markets. "Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper." —Ayn Rand

Why don't we start things off a tad differently this evening? Let me relate to you all a parable from the Book of Quantitative Easing where all is good and noble in the world of government oversight, the most widely used oxymoron in the history of mankind.

Granny Smith, now in her late nineties, wakes up one morning and finds that her dear husband for nigh-on seventy years has gone on to meet his Maker. But alas, as distraught as one would expect her to be, she is covertly delighted because, well, old Egbert Smith was not exactly the man she married and being forced to change his diaper and his bedsheets each night had grown both tiresome and difficult.

Monday, September 16, 2019

What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

What if it’s not a new bull market for gold? What if gold prices are going lower – not higher?

Think it can’t happen? Think again.

In December 1987, gold prices stood at just over $500.00 per ounce. They had been on a tear for the previous three years after hitting a post-peak low of just under $300.00 per ounce in February 1985.

The increase in gold’s price of $200.00 per ounce may not sound like much, but it represents a sixty-seven percent increase over that three year period. Coming on the heels of a similar percentage decline after reaching an all-time high of $850.00 per ounce in January 1980, it was a welcome salve for those who had been wounded so severely.

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

It was a hot monetary policy meeting yesterday. Faced with slow inflation and bleak growth, the ECB eased again, delivering a fresh stimulus package. What does it mean for the gold market?

ECB Strikes Back in Response to Subdued Inflation

Amid the continued shortfall of inflation, the ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points from -0.40 to -0.50. Yes, you read it correctly, from negative 0.40 to negative 0.50. The subzero madness has deepened in the Eurozone. What is more, the central bank announced that the ultralow interest rates would remain until inflation reaches the target: