Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, January 12, 2018

Macroeconomic Outlook for 2018 and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Luckily or not, 2017 is behind us. It was a positive year for the gold market, as the yellow market gained more than 12 percent. However, investors are forward-looking, so let’s focus on what the coming months will bring. The next year will be shaped mostly by the following broad economic trends:

1. Global activity is improving.
2. Labor markets are strengthening further.
3. Subdued inflation is finally rising (but moderately).
4. Central banks are slowly reducing their monetary policy stimulus.
5. Interest rates are rising.

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Will Chinese Dragon Boost or Devour Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

China may slow down its U.S. debt buying. Will gold rally or plunge, then?

Dragons Love Hoarding Gold and Not Only

Dragons love gold. In Greek mythology, dragons were set by the gods to guard golden treasures. It makes perfect sense, since it would be rather difficult to find better guards. Everybody who watched The Hobbit series knows that this is true – the powerful Smaug hoarded a lot and was really obsessed with his shiny treasure.

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Gold Prices Rise To $1,326/oz as China U.S. Treasury Buying Report Creates Volatility / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Gold prices rise to $1,326/oz on concerns China may slow U.S. Treasury buying
– Equities fell sharply on the report as did Treasurys and the U.S. dollar
– Chinese officials think U.S. debt is becoming less attractive compared to other assets
– Trade tensions could provide a reason to slow down or halt U.S. debt purchases
– U.S. dollar vulnerable as China remains biggest buyer of U.S. sovereign debt
– Currency wars to return as China rejects U.S. hegemony in Asia

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Why Oil Should Be Supported in Weekly Chart / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

Hello fellow traders, in this blog post, we will discuss oil in a more bigger picture.

In the chart below, you can see crude oil futures on the weekly chart.

From the 02/08/2016 low, we can clearly see that the market has a potential 5 swing incomplete bullish sequence. It seems like that it is still in the fifth swing. The weekly target for us is between 68.53-86.82. Please note a 5 swing sequence is different than 5 waves impulse. Overall, we can conclude that we need more upside in oil and we suggest members to buy the instrument in 3-7-11 swings to the upside.

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Gold at all time in eight major emerging market currencies
– A stronger performance than seen when priced in USD, EUR or GBP
– As world steps away from US dollar hegemony expect new gold highs in $, € and £
– Gold is a hedge against currency debasement and depreciation of fiat currencies

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Here are the Key Levels in Gold & Gold Miners / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The rally in Gold and gold mining stocks easily surpassed our expectations and targets. The strength has been far more than we anticipated. The gold stocks blew past their 200-day moving averages while Gold blew past $1300/oz. Now it is time to take a technical look and focus on the key support and resistance targets.

The strength of the rebound pushed the miners well beyond their 200-day moving averages and to their June and October highs. GDX is consolidating just below $24 while GDXJ is consolidating just below $35. If this consolidation turns into a correction then GDX and GDXJ could find support at their 200-day moving averages which are at $22.71 and $33.37 respectively. As you can see, should GDX and GDXJ be able to exceed recent peaks then they could rally towards important resistance levels. Those are $25.50 for GDX and $38 for GDXJ.

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Outlook for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Traders for Light crude oil continue to see higher price levels over the near term. Front-month futures prices reflect their bullish outlook (chart 1).

The expectation is for $63 to $65 per barrel by late Q1.

The one caveat is that U.S. production appears set to explode later this year.

Tuesday, January 09, 2018

Gold Prices Choppy after Payrolls / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The U.S. economy added only 148,000 jobs in December. Gold prices reacted in a choppy way, confusing some analysts. Why?

December Payrolls Disappoint

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased only 148,000 in December, the slowest pace in three months. The employment gains were generally widespread, but the biggest employers were construction (+30,000), leisure and hospitality (+29,000), education and health services (+28,000), and manufacturing (+25,000). The latter rise is a particularly bright spot, given the not-so-distant problems of the sector.  On the other hand, retail trade cut 20,000 jobs, which confirms that some traditional brick-and-mortar stores struggle.

Tuesday, January 09, 2018

More Important Than Gold’s Bottoming Price  / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Time is more important than price. That’s what we – investors – are often made to believe regarding the future price movement. And rightfully so. The price could reach a bottom several dollars ahead of the predicted price target or it could break through it, leaving investors wondering, if there was a breakdown and thus they should expect to see another big downswing shortly. With time, things are clearer. The time for a given move is up and the price reverses. When is gold likely to finally bottom?

Between August and October 2018. That’s the most up-to-date estimate based on the data that we have right now. Here’s why (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Tuesday, January 09, 2018

Getting Bullish on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss gold's recent moves and potential signs of a bull market.

Gold is up nine of the last 12 Januaries with an average gain of over 4%, and the trend has continued in 2018 with gold reaching an intraday high of $1,327 so far this year. From December 19 of last year, gold rose 10 trading days in a row. Is this another rally destined to disappoint investors or the resumption of the gold bull market?

Monday, January 08, 2018

Gold – What Are We Waiting For? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Kelsey_Williams

The other shoe to drop? The next big move? Up or down?

Gold’s reign as the “next big thing” ended seven years ago. Too many people don’t want to admit that, but its true. Those who are ‘bullish’ on gold cannot let go.

Their behavior is typical of those who have missed the boat. And they don’t want to admit it, or believe it. And their problem is compounded by the fact that they originally viewed gold as a quality investment. Now they continue to point out all of the fundamental reasons gold should go much higher. We are told it is undervalued, unappreciated, unloved. And, of course, the price is manipulated, too.

Sunday, January 07, 2018

Commodities the Return To Inflation? / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: WMA

The headline in this Thursday’s Financial Times reads: “Commodities prices hit highest point since 2014”.

The FT article begins: “The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks price of 22 raw materials, has hit its highest level since 2014 when the oil market price crash started.”

A small problem might be that the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index does not include Energy or Precious Metals, which are in other Bloomberg indexes. In fact, in the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index is a grouping of Raw Industrials and Food Stuffs. The Raw Industrials includes burlap, copper scrap, cotton, hides, lead scrap, print cloth, rosin, rubber, steel scrap, tallow, tin, wool tops, and zinc. Foodstuffs include butter, cocoa beans, corn, cottonseed oil, hogs, lard, steers, sugar, and wheat. 

Sunday, January 07, 2018

Natural Gas Got Bomb Cyclone in the New Year / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: EconMatters

Natural gas is the dog that got its day in the New Year trading at $175/MMBtu spot in New York. Less than a month ago, Gas Exporting Countries Forum expected lower natural gas prices “over the next two decades” mostly due to a surge in supplies from unconventional sources.

With the sever winter storm hitting much of North America, temperatures have been tumbling since the start of the New Year. Meteorologists dubbed this arctic winter storm "bomb cyclone" because of the extreme drops in pressure over a short period of time. This unusual freezing cold weather has also had a major impact on U.S. commodity markets, natural gas, in particular.

Saturday, January 06, 2018

Gold Stocks Upside Huge 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have huge upside potential in 2018, likely the best among stock-market sectors.  They really lagged gold last year, so a major mean-reversion catch-up rally is coming.  The gold miners are universally ignored and deeply undervalued relative to the metal which drives their profits.  And gold itself is likely to power dramatically higher this year as euphoric record-high stock markets inevitably start to falter.

Gold has always been the leading contrarian investment, tending to move counter to stock markets.  So not surprisingly investment demand stalled last year as the extreme taxphoria-fueled stock surge blasted relentlessly higher.  When stock markets apparently do nothing but rally indefinitely, investors feel no need to prudently diversify their portfolios with the anti-stock trade gold.  So they ignored the yellow metal in 2017.

Saturday, January 06, 2018

Four Commodity Charts For the “There is No Inflation” Crowd / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Graham_Summers

I keep reading articles claiming that inflation is nowhere to be found.

If that is true, explain the following four charts.

Copper has broken out of a 10-year downtrend.

Saturday, January 06, 2018

Precious Metals Markets Outlook 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The first trading days of 2018 are confirming signs of renewed investor interest in the precious metals sector after a long period of malaise.

Gold and silver markets entered the year with some stealth momentum after quietly posting gains late in 2017. Gold finished the year above $1,300/oz. – its best yearly close since 2012.

Friday, January 05, 2018

The Gold Market in 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

So another year has passed. How quickly it happened! But we hope that you did not get bored, and instead took time to learn more about the fascinating gold market. At first glance, 2017 seems to be a dull period for the yellow metal, as it was traded within a narrow range of $1,200-$1,300 for most of the year.

However, all that glitters is not gold, and all that does not fluctuate like Bitcoin is not uninteresting. Actually, the price of bullion gained more than 12 percent, as one can see in the chart below.

Friday, January 05, 2018

Spectre and Meltdown Highlight Online Banking and Digital Gold Risks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Critical hardware flaw breaks basic security: risks to online banking & digital assets
– Nearly all computers worldwide, smartphones and other devices – exposed to major security risk
– Two separate security flaws identified in devices powered by Intel, ARM and AMD chips
– Vulnerability known about for six months by tech insiders
– Cyber crime represents the biggest transfer of economic wealth in history
– Cyber crime damage costs to hit $6 trillion annually by 2021
– All digital assets and information at risk
– Crypto currencies, digital assets including gold exposed
– Physical gold’s benefits highlighted

Editor: Mark O’Byrne

Friday, January 05, 2018

Three Key Takeaways from December 2017 FOMC Minutes for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Yesterday, the minutes of the FOMC December meeting were released. What do they say about the Fed’s stance and what do they mean for the gold market?

The Fed Is Divided over Number of Hikes in 2018

At the December meeting, the U.S. central bank increased the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a range 1.25-1.50 percent. The move was widely expected by investors, but there was no unanimity at the meeting as two FOMC members dissented. The Fed officials were also divided over the forecast of three rate hikes in 2018. The hawks noted that more hikes would be appropriate as financial conditions had not tightened since the Fed started raising rates at the end of 2015. On the other hand, the doves pointed out that too aggressive hiking might prevent a sustained return of inflation:

Friday, January 05, 2018

Don’t Look Now, but Gold Just Finished Its Best Year Since 2011 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Metals investors may have missed it given the gloomy sentiment that plagued markets for much of 2017, but gold just finished its best year since 2011.

Perhaps in a year like the one just passed, 13% gains are simply not inspiring. U.S. stocks finished about 25% higher for the year, and crypto-currencies including Bitcoin left all other asset classes in the dust. Bitcoin gained roughly 1,400%.