Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Agricultural Commodity ETF Tests Resistance / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Not much of anything going on in the equity or bond markets since the FOMC announcement, however, in general, the equity market appears bid, while the bond market appears offered for the time being. Perhaps the most important reaction to the FOMC statement has been the climb in euro/$ from 1.5540 to 1.5640, which has popped the grains (wheat, corn, beans)... which in turn has popped the DBA (DB Agricultural Commodity, ETF) to test near term resistance at 41.00. If hurdled, let's expect the DBA to surge to retest the June high at 41.42. See our chart.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Gold Lower Ahead of US Fed Interest Rate Indecision on Dollar and Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD ticked lower in London on Wednesday, dropping $4 per ounce from last night's close as currency, bond and stock market traders awaited today's decision and statement on US interest rates from the Federal Reserve."The Dollar managed to stabilize [overnight] in after-market trading," notes Manqoba Madinane at Standard Bank in Johannesburg , "possibly indicating that investors anticipate hawkish comments from the Fed on inflation today."
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Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Alternative Energy ETFs / Commodities / Renewable Energy
By: Richard_Shaw
As you consider alternative energy (solar and wind, in particular) keep their relative size in mind. Solar is currently 1% of 7% of US energy sources. Wind is currently 5% of 7% of energy sources.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Agri-Food Bull Markets Driven by Fundamentals / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
The term “bubble” is thrown around a lot. It is especially used by analysts that do not understand why the price of something is rising. If an analyst failed to forecast the rising price, it must be a bubble. Maybe yes, maybe no. Bubbles have three characteristics. Importantly, bubbles are built on (1)a widely accepted consensus forecast of (2)rising price (3)financed by debt. Such would aptly describe the global housing bubble which has burst. It would also be an apt description of developments in the paper oil market. Only in part does it explain the price developments in Agri-Food. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Gold Rallies on Negative Real Interest Rates / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES ticked higher in Asian and early London trade on Tuesday, recovering one-third of Monday's 2.7% drop as crude oil pushed higher and European stock markets sank.
The Dollar held flat ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve vote on interest rates. It's widely expected to leave the real returns paid to cash 2% below zero.
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Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Energy Use Per Unit of GDP by Country / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Richard_Shaw
Countries that require less energy per unit of GDP may fare better during a period of high energy prices.
This table shows the Kg of oil equivalent consumed per unit of GDP on a purchasing power parity basis for 32 countries, as reported by the United Nations.
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Monday, June 23, 2008
Gold's Corrective Upleg is Complete / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although the weakness in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has not inflicted much if any meaningful technical damage to the overall pattern off of the 5/1 low of 83.57, today's big gap down certainly argues that the current upleg off of the 6/12 low at 84.83 into Friday's high at 89.61 is complete! In addition, my expectation of an approaching significant low closer to the timeframe of the bottoming of the 15-18 week cycle low between July 7 and 14 suggests that today's weakness is the start of the road towards such a low, which figures to be VERY important indeed. Let's expect the GLD to press towards a test of the rising 200 DMA in the 85-84 target zone in the upcoming hours/days -- and possibly decline into the 82.90/50 area prior to a powerful upside reversal.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2008
China Raises Fuel Prices: Is this the End of the Oil boom? / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Money_and_Markets
Last Thursday, China roiled the oil market, announcing it would raise gas and diesel prices by about 46 cents per gallon in order to reduce demand. In a matter of minutes, oil prices skidded lower.
Before you knew it, America's TV news and finance channels were all over the story. They asked the burning question, "Will higher prices and lower demand in China kill this great bull market in oil?" And they presented a seemingly endless parade of oil bears and stock bulls who almost unanimously proclaimed that oil prices were about to crater.
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Monday, June 23, 2008
Gold Remains Firm on Stagflation Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $901.70 in New York on Friday and was down 40 cents and silver closed at $17.33, up 1 cent. Gold was up over 4% last week and the close above $900 may prove important from a technical point of view in the coming weeks.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2008
Gold Holds Ahead of US Interest Rate Decision / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back an early 0.6% rally in London on Monday, trading just shy of last week's close at $902 per ounce as crude oil bounced and European equities held flat.The world's biggest investment banks, meantime, issued a series of notes accusing each other of ever greater write-downs for the April-June quarter.
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Monday, June 23, 2008
Another Gold Attack, then North to $2,000! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Ordinarily, gold would be right before a major breakout point at this time, which should occur this week or the following week at the latest – but Wall Street and the entire US financial structure are so near a complete breakdown that another attack on gold must be expected. Here are the reasons why: Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Silver Fan and Pennant Corrective Pattern Resolving Towards Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
The arguments relating to gold apply in large part to silver, so here we will only detail the important differences and readers are referred to the parallel Gold Market update.
Like gold, silver has been marking out a 3-arc Fan Correction following its March peak, and the chief difference between the two is that silver looks even stronger. On the 1-year chart we can see that silver has marked out a more solid looking base line of support between about $16.20 and $16.50 above its rising 200-day moving average and we can also see that it is closer to breaking out above the 3rd fanline of the fan pattern.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Gold on the Cusp of a Major Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
Although gold has remained in the doldrums since the last update, there is plenty of evidence that another strong uptrend is solely a question of when, not if. On the 1-year chart we can see that the reactive phase in force from mid-March is taking the form of 3-arc Fan Correction that is now believed to be quite close to completion. These fan patterns typically start out with a steep, panicky selloff as intermediate traders realize that the game of over for the time being and hit the exits. This is normally followed by a significant bounce and then by a more measured decline that frequently wreaks the most damage because it drags on for alot longer, although that was not the case here. Then, after another bounce renewed decline sets in, but this time there is little selling pressure behind it, and this downleg frequently terminates only a little below the 2nd drop and sometimes at or above it, which is a sign of strength. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Gold Long-term Rating Once more Turns Bullish / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Gold was up every day this past week (and Friday of the previous) and still not really showing any great upside strength. Gold bugs always seem to think that up is the only direction but sometimes we get surprises. Are we in for one ahead?
GOLD : LONG TERM
With the continuous upside action there has been some changes to the long term indicators this past week. The price of gold has once more moved above its moving average line and the line remains in a positive slope.
Friday, June 20, 2008
SILVER and its Investment and Industrial Sides / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Morgan
What drives the price of silver? Certainly it is a function of buying and selling pressure, and primarily, this price setting mechanism takes place on the COMEX. However, so much has been written recently about short selling, price management, and naked sales, and on and on, that I wanted to take a more basic look at demand. Real demand and investment demand, regardless of how the price is set, fall into two main categories. We have investment demand (monetary demand), and we have industrial demand. In this year's World Silver Survey 2008, sponsored by the Silver Institute, under the Investment Chapter it states, “Investor activity was the main driver of the high and volatile silver price in 2007.”Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 20, 2008
Invsting in Sliver- SLV Silver ETF / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Zeal_LLC
On April 28th, 2006 , Barclays launched the first silver exchange-traded fund in the US . Traded on the AMEX as SLV, the iShares Silver Trust was eagerly anticipated by silver investors ahead of its birth. It ushered in a new era where vast pools of stock-market capital gained an easy conduit into the physical silver market.
One of the reasons investors originally liked SLV so much is silver consumers aggressively lobbied the SEC to kill it. The Silver Users Association wrote some fascinating letters to the SEC bemoaning the birth of SLV as the end of cheap silver as we knew it. Established in 1947, the SUA is an organization of industrial users of silver in applications including photographic, electronic, silverware, jewelry, and other fabrication.
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Friday, June 20, 2008
Gold BREAKOUT! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Peter_Degraaf
Gold is breaking out on the upside today, after having been contained in a bullish pennant formation for the past 93 days. This 93 day period satisfies the time element, (referring to the average of the late spring – early summer pull-backs in gold), since the current bull market began, in 2001.
Virtually every year we witness a Christmas rally in gold, with the seasonal lows coming in the spring, following a correction towards the 200DMA.
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Friday, June 20, 2008
Investors Reallocate from Oil to Gold as Inflation Defense / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES ticked higher from an overnight lull early Friday, recording the highest Morning Fix in London since June 9th at precisely $900.00 per ounce.Crude oil futures bounced more than 1% from Thursday's sudden $4 sell-off to $131 per barrel, while European stock markets dropped towards a three-month low, led by banking shares.
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Friday, June 20, 2008
Metals Market Trend Analysis 2008 to 2009- Part 1 / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: John_Lee
Oftentimes I talk to investors, even sophisticated ones, and I realize that they treat metals as a group. Particularly in the subset of base metals, most point out the price action of copper and conclude that all base metals are in a raging bull with no signs of slowing down. Close examination of correlation between various metal prices reveals a very different story, as we shall illustrate. (most charts here are from my friends at Kitco.com)
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Thursday, June 19, 2008
South African Gold Production Slumps by 10% Driving Gold Price Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $891.30 in New York yesterday and was up $6.90 and silver closed at $17.31, up 26 cents. Since then g old has again traded in a range between $88 5 and $89 5 in Asia n and in early European trading this morning .Gold rose in early trading in Europe when oil prices rose on news that Anglo-Dutch oil giant Shell had halted production at a major offshore oil facility in Nigeria because of a militant attack . It has since given back those early gains and dollar strength this morning seems to have led to a sell off in gold.
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