Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Silver Price Sentiment Cycle

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Sep 15, 2014 - 03:25 PM GMT

By: DeviantInvestor

Commodities

The following chart shows:

Silver Prices: 1972 – 1979

  •  Silver moved upward from about $1.40 in 1971, rallied to about $6.40 in March 1974, and fell to about $4.30 in August 1977.
  • The March 1974 peak took about 3 years and ended about 4.55 times its starting point.
  • The August 1977 low took another 3.5 years and fell about 33% from the peak price.

Now look at the following chart of silver prices from 2008 – 2014.

Silver Prices: 2008 – 2014

  • Silver moved upward from about $8.53 in October 2008, rallied to over $48 in April 2011, and fell slightly below $19 in September 2014.
  • The April 2011 peak took about 2.5 years and ended at about 5.7 times its starting point.
  • The correction into the September 2014 low has taken about 3.4 years and declined about 61% from its peak.

Do you see the similarities?  I have placed sentiment labels on both graphs.

Sentiment             1971 – 1977              2008 – 2014

 

Takeoff                      1.40                            $8.53

Bear Trap                  2.50                            14.70

Enthusiasm               3.50                            23.00

Euphoria                    4.50                            29.00

Greed & Delusion     6.00                            44.00

Bull Trap                    3.80                            27.50

Denial                        3.90                            26.50

Capitulation               3.80                            19.00

Despair                      4.15                            18.70

What is Different This Time?

Probably not much!  The patterns are similar, but the potential rally from present prices in 2014 looks like it could be even larger than the 1977 – 1980 rally.  Why?  See below.  In the early 1970s silver went from “ho-hum” to “enthusiasm” to “wow, who would believe it could go to $6.40?”  After the 2008 crash silver went from “going back to 5 bucks” to “enthusiasm” to “wow, who would believe it could go above $45?”

As a reminder, after silver rallied to the then astounding price of $6.40 in early 1974, it crashed back to $3.80 and then traded sideways for 2 years.  Less than 3 years later it had briefly traded at $50.00, due to a combination of inflation, debt and deficits, political issues, conflict with the USSR, fear, a market corner, and dollar weakness.

After rallying to another “unthinkable” price of nearly $50 in 2011, silver crashed to about $18.50.  However, in another 3 -5 years, perhaps in 2017 – 2019, I expect silver will have rallied to $50, $100 or maybe $300 or more, due to a combination of multiple wars, unpayable debts, inflation, deficits, bailouts, bail-ins, massive “money printing,” inflationary expectations, QE, potential hyperinflation, considerable fear, currency wars, counter-party risk, political issues, derivatives, conflict with Russia, economic and dollar weakness, and the weakening or outright loss of the dollar’s global reserve currency status.

We know that financial television (and others) expect (hope) the S&P to rally and silver to collapse, but we must remember who pays the bills for financial television, buys the advertising, and supports the various fictions in our current economic and political environment.

Along with many others, I expect that silver will rally for the next 3 – 7 years.

Favorable for Silver Prices                Unfavorable for Silver Prices

More debt and more war                            Fiscal sanity and peace

Congressional corruption                           Congressional honesty

Weaker dollar                                             Strong dollar

$10 gasoline                                              $3 gasoline

Considerable price inflation                       2% inflation

Asian gold and silver purchases               Weak demand from Asia

Ukraine and Middle-East wars                   Peace in our time

Low congressional approval ratings           High congressional approval ratings

Amateur hour in foreign policy                   Strong foreign policy

Money flow out of bonds into silver            Money flow out of silver into bonds

Money flow out of S&P                               Money flow out of silver

More restrictions on mining                        Fewer restrictions on mining

Lack of exploration for new silver               Discovery of new silver deposits

Increasing energy prices                            Decreasing energy prices

More fiscal insanity                                     A balanced budget

More “money printing”                                Back to a modified gold standard

I expect that silver will rally well over $100 in the next few years because most or all of the “favorable” and few or none of the “unfavorable” items listed above will occur.

Does this month look more like another bottom in silver and another top in the S&P, or does it look like a new paradigm with responsible leadership in the political and financial worlds, lasting employment, prosperity for all, declining debt, and a balanced government budget?

Are you buying silver instead of bonds?  Are you buying silver instead of S&P indexed funds?  Are you buying gold instead of earning 0.10% interest in your saving account? Are you preparing for a financial future based on real assets instead of paper promises secured by the integrity of politicians and bankers?

GE Christenson aka Deviant Investor

If you would like to be updated on new blog posts, please subscribe to my RSS Feed or e-mail

© 2014 Copyright Deviant Investor - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in