Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Anticipating a Top in Natural Gas / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Mike_Paulenoff
I am anticipating the establishment of a meaningful top in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (AMEX: UNG) in the vicinity of 53.00-55.00 in the upcoming days/weeks. Both my pattern and momentum work indicate that such a top is in development at this time, but that does not preclude the UNG from climbing to marginal new highs above 55.06 during the process.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Gold Follows Euro Lower / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD fell hard early Wednesday in London, losing 1.5% from Tuesday's peak to reach a two-day low as shock data from Germany drove the Euro lower against the US Dollar on the currency markets.Crude oil meantime pushed above $122 per barrel on news of terrorist attacks in Nigeria , the world's seventh-largest producer.
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Wednesday, May 07, 2008
US Economy No Recovery Whilst Housing Bust Continues- Gold $1200 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Once every several months, an opportunity is presented on a silver platter to purchase a spectacular investment in a strong uptrend, with loud indications of continued upward trend in price. Gold is heading well past $1200 and silver is heading well past $25 in the next several months, despite the orchestrated annihilation of honest valid reporting. How many times have the clowns on Wall Street and the financial subservient media networks claimed that the worst was over for the US Dollar, gold, the US Economy, the housing market, and bank bond losses? Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Gold Strategy- Buying on the Dips / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Wheat price has broken. Rice price has a short-term top. Corn may be topping out. Gold is down. Silver has taken a dive. Housing prices are in the middle of decade long bear market. Yet, oil futures continue to move higher, fueled by margin led speculation. All of that oil action is happening when no shortages of petroleum seem to exist anywhere. Oil price is rising due to 93+% financing of the purchase price of a futures contract.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Gold Follows Crude Oil Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD for physical delivery hit a one-week high at the London opening on Tuesday, unwinding one-third of the last fortnight's 12% plunge as crude oil hit new record highs above $120 per barrel.World stock markets fell, led by banks and home-building stocks, despite Bank of America confirming that it will push ahead with its $4.1 billion purchase of Countrywide, the biggest US mortgage lender.
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Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Gold Headed for Summer Seasonal Weakness? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The gold market in the past has been seasonal, with the rule being, "Sell in May and go away". This lull in demand usually started in May and lasted until the middle-to-end of August, with the main demand appearing in the final quarter of the year and lasting until the end of May. Will it be the same this year? Bear in mind a big fall has happened already this last month.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Thoughts on Global Weather, Food Supplies and Inflation / Commodities / Climate Change
By: David_Petch
A brief note: There is really nothing further to add from prior updates of the S&P, HUI, XOI, USD or TNX as the patterns appear to be playing out as forecast (the HUI is taking slightly longer and may be putting in a slightly different count). Is there such thing as having an impartial Elliott Wave count…everyone has a bias in some form or another. The way someone perceives market action to follow (inflation or deflation) will affect their logical processes for how labeling schemes “should” appear. This thought would be equivalent to a downhill skier at the bottom of a hill expecting to magically ski to the top…right idea but wrong location (the skier at the top recognized the landscape correctly and got it right). Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 05, 2008
Has Europe Declared War on the US Dollar? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Footprints lead to London Market Attack.
Gold suffers Collateral Damage.
When Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg's premier and the chair of Europe's finance ministers, announced on April 23 that "financial markets and other actors [had not] correctly and entirely understood the message of the [recent] G7 meeting," his words went essentially unheeded. The Daily Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard put that message in clear language. "[Juncker], he said, "has given the clearest warning to date that the world authorities may take action to halt the collapse of the dollar and undercut commodity speculation by hedge funds."
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Monday, May 05, 2008
Gold and Silver Update: All That Glitters / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“There's little evidence to suggest anyone actually wants a strong dollar, just a stable currency that will make business more transparent. The wave of inflation triggered by the current easy money policy has only just begun to materialize but, because of the consumer's link to interest rates through their home mortgages, it will be all but impossible for the Fed to make any more than token hikes in their target rate. What's more, because the spread between Fed funds and Libor remains stubbornly wide, it's quite possible the Fed will not be finished cutting rates this week, even if it pauses, as interbank lending continues to be fearful.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 05, 2008
Factors In Defense of Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Frank_Holmes
The price of gold has corrected by close to 20 percent since peaking on March 17. If you have been listening to the popular press and business TV, you may be convinced that the gold and commodity “bubbles” have popped.
Once you back away from the day-to-day noise and put things into perspective, we believe this correction in gold, while painful in the short term, is just another pause in a long-term secular bull market. As it has been said, bull markets climb a wall of worry.
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Sunday, May 04, 2008
Gold Severe Downtrend to Possibly Towards $660 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Up, down, up, down, up but in the end the downs have it. For every $5 to $8 that gold goes up it goes down by $20. That's not the way to new highs. For now it looks like the down side is the direction of least resistance but for how long?
GOLD : LONG TERM
With the confirmation of a long term P&F bear market in progress this is what the long term P&F chart looks like now. The two previous lows were breached earlier at the $900 level and the up trend line was finally breached at the $870 level on Wednesday.
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Perhaps 60% of today's Crude Oil Price is Pure Speculation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: F_William_Engdahl
The price of crude oil today is not made according to any traditional relation of supply to demand. It's controlled by an elaborate financial market system as well as by the four major Anglo-American oil companies. As much as 60% of today's crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds. It has nothing to do with the convenient myths of Peak Oil. It has to do with control of oil and its price. How?
First, the crucial role of the international oil exchanges in London and New York is crucial to the game. Nymex in New York and the ICE Futures in London today control global benchmark oil prices which in turn set most of the freely traded oil cargo. They do so via oil futures contracts on two grades of crude oil—West Texas Intermediate and North Sea Brent.
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Friday, May 02, 2008
Junior Precious Metals Mining Companies Risk / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: David_Morgan
Dear David,
Thank you very much for your hard work and excellent research. Your level approach to the metals has long been a beacon to follow.
Thank you.
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Friday, May 02, 2008
Junior Gold Mining Stocks in the Midst of Fear Driven Sentiment Storm / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
While recent activity in the gold stock sector has caused many of its battle-hardened investors to capitulate, the tried and true speculators still holding strong in the junior-gold-stock realm are feeling beaten and bloodied.
As a speculator in junior gold stocks I have not been immune to the carnage in this small sector either. And it's not difficult to hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth. The juniors are in the midst of a fear-driven sentiment storm that is fierce and unforgiving.
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Friday, May 02, 2008
The Death Of Gold and Lessons from History / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
A couple of weeks back I put out an article saying that "The Shoeshine Boy" principle may have flagged a major top in the gold market. The Times cover trumpeting gold was published one trading day before gold's $1030 top and is shown below.
Not surprisingly this generated a number of emails from gold bulls which with one exception disagreed to the point of employing four letter words you would not even use against alleged members of a gold cartel. Let me clarify one point, the use of the phrase "Death of Gold" was a play on the phrase "Death of Equities" though some readers thought this meant gold going back to $300 for the next 20 years.
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Friday, May 02, 2008
Gold Holds Above Four Month Lows Against Increasingly Bullish US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES ticked higher from a four-month low early Friday, adding 0.9% to $855.90 per ounce before giving back $3 in London as world stock markets rose sharply and bond yields fell.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 02, 2008
Precious Metals Tumble Ahead of Today's US Non-Farm Payrolls / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
The sharp sell off in the precious metal markets continued yesterday with gold down $13.80 to $848.90 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was down 38 cents to $16.12 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $854.25, £429.92 and €551.31 (from $863.50, £434.64 €556.74).Should there be a continuance of the recent trend of dollar strength and oil weakness today then we could see gold test the 200 day moving average at $823.
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Friday, May 02, 2008
Rice Prices Fall Sharply After Food Crisis Rally on Government Export Controls / Commodities / Food Crisis
By: Jason_Simpkins
The price of rice finally started to moderate this week, with rice futures sinking for a fifth straight day. Rice has retreated 11.6% on the Chicago Board of Trade since hitting an all-time high last Thursday.
But this decline is likely just the start for rice prices, which have been artificially inflated by government controls and may continue to plummet by as much as 20%.
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Friday, May 02, 2008
Gold Stocks- Time to Buy? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Brian_Bloom
From a trading perspective, the charts are showing that it might be “buying time” in gold shares.
Let's look at three relationships:
- The relationship of the speculative $HUI to the less speculative $XAU
- The relationship of the $HUI to the gold price
- The relationship of the $XAU to the gold price
Friday, May 02, 2008
Uranium Stocks Index Trend Still Bearish / Commodities / Uranium
By: Merv_Burak
I keep looking at the chart to see if there is something bright to write about but nothing, at least nothing of any real significance. There are some signs that things might be getting brighter but they would be signs mostly in my mind rather than anything concrete. I guess the most positive action one can grab on to is the fact that once the Index fell below that “box” that it was in for so long, that the Index hasn't yet dropped like a rock, as might have been expected. I'm hoping things do perk up soon because as long as things remain bearish readers start to lose interest and sooner or later I'll end up writing these commentaries only for myself.Read full article... Read full article...