Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, July 29, 2018

Gold Shorts Near Record! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold continues to drift near summer-doldrums lows, feeding and intensifying bearish sentiment.  But an exceedingly-bullish event just happened which will ignite a major new upleg.  Speculators’ gold-futures short positions have soared near all-time record highs!  That means the recent heavy gold selling is exhausted, and massive proportional short-covering buying is imminent.  That will catapult gold much higher.

Short-term gold price action is dominated by speculators’ gold-futures trading.  This is counterintuitive as this group of traders and the capital they control are small compared to investors and their vast funds.  But the futures guys still wield wildly-disproportional outsized influence over gold.  It’s impossible to game short-term gold action if you’re not watching and analyzing speculators’ collective gold-futures trading activity.

Sunday, July 29, 2018

Conflicting Views on Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Recent days were good for oil bulls. Thanks to their action, the price of the commodity came back to around $70 and one of the daily indicators even generated a buy signal. Did the outlook turn to bullish? In our opinion, it didn’t. Furthermore, it seems that a fresh July low is still ahead of us. Why? The answer is quite simple - an analogy to the past.

Saturday, July 28, 2018

Strong US Dollar Could Cap Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The strength of the U.S. dollar poses an obstacle to further gains in oil prices.

President Trump's trade war with China, which is still in its early stages, has already battered the yuan. The dollar has gained more than 8 percent against the Chinese currency since March. As Reuters points out, in dollar terms the price of Brent oil has climbed 9 percent this year, but in yuan terms oil is now nearly 14 percent more expensive.

Friday, July 27, 2018

Gold Stocks Testing Last Ditch Support / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Although precious metals have not rebounded too strongly yet, the long awaited summer rally could be underway (at least in Gold). Gold is oversold and its sentiment is overly bearish. But it is holding important support in the low $1200s. Silver has begun to rally after breaking down from a triangle consolidation. The gold stocks held up well during recent carnage in the metals but are struggling around very important support levels. The nature of their potential rebound is important as they try and maintain current support.

Friday, July 27, 2018

Silver Threads among the Gold: What the Tea Leaves Seem to Be Telling Us / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The ongoing July silver (and gold) slam has a 2008 feel about it. Important data point elements are different, but there's an air of panic on the part of physical precious metals' owners.

"Major trend lines" being broken to the downside; physical metals' buying (in the U.S. off significantly so far on the year; (some) long-term silver holders giving up the ghost and selling their metal below spot.

Friday, July 27, 2018

Supposedly Bullish Gold’s CoT Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

At first sight, yesterday’s session was quite boring – gold ended the session practically unchanged while silver and mining stocks were only a little higher. The USD Index was practically unchanged. But just because nothing happened in the market in terms of the daily closing prices, it doesn’t mean that we don’t have anything interesting to discuss. We do. There is a boomerang topic that just came back once again – the Commitment of Traders report for gold seems to be favoring higher gold prices as the current readings were seen at previous local bottoms. Are we going to see a CoT-driven rally shortly?

Thursday, July 26, 2018

Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum Commodities Set Up for a Rally / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund provides copper, gold, platinum, silver and US dollar updates at what he calls a "key juncture."Commodities, including gold and silver, have plunged to become so deeply oversold that a snapback rally looks likely soon. This could be sharp and could trigger a wave of short covering. Such a rally is likely to be sparked by a dollar reaction, as we will see, but it is likely to be followed by further heavy losses across the sector if a general market crash ensues as expected.

We will start by looking at the latest dollar index chart, as a dollar reaction will be what ignites a commodity rally. The 2-year chart for the dollar index shows that the dollar is rounding over beneath a zone of resistance that dates back to a reversal that occurred at this level last October and November. The pattern that has formed from last July looks like a large head-and-shoulders bottom, with the right shoulder of the pattern about to form.

Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Gold & Silver Need THIS to Unfold before They Rally Sharply Higher... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Greg Weldon, CEO and president of Weldon Financial. Greg has over three decades of market research and trading experience, specializing in the metals and commodity markets, and his close connection with the metals led him to author a book back in 2006, titled Gold Trading Boot Camp, where he accurately predicted the implosion of the U.S. credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce.

He's a regular presenter at financial conferences throughout the country, and is a highly sought-after guest on many financial shows. And it's always great to have him on the Money Metals Podcast. Greg, good to talk to you again. Welcome back.

Monday, July 23, 2018

The Global Cannabis Market Is Set To Explode / Commodities / Cannabis

By: OilPrice_Com

As the global marijuana industry booms, one little company has just hit a huge payday.

Scythian Biosciences Corp. (TSXV: SCYB.V; OTC:SCCYF) is a tiny company with a big secret: a way to turn cannabis assets across the world into investments worth hundreds of millions.

The company is making a transition from biosciences to investment, and it’s just struck it rich.

Scythian has accomplished a huge coupe: it’s agreed to sell its assets in Jamaica and Latin America to Aphria, the marijuana giant, for $193 million.

 That’s because weed is GLOBAL. It’s much, much more than Canada and the US.

Sunday, July 22, 2018

You Buy the Fear in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

This article does not speak to gold’s proper fundamentals, which are not yet very healthy (although some positive signs are finally gathering). For the proper counter-cyclical atmosphere to engage gold bulls would need have risk ‘on’ markets and assets crack. Yet, gold’s (and silver’s) price may well bottom before readily obvious fundamental improvement is apparent to a majority (as was the case in Q1 2016). 

Far too much analysis is put out there linking gold with inflation. It is true that gold often acts as an effective inflation hedge, but it all too often fails in that capacity.

Far too much analysis is put out there linking gold with war, terror, pestilence and other conditions of human suffering. The surest way to spot a gold promoter, if he is not pumping inflation, is his pitch for gold as a disaster hedge. Yes okay, and I have a little Unibomber shack in Montana to sell you too.

Thursday, July 19, 2018

Gold Market Signal vs. Noise / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

In his book Nobody Knows Anything, my friend Bob Moriarty wrote about the difference between signal and noise. Unfortunately, much of the information in the gold space or what passes for such is really noise. Conspiracy theories around manipulation, price suppression and China are all too popular while important factors like real interest rates, investment demand and gold’s relationship to equities are neglected. At present the Gold market has experienced a critical breakdown yet in some circles a new theory and explanation is gaining traction.

Thursday, July 19, 2018

Don’t Get Too Bullish on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Gold has been getting crushed recently, and now sits near several support levels.

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

What Did Crude Oil - Platinum Link Tell Us Last Week? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

The first session of this week was undoubtedly dominated by the sellers. Thanks to their sharp attack, black gold lost over 4%, making oil bears’ short positions even more profitable. Will it still be possible to earn money on crude oil in the coming week?

Let’s examine the charts below to find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Gold And The Elusive Chase For Profits / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Kelsey_Williams

Between the years 1971 and 2011, the price of gold went from $42.00 per ounce to $1900.00 per ounce – a forty-five fold increase. This is depicted on the chart below…

Looking at the chart, it would appear that gold is in a long-term bull market and that continually higher prices over time can be expected. Proponents of this approach to gold cite fundamentals such as a weakening U.S. dollar, social unrest, wars (combat and trade), political instability, etc.

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Crude Oil May Not Find Support Above $60 This Time / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Crude Oil has been a major play for some traders over the past few months.  With price, rotation ranges near $5~$7 and upside pressure driving a price assent from below $45 to nearly $75 peaks.  This upside price move has been tremendous.

Over the past few weeks, many things have changed in the fundamentals of the Oil market.  Supply continues to outpace demand, trade tariffs and slowing global economies are now starting to become real concerns, foreign suppliers have continued to increase production, US Dollar continues to strengthen and social/political unrest is starting to become more evident in many foreign nations.

Monday, July 16, 2018

How Crazy It Is to Short Gold with RSI Close to 30 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Aiming to make money on gold price’s decline is always controversial. The long-term fundamentals remain favorable and gold and silver are likely to exceed their previous highs in the coming years. True, but that doesn’t mean that both metals can’t move even lower in the next several weeks or even months. Different factors govern more short-term-oriented trades as markets are emotional, not logical in the near term.

One of the popular techniques that is used to detect good entry and exit prices for gold is the RSI indicator and the most popular way to use it is to buy when RSI moves to 30 and sell when RSI reaches 70.

Monday, July 16, 2018

Gold Bears Are Roaring Louder / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun.

Saturday, July 14, 2018

Gold Stocks Summer Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have been drifting sideways to lower like usual in their summer doldrums.  They are likely near their major seasonal lows ahead of a strong autumn rally, a great buying opportunity.  Gold rebounding higher will be the primary driver fueling the gold-stock advance, dispelling today’s bearish psychology.  And strong Q2 production growth will likely play a sizable role in restoring favorable sentiment.

Market summers have long been gold’s weakest time of the year seasonally.  Junes and early Julies in particular are simply devoid of the big recurring demand spikes seen during most of the rest of the year.  With traders vacationing to take advantage of warm sunshine and kids being out of school, markets take a back seat.  So there’s no outsized gold buying driven by income-cycle or cultural factors this time of year.

Friday, July 13, 2018

Gold Standard Requirements & Currency Crisis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The United States has three requirements in returning to the Gold Standard. They will be extremely difficult to achieve. They each serve as essential requirements in a criterion. All three are urgently needed. The challenge is formidable for the nation to remain as a leading player in the global economy. The United States stands alone in volume of national debt. Many place the blame on the social net like welfare, Social Security, and other measures. However, the biggest element is clearly the military budget, hardly for defense in the last two decades. As CEO Jack Ma of Alibaba stated so succinctly, the USGovt has spent $25 trillion on the military with nothing to show for it except decayed infra-structure and global animosity for its aggression. A major item in recent years for the deficits has been Medicare, which is full of fraud and waste. Another major item is the raft of pensions like for government service, judicial service, and military service.

Thursday, July 12, 2018

Is the Relative Strength in Gold Miners to Gold Price Significant? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It has been a tough spring and summer for precious metals. Gold failed to breakout when it had the chance and it closed the second quarter in ominous and weak fashion. It was the lowest monthly close in more than a year. Silver has performed better but only because it has not declined to the degree Gold has. The one technical positive for the sector is the positive divergence in the miners. They did not make new lows in the second quarter. That is encouraging but only time will tell us how sustainable and significant that might be.