Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, August 07, 2018

Technical Analyst Sees Silver as 'Oversold' / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund takes a look at the latest movements in the silver market.

The picture for silver looks dull and weak, and it has dropped back over the past month or two, like gold, in response to dollar strength. On its latest 14-month chart we can see how, after breaking support in the $16.15 area, it has dropped back to support close to the low of last July, where it is oversold. The intermediate trend must be classed as neutral/down as it is below bearishly aligned moving averages. Having said all that there is a fair chance of it turning higher soon, as in addition to being oversold and at support, its COTs now look bullish, as we can see on the latest COT chart stacked below the 14-month silver chart for direct comparison, with gold's COTs being more so, and with gold's seasonal factors now approaching their strongest for the year, silver may come along for the ride if gold now advances, which looks likely also because there is a good chance that the dollar will react back over the near-term, as we have observed in the parallel Gold Market update.

Tuesday, August 07, 2018

Gold and Silver Stocks On the Verge of the Next Major Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

On Thursday, the HUI index just broke below the December 2016 lows (in terms of daily closing prices), but it reversed on Friday and closed the week back above this important support. Invalidations are often more important than breakdowns, so did Friday’s action just tell us that we’re going to see a major reversal?

Both: yes and no. Yes, because it was – objectively speaking – a bullish signal. No, because we might have already seen what was likely to take place. There was an intraday rally that ran out of steam and was followed by a move back down before the end of the session. We saw a new sell signal as well. Let’s take a look at the very short-term developments (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Sunday, August 05, 2018

Gold & Silver Precious Metals Monthly Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

With the end of July I thought it was important to take a look at the monthly charts which carry more significance than weekly and daily charts. Visible trends on the monthly charts obviously carry greater weight than those on the weekly and daily charts. Monthly charts can also simplify and clarify sector relationships. While the broader trend for precious metals is lower, there are some slight differences as evidenced by the monthly charts.

Sunday, August 05, 2018

Time to Position for a Decade-Long Bull Market in Natural Resources / Commodities / Resources Investing

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Samuel Pelaez, CIO and Portfolio Manager at Galileo Global Equity Advisors, a Canadian subsidiary of U.S. Global Investors. Sam manages Galileo's Growth and Income fund as well as the Technology and Blockchain fund and also follows the natural resource and gold mining space quite closely. And it's a real pleasure to have him on with us today.

Sam, thanks so much for the time and welcome.

Samuel Pelaez: Thanks, Mike. It's a great pleasure to join you. I think this is the first time.

Friday, August 03, 2018

Gold Stocks’ Autumn Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a psychologically-grating year so far.  They’ve remained trapped in their vexing low-consolidation trading range, disheartening and driving away the great majority of traders.  But that should soon change as this deeply-out-of-favor sector enters its strong season, which begins with a powerful autumn rally starting late summers.  This year’s has exceptional upside potential from such a low base.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Thursday, August 02, 2018

Gold And The USD/CNY (It’s Still About The U.S. Dollar) / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Kelsey_Williams

My last article, Gold And The Elusive Chase For Profits/The Case For Gold Is Not About Price, generated the following comment:

I responded as follows:

Thursday, August 02, 2018

Gold Current Extreme Bearish Sentiment is an Excellent long-term Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Thursday, August 02, 2018

Gold GLD Update… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

Just a quick update on GLD which has broken down from a 2 1/2 year triangle consolidation pattern. If we get a backtest to the bottom rail around the 119 area I will take a position in DGLD which is a 3 X short gold etf.

Wednesday, August 01, 2018

Bullish Sentiment Is In The Toilet For Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun.

While I have gone on record as to why I do not think the GLD ETF is a wise long-term investment hold, I still use it to track the market movements. For those that have not seen my webinar about why I don’t think the GLD is a wise long-term investment, feel free to review this link for my webinar on the matter.

Wednesday, August 01, 2018

Coke, Meth And Booze: The Flip Side Of The Permian Oil Boom / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The fastest-growing oil region in the U.S. is fueling not only the second American shale revolution—it’s fueling a subculture of drug and alcohol abuse among oil field workers.

The Permian shale play in West Texas is once again booming with drilling and is full of oil field workers, some of which are abusing drugs and alcohol to help them get through long shifts, harsh working conditions, and loneliness and isolation.

Wednesday, August 01, 2018

When JP Morgan Decides to Stop Shorting Silver, Prices Will Shock You / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Ed Steer of Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Digest. Ed has covered the precious metals markets for going on two decades now, having written for Casey Research prior to his latest project, and is also a director at GATA, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, where he and his colleagues work to expose the manipulation in the gold and silver markets.

Ed, it's a pleasure to have you back on, and thanks for the time today.

Wednesday, August 01, 2018

Gold Stocks’ Breakdown, Platinum’s Invalidation, Gold’s CoT and Seasonality / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

And so it happened. After a breakdown that might have appeared accidental as it was triggered mostly by one company’s decline, we saw a weekly close below the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the HUI Index. There was no analogous breakdown to new lows in gold and silver, but what happened in these markets on a relative basis was even more significant.

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

What You Need to Learn When Getting Involved in Cryptocurrency / Commodities / BlockChain

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

Sunday, July 29, 2018

The Road to War: Buying Fear - Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Richard_Mills

Gold has been dropping like a stone over the last several months, and getting no relief as the summer doldrums for precious metals meander along. Historically gold’s worst month is March, with January and September the next best months to look for a rally. September is when gold demand spikes in India due to the buying of jewelry for weddings to correspond with the Diwali festival in October-November. April to July is when gold usually drops below its average monthly return.

Sunday, July 29, 2018

Gold Shorts Near Record! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold continues to drift near summer-doldrums lows, feeding and intensifying bearish sentiment.  But an exceedingly-bullish event just happened which will ignite a major new upleg.  Speculators’ gold-futures short positions have soared near all-time record highs!  That means the recent heavy gold selling is exhausted, and massive proportional short-covering buying is imminent.  That will catapult gold much higher.

Short-term gold price action is dominated by speculators’ gold-futures trading.  This is counterintuitive as this group of traders and the capital they control are small compared to investors and their vast funds.  But the futures guys still wield wildly-disproportional outsized influence over gold.  It’s impossible to game short-term gold action if you’re not watching and analyzing speculators’ collective gold-futures trading activity.

Sunday, July 29, 2018

Conflicting Views on Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Recent days were good for oil bulls. Thanks to their action, the price of the commodity came back to around $70 and one of the daily indicators even generated a buy signal. Did the outlook turn to bullish? In our opinion, it didn’t. Furthermore, it seems that a fresh July low is still ahead of us. Why? The answer is quite simple - an analogy to the past.

Saturday, July 28, 2018

Strong US Dollar Could Cap Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The strength of the U.S. dollar poses an obstacle to further gains in oil prices.

President Trump's trade war with China, which is still in its early stages, has already battered the yuan. The dollar has gained more than 8 percent against the Chinese currency since March. As Reuters points out, in dollar terms the price of Brent oil has climbed 9 percent this year, but in yuan terms oil is now nearly 14 percent more expensive.

Friday, July 27, 2018

Gold Stocks Testing Last Ditch Support / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Although precious metals have not rebounded too strongly yet, the long awaited summer rally could be underway (at least in Gold). Gold is oversold and its sentiment is overly bearish. But it is holding important support in the low $1200s. Silver has begun to rally after breaking down from a triangle consolidation. The gold stocks held up well during recent carnage in the metals but are struggling around very important support levels. The nature of their potential rebound is important as they try and maintain current support.

Friday, July 27, 2018

Silver Threads among the Gold: What the Tea Leaves Seem to Be Telling Us / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The ongoing July silver (and gold) slam has a 2008 feel about it. Important data point elements are different, but there's an air of panic on the part of physical precious metals' owners.

"Major trend lines" being broken to the downside; physical metals' buying (in the U.S. off significantly so far on the year; (some) long-term silver holders giving up the ghost and selling their metal below spot.

Friday, July 27, 2018

Supposedly Bullish Gold’s CoT Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

At first sight, yesterday’s session was quite boring – gold ended the session practically unchanged while silver and mining stocks were only a little higher. The USD Index was practically unchanged. But just because nothing happened in the market in terms of the daily closing prices, it doesn’t mean that we don’t have anything interesting to discuss. We do. There is a boomerang topic that just came back once again – the Commitment of Traders report for gold seems to be favoring higher gold prices as the current readings were seen at previous local bottoms. Are we going to see a CoT-driven rally shortly?