Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, February 14, 2015

Gold And Silver – A Telling View Through ETF Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

The changes going on in the world continue to accelerate, but changes that directly relate to gold and silver are hard to find and correlate to developing price activity.  This was addressed in the first two paragraphs of last week’s article, Forget The News, so there is no need to repeat how fundamental news is not driving price.

None of the fundamentals are reliable for market timing, charts being preferred for that aspect, and even the charts are not indicating the “when” will gold and silver embark on a change in trend.  With an overload of news events, a shorter read of what is going on in the markets via the charts makes more sense.

Saturday, February 14, 2015

As Oil Prices Climb, Here’s How to Play the Rebound in Energy / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I write this, crude oil prices continue to advance. Brent is over $61 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is pushing $53.

Both are higher than at any time since before Christmas.

Absent any major geopolitical tension, beyond the levels we’re already seeing, oil prices should begin to level off.

Friday, February 13, 2015

Is Gold Price Pullback Another Buying Opportunity? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Sy_Harding

There are reasons in the technical charts, in the fundamentals, and in investor sentiment, to believe gold is ready for at least a tradable bear market rally.

In a January column, I noted that gold plunged 48% from its record high above $1,900 an ounce in 2011, to its low late last year, and was one of last year’s worst performers, down 15% for the year.

Friday, February 13, 2015

A Few Positive Fundamental Developments for Gold Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

For the most part positive fundamentals (for gold mining companies) refers to rising Gold prices. However, this neglects the things under the surface which can affect margins as much as headline prices and in some cases more.

In the chart below we plot Gold priced in Canadian Dollars, Gold against Oil and Gold against Industrial Metals. Before we get to the chart let me explain why these ratios are important. First, the vast majority of gold mining firms are headquartered in Canada. The loonie is their local currency. The Canadian Gold price for firms that operate mines in Canada or explore in Canada can be more important than the US$ Gold price because their costs are in Canadian Dollars and not US$’s. Thus, a weak loonie rather than a weak US$ is a benefit.

Friday, February 13, 2015

Gold Price and Fed Interest Rate Hikes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s sharp early-year surge has fizzled in recent weeks as investment demand faded.  The primary reason is the universal belief that the Fed’s upcoming rate hikes are very bearish for gold.  Higher rates will make zero-yielding gold relatively less attractive, argues this popular thesis.  But history proves just the opposite.  Gold actually thrives in rising- and higher-rate environments, so rate hikes are nothing to fear.

This notion definitely seems counterintuitive today.  When the Fed finally begins letting interest rates start to normalize after actively suppressing them for years on end, yields on bonds and cash in the form of money-market funds will rise.  That will make these asset classes more appealing to investors.  So they will migrate out of gold, which yields nothing, into the new higher-yielding bonds and money-market funds.

Friday, February 13, 2015

Central Bank Gold Purchases Increase As Sweden Enters Currency Wars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- Official central bank purchases rose 17% in 2014

- Russia and Kazakhstan dominate purchases

- No official figures for China since 2009 – massive volumes pass through Shanghai

- Sweden’s Riksbank announces negative rates and QE

Friday, February 13, 2015

Juxtapose - Debt, Money, Silver and Gold  / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

One of the most compelling ratios describing the true nature of the current economic-financial state of affairs is the current relationship between labor force participation and corporate profits. 

Labor participation is at historic lows at a time when corporate profits and equity markets are at all time highs. 

Friday, February 13, 2015

Gold and Silver Currency Wars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jesse

"As a delaying tactic, U.S. foreign exchange operations were often successful. They raised the potential costs of speculation and provided cover for unwanted, temporary, and ultimately reversible dollar flows. They delayed the drain of the U.S. gold stock. But to the extent that these devises substituted for more fundamental and necessary adjustments and postponed the inevitable collapse of Bretton Woods, they were a failure."

Robert Wenzel, Cleveland Fed Accidentally Links to Paper Highly Critical of US Currency Market Interventions to Support Bretton Woods

Friday, February 13, 2015

Low Crude Oil Prices Are an Act of Economic Warfare / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

This is a wonderful time to have cash and be in the oil business, according to Bob Moriarty of 321energy.com. That's because savvy juniors can go shopping for assets being sold as "uneconomic" when oil is $40–50/barrel. But the low price won't last, he tells The Energy Report, predicting much higher oil within the year. And while that increase will cause oil stocks to rise in tandem, Moriarty reminds investors that it still pays to be selective.

The Energy Report: Bob, in January you published an article saying that the drop in oil prices could be the "straw that pops the $7-trillion derivative bubble." Can you explain the influence of oil prices on derivatives?

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Gold In A Negative Interest Rate World / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: John_Rubino

Global capital is looking for a place to hide. But after decades of enthusiastic currency creation and financial engineering, there’s way too much of it for any one country to accommodate. This mismatch between money knocking at the door and available space is leading the handful of remaining safe havens to put up “no vacancy” signs in order to avoid being swamped. Among the things they’re trying is negative interest rates. That is, if you want to deposit money in a Swiss or Danish bank or lend money to the Japanese or German governments you now have to pay them for the privilege.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Platinum Metal Price Technical Outlook / Commodities / Platinum

By: Austin_Galt

Let's investigate the technicals of platinum using the weekly, monthly and yearly charts.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Financial Repression Investing: Got Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Axel_Merk

Gone are the ZIRP days - the 'Zero Interest Rate Policy' is being replaced by negative interest rates in various countries. ZIRP is a form of financial repression, where savers earn less than the inflation rate to discourage saving. Pundits suggest the U.S. has chosen a different course, as 'liftoff' may soon take U.S. rates higher. We'll try to separate reality from fiction, discussing investment implications for the U.S. dollar and gold.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Gold Stocks Bear Market Phase Isn’t Over Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Bob_Kirtley

Background
This year has started brightly with gold, silver and the miners all posting sharp gains. This sudden move upwards brings with it much jubilation with many believing that the illusive bottom is now in and therefore behind us. One day they will be correct with this synopsis and the precious metals sector will take off generating huge profits for its participants.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Citi Sees $20 Crude Oil Prices - Here’s Why They’re Wrong / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Despite a 20% jump in oil prices, some pundits continue to predict more pain.

In fact, just yesterday, Citigroup analyst Ed Morse came out with his most bearish forecast yet.

According to Morse, oil prices could fall another 60% to $20 a barrel. As for the recent rebound, Morse thinks it looks more like a “head-fake” than a sustainable turning point.

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Tradable Rally in Commodities / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Ed_Carlson

Throughout 2014 my commentaries warned of no bottom in commodities until near year-end. Gold got an early start in November but, looking at the S&P GS commodity index, it appears the remainder of that group found a low in January. However, while this may be a tradable rally, cycles point to the bear market getting started again by later this year.

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Silver and Gold Truth Versus Fiat Lies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

The Jefferson Airplane sang about truth and lies nearly 50 years ago.

“When the truth is found to be lies

And all the joy within you dies…”

Restating their insight to make it relevant to our global delusions about real money – gold and silver – and the much less real money we call dollars, euros, pounds, yen and so forth:

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Oil's Survival Of The Fittest / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

With crude oil prices collapsing and small American oil producers faced with grim choices for survival, the Darwinian nature of commodity market cycles rears its head, dictating that only the fittest will survive -- and only the fittest of the fittest will thrive. As the herd of small companies that formed the backbone of the shale boom is culled, there emerges a new focus on junior players who are sitting on prime prospects where oil can be produced at $20 per barrel or lower and still turn a healthy profit at today's prices hovering around $45 - $52 range. The biggest winners will be those investors who are stepping into the market right now, investing in conventional oil stories.

Monday, February 09, 2015

Crude Oil Price Capitulation Phase / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Bob_Loukas

After a long and relentless decline, the Crude market has finally enabled us to anchor its Cycles. Up until 2 weeks ago, Crude was locked in a clear crash Cycle, which made it impossible to expect anything other than a continuation of the crash. But now that Crude has reversed with a 20% rally, its moves are clearly the start of a new intermediate term Cycle.

Monday, February 09, 2015

Gold Price Consolidation Continues / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

This week precious metals continued to consolidate January's gains in volatile financial markets, with both gold and silver range-bound. Platinum and palladium are up on the week, noticeably stronger than gold and silver. Physical and paper markets appear to have been behaving differently, with prices tending to be firm in London (where physical deliveries take place) and weaker in New York (which is overwhelmingly derivative trading), though at the close of trading in New York prices appeared more often than not to steady ahead of the Asian markets opening.

Sunday, February 08, 2015

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Sector Pitchfork Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Submissions

Bryan Post writes: Gold and Silver had become overbought in recent weeks along with many of the mining stocks. On Friday the sector took a turn lower with Gold and Silver both dropping through major support levels.

Our trading plan doesn’t allow for shorting the precious metals sector so at this point we are waiting for the pullback to complete before taking new positions.

If you are accumulating the sector on weakness these symbols are displaying relative strength: NEM, SLW, CDE, HL and PAAS.