Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Why Crude Oil Prices Must Go Up / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

It may be difficult to look beyond the current pricing environment for oil, but the depletion of low-cost reserves and the increasing inability to find major new discoveries ensures a future of expensive oil.

While analyzing the short-term trajectory of oil prices is certainly important, it obscures the fact that over the long-term, oil exploration companies may struggle to bring new sources of supply online. Ed Crooks over at the FT persuasively summarizes the predicament. Crooks says that 2014 is shaping up to be the worst year in the last six decades in terms of new oil discoveries (based on preliminary data).

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil moved lower after the market's open weakened by concerns over the situation in Ukraine and Greece, the commodity rebounded as weaker U.S. dollar supported the price. As a result, light crude gained 1.08% and climbed above an important resistance, but is it as bullish as it seems at the first sight?

Thursday, February 19, 2015

How Gold Investors Can Take Advantage of a Rising Happiness Index / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: The_Gold_Report

The bottom is in, says Gwen Preston, founder of the Resource Maven, but the next bull market in gold hasn't yet arrived. In this interview with the The Gold Report, she argues that investors should concentrate on finding likely takeover targets and explains that these companies are often distinguished by strong investor and institutional backing. She identifies four such companies, as well as highlighting two exciting explorers and the one gold major best positioned for a robust recovery.

The Gold Report: You have doubled down on your declaration that "Nov. 5 was the bottom for gold and gold equities." What makes you so certain?

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Gold Price $250 Forecast - Dear Harry Dent: Wanna Bet? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jeff_Clark

Some of you may be aware that investment guru Harry Dent has publicly stated that gold will fall to $250-$400. He specifically predicted:

Around $700/ounce is a certainty in gold by 2015 to 2016, and $250 is a possibility well down the line by 2020–2023.

His forecast is largely based on his belief that deflation will prevail.

Governments are fighting deflation. If government stimulus fails, we will have deflation, not inflation.

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Silver and Gold: Why Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Examine the graph of the silver to gold ratio over the past 25 years.

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

HUI Index: Bull Pullback or Bear Rally? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Bryan_Post

Call us Gold Bugs if you wish - it's OK - really.

We have a firm belief that the precious metals, Gold and Silver, are the only real money on planet Earth. We also believe the metals are in a secular bull market that has several more years to run.

Yes, holding these opinions places us in a minority group that is way outside the mainstream of financial "thinking".

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Global Insecurity Is Good for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: The_Gold_Report

International anxiety may be good for gold prices, as gold continues to have a place as a store of value in uncertain times, says Mike Niehuser of Scarsdale Securities. Lower energy prices and a stronger dollar may provide relief for precious metal miners, especially explorers and miners working outside the United States. Management teams that have been forced to adapt to survive should do well in an upturn, and in this interview with The Gold Report, Niehuser discusses a handful of companies that fit the bill, including one in renewable energy.

The Gold Report: Gold and silver have both demonstrated explosive growth in 2015. Why has this happened, and will it continue?

Monday, February 16, 2015

Strong US Dollar Sets Gold and Sliver Markets Tone / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

This week the US dollar moved strongly upwards against the other major currencies, at the same time weakening gold and silver along with most industrial commodities, before some profit-taking set in yesterday. The effect on precious metals is a change from previous weeks when a flight into dollars also supported gold and silver prices. Instead, gold and silver were noticeably weak until this morning, when prices recovered $8 and $0.13c respectively in early London trading. So what’s changed?

Monday, February 16, 2015

What the Bearish Analysts Missed About Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Pundits continue to wrongly predict more pain in oil markets.

Citigroup analyst Ed Morse just came out with his most bearish forecast yet, claiming oil prices could fall to $20 a barrel. As for the recent rebound, Morse thinks it looks more like a "head-fake" than a sustainable turning point.

The market, of course, has ignored these concerns, as crude oil prices continue to climb.

Monday, February 16, 2015

Corn Commodity Chart Analysis / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Austin_Galt

The corn price has been hammered over the past couple of years which has meant the winter hiatus this year in the Corn Belt has been a bit gloomy. But if my read on the technicals is correct then some momentary joy is on the way.

I expect the price of corn to bob up over the coming months but if I were a farmer in Iowa I would be making hay while the sun shines as I expect these coming higher prices to be fleeting before price once again collapses into final lows.

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Gold Price Reaches Potential Support Zone, Ready for a Bounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: MarketsToday

Gold (XAU/USD) declined as much as 6.9% recently, after hitting a swing high of 1,307.6 three weeks ago. That high was right in the area of the 127% AB=CD extension (1,302.8), and the 78.6% retracement (1,299.7) of the downtrend measured from the 1,345.3 peak.

Saturday, February 14, 2015

Gold And Silver – A Telling View Through ETF Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

The changes going on in the world continue to accelerate, but changes that directly relate to gold and silver are hard to find and correlate to developing price activity.  This was addressed in the first two paragraphs of last week’s article, Forget The News, so there is no need to repeat how fundamental news is not driving price.

None of the fundamentals are reliable for market timing, charts being preferred for that aspect, and even the charts are not indicating the “when” will gold and silver embark on a change in trend.  With an overload of news events, a shorter read of what is going on in the markets via the charts makes more sense.

Saturday, February 14, 2015

As Oil Prices Climb, Here’s How to Play the Rebound in Energy / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I write this, crude oil prices continue to advance. Brent is over $61 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is pushing $53.

Both are higher than at any time since before Christmas.

Absent any major geopolitical tension, beyond the levels we’re already seeing, oil prices should begin to level off.

Friday, February 13, 2015

Is Gold Price Pullback Another Buying Opportunity? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Sy_Harding

There are reasons in the technical charts, in the fundamentals, and in investor sentiment, to believe gold is ready for at least a tradable bear market rally.

In a January column, I noted that gold plunged 48% from its record high above $1,900 an ounce in 2011, to its low late last year, and was one of last year’s worst performers, down 15% for the year.

Friday, February 13, 2015

A Few Positive Fundamental Developments for Gold Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

For the most part positive fundamentals (for gold mining companies) refers to rising Gold prices. However, this neglects the things under the surface which can affect margins as much as headline prices and in some cases more.

In the chart below we plot Gold priced in Canadian Dollars, Gold against Oil and Gold against Industrial Metals. Before we get to the chart let me explain why these ratios are important. First, the vast majority of gold mining firms are headquartered in Canada. The loonie is their local currency. The Canadian Gold price for firms that operate mines in Canada or explore in Canada can be more important than the US$ Gold price because their costs are in Canadian Dollars and not US$’s. Thus, a weak loonie rather than a weak US$ is a benefit.

Friday, February 13, 2015

Gold Price and Fed Interest Rate Hikes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s sharp early-year surge has fizzled in recent weeks as investment demand faded.  The primary reason is the universal belief that the Fed’s upcoming rate hikes are very bearish for gold.  Higher rates will make zero-yielding gold relatively less attractive, argues this popular thesis.  But history proves just the opposite.  Gold actually thrives in rising- and higher-rate environments, so rate hikes are nothing to fear.

This notion definitely seems counterintuitive today.  When the Fed finally begins letting interest rates start to normalize after actively suppressing them for years on end, yields on bonds and cash in the form of money-market funds will rise.  That will make these asset classes more appealing to investors.  So they will migrate out of gold, which yields nothing, into the new higher-yielding bonds and money-market funds.

Friday, February 13, 2015

Central Bank Gold Purchases Increase As Sweden Enters Currency Wars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- Official central bank purchases rose 17% in 2014

- Russia and Kazakhstan dominate purchases

- No official figures for China since 2009 – massive volumes pass through Shanghai

- Sweden’s Riksbank announces negative rates and QE

Friday, February 13, 2015

Juxtapose - Debt, Money, Silver and Gold  / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

One of the most compelling ratios describing the true nature of the current economic-financial state of affairs is the current relationship between labor force participation and corporate profits. 

Labor participation is at historic lows at a time when corporate profits and equity markets are at all time highs. 

Friday, February 13, 2015

Gold and Silver Currency Wars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jesse

"As a delaying tactic, U.S. foreign exchange operations were often successful. They raised the potential costs of speculation and provided cover for unwanted, temporary, and ultimately reversible dollar flows. They delayed the drain of the U.S. gold stock. But to the extent that these devises substituted for more fundamental and necessary adjustments and postponed the inevitable collapse of Bretton Woods, they were a failure."

Robert Wenzel, Cleveland Fed Accidentally Links to Paper Highly Critical of US Currency Market Interventions to Support Bretton Woods

Friday, February 13, 2015

Low Crude Oil Prices Are an Act of Economic Warfare / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

This is a wonderful time to have cash and be in the oil business, according to Bob Moriarty of 321energy.com. That's because savvy juniors can go shopping for assets being sold as "uneconomic" when oil is $40–50/barrel. But the low price won't last, he tells The Energy Report, predicting much higher oil within the year. And while that increase will cause oil stocks to rise in tandem, Moriarty reminds investors that it still pays to be selective.

The Energy Report: Bob, in January you published an article saying that the drop in oil prices could be the "straw that pops the $7-trillion derivative bubble." Can you explain the influence of oil prices on derivatives?