Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, June 05, 2020
Gold’s role in the Greater Depression of 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Raymond_Matison
The most important measure for an economy, its recovery or advancement is employment - that is, the availability of good-paying jobs. When citizens have jobs, they earn an income with which they can pay for their needs, and pay taxes to the government for its needs. So jobs and income, are the key determinants of a healthy, modern consumer-driven economy. Over the last several decades business owners, globalists and bankers utilized foreign wage, borrowing cost, environmental and regulatory advantages to close production facilities in the U.S., moving thousands of factories and jobs to Asia. This job migration decision can be reversed at any time; however, it will take as many decades to bring jobs back to the U.S. as it did to move them overseas. Therefore, it will take many years to reverse this unfortunate U.S. worker-discriminating decision. As an unfortunate result, we are now to experience the consequences of a depression (a long lasting recession) instead of a recession.
Some economic observers and pundits have already publically stated that we are now in an economic recession. Official acknowledgment would require the passage, retrospectively, of two quarters of negative GDP growth to confirm this. However, considering all that has transpired since the beginning of this year in our country, admitting that we are now living in a recession is not a particularly bold projection.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 03, 2020
Covid, Debt and Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Richard_Mills
Precious metals are loving the uncertainty the coronavirus has created.
Despite limited successes some countries have had with reopening, the virus is nowhere near contained. As of this writing, close to 6 million worldwide are infected and 365,328 have died. The important columns in the table below from the heavily visited Worldometer's coronavirus page, are the yellow and red.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 03, 2020
Gold-Silver Ratio And Correlation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
From Investopedia:
“Correlation is a statistic that measures the degree to which two variables move in relation to each other. Correlation measures association, but doesn’t show if x causes y or vice versa, or if the association is caused by a third–perhaps unseen–factor.”
In order for correlation to exist, there must be fundamentals that directly connect the two items being compared.
For example, there is a possible correlation between localized, bad weather and crop failures. But how do you predict the timing and extent, or the effects, to a degree that can be profitable?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 02, 2020
Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the stock market has outperformed Gold and Silver significantly. Here is a great chart (from longtermtrends.net) that proves this:
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 30, 2020
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Last week, the FOMC released the minutes from its last meeting. What implications do they carry for the gold market?FOMC Finally Acknowledges the Situation As Serious
Last week, the FOMC has published minutes of its meeting from April 28-29. They show that the Fed reassessed the coronavirus economic implications since the previous meeting at which the central banks did not yet grasp the full gravity of the situation. This time, they acknowledged that “the second quarter would likely see overall economic activity decline at an unprecedented rate.” Indeed, as we reported many times, the GDP will collapse, while the unemployment rate will soar to the levels not seen since the Great Depression.
Thursday, May 28, 2020
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The China virus, the economic lockdowns, and the multi-trillion-dollar rescue efforts of central bankers have dominated markets over the past three months.
However, as lockdowns gradually lift and the 2020 election draws nearer, investors will begin to focus more on political developments.
The once-strong economy that President Donald Trump had hoped would propel him to re-election has collapsed. The President has also taken a tremendous amount of heat from the media over his handling of the COVID-19 crisis, and that has hurt his poll numbers.
Thursday, May 28, 2020
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
When the economic crisis hits, the first instinct is to analyze the previous catastrophes to learn what to expect from and how to handle the current calamity. So, not surprisingly, many analysts have already pointed to the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) as the most relevant example. However, is really the current coronavirus recession similar to the Great Recession? Let’s compare these two big crises and draw investment conclusions for the gold market!
First of all, in terms of scale and pace of the decline, the current crisis is much broader and deeper. It hits practically the whole globe, not only advanced countries, and it affects all offline sectors, not just the financial sector and construction. And in just four weeks, 22 million of Americans made claims for the unemployment benefit. For comparison, during the Great Recession, 37 million unemployment claims were filed. But the Great Recession started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, so it lasted one year and half. When it comes to output, the cumulative decline in the real GDP amounted to 4 percent during the Great Recession. Meanwhile, just two months of mitigation measures are estimated by some economists to shrink the real US GDP by 10 percent. Even the overly optimistic IMF expects that the US economy will shrink 5.9 percent this year.
Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Though gasoline demand remains historically weak, commuters are beginning to head back to their offices, opting for the isolation of their personal vehicles and abandoning public transit, reports McAlinden Research.
Saudi Arabia enhanced their commitment to OPEC+ supply cuts as the Kingdom said they'd shut production of additional 1 million barrels of crude oil per day next month. Most of the OPEC+ countries have already come close to compliance with the deal that took effect this month and cuts from non-member states like Norway, Brazil, Canada, and the US are compounding the already steep curbs on production. Though gasoline demand remains historically weak, commuters are beginning to head back to their offices, opting for the isolation of their personal vehicles and abandoning public transit.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The silver market is on the move. In fact, it’s finally moving out ahead of other precious metals and showing some real leadership.
After the panic selling of March briefly brought spot silver below $12/oz, prices have since surged by 50%. That’s an impressive move to take place within the span of just two months.
The question for investors now is whether the recent rally in silver is fleeting or sustainable – whether it’s evidence of extreme market volatility that suggests more danger ahead or the first leg of a much larger bull market to come.
In our view, there is good reason to believe that the March 2020 lows will never be violated and that silver is therefore in a structural bull market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Before we look at tonights charts I would like to go over some challenges that we’ll face as the current impulse move in the PM complex continues to move higher. It’s not everyday that you will find yourself getting in close to the bottom of a multi month rally. One of the biggest problems I’ve witnessed over the years, especially with PM stock investors, is they grow complacent as the rally phase starts maturing. They believe they are invincible as their profits rise and everything is right with the world. That complacency usually means not getting out close to the end of the impulse move which is extremely hard to do even if you’re looking for a top. They will either sell in panic as the correction takes hold or hang on to their positions during the entire correction which is emotionally hard to do.
I know many here traded in the 2000 to 2011 bull market in the precious metals complex. During that great bull market how many actually made any serious money? By making serious money I mean actually taking it out of the market to payoff debt or take a major vacation or help someone in need or whatever to actually use it. What the markets give us during the impulse rally will usually take it back during the following consolidation phase as investors aren’t aware of what is taking place until it’s too late. It’s just the nature of trading the markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 25, 2020
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
This week, Powell gave a long television interview and a testimony to the Senate. What groundbreaking did he say, and what do his remarks imply for the gold market?
Powell Gives Interview and Testifies
Powell dominated media news this week. On Sunday, the Fed Chair gave an interview to CBS news magazine “60 Minutes,” while on Tuesday, he testified before Congress. What did he say? In an interview, Powell tried to persuade viewers that the Fed has not exhausted its powers to help the economy: “we’re not out of ammunition by a long shot (…) So there’s a lot more we can do to support the economy, and we’re committed to doing everything we can as long as we need to”. But are you really so powerful, if you need convince others that you are powerful?
Saturday, May 23, 2020
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Submissions
The move of a lifetime is just beginning!
The senior mining companies have led this rally for the past year. In the metals sector you get leadership rotation from bullion, silver, senior miners, and junior miners. Silver and the junior miners have yet to break out of their 2016 highs, but it's coming. We believe the junior miners will be next and break through the elusive $52 level.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 22, 2020
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
To be bullish or not to be – that is the question. Or it might have been the question, if someone named Shakespeare wrote a piece titled Investhamlet.
The choice whether to be bullish or bearish or neutral on a given asset should be made each day, each time based on the information that is currently available. Let’s check the new signs that we saw yesterday.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 21, 2020
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This week has been a wild and emotional one and it’s just started!
With Monday’s big pop in the stock indexes, the big rally was based on vaccine news and bullish comments from the fed, convincing most traders and investors to be overly bullish this week.
My volume flow indicator showed a reading of 10 all day yesterday, which means ten shares were being bought on the NYSE at the ask, to everyone share being sold at the bid. Any reading over 3 is considered bearish short term, so ten was extreme. After the pop on Monday, stocks/indices closed lower by 1-2% on the session respectively the following session.
I have reiterated over and over, big moves (and gaps) in the price in the stock indexes that occur from the news are generally given back within a few days. This is still what I feel is going to happen in the coming days, albeit the last hour on Tuesday may have started that retracement.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
In my previous article, I’ve written about how important US dollar movements are for future Silver prices. The chances of a significant Silver rally during US dollar strength is very low; and it is very high during US dollar decline.
The structure of the Silver bull market since 2001 has a lot in common with that of the 70s bull market. However, one of the important differences pertains to US dollar movements.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
WARNING: Shady “Rare” Gold and Silver Coin Dealers Are Circling Like Vultures / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Nervous investors have been pouring into the gold and silver markets over the past two months.
Money Metals Exchange is proud to have helped almost 20,000 new customers with a precious metals purchase in recent weeks, many of whom came over from other dealers struggling with inventory shortages and ridiculous delivery delays.
A new wave of investors is getting the message; the Federal Reserve will never stop printing currency units and punishing savers with lower interest rates, Congress will never put deficits under control, and the government-terminated U.S. economy may not recover for years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To / Commodities / Palladium
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Whenever one hears the words precious metals, gold and silver spring to mind. But this world is much richer, and precious metals don’t end with the yellow or white metal. The less well known cousins, platinum and palladium, can and do send valuable signals too. Before we examine silver, let’s take a look at something interesting in palladium.
The interesting detail is palladium’s weakness. This precious metal was the one that soared most profoundly in the past few years and while it recovered some of its 2020 declines recently, it appears to be back in the bearish mode as its unable to keep gained ground, even despite the move higher in the general stock market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
It’s Make Or Break For the Crude Oil Bulls / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Just like the precious metals market, black gold ended the previous week with a sizable upswing. The rally continued in the early Monday trading, as crude oil moved decisively above its previous April highs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
So here we are, with the sector leading the recovery out of the March crash during still-deflationary times. Inflation? It is not yet anywhere to be found, and that probably has a lot of inflation-centric would-be gold boosters on the sidelines. Someday, when these ladies are in full cheer with inflation signals rising, it will be time for caution.
Meanwhile, for years we have stuck to the real fundamental backdrop that would produce a real bull market in the gold stock sector (ref. the 2001 and Q4 2008 time frames).
Our handy ‘Macrocosm’ generally shows the most important considerations as the larger planets and the least important as the smaller ones. As the gold stock bull market starts to gain attention beyond we gold lunatics and enters the mainstream, I thought I would update each component of the Macrocosm.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Jason_Hamlin
The gold price made a new 2020 high today and looks poised to take out the nominal all-time high around $1,920 and then challenge $2,000 in the months ahead. Some are even estimating that gold could climb to $3,000 by year-end on account of the nearly $10 trillion in new money/debt/stimulus that is being created in the US alone to fight the pandemic.
This 2020 gold price target of $3,000 is a little too aggressive in my view, but I would not be surprised if gold reaches this level at some point over the next few years. Indeed, there seems to be no limit to the amount of new money the FED is willing to create and the government is willing to hand out in order to keep things afloat.
Read full article... Read full article...