Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, June 08, 2020
Silver/Gold Ratio Hits Target; About Those Inflation Indicators / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
The NFTRH plan is and has been that the gold mining sector, due to the fundamentals implied by the handy graphic below, could eventually lead a world full of inflatables higher. The miners, leveraging gold’s out performance to most everything else during liquidity crises and even deflation, move first and draw in the inflationist bugs later. If the macro goes inflationary the miners will likely continue to perform well (ref. the 2003-2008 period) but would no longer be the go-to sector.
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Sunday, June 07, 2020
Gold, Stocks & The Pandemic: A Powerful Contracyclical Play In Action / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Dan_Amerman
While the use of gold to protect against inflation is well known, it has other investment attributes that are potentially even more valuable, and this is particularly true in times of crisis.
In this analysis, we will examine the relative performance of gold and stocks (as represented by the S&P 500) between early February and late May, as the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic shutdowns transformed global economies and markets.
The short term relationship that we will find is an almost perfect match with what fifty years of financial history shows us is perhaps gold's most valuable investment attribute over the long term, which is its contracyclical relationship with stock prices.
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Sunday, June 07, 2020
A Huge Silver Rally Is The Next Step In The US Dollar Long-Term Cycle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
The US Dollar Index is getting close to the breakdown that will signal a massive Silver rally. A type of Silver rally that was last seen in the 70s, when Silver went from around $5 to $50.
The market has virtually completed a full cycle to set up the next Silver rally. See this long-term US Dollar Index chart:
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Sunday, June 07, 2020
Gold & Silver “Washout” – Get Ready For A Big Move Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Gold and Silver moved lower early on June 2nd and 3rd. Our research team believes this is a “Washout Low” price rotation following a technical pattern that will prompt a much higher rally in precious metals. This type of washout price rotation is fairly common before very big moves after Pennant/Flag formations or just after reaching major price trigger levels.
With Gold, a sideways Pennant/Flag formation has been setting up near our GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Resistance Arc. We believe the downward price rotation recently is a perfect setup for skilled technical traders to take advantage of lower entry price levels. The GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc will very likely be breached over the next 5 to 10 trading days and the price of Gold should rally well above $1850 in the process. We believe this Washout Rotation is a process of running through the Long Stops just below recent price activity that will end with a defined upside price rally over the next 2 to 5+ weeks.
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Sunday, June 07, 2020
When People Riot, Should We Call Military or Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Could 2020 end, please? The pandemic is not over and the US suffers now from mass riots across the country. They could aggravate the coronavirus crisis and increase the demand for gold.On May 26, a black man, George Floyd, was killed by the police in Minneapolis, Minnesota. During his arrest – he allegedly used earlier a $20 counterfeit bill in a nearby store – the police officer put a knee on Floyd’s neck on the ground, although the arrestee was not aggressive and repeated several times that he could not breathe.
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Sunday, June 07, 2020
Precious Metals Complex Big Picture / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
From the March 23rd low in the PM complex we’ve enjoyed the first easy part of this rally that should have many years to run yet. Every bull market will consist of an impulse move followed by a consolidation period, rinse and repeat until the bull market ends with some type of reversal pattern. Normally in a secular bull market the turning points will generally be very large to buildup the energy to advance to new highs.
The current 2nd leg up in the secular PM complex bull market actually began in January of 2016 after the first leg up ran from 2000 to 2011. There was a cyclical bear market within the secular bull market that ran from the 2011 high to the January 2016 low. It’s important to understand which part of a bull market one is in as to not get confused on what may lay ahead.
Tonight I would like to show you some long term quarterly line charts that I use when looking for big chart patterns that usually show up at important long term reversal points that can take years to complete. I usually only post these charts just a couple of times a year as change comes very slowly but when change does come it’s important to pay close attention because the change usually represents a major trend change.
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Friday, June 05, 2020
Potential Highs and Lows For Gold In 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
DOWNSIDE POSSIBILITIES FOR GOLD PRICE
There is a correlation of gold’s increasing price relative to the declining value of the US dollar. The chart (source for all charts) below shows this inverse relationship clearly…
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Friday, June 05, 2020
Tying Gold Miners and USD Signals for What Comes Next / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The precious metals sector was likely to decline, and it did exactly that. And based on what we just saw, it’s likely to decline even more.
Once again, the situation yesterday and so far today developed quite in tune with what we wrote yesterday, so today’s analysis will take form of a broad update. Let’s take a look at the GLD ETF. In yesterday’s and Monday’s analyses, we described it in the following way:
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Friday, June 05, 2020
Gold’s role in the Greater Depression of 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Raymond_Matison
The most important measure for an economy, its recovery or advancement is employment - that is, the availability of good-paying jobs. When citizens have jobs, they earn an income with which they can pay for their needs, and pay taxes to the government for its needs. So jobs and income, are the key determinants of a healthy, modern consumer-driven economy. Over the last several decades business owners, globalists and bankers utilized foreign wage, borrowing cost, environmental and regulatory advantages to close production facilities in the U.S., moving thousands of factories and jobs to Asia. This job migration decision can be reversed at any time; however, it will take as many decades to bring jobs back to the U.S. as it did to move them overseas. Therefore, it will take many years to reverse this unfortunate U.S. worker-discriminating decision. As an unfortunate result, we are now to experience the consequences of a depression (a long lasting recession) instead of a recession.
Some economic observers and pundits have already publically stated that we are now in an economic recession. Official acknowledgment would require the passage, retrospectively, of two quarters of negative GDP growth to confirm this. However, considering all that has transpired since the beginning of this year in our country, admitting that we are now living in a recession is not a particularly bold projection.
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Wednesday, June 03, 2020
Covid, Debt and Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Richard_Mills
Precious metals are loving the uncertainty the coronavirus has created.
Despite limited successes some countries have had with reopening, the virus is nowhere near contained. As of this writing, close to 6 million worldwide are infected and 365,328 have died. The important columns in the table below from the heavily visited Worldometer's coronavirus page, are the yellow and red.
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Wednesday, June 03, 2020
Gold-Silver Ratio And Correlation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
From Investopedia:
“Correlation is a statistic that measures the degree to which two variables move in relation to each other. Correlation measures association, but doesn’t show if x causes y or vice versa, or if the association is caused by a third–perhaps unseen–factor.”
In order for correlation to exist, there must be fundamentals that directly connect the two items being compared.
For example, there is a possible correlation between localized, bad weather and crop failures. But how do you predict the timing and extent, or the effects, to a degree that can be profitable?
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Tuesday, June 02, 2020
Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the stock market has outperformed Gold and Silver significantly. Here is a great chart (from longtermtrends.net) that proves this:
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Saturday, May 30, 2020
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Last week, the FOMC released the minutes from its last meeting. What implications do they carry for the gold market?FOMC Finally Acknowledges the Situation As Serious
Last week, the FOMC has published minutes of its meeting from April 28-29. They show that the Fed reassessed the coronavirus economic implications since the previous meeting at which the central banks did not yet grasp the full gravity of the situation. This time, they acknowledged that “the second quarter would likely see overall economic activity decline at an unprecedented rate.” Indeed, as we reported many times, the GDP will collapse, while the unemployment rate will soar to the levels not seen since the Great Depression.
Thursday, May 28, 2020
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The China virus, the economic lockdowns, and the multi-trillion-dollar rescue efforts of central bankers have dominated markets over the past three months.
However, as lockdowns gradually lift and the 2020 election draws nearer, investors will begin to focus more on political developments.
The once-strong economy that President Donald Trump had hoped would propel him to re-election has collapsed. The President has also taken a tremendous amount of heat from the media over his handling of the COVID-19 crisis, and that has hurt his poll numbers.
Thursday, May 28, 2020
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
When the economic crisis hits, the first instinct is to analyze the previous catastrophes to learn what to expect from and how to handle the current calamity. So, not surprisingly, many analysts have already pointed to the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) as the most relevant example. However, is really the current coronavirus recession similar to the Great Recession? Let’s compare these two big crises and draw investment conclusions for the gold market!
First of all, in terms of scale and pace of the decline, the current crisis is much broader and deeper. It hits practically the whole globe, not only advanced countries, and it affects all offline sectors, not just the financial sector and construction. And in just four weeks, 22 million of Americans made claims for the unemployment benefit. For comparison, during the Great Recession, 37 million unemployment claims were filed. But the Great Recession started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, so it lasted one year and half. When it comes to output, the cumulative decline in the real GDP amounted to 4 percent during the Great Recession. Meanwhile, just two months of mitigation measures are estimated by some economists to shrink the real US GDP by 10 percent. Even the overly optimistic IMF expects that the US economy will shrink 5.9 percent this year.
Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Though gasoline demand remains historically weak, commuters are beginning to head back to their offices, opting for the isolation of their personal vehicles and abandoning public transit, reports McAlinden Research.
Saudi Arabia enhanced their commitment to OPEC+ supply cuts as the Kingdom said they'd shut production of additional 1 million barrels of crude oil per day next month. Most of the OPEC+ countries have already come close to compliance with the deal that took effect this month and cuts from non-member states like Norway, Brazil, Canada, and the US are compounding the already steep curbs on production. Though gasoline demand remains historically weak, commuters are beginning to head back to their offices, opting for the isolation of their personal vehicles and abandoning public transit.
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Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The silver market is on the move. In fact, it’s finally moving out ahead of other precious metals and showing some real leadership.
After the panic selling of March briefly brought spot silver below $12/oz, prices have since surged by 50%. That’s an impressive move to take place within the span of just two months.
The question for investors now is whether the recent rally in silver is fleeting or sustainable – whether it’s evidence of extreme market volatility that suggests more danger ahead or the first leg of a much larger bull market to come.
In our view, there is good reason to believe that the March 2020 lows will never be violated and that silver is therefore in a structural bull market.
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Tuesday, May 26, 2020
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Before we look at tonights charts I would like to go over some challenges that we’ll face as the current impulse move in the PM complex continues to move higher. It’s not everyday that you will find yourself getting in close to the bottom of a multi month rally. One of the biggest problems I’ve witnessed over the years, especially with PM stock investors, is they grow complacent as the rally phase starts maturing. They believe they are invincible as their profits rise and everything is right with the world. That complacency usually means not getting out close to the end of the impulse move which is extremely hard to do even if you’re looking for a top. They will either sell in panic as the correction takes hold or hang on to their positions during the entire correction which is emotionally hard to do.
I know many here traded in the 2000 to 2011 bull market in the precious metals complex. During that great bull market how many actually made any serious money? By making serious money I mean actually taking it out of the market to payoff debt or take a major vacation or help someone in need or whatever to actually use it. What the markets give us during the impulse rally will usually take it back during the following consolidation phase as investors aren’t aware of what is taking place until it’s too late. It’s just the nature of trading the markets.
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Monday, May 25, 2020
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
This week, Powell gave a long television interview and a testimony to the Senate. What groundbreaking did he say, and what do his remarks imply for the gold market?
Powell Gives Interview and Testifies
Powell dominated media news this week. On Sunday, the Fed Chair gave an interview to CBS news magazine “60 Minutes,” while on Tuesday, he testified before Congress. What did he say? In an interview, Powell tried to persuade viewers that the Fed has not exhausted its powers to help the economy: “we’re not out of ammunition by a long shot (…) So there’s a lot more we can do to support the economy, and we’re committed to doing everything we can as long as we need to”. But are you really so powerful, if you need convince others that you are powerful?
Saturday, May 23, 2020
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Submissions
The move of a lifetime is just beginning!
The senior mining companies have led this rally for the past year. In the metals sector you get leadership rotation from bullion, silver, senior miners, and junior miners. Silver and the junior miners have yet to break out of their 2016 highs, but it's coming. We believe the junior miners will be next and break through the elusive $52 level.
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