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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

The Quiet Energy Crisis as Mexican Crude Oil production tumbles / Commodities / Investing

By: Money_and_Markets

Do you think gasoline prices are too high? Do you think illegal immigration is a problem? Well, get ready for more of both, because Mexico, the #3 supplier of imported fuel to the U.S., is spiraling into a quiet energy crisis that could interrupt our oil supplies, send shockwaves through our economy, and force a million or more Mexicans to migrate across our border.

Consider this: In December 2005, Mexico sent the U.S. 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). This past December, Mexico only exported 1.2 million bpd to the U.S.

Why is Mexico sending less oil? Because it's producing less oil. Total oil output fell to just below 3 million bpd in December 2006. That's down from nearly 3.4 million barrels at the start of the year, and Mexico's lowest rate of oil output in seven years.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Central Bank Bought 20 tonnes of locally mined gold for its reserves / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

In an almost unnoticed move in the market a dramatic event took place in January of this year. We have long talked of the easy way for a Central Bank to accumulate gold reserves unobtrusively. Usually we have pointed to Russia and China when this is discussed as they are the two nations that have expressed major concerns about the future of the $ and who are producers of gold. Should they decide to acquire gold for their reserves in earnest, the first move they are likely to make is to buy the locally mined gold.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Commodities Market Wrap - Gold, Silver, Oil and Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

The latest buzz is that the commodity bull is over, sighing its last breath of life. Someone forgot to tell China the story, as last week they imported more copper then at any time since June 2005.

Cattle prices in Chicago surged to their highest level since 2003, and hog futures also rose. Sugar also put in a good week's showing.

Most analysts tout the CRB Index as proof positive that the commodity bull is dead and gone. The CRB is a weighted index, with oil and other commodities receiving a heavy overall weighting, which skews the reliability of the index to provide a true picture of the commodity sector in general.

Below is a chart of the CCI Index, which is an equally weighted index of commodities. Each commodity has the same weighting as any other commodity. Thus, a much clearer and truer picture of the commodity sector is revealed.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Uranium Investing - In Situ Recovery Mining: A New Method for Uranium Mining Explained / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: James_Finch

In Situ Recovery (ISR) uranium mining is responsible for nearly all U.S. uranium mining (except for recovery through phosphates). More than 20 percent of global uranium mining now comes from the in situ recovery method, predominantly through In Situ Leach (ISL) mining in Kazakhstan and in Australia. Because of the large number of ISR uranium projects on the horizon within the next ten years, both in the United States, Kazakhstan and Australia, the in situ (ISR) uranium mining method will provide U.S and global utilities with tens of millions of pounds of newly mined uranium by 2020.

In Situ Recovery Uranium Mining: A New Method for Mining Uranium Explained

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, March 05, 2007

Energy Markets Survive Global Financial Markets Sell off / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Elliot_H_Gue


The sudden, sharp drop in global equity markets Tuesday has been the subject of almost endless chatter in the financial media this week. But for the most part, this global selloff failed to touch the energy markets.

As of Thursday's close, crude oil and gasoline prices were actually higher for the week. And energy stocks, as measured by the Philadelphia Oil Services Index, were down only around 1.5 percent, a modest move for that index. Energy-related stocks and commodities were among the few green up-arrows in a sea of red on trading screens Tuesday.

Although four days is far too short a period to use as a basis for making grandiose projections, the contrast with the May/June selloff last year is instructive. Check out the chart below for a closer look.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, March 05, 2007

Silver Forecast - Commercials shorted silver before the Drop! Short-term oversold / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Clive_Maund

The arguments relating to the COT structure and its application as a predictive tool set out in the Gold Market update, apply equally well to Silver, so readers are referred to it for details. In this Silver Market update we will look briefly at specific developments in the silver chart over the past week.

One big difference between silver and gold is that silver failed at resistance at its highs of last year, while gold never managed to get near to its highs. What this means is that silver is, as we have known for some time, outperforming gold, although that may seem rather academic right now.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, March 05, 2007

Silver becoming Oversold as it targets the 200 day Moving Average at $12.40 / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Roland_Watson

If I repeat first of all what I said in last week's update: "Silver could approach the old high of $15 before dropping back to near $14 which will be the last decent buy point before we soar."

That was half right and half wrong. Silver continued on up to a spot intraday high of $14.68 (though the futures got as high as $14.885 on Monday) and then dropped. It did not stop at $14 however. I also suggested:

"I think that silver has only a week or so to test $15 before being pulled back to perhaps its 50 day moving average. When silver moves into a bullish phase, the 50 day moving average takes over from the 200 day moving average as the baseline."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, March 05, 2007

Gold Forecast - The Commercials Got it right! Gold to be weak for some weeks / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

On 21st February an article was posted titled COMMERCIALS ON THE ROPES. This article was based on the erroneous presumption that "this time round it will be different" - that the COT pattern would be broken by a surge in physical demand.

Well, as subsequent events have proved, this time round it wasn't different, it was the same as it has always been. The Commercial shorts rose to a very high level and gold's advance was killed and it went into sharp reverse. This was a serious error of judgment that will not be repeated.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Gold and Silver Analysis - One Step Forward, Two Steps Back / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

It's true that the buying power of gold and silver could increase considerably during a period of acute economic calamity. But, as economists and other analysts have been quick to note over the past few days, the current data simply do not decisively forecast a recession in the U.S. , let alone a catastrophe of apocalyptic proportions. Yes, mortgage defaults are still a legitimate concern, but the numbers simply don't show any significant spillover from the housing or credit bubbles, at least not yet.

The most recent manufacturing data actually indicates a modest recovery in that sector. Even weak capital expenditure in the durable goods data, the seeming straw that broke the camel's back, is a shot across the bow, but hardly a sign of the end times.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 4th March 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Merv_Burak

WOW! but no time to panic -- yet. Not good short term but still okay for the other time periods. Let's get on with the analysis.

GOLD LONG - TERM

Getting right to it, the long term P&F chart has reversed direction but not trend . What this means is that on the chart we are now heading downwards with the O s but have not issued a reversal of basic trend yet. On the long term chart we are still some distance to any kind of trend reversal signal so hang on to your hats, we may be in for more volatility ahead. At the present time the action would have to go as low as $555 before issuing a new bear signal. With some up and down volatility, enough to reverse the direction of the chart again, that could be increased to the $600 level but let's see what transpires. For now, the long term, per the P&F , is still intact.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, March 04, 2007

GOLD Elliott Wave Analysis - Is Gold Really Safe? We Think Not / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Francois_Soto

Gold Truly Didn't Shine this Week
After trying to test without any success the $700 psychological level, the gold commodity plunged by more than $50 to nearly $640 this Friday from its short term top of $690. In the potential bear market that may occur in equities, are gold and gold stocks really safe investments in a mid term perspective? This is the question we will try to answer in this analysis using mainly the Elliott Wave Theory.

The Gold Commodity
The first question before starting the analysis is: When did the bull market in the gold commodity really begin? By looking at gold commodity in $USD, it's not that easy to answer this question because there are two possible periods: either mid 1999 or early 2001.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Major Top in Gold this Year ? - Elliott 5th Wave Peak ? / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Roland_Watson

Gold and silver were caught in the downdraft of selling on the stock exchanges today but having surged from last October's lows, a respite was always looming as the price increased.

However, the subject of this article is not the short-term movement of gold but where the next major sell point will be. There are various commentaries suggesting that gold will move fairly easily into quadruple digits with some breath to spare. I agree with these analysts that gold will move into four figures and then some. The only argument is when?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Gold and Uranium Investments – A European Perspective / Commodities / Investing

By: Dudley_Baker

Last week was a very interesting one here in Ajijic , Mexico , land of tacos, tortillas and tequila. We had representatives of a private European bank here visiting current clients, making a presentation of their organization and recruiting new clients/investors for their bank.

Our village is always on their list of locations to visit because of the large numbers of Americans and Canadians living in this community. Most investors are advised of the need to get some monies outside the U.S. and Canada so this was a great opportunity to see what this European bank had to say.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Weekly Market Wrap - Commodities, Gold, Silver & Stock Markets 27th Feb / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

This week's market wrap will be shorter then usual, as we are on vacation. Next week the full market wrap will return.

The following will focus mainly on the precious metal's markets, which made nine-month highs this past week.

The first chart below is the daily chart of gold. The chart is self-explanatory.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, February 26, 2007

Analysis of Gold and the XAU Index Ratio Charts / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Tim_Wood

It has been a while since I have talked about ratio analysis and because of a few developments of late, I thought that this may be a good time to do so. First, let me begin by explaining to those that may not understand, a ratio chart is calculated by simply dividing one stock or commodity by another.

This in effect then shows us the "Relative Strength" of the two. We can then take this analysis one step further by comparing the ratio chart to the underlying stock or commodity and even applying indicators to the equation. Let's take a look at a few examples.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, February 26, 2007

Silver Forecast - Targeting Break of Key Resistance at $15.20 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

Although silver did not stage such an obviously important breakout as gold last week, it did nevertheless rise in tandem, and succeeded in breaking out above important resistance at its early December highs, putting it in position for "The Big One", which will be the breakout above last year's highs at about $15.20, which is an objective that silver, with its propensity for big moves could easily achieve in a single day from the current position.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, February 26, 2007

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 26th Feb 2007 - Technically P / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Merv_Burak

Tuesday was a bummer. Was someone playing around with the bullion? Wednesday was back on track and everything looks great.

GOLD - LONG TERM
Well, we now have a stronger confirmation on the long term P&F chart that the bull is on once more. The original upside break at $660 still had some resistance from earlier action but that was breached by the move to $690 this past week. Yes, there still is that previous high set last May but that is expected to be breached in not to distant future. When we draw our 45 degree up or down trend lines we can often draw a parallel resistance or support line.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, February 26, 2007

Uranium Boom set to continue for Decades / Commodities / Investing

By: Elliot_H_Gue

Once or twice every century, investment opportunities come along that, if understood and acted upon, create incredible riches.

Maybe this is the year you take that once-in-a-lifetime cruise, or you're paying tuition for a child or grandchild. Perhaps you simply want the peace of mind and security that comes with having bundles of money in the bank. Whatever your personal investment objectives, think "URANIUM".

A fundamental understanding of uranium will likely prove to be the single most profitable way to protect and grow your nest egg in the years ahead. Investors who truly grasp the famous Wall Street adage "don't fight the chart" have an opportunity to get in on the ground floor of what will likely be the most impressive secular bull market of the 21st century.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, February 26, 2007

Gold Bullish Breakout Confirmed / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

Gold has gone and done it - after first breaking out upside from its 3-arc Fan Correction in January, a major positive technical development celebrated in the article Gold powering up for major uptrend - SECTORWIDE BUY ALERT , last week it smashed through the ceiling of resistance at and towards $680, with subsequent solid action confirming that this was a genuine breakout.

In the Gold Market update of 23rd January it was stated "The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $20 - $30 up day for gold." As you all know, that is exactly what we saw last week.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, February 26, 2007

A Perfect Storm in Metals - Gold and Silver Breakouts / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

After long fall and winter seasons of expecting only gradual upward trends in the metals, with suspicion of large, fast moves, the bias of this update shifted two weeks ago as we described all the bullish fundamentals aligning in favor of the metals complex. We warned traders that a breakout had not yet occurred and that, while there was enough demand to prevent an all-out selloff, buyers should look for favorable entry points (we even took the opportunity to do a little shameless self promotion and mention our proprietary trend charts).

Specifically, we said:

"Even with bullish seasonality, money supply inflation, higher demand and geopolitical instability all creating a floor beneath gold and silver, it's still going to take a decisive catalyst to send these metals rocketing back to last May's highs and beyond."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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