Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, September 26, 2014
Valuing Gold and Turkey Farming / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Today's financial markets are built on the sand of unsound currencies. Consequently brokers, banks and investors are wedded to monetary inflation and have lost both the desire and ability to understand gold and properly value it. Furthermore governments and central banks in welfare-driven states see markets themselves as the biggest threat to their successful management of the economy, a threat that needs to be tamed. This is the backdrop to the outlook for the price of gold today and of the forces an investor in gold is pitted against.
Friday, September 26, 2014
Gold $1200 Underpinned by Physical Demand / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
This week saw gold rally $15 to $1233 on Tuesday before sliding to $1207 yesterday morning, then rallying in the afternoon. Silver's moves tracked gold's, bottoming out at $17.30 yesterday at the London opening. This morning precious metals are firmer in pre-LBMA trade, reflecting some short-covering ahead of the weekend.
The action, as has often been the case recently, is in paper markets with hedge funds shorting gold and silver against a strong dollar. This can be readily seen in the following chart of Managed Money shorts on Comex, which is back in record oversold territory. The chart of silver is similar.
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Friday, September 26, 2014
Selling the Family Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Purchasing and securing precious metals is easy. It's like stepping out of the river where you can see the mainstream headed for the big waterfall. Figuring out when to jump back in the river and bring it back into the system is a whole other challenge. Some of the basic rules of investing to live by (that go along with cheap options with low downside and infinite upside), include:
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Friday, September 26, 2014
Gold and Silver Bear Phase III Dead Ahead / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
This is part 1 of an essay by Plunger (Burt Coons). He is an extraordinary market historian and an associate with Rambus Chartology.
The current decline in precious metals will not be complete until it passes through all three phases of a bear market. This is the conclusion I have mapped out in previous essays. The PM bear market began in 2011 and declined steadily until the Goldman raid of April 2013. At that point the bear reached its point of recognition (POR) and underwent double crashes in April and June. After these two crashes the bear has been undergoing a complex consolidation pattern for the past 18 months. It appears that this consolidation is now complete and the bear is setting up for its final phase. This of course is the loathed phase III decline described in a previous post. In the 1930's Robert Rhea described the three psychological phases of bull and bear markets. I have extended his work by using chartology to precisely assign price levels to these three phases. This is ground breaking work as it gives us a critical tool to assess where we are and what may remain in a bull or bear cycle. This tool identifies the critical flaw of the fervent gold bug who for three years has advocated "staying the course" which has resulted in lambs being led to slaughter. The previous essays can be reviewed here: Review Phases of a bear market and Phase III essays.
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Friday, September 26, 2014
Why the Pundits are Wrong About Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Several pundits attributed yesterday’s spike in oil prices to the recognition that the fight against ISIS in Iraq-Syria will be a long one.
As usual, the 30-second TV wonders missed the boat.
Of course, the ongoing chaos in the Middle East is certainly a factor. To the extent that oil traders begin to calculate its impact into their risk models, there will be an effect.
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Thursday, September 25, 2014
Currency Wars Deepen - Russia, Kazakhstan Buy Very Large 30 Tons Of Gold In August / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Russia and ex Soviet States Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic and Azerbaijan continued to accumulate significant gold reserves in August in a trend that we highlighted last month.
See 'How to Buy Gold and When to Sell' Webinar Here
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Thursday, September 25, 2014
Strong U.S. Dollar Pressures Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Aden_Forecast
Gold stayed under pressure this month. And the third quarter is shaping up to be a negative one. So what's going on?
This past month, we've seen the U.S. economy improve, which has kept investors running to the stock market.
It's also fueling beliefs that higher U.S. interest rates are coming sooner than expected. This has been pushing up the U.S. dollar. And with Europe also needing to continue their stimulus and keep interest rates low, it's adding even more fuel to the stronger dollar. That in turn is keeping downward pressure on gold. And it's causing a decline in the demand for gold.
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
All Eyes on Kenya: The Next Big Oil Exporter / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Not even the specter of a spillover of Islamic extremism from Somalia can dampen the atmosphere in Kenya, where commercial oil production is expected to begin in 2016 and discovery after discovery has made this the hottest and fastest-paced hydrocarbon scene on the continent.
When it comes to new oil and gas frontiers, today it’s all about Africa. And more specifically, it’s all about the eastern coast, with Kenya the clear darling--not just because it’s outpacing neighboring Uganda by leaps and bounds, but also because despite some political instability hiccups and the threat of militant al-Shabaab, it’s still one of the safest venues in the region.
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Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Venezuela's Gold Appears To Be Still In Venezuela But For How Long? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
▶ Where is Venezuela's 366 tonnes of gold?
▶ Does Venezuela still control and own unencumbered it’s own gold reserves?
▶ Bank of America economist on visit to Venezuelan central bank last week was allowed to view the bank's gold vault and the gold repatriated by President Hugo Chavez
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Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Gold And Silver Voodoo Analysis Price Forecasts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Austin_Galt
Both gold and silver have had an uncharacteristic and bad month. Gold and silver usually shine in the month of September. Not the case this year. Quite the opposite really!
And I have been no better predicting a rally in both metals. Market 1, myself 0. The markets can be quick to humble and I am certainly not immune. But one key to being successful in this game is being able to drag oneself up from the mat when the chips are down and soldier on. So it is with a clear head and renewed focus that I present where the technicals currently stand as I see them.
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
GOLD Bewitching Hour of a Triple Bottom is Upon Us / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Bob_Kirtley
Background
The last time gold sparkled was in the summer of 2011 when an all-time record of $1900/oz was achieved. Alas since then it has been a torturous journey as gold prices has trekked south arriving at today’s price of $1216/oz, registering a loss of 36%. However, for the year to date gold is still trading above its low of $1180/oz as it grimly hangs on to a modest gain of 3%. The question we face now surrounds gold’s direction; will it test the previous low of $1180/oz and bounce to higher levels or will it penetrate this support level and set the stage for sub $1000/oz gold prices.
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
How Falling Oil Prices Could Trigger an "Unpredictable and Dangerous Mess" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The dive in crude oil prices continued yesterday as yet another selloff targeted the energy sector for a particularly big hit.
Of course, this too shall pass.
The crude oil markets are oversold and a rebalancing will bring prices back up a bit over the near term.
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Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Silver, Gold, Debt and Taxes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: DeviantInvestor
I’m convinced – we can’t escape debt and taxes. Essentially all currency is created as debt, and our financial system creates more debt and more currency into circulation every day. Taxes are insufficient to pay the massive expenditures that our politicians deem essential, so our national, state and local governments fall deeper into debt every year. I think we can all agree – expect more debt and more taxes.
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Has The Gold Price Drop Run Its Course? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldSilverWorlds
The gold price dropped in the last weeks, to close on Monday September 22nd at USD 1212 and EUR 942. Dollar gold is close to retest its bottom for the third time since mid-2013, a price level which was seen only in the summer of 2010. For readers seeking to understand what is going on, we are providing a comprehensive view on the gold market. We take all perspectives into account: price and chart patterns, the technical picture, sentiment, the fuures market, physical demand, gold miners, the influence of the dollar, correlation with commodities, monetary policy and inflation/deflation.
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Can Gold Act as a Safe Haven Again? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: The_Gold_Report
PI Financial mining analyst Christos Doulis says six years ago when the financial crisis was in full swing, safe-haven buying made gold skyrocket. Today, the fear component is down, as is the price of gold. That is why Doulis believes investors need to own bulletproof, low-cost names that can survive this environment. In this interview with The Gold Report, Doulis discusses some M&A possibilities and points to management teams getting the most out of their low-cost precious metals assets.
Monday, September 22, 2014
China Moves To Dominate Gold Market With Physical Exchange / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Shanghai Gold Exchange International Board
China is slowly moving to dominate the global gold market and it is important to join the dots regarding a few key recent developments in China relating to gold.
When the International Board of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) was launched last Thursday September 18 during an evening trading session, it was notable that the first transactions were put through by a diverse group comprising HSBC, MKS (Switzerland), and the Chinese banks, ICBC, Bank of China and Bank of Communications.
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Sunday, September 21, 2014
Long Term Gold Price Chart with Retracements / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
Our friend Lenny sent the patrons of the café a long term gold chart that is quite interesting We have certainly been through the ups and downs of these markets together,
It shows the strong support at 1180, and the longer term trend line that works on a logarithmic chart.
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Saturday, September 20, 2014
Gold And Silver - Current Price Is The Story / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
Forget all the news, all the fundamentals, all the [mostly errant] price projections. There is a reason why a picture is worth more than 1,000 words, and this is one of those times where it is best to focus on pictures of the market, over various time frames, to get a better handle on what to expect moving forward. Put to rest every so-called PMs pundit or blogger that has persistently been calling for higher prices or saying the low is in.
We keep saying that the best and most reliable indicators come from the market. Time to stop listening about what others have been saying about the market and pay closer attention to what the market is saying about others. Several months ago, we expressed the thought that 2014 would likely be more like 2013 and to not expect a dramatic increase in gold and silver prices. Even that was optimistic as silver just reached recent 4 year lows.
Saturday, September 20, 2014
Russian Sanctions 'Putin' Pressure On Uranium Supply / Commodities / Uranium
By: Jeb_Handwerger
Summary
- Spot uranium price rebounding strong over the past few weeks, rallying more than $3 per lb or more than 10% in a short timespan.
- End users such as the nuclear utilities with deep pockets need safe and secure long term supplies from stabile jurisdictions.
- Recent sanctions with Russia could already be putting pressure on uranium supply. Europe and the U.S. relied on cheap uranium from Russia for decades.
- What happens when the cheap uranium runs out? Look for off take agreements, M&A and strategic equity investments in junior uranium miners.
- Sanctions on Russia and Putin could be putting pressure on the supply side of uranium.
Saturday, September 20, 2014
Cheap Gold Stocks Upleg Intact / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold stocks have plunged in September, crushed by the withering selling pressure from heavy futures shorting hammering gold. As usual, these falling prices have kindled extreme bearishness on this left-for-dead sector. But despite this rotten sentiment, gold stocks’ young upleg remains very much intact technically. This impressive resiliency is fueled by these miners’ incredibly-cheap fundamental valuations.
Gold stocks are without a doubt the most despised sector in all the stock markets. Thanks to the Fed’s brazen debt monetizations and manipulations of interest rates, the global markets are distorted beyond belief. Stock markets have soared to extreme valuations on the Fed’s implied backstopping, leading to epic complacency, greed, and hubris. That artificial levitation sucked vast capital out of alternative investments.
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