Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 - Part1 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The gold bull market ended 2019 with a strong gain of 19%. The first half the year was marked with uncertainty as the price after an early year surge to $1350 gave up all of it's gains to drift lower to trade down on the year by early May. However, this was the calm before the bull market storm and that set the stage for a powerful bull run starting early June that saw the Gold price rocket higher to a early September peak of $1566, up over 25% on the year! Igniting Gold bug fever and encouraging prominent gold bugs to get carried away with headlines of Gold heading for $5000 and beyond.

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Gold Trade Usage & Price Effect / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Some basic logic must come to the table in the Gold pricing mechanism. The easiest way to keep the Gold price down is NOT TO USE IT IN TRADE, NOR IN BANKING RESERVES, and to relegate it to the sidelines as the barbaric metal. Some deep amusement comes always in hearing that Gold does not have value, does not earn a yield, and has no uses. Watching the destruction in bond principal value leads the observer to note how Gold holds its value in times of crisis, and even rises against the general paper tide. The bond market crisis is global this time, unlike in 2008. Each debt downgrade to BBB, within the context of fallen angels, brings a realized loss in bond value. All this occurs with a rising Gold price, even with pauses for consolidation. The best way to lift the Gold price is TO USE IT IN TRADE AND IN RESERVES MANAGEMENT. The actual usage further motivates the proper value to be instilled, regardless of type of usage.

Saturday, January 18, 2020

Gold Stocks Wavering / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks are wavering, frustrating traders.  For the better part of a half-year, this sector has neither broken out nor broken down.  Instead it has mostly ground sideways since the last upleg’s peak.  Gold stocks being mired in a consolidation so long, even a relatively-high one, is steadily eroding bullish sentiment.  That ups the odds it will roll over into a correction, especially considering gold’s situation.

Last summer the gold stocks were rocking, with the leading GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF just soaring.  Following gold’s decisive bull-market breakout to its first new highs in several years in late June, GDX blasted 29.0% higher over the next 2.5 months!  That generated great bullishness, capping a larger 76.2% upleg over 11.8 months.  The major gold stocks dominating GDX were becoming belles of the ball.

That fast run left them super-overbought, so a correction was highly probable to rebalance sentiment in this hot sector.  And that indeed looked to be getting underway, with GDX retreating 15.4% over the next 1.3 months into mid-October.  The gold stocks mostly bumped along those correction lows for another 1.3 months into late November.  Then GDX rallied a bit, but kept grinding sideways on balance for most of December.

Friday, January 17, 2020

ERY Energy Bear Continues Basing Setup – Breakout Expected Near January 24th / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After watching Crude Oil fall from the $65 ppb level to the $58 ppb level (-10.7%) over the past few weeks, we still believe the energy sector is setting up for another great trade for skilled investors/traders.

We are all keenly aware that Winter is still here and that heating oil demands may continue to push certain energy prices higher.  Yet Winter is also a time when people don’t travel as much and, overall, energy prices tend to weaken throughout Winter.

Over the past 37 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Crude Oil is as follows: December: Generally lower by -$0.33 to -$0.86.  Averages to the downside: -3.65 to +3.08 January: Generally lower by -$4.57 to -$6.72.  Averages to the downside: -2.68 to +2.27 February: Generally higher by +$8.41 to +13.73.  Averages to the upside +3.07 to -2.54 March: Generally higher by +7.33 to +$15.62.  Averages to the upside by +2.84 to -2.14

Friday, January 17, 2020

Platinum Breaks $1000 On Big Rally - What's Next Forecast / Commodities / Platinum

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Certain precious metals, Gold, Silver, and Platinum, have shown moderate upside price trending over the past 20+ months while Rhodium and Palladium have skyrocketed higher.  These more precious metals, Rhodium and Palladium, have many industrial and consumer uses.  Rhodium is used in electronics and plating and Palladium is used in a variety of consumer products from Automobiles to Medical Devices.

Still, the rally in Rhodium (over 300%) and Palladium (over 70%) over the past 12 months has been more than impressive.  Whey are we not seeing a similar rally in Gold, Silver, and Platinum yet?

Friday, January 17, 2020

Precious Metals Set to Keep Powering Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals got off to an explosive early start to 2020 as tensions between the U.S. and Iran drove safe-haven buying.

Of course, gold and silver markets will need more than a geopolitical flare up to drive a long-term bull market advance.

The question for investors is whether the fundamental picture now looks promising or fleeting.

In our view, the fundamentals are turning in favor of higher gold and silver prices.

Thursday, January 16, 2020

There Is Still Time To Get Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver appears to be very close to an even bigger move higher. Most of the hard work of the double-bottom since 2015 is done.

The coming leg higher is the one that will likely take prices to all-time highs. Below, is a long-term Silver chart:

Thursday, January 16, 2020

Another Repo Market Liquidity Injection for Gold Bulls to Cheer / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last Thursday, the New York Fed added more than $80 billion in fresh temporary liquidity to the financial markets. Move over folks, nothing to see here – but what does it mean for gold prices?

Repo Crisis Is Not Over

Last week on Thursday, the New York Fed added $83.1 billion in temporary liquidity to financial markets. And banks’ demand for liquidity flared up again on Tuesday. If you haven’t heard of it, don’t worry – almost no one did. After all, journalism is about covering important stories… with a pillow!

The Fed not only injected some fresh liquidity, but also noted that it “may keep adding temporary money to markets for longer than policy makers had expected in September,” at least through April. So much for the normalization of monetary policy…

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This, the second part of our Silver research article suggesting Silver may be forming a massive price base in preparation for an explosive upside move, will continue from Part I of this research series.

Our research team believes Silver is setting up in a price pattern that may already be “ripe” for an explosive upside move.  Our researchers have poured over the data and believe the disparity between Gold and Silver is already at excessive levels. 

Historically, anytime the disparity between Gold prices and Silver prices (rationalized into comparative Gold price levels) breaches 30% to 60% and Gold begins an upside price advance, Silver typically begins to move higher with 4 to 8+ months.  This setup pushes the Gold to Silver ratio back below 50 or 60 as Silver rallies substantially higher, and faster than the price of Gold.

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver's progress in comparison to gold's following recent world events.

Silver's recent rally looks diminutive and stunted compared to gold's, but that's normal at this early stage of a new bull market, when silver typically underperforms gold due to investors being risk-averse and silver being perceived as more risky and volatile than gold.

Nevertheless, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart, silver did manage to break out of its reactive downtrend in force from early September. Last week, at the time Iran lobbed missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq, it had a go at breaking above its late September highs. But it was not up to the task and fell back, putting in a reversal candle on big volume, which suggests that it probably has further to fall short term—perhaps back to the upper boundary of the downtrend channel shown. But with the overall tenor of this chart positive, it should then turn higher again.

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund examines the effects of recent geopolitical events on the precious metals markets.

It has been a week of surprises since the last updates were posted. First, I had not expected Iran to retaliate following the murder of its top general by a U.S. drone—but it did, despite the risks, as it was politically necessary to assuage the extreme anger of its population who demanded revenge.

The next surprise was that Israel and the U.S. did not use this retaliation as an excuse to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, which is what they really want to do. As we know, the long-term goal of Israel and the U.S. is to subjugate Iran, and they will not stop until they attain this goal.

And so it goes on. It appears that there was a bit of theater involved in Iran's retaliation, as it clandestinely signaled its intentions which allowed U.S. forces to get out of harm's way. Perhaps U.S. forces did not then launch a blitzkrieg out of consideration for this courtesy.

Regardless of the muddled and unpredictable fundamental situation, which included the accidental downing of a passenger plane by Iranian defensive missile batteries, the charts allowed us to make a reasonably accurate prediction regarding what was likely to happen to the gold price. The call for a near-term top in the precious metals (PM) sector made on the site on Monday looked incorrect the following evening, when gold suddenly surged about $35 on news of the retaliatory Iranian missile strike. But when it later became apparent that there were, strangely, no U.S. troop casualties and no further action against Iran, gold and silver reversed dramatically and dropped quite hard, as the tension then looked set to ease, at least over the short-term.

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Fighting the Fed (and the Crooked Banks) by Holding Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Market forecaster Martin Zweig famously warned investors against underestimating the power of the Federal Reserve Bank to control markets. He coined the phrase “Don’t fight the Fed” back in the 80’s. Precious metals investors are wondering if this is still good advice.

On one hand, it is pretty hard to argue with that bit of wisdom.

The Fed Zweig was referencing had begun taking a more overt role in markets, using interest rates as a tool for managing the economy.

Paul Volcker dramatically raised interest rates to put price inflation from the late 1970’s back under control.

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Gold and Silver Flashing Caution / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Heads UP …from Rambus Chartology.

“You may recall we were looking at the Japanese YEN / PM complex combo chart several months ago comparing the YEN to the PM complex. For whatever reasons how the YEN goes the PM complex tends to follow. It’s not a perfect correlation but close enough to pay attention. Today the YEN gapped below an important trendline that goes all the way back to October of 2018, second chart from the top.

While the YEN has broken below its October trendline the PM complex is showing a possible 3rd reversal point in the August 2019 trading range. When I went to cash last September it was based on the PM complex building out a 4 point consolidation pattern to consolidate the previous impulse move up. At the time I had no idea what the consolidation pattern may look like only that we would need to see at least 4 reversal points at a minimum.

Monday, January 13, 2020

Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Everyone seems to be focused on Gold recently and seems to be ignoring the real upside potential in Silver.  With all the global economic issues, military tensions, geopolitical issues, and other items continually pushed into the news cycles, it is easy to understand why traders and investors may be ignoring Silver.

Silver has really not started to move like the other precious metals.  Gold is up over 45% since 2016.  Palladium is up over 350% since 2016.  Silver is up only 29% since 2016.  The Gold to Silver ratio is currently at 86.7 – very near to the highest level on record going back over 25 years.

Monday, January 13, 2020

Gold Explodes, Then Implodes – Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, because it has happened before.

Gold’s quick roundtrip from $1540 to $1610 and back again ($1539 earlier today) had its roots in actions and words between the United States and Iran. Prognosticators say there is more to come. Maybe; maybe not. But there is historical precedent for gold’s action.

Monday, January 13, 2020

Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig is a well-known name in the metals industry and runs one of the most highly respected websites in our space and provides some of the best analysis you will find anywhere on banking schemes, global macroeconomics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets.

Happy New Year to you, Craig. Thanks for coming on and welcome, how are you?

Craig Hemke: Mike, it's always a pleasure. New Year's started off with a bang, man. I hope it's not indicative of how crazy this entire year is going to be. We'll see.

Saturday, January 11, 2020

Gold Price Reacting to Global Flash Points / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Gold’s safe haven status was tested this week, as Iran countered the assassination of its top military commander with missile strikes against two Iraqi bases housing US troops.

On Tuesday night Tehran fired over a dozen missiles at the Al-Asad airbase and Erbil airport, in obvious retaliation against an American drone strike a few days earlier that killed General Qassem Soleimani.

The country’s foreign minister, Javad Sarif, took to Twitter to announce the attack, writing that “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched. We do not see escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.” 

Saturday, January 11, 2020

Gold Buying Precarious / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold dramatically surged to major new secular highs this past week, fueled by stunning geopolitical news.  The US assassinated Iran’s top general, so Iran fired ballistic missiles at military bases in Iraq used by the US.  That naturally ramped gold bullishness, spawning all kinds of predictions for much-higher prices.  But geopolitically-driven gold spikes never last long, and the gold buying behind this surge is very precarious.

Geopolitics are fascinating, the modern intersection of centuries of history, politics, religion, and military actions.  Growing up, geopolitics were my second passion after the markets.  I read everything I could on that broad topic, both nonfiction and fiction.  Tom Clancy’s masterful novels were my favorites, and I love that whole technothriller genre to this day.  For decades I’ve eagerly followed and devoured geopolitical news.

Friday, January 10, 2020

Gold Above $1,600 As Iran Retaliates / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We didn’t have to wait long for Iran’s response. After the missile attack on U.S. bases in Iraq, gold briefly soared above $1,600. What should we expect next?

Iran Retaliates, Gold Rallies

On Tuesday, I wrote that “given that Soleimani was widely seen as the second most powerful figure in Iran, we should expect a response.” And, indeed, it arrived before too long. On Wednesday, just hours after the funeral of the Iranian general, Iran launched a missile attack on two military bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops.

Friday, January 10, 2020

Gold Gann Angle Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: readtheticker

The new year of 2020 has gold is poised to break out higher. Why is gold going higher? Maybe the FED's economists can explain .... or not.

Maybe these could be on the list:

- FED repo hundreds of billions a day.
- ECB made up tools to keep the European banks solvent.
- A sugar high stock market with Apple Inc and Microsoft looking like Bitcoin 2017.
- The US bond market is NOT confirming a strong stock market.
- Corporate profits have flat lined for 3 years while stocks soared each year.
- Knowing an US election year needs stimulus, and a lower US dollar is a first choice.
- China deal, will have a currency element to make it easier to do business. Lower US dollar.