Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, March 19, 2021
Celebrate the Return of the Gold Bull / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger considers how recent market moves have influenced investment in the precious metals markets. I had not intended to hit the keyboard today, having worked all week to prepare the Special Situations Report on my top-performing Norseman Silver Ltd. (NOC:TSX.V) (whose 65% year-to-date advance and 869% advance since the March 2020 lows has been a pleasant surprise), but Friday's COT (Commitments of Traders) report grabbed me by the throat and slammed me into the chair.
The bullion bank behemoths that manage gold prices in the Crimex futures pits are particularly adept at bullying, and unlike the schoolyard, where bulging biceps and menacing unibrows command fear and obedience, it is the bulging wallets that send the meek scurrying for cover. I have watched the COT over the years, and whereas I used to make all trading decisions from the COT numbers, that has tempered somewhat since the world went into "manic mode" with the arrival of that nasty flu bug a little over a year ago.
Had I let the actions of the bullion banks be the sole determinant of my trading decisions last March, the 375,000-contract net short position would have sent me screaming under the bed. Fortunately for me (and those that follow me), other inputs weighed in heavily and it was the weekend of March 14–15 of last year that I ignored the Commercials and went "all-in." As they say, the rest is history. The biggest rally in the miners in many years ensued and one of the best performance years since 2011 unfolded, and continues here in 2021.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 19, 2021
ECB Accelerates Its Asset Purchases. Gold Needs Fed to Follow Suit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The ECB accelerated its asset purchases, but unless the Fed follows suit, gold may continue its bearish trend.On Thursday (Mar. 11), the European Central Bank decided to accelerate its asset buying under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program :
Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the Governing Council expects purchases under the PEPP over the next quarter to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 18, 2021
The 50th Anniversary of Nixon’s Colossal Gold Standard Error / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Richard_Mills
It seems fitting that the year we are expecting to see an unprecedented rise in US government spending and money-printing to spur an economic recovery, marks the 50th anniversary of the end of the gold standard.
Done at the time to fight an economic crisis, we are still feeling the effects of this disastrous decision, five decades on.
In this article, we explain why President Nixon did what he did, and why every promise that unshackling the US government from the requirement of maintaining the dollar’s value in terms of gold would mean for the United States, has been broken.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 17, 2021
Gold and Stock Bulls Are Getting Ready / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Now that stocks closed at new all time highs, the correction is officially over. And what little rest stock bulls could claim last week, arrived on Friday. Yet, the bull is strong enough to defend the 3,900 zone, and charge higher the same day.
Who could be surprised, given the modern monetary theory ruling the economic landscape? The Fed amply accomodative, one $1.9T stimulus bill just in, and a $2T infrastructure one in the making. That‘s after the prior Trump stimulus, and who would have forgotten how it all started in April 2020? The old congressional saying „a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you‘re talking real money“, needs updating.
Stocks are readying another upswing as the volatility index is approaching 20 again, and the put/call ratio shows complacent readings. The sectoral examination supports higher highs as tech has reversed intraday losses, closing half of the opening bearish gap. Value stocks naturally powered to new highs, with industrials, energy and financial performing best. Real estate keeps showing remarkable momentum, and has been among the best performers off correction‘s lows.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 17, 2021
Copper Shortage Narrative Goes Mainstream / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
Mainstream media and the large mining companies are finally catching on to what we at AOTH have been saying for the past two years: the copper market is heading for a severe supply shortage due to a perfect storm of under-exploration/ lack of discovery of new deposits, clashing with a huge increase in demand due to electrification and decarbonization.
Dramatic price rise
Copper is trading over $4.00 a pound this year on rapidly tightening physical markets, rebounding economic growth especially in China, the top metals consumer, and the expectation that the era of low inflation in key economies may soon be over.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 16, 2021
New York Markets Have Obliterated Silver Prices over Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Many investors sense that the country, and the world, has drifted into uncharted territory.
The last year has been extraordinary. There have been COVID lockdowns, a disputed presidential election, and multi-trillion-dollar federal deficits and bailouts. The Federal Reserve has injected more money into markets than ever before.
This insanity showed up in the physical gold and silver markets.
Bullion dealers have spent much of the past year fighting to get inventory, because investment demand for coins, bars, and rounds has never been higher.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 16, 2021
Is Dollar’s Weakness Giving Way to Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Since its peak in the spring of 2020, the U.S. dollar index has lost almost 12 percent, and it could decline even further, thus supporting gold prices.There is a weakness in the U.S. dollar. Let’s start off by taking a look at the chart below. As you can see, the broad trade-weighted dollar index has been declining recently. Since its peak in late March 2020, the greenback has lost almost 12 percent.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 15, 2021
How the EUR/USD Affects Gold Miners; Which ETF Will Suffer More? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It’s all connected. The Eurozone’s underperformance boosts the USD, thus placing pressure on gold and the ETFs. So, which ETFs will suffer most?
A large part of yesterday’s free version of the analysis focused on the Eurozone’s economic outlook and how it affects the precious metals. We’ll eventually get to Europe again later in today’s analysis, but let’s first examine gold related ETFs, namely the GDX and GDXJ. How low can they go? That will depend on the general moves in the stock market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 15, 2021
Cotton, soybeans, crude oil: Simplicity wins / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
You come to our website looking for market answers.
Well, with the help of our friends at Elliott Wave International, we are happy to offer you a new, free opportunity to see what's likely next for cotton, soybeans and crude oil -- for the entire 2021.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 13, 2021
How to Join the Gold Mining Party… Before it Ends / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Forget gold and silver for a moment. Do you hear the music? Yes, it’s coming from the mining ETFs club. But how long will the party last?
And more importantly, why miners, you may ask? Because miners tend to outperform in the early days of a major rally.
After closing only $0.10 below my initial downside target of $31 on Mar. 1 , the GDX ETF could be ripe for an upward revision. Able to ignore much of last week’s chaos, the GDX ETF’s outperformance of gold and silver signals that the tide has likely turned.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 13, 2021
No More Rocking the Boat in Stocks But Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Submissions
Stocks sharply reversed intraday, and closed just where they opened the prior Friday. That indicates quite some pressures, quite some searching for direction in this correction that isn‘t over just yet. Stocks have had a great run over the past 4 months, getting a bit ahead of themselves in some aspects such as valuations. Then, grappling with the rising long-term rates did strike.
So did inflation fears, especially when looking at commodities. Inflation expectations are rising, but not galloping yet. What to make of the rising rates then? They‘re up for all the good reasons – the economy is growing strongly after the Q4 corona restrictions (I actually expect not the conservative 5% Q1 GDP growth, but over 8% at least) while inflation expectations are lagging behind.
In other words, the reflation (of economic growth) is working and hasn‘t turned into inflation (rising or roughly stable inflation expectations while the economy‘s growth is slowing down). We‘re more than a few quarters from that – I fully expect really biting inflation (supported by overheating in the job market) to be an 2022-3 affair. As regards S&P 500 sectors, would you really expect financials and energy do as greatly as they do if the prospects were darkening?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 12, 2021
Oat Prices AND the Truth Behind the "White Gold" Rush / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: EWI
Oat futures' recent surge to 7-year highs wasn't caused by the oat milk craze; think "market psychology" instead
Generally speaking, the idea of oats is about as exciting as, well, a bowl of steel cut oatmeal.
But this chart of oat futures shows why this ordinarily ordinary grain has stolen the commodity spotlight. For starters, February 2021 saw oat prices soar to their highest level in 7 years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 12, 2021
Magflation: An Unexpected Gold and Silver Driver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
During the 1970's, the U.S. experienced a decade of below-trend economic growth combined with rising interest rates – and eventually – massively higher gold and silver prices.
Some sectors boomed while others lagged, and then as now, the majority of the population struggled with rising home and commodity prices, bookmarked by lofty interest rates.
This stilted and challenging environment, which came to be called stagflation, eventually drove the more perceptive people into gold and silver.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 11, 2021
An Honest Look at Gold’s Chartolgy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Rambus_Chartology
As you well know the PM complex has been trading at a very important inflection point for the last month or so looking for the next important move either up or down. I can make a case today for either direction but the Chartology is strongly suggesting the next important move is going to be to the downside. In the very short term, days to maybe a week or so we could see some backtesting to many important necklines that have already given way.
Lets start with a few important moving averages that in the past gave us our first warning that things could start to get a little rough. These aren’t big deals in and of themselves but they do throw up a little red flag that says, pay attention.
During the bull market years I used a ribbon of 4 different moving averages that when they became all properly aligned to the upside they told us that gold was very strong. The 300 day sma was the most important moving average for the long term health of gold. Throughout the bull market that began in 2000 until the high in 2011 the only time the 300 day sma was violated was during the 2008 crash.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 10, 2021
Bond Yields Roil Markets, Gold/Silver Drop / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As financial markets sold off this week, precious metals got dragged down in the selling. The culprit, once again, was rising bond yields.
On Thursday, the 10-year Treasury climbed above 1.5%. While still low on a historical range, the upside momentum has investors concerned. Over the past seven months, the 10-year yield has tripled from a low of just 52 basis points.
The 10-year note serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates as well as risk premiums in the equity markets. Elevated price-to-earnings ratios in the S&P 500 are more difficult to justify in a higher interest rate environment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 10, 2021
Real US Interest Rates and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Richard_Mills
Several factors influence gold prices (mainly the US dollar, gold ETF inflows/ outflows, inflation rate, bond yields, safe haven demand, physical gold demand, gold supply) but none is more reliable than real interest rates.
The demand for gold moves inversely to interest rates — the higher the rate of interest, the lower the demand for gold, the lower the rate of interest the higher the demand for gold.
The reason for this is simple, when real interest rates (interest rate minus inflation) are low, at, or below zero, cash and bonds fall out of favor because the real return is lower than inflation. If you are earning 1.6% on your money from a government bond, but inflation is running 2.7%, the real rate you are earning is negative 1.1% — an investor is actually losing purchasing power. Gold is the most proven investment to offer a return greater than inflation, by its rising price, or at least not a loss of purchasing power.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 10, 2021
Gold Price Momentum Selloff / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has suffered unrelenting selling in the last couple months, hammering it and its miners’ stocks much lower. Those outsized anomalous losses have left sentiment in tatters, with overpowering bearishness universal. Gold’s thrashing had nothing to do with fundamentals, it was driven by cascading momentum selling in gold futures and gold-ETF shares. But such dumping is finite, increasingly likely to exhaust itself.
Last summer, gold rocketed 40.0% higher out of last March’s COVID-19-lockdown-spawned stock panic. That massive upleg left this metal extraordinarily overbought, guaranteeing a correction to rebalance both sentiment and technicals. That came right on schedule, with gold dropping 13.9% over 3.8 months into the end of November. That healthy selloff was in line with this bull’s precedent, leaving gold sufficiently oversold.
Gold’s three prior corrections during this secular bull had averaged 14.3% losses over 4.1 months. And that was skewed big, with two of those earlier selloffs seriously exacerbated by unique anomalous events. So the odds swung around to favor gold’s next bull upleg getting underway. Indeed it soon started marching higher in a strong uptrend, carrying gold up 9.8% by early January. Then gold went pear-shaped!
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 10, 2021
Gold And US Treasuries – Punctures In The Everything-Bubble / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
Meanwhile, eyes are fixed on interest rates for US Treasury bonds. During the same six-month period (August 2020 – February 2021) during which the price of gold fell by seventeen percent, the price of the 20-year US Treasury bond fell by twenty percent. That IS a huge deal, as it corresponds to sharply higher interest rates from less than 1% last August to as high as 2.26% just the other day.
The rush to proclaim correlation between interest rates and gold has resumed. Also, warnings and predictions of much higher inflation from around the globe are increasing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 09, 2021
3… 2… 1… Let the Gold Corrective Rally Begin / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Folks, it seems that gold has formed an interim bottom, and a short-term corrective upswing is now likely, before the medium-term downtrend resumes.
Any further declines from this point are not likely to be significant for the short-term. The same applies to silver and the miners.
In yesterday’s (Mar. 4) intraday Gold & Silver Trading Alert , I described briefly why I think that the very short-term bottom is already in (or is at hand), and in today’s analysis, I’ll illustrate my points with charts. Let’s start with gold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 08, 2021
Gold Predictive Modeling Suggests A New Rally Targeting $2300+, But When Will it Start? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One of our readers’ favorite tools is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system. This tool maps out technical and price patterns into an array of similar setups using historical data, then applies that data to current and future price bars. Using the ADL predictive Modeling tool, we can see into the future based on historical technical analysis that maps statistically relevant price activity and shows us the highest probability outcomes.
Monthly ADL Gold Predictions
In this research article, we’re going to focus on Gold and how current price action suggests a bottom is likely near the $1720 level. The YELLOW price channels on this Monthly Gold chart highlight exactly where we believe support is located for Gold. If this $1700 price level is breached to the downside, then the previous lows, near $1400, are the next support level for Gold.
Read full article... Read full article...