Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Will Short-Term Link Between Crude Oil and Gold Wane? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Nadia_Simmons

Looking at the charts of crude oil, we clearly see that the major factor, which has driven the price of light crude in the recent weeks was the uncertainty around Syria. At the beginning of the previous week, crude oil began to drop after Russia offered to help put Syria's chemical weapons under international control. Although the U.S. President Barack Obama said that he will still continue efforts to convince politicians to back military action, Russia's proposal raised the chance that a U.S. military strike would be delayed or averted. In the following days, we saw two-day small bounce up in crude oil prices as investors worried about whether diplomatic efforts to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons would avert military action that could disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East. These diplomatic efforts intensified as Russia warned that a U.S. strike could unleash extremist attacks and carry the country's bitter civil war beyond Syria's borders. However, this improvement was only temporary and crude oil slipped on Friday as the United States and Russia worked on a plan for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons.

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Gold And Silver – Fundamental Tale Or Technical Reality? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Michael_Noonan

A few have inquired about our greater focus on the charts as they pertain to the Precious Metals, of late, a shift of which we have been cognizant. The reason is, it suits our purpose. Our purpose is to pursue profitable trading, and telling “stories” is not always apt, especially when almost all of them have been amply related in the news and written endlessly by cheerleading precious metals [PM] writers and newsletters.

Why is an analysis more focused on charts seem like such an obvious question? Last week, we provided a list of nine of the most recognized reasons for viewing gold and silver from a demand side perspective. There are many others you can think of, additionally. [See: It Is Always About One Thing: Timing, click on http://bit.ly/17Hctst} Repeating the same things is unnecessary, and those which have been aired so frequently seem not to have had much influence on sustaining higher prices.

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Gold Damaged, Bulls Back on the Defensive / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Toby_Connor

As I mentioned in my last post there is a disturbing possibility that gold's intermediate cycle has topped, and done so in a left translated manner. For clarification, left translated cycles often lead to lower lows. In this case if gold did top on week 9 and the intermediate cycle is now in decline, then the odds are high we are going to see the June low of $1179 tested and broken before the next intermediate bottom.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

COMEX Deliverable Gold Bullion Plunges By 78% in 2013 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Jesse

The last time that the claims per ounce were nearly this high was in the late 1990's. At that time the central banks had to intervene to keep one or more bullion banks from faltering. It occurred during a period of coordinated bullion selling from the central banks into the market under the Washington Agreement, culminating in the notorious gold dumping known as Brown's Bottom. At least the Germans still have a receipt. That selling failed to hold the line, and shortly thereafter gold began its great bull market run.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Gold and Oil, Where to Go if the Middle East Explodes! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

The Oil Price...if the Middle East Explodes

We preface by saying that this is still a "what if" scenario...

In the unlikely event that a limited strike on the Syrian government's ability to launch nerve gas on its population through air strikes, rocket attacks or artillery shells has no other effect on the religious war, then we doubt that the impact of such a strike will send shock waves throughout the Middle East.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Barrick Gold Miner Gets 10 out of 10 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Richard_Mills

Barrick Gold Corp. wasn’t always a gold miner, it started as a privately held oil and gas company - Barrick Resources. After suffering huge financial losses Peter Munk, the principal shareholder, decided to focus on gold.

The company’s first acquisition, in 1984, was the Renabie mine near Wawa, Ontario and it produced roughly 16,000 ounces of gold that year for Barrick. Then Barrick acquired Camflo Mining in 1984, Camflo had operations in the province of Quebec and in Nevada, U.S.A.

Barrick’s next acquisition was the Mercur mine in Mercur, Utah in June 1985, followed by the Goldstrike mine, in Nevada, in 1986.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Gold In India: Did Gold Stop to Respond to the Rupee Price Moves? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Nadia_Simmons

Today, gold in the global market reversed early gains and fell to its lowest in more than a month as U.S. futures extended losses on fears the United States would curb its stimulus soon and as a U.S. strike on Syria looked less likely.

According to Reuters, purchases from jewelers in Hong Kong and mainland China initially helped gold gain more than 0.5%, but heavy selling of New York COMEX and bullion futures on Tokyo Commodity Exchange pushed the price of gold below $1,330 per ounce.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Gold Beat Stocks Since Lehmans, But Price Sinks as Tapering Beats Debt Ceiling Fears / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

The PRICE of GOLD marked the 5th anniversary of Lehman Brothers' collapse by sliding $25 per ounce Friday morning, finally bouncing from a new 5-week low at $1305.
 
World stock markets held flat, while the price of crude oil rallied from a 3-week low.
 
Silver regained 40c per ounce from a fresh 4-week low at $21.42 – some 10% below where it ended last week.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Five Years After Lehman - Gold Still Safe Haven As Financial System 'Insane' / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,308.25, EUR 984.46 and GBP 827.12 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,340.25, EUR 1,008.54 and GBP 847.46 per ounce.

Gold fell $41.60 or 3.05% yesterday, closing at $1,323/oz. Silver slid $1.31 or 5.66%, closing at $21.83. At 3:01 EDT, Platinum fell $28.60 or 2% to $1,437/oz, while palladium fell $2.03 or .3% to $688.47/oz.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Resources Investing Lessons Learned / Commodities / Resources Investing

By: Marin_Katusa

A natural-resource insider asking who Lukas Lundin is would be like a Brit asking who the current queen of England is. You just know.

Fact is, there is no stronger figure in the resource sector than Lukas, who heads the Lundin Group of Companies founded in 1971 by the late Adolf Lundin, Lukas's father and a veritable legend in the sector.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Silver Demand: When Investment Trumps Industrial / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

A slackening U.S. economy typically means that a slowdown in industrial demand for silver will soon be forthcoming. Nevertheless, the re-monetization of silver would more than take care of any such slump in demand.

Even if new supplies of silver are tapped, there is still a considerable premium associated with finding, buying back, smelting and refining the precious metal. Essentially, the physical market for silver would go completely off exchange.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Gold and Silver Price Manipulation Ends With the Death of Fiat Currency / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The silver and gold market has been rife with speculation about ongoing price manipulation. Most investors are now familiar with this concept, and even the mainstream has admitted that undue market influence has occurred.

Nevertheless, ending this unfortunate fact of life for precious metal investors and allowing prices to rise to their fair value would probably create a U.S. Dollar panic.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Syria Conflict Could Be Good for Energy Investors / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: The_Energy_Report

Conflict in the Middle East has Europe scrambling to find reliable energy sources closer to home. This means investors should consider watching for a big shale discovery in a friendly location. Marin Katusa, energy expert with Casey Research, is constantly looking for the next big thing. In this interview with The Energy Report, Katusa profiles natural gas and uranium companies that could offer stable supply in a time of crisis.

The Energy Report: Energy investing is a truly global venture. What does the possibility of military action in Syria mean for energy investors?

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Crude Oil Prices, Syria, and the Probability of a Price Shock / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: J_W_Jones

Oil prices have been in the spotlight as the Syrian chemical weapons crisis became front and center in the media. As the political process has unfolded, price volatility in oil futures in both directions has been extreme. Oil prices have traded in a wide range the past two weeks between $104 – $112 dollars per barrel.

As a professional option trader, I wanted to look at what the implied volatility within options on oil futures was saying about future oil prices. The oil futures option chain would give me some possible clues about near and intermediate term price direction.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Planned Attack on Gold Begins, Waiting for Manipulation to End / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Toby_Connor

As I was afraid would happen, gold suffered an overnight hit that drove it back below the $1350 support zone. The drop occurred in the span of one minute so it's pretty obvious this was a planned attack with the intent of taking out that support zone in the thin overnight market when there would not be any buyers to defend the against the attack.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Why I Won’t Be Buying Gold Anytime Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: When gold surged to over $1,400 an ounce, I was still not a believer in its potential as a buying opportunity—rather, I thought it was more a trade against the possibility of an expanded conflict arising in Syria.

The gold bugs were suggesting the time for the yellow metal was here again, and I even heard a target price of $1,700 an ounce. Now, with the situation in Syria looking to be resolved, the safe haven’s gains over the past few weeks are beginning to fade away as the price falls below $1,400.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Gold Price Hits 1-Month Low Pre-Fed, Asian Stockpiles Cut Bar Demand Outlook in Half / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

LONDON PRICES for wholesale gold slipped to 1-month lows at $1334 per ounce Thursday lunchtime, extending an early $20 slump in what one dealer called "anaemic trade".

European stock markets reversed morning losses, and crude oil rallied, as the US and Russian foreign ministers met in Switzerland to discuss Syria's chemical weapons.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Crude Oil Price Forecast: The "Syrian Premium" Is Not Temporary / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: By an apparent agreement to place its chemical weapons under international control, Syria seems to have dodged an imminent American military attack.

Yet even as the world takes a step back from the brink, three critical questions still remain:

Thursday, September 12, 2013

India's Anti-Gold Policies: Symptom, Not Cure / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

Miguel Perez-Santalla writes: Controls on gold inflows don't fix the causes of capital outflows...

WHAT'S GOING on in India is nothing new. We've seen it over and over again throughout struggling economies.

These attempts to control movement of currency are very common when a government is faced with problems like India's. They actually create a more crippling environment than the one they are put in place to improve.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Gold and Silver Stocks Ten Week Counter Trend Rally ..Up Close and Personal / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to show you some charts of what this nearly 10 week counter trend rally looks like compared to this downtrend that has been in place since the highs made one year ago. I want to start with a one year two month chart for the HUI that starts with the right shoulder top, for the massive H&S topping pattern, Big S. This chart may look a little busy but if you start at the top left side corner, Big S, you will see the downtrend channel that has been in place for one year now and shows all the consolidation patterns that have formed during this time. Looking at the top left side of the chart the first chart pattern you see is the black bearish falling wedge which at the time I thought would be a bullish falling wedge. Note the two day hard break below the bottom black rail of the bearish falling wedge. That was my cue that the black 5 point falling wedge was a reversal pattern to the downside. The red arrow and the purple vertical dashed line shows you where we took our first position in DUST, which is a 3 X short the precious metals stocks index, on December 3rd, 2012. As you can see we bought the backtest to the underside of the black falling wedge reversal pattern. We slowly kept building our short position as the downtrend unfolded.