Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, October 15, 2022
The Fed’s Challenge and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
As the economic slowdown deepens, the Fed’s challenges grow larger. It increases the risk of policy mistakes that could benefit gold.Inflation Is Still a Challenge
It was a tough year for the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank’s inflation forecasts were embarrassing. In December 2021, it projected the PCEPI inflation rate at 2.6%, while it soared to 6.8% through June. The Fed disclosed $300 billion in unrealized losses on its assets as of the end of March, showing the negative impact of rising interest rates on the market value of the Fed’s balance sheet (that likely only intensified since Q1). There was a trading scandal with two top officials resigning.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2022
How Will the New CPI Data Affect the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Fresh inflation data is to be released tomorrow. While it may trigger daily fluctuations, the precious metals’ medium-term fundamentals remain bearish.
Stuck in Reverse
While risk assets attempted a daily rally on Oct. 11, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey spoiled the party with his hawkish warning to U.K. pension funds. After restarting QE to curb the rapid rise in U.K. interest rates, he said:
“My message to the funds involved and all the firms is you’ve got three days left now. You’ve got to get this done. The essence of financial stability is that [intervention] is temporary. It’s not prolonged.”
Thus, while gold bucked the trend, it was another down day for silver, mining stocks and the S&P 500. Furthermore, with Fed officials undeterred by the financial market volatility, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Oct. 11:
Monday, October 10, 2022
Gold Is Below $1,700 Again. Will It Repeat Its Fall to $1400? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The current situation of gold and its behavior in 2013 share many bearish analogies. Is the yellow metal only halfway through its massive collapse?
A Decade Ago
After we posted last week’s gold price forecast, gold, silver, and mining stocks declined in tune with the analysis. Is the rally over?
Let’s start by taking a closer look at gold.
Saturday, October 08, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Investing At Bear Market Lows / Commodities / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I made lots of small across the board buys earlier in the the week with my main focus on Nvidia, HPQ, Logitec and Arrow, and 1 big buy - Samsung. Current state of my portfolio is 71% invested, 29% cash. Remember as stock prices go up so does the percent invested, similarly when stock prices fall the percent invested naturally drops.
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Saturday, October 08, 2022
Silver – Dead In The Water for 40 Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
SILVER IS DEAD IN THE WATER…
…and cheap; it’s a bargain! Buy it now before it goes to – $500? Seriously? One thing for sure; silver is cheaper now than it was the last time we heard such exuberant (irrational?) calls for action.
In fact, the lower the silver price goes, the more fervent are the claims and projections for ever higher and seemingly ridiculous prices. After more than forty years of calls for $100 silver (see $100 Silver – Nothing Has Changed) now we are being treated to fantasy projections of $500 oz.
Coupled with the price prediction of $500 for silver is a prediction for a crash in the U.S. dollar – by 2023.
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Sunday, October 02, 2022
The Queen Died, but King Dollar Lives On / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Queen Elizabeth II died, but King Dollar is the strongest in decades. Gold doesn’t like it.To say that gold has been struggling this year is an understatement. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal declined from above $2,000 to below $1,700 (as of September 20). That slide occurred during the highest inflation since the great stagflation of the 1970s.
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Sunday, October 02, 2022
Why Gold? Why now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Richard_Mills
Why should investors even consider taking a position in a gold junior, given gold’s lackluster performance so far this year?
Having scaled 2021 peaks of $1,865 an ounce in November, and $1,903 in June, the gold price burst onto 2022 @ $1,800. By Jan. 19 it was at $1,840. Since then, the precious metal has come under intense selling pressure. A combination of rising government bond yields and a soaring US dollar index are the main bearish elements driving gold (and silver) south. Spot gold year to date is down $124, or 8.4%.
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Saturday, October 01, 2022
Gold – A Case Of Unrealistic Expectations / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD – WHAT DID YOU EXPECT?
Question No. 1. What’s wrong with gold?
Question No. 2. Inflation is roaring and gold is dropping in price. Since gold is an inflation hedge, why isn’t its price going up?
If you need to ask either or both of those questions, then you are likely suffering from a case of unrealistic expectations involving gold and its price behavior.
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Monday, September 26, 2022
Gold Waved the White Flag and Began Its Great Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As predicted, the dollar grows stronger while gold goes in the opposite direction. Can we expect a temporary correction next?
It’s happening! The massive upswing in the USD Index and the slide in the precious metals market are here.
Just like you knew in advance. I’m receiving multiple messages where you’re sharing your gratitude with me, and I’m extremely happy that you’re enjoying the results that you were able to get thanks to my help.
All right, what’s next?
First of all, I would like you to keep perspective.
Friday, September 23, 2022
All Gold and Quiet on the Eastern Front / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The war in Ukraine has entered its seventh month and some people believe that China is gearing up for a war with Taiwan. Will bulls invade the gold market?
In August, half a year had passed since the beginning of the war in Eastern Europe. Ukraine defended its independence but lost 13% of its territory. The six months of war between Europe’s two largest nations have brought death and suffering on a mass scale. More than 13 million people have been displaced, and nearly 7 million refugees have dispersed across Europe. Ukraine’s economy collapsed while the prices of food and energy have soared.
What is the situation on the front? Unfortunately, the aggressor’s troops maintain a relatively stable land connection with Crimea and are slowly pushing the Ukrainian army from its positions in Donbas, the main area of combat. It means that taking control of the rest of the Donetsk Oblast by the Russians is probably a matter of time, although it may take several more months. The change in favor of the Ukrainians is possible only if the West significantly increases its military supplies, which would enable an effective Ukrainian counter-offensive. It’s true that the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the direction of Kherson in the south of the country is gaining momentum – in particular thanks to the supplies of HIMARS – but a full scale operation is unlikely due to a lack of manpower and weapons.
Thursday, September 22, 2022
Saudi Arabia Potential DOOMSDAY Oil Market BLACK SWAN! / Commodities / Saudi Arabia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yes here's another potential black swan brewing in the background as the world continues to reel from the impact of high oil prices with the blame firmly being placed at the feet of Czar Putin, so I trundled along to take a look under the hood of the oil market and I noticed something strange that could result in an oil market DOOMSDAY Black Swan event!
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Wednesday, September 21, 2022
Will Gold Survive Another Jumbo Rate Hike? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The key FOMC meeting ends soon. One thing is certain: after this event, the gold market won’t be the same.The Fed’s Projection Will Be Key for Gold
Ladies and gentlemen, please take your seat and fasten your seat belt, as we’re approaching the FOMC meeting and there could be some turbulence! Actually, gold has already entered an area of turbulence and has declined below the psychologically important level of $1,700. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has declined from $1,726 last week to the current level of $1,664, in a response to the strengthened expectations of a more hawkish Fed.
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Monday, September 19, 2022
Gold Bleeding, Seasonal Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has sure been a four-letter word lately, suffering one of its worst bull summers. The primary culprit was heavy gold-futures selling on a parabolic US-dollar surge fueled by extreme Fed hawkishness. But the resulting gold technical damage really disheartened investors, spawning additional relentless selling from them. This investment bleeding has certainly exacerbated gold’s downside, but its days are numbered.
With inflation raging in its biggest super-spike since the 1970s, gold should be soaring today. Instead it has been bludgeoned 14.3% lower between mid-April to late July, defying long precedent. And at the mid-week data cutoff for this essay, gold had again been pummeled right back to those deep summer lows. Technically gold looks pretty broken, which has whipped up bearish sentiment to suffocating extremes.
Gold was trading near $1,977 in mid-April just before the US Dollar Index started rocketing vertically. In the past five months starting then, US headline CPI inflation has run red-hot blasting up 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%, and 8.3% year-over-year! That high-water June print was the worst witnessed since way back in November 1981, a 40.6-year high! It’s hard to imagine a more-irrational backdrop for a major gold selloff.
Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s. In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974. Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher! During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980. Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!
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Friday, September 16, 2022
Inflation Is Hotter Than Expected, Gold Price Colder Than Hoped / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The annual CPI decelerated in August but came in higher than expected. Bets on a more hawkish Fed increased, while in the case of gold, they decreased.Inflation stayed hot in August. Unbelievable! At least for the majority of pundits who expected softer inflation. However, I’m not surprised, as I’ve repeated many times that “inflation is likely to stay elevated for some time.” But let’s stop bragging – and start digging into the recent CPI report.
The CPI increased 0.1% in August after being flat in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It doesn’t seem to be a huge increase, but let’s note that it occurred despite a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. Without plunging gas prices, inflation would be much higher because of the broad-based monthly item increase.
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Thursday, September 15, 2022
Bearish Signals Remain for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
After the bearish progress, oil prices slipped slightly as worries about the global growth outlook overtook fears about the supply shortage.
Macroeconomics
On the macroeconomic view, the greenback found support on its 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) at the beginning of the week before resuming its rally upward and approaching its monthly highs of $110-110.50. Will the quarterly R3 pivot ($115) be reached anytime soon, or will the $110.50 level be left as its two-decade high?
Friday, September 09, 2022
Futures Still Dogging Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold continues to languish near major lows after a rough summer, deeply out of favor with traders. Oddly this leading alternative investment seems oblivious to the first inflation super-spike since the 1970s. That should be driving big gold demand, fueling a major upleg. But that classic inflationary response has been temporarily delayed by heavy-to-extreme gold-futures selling. When that reverses to buying, gold will soar.
As everyone running a household or business knows, inflation is raging out of control. Not even lowballed government statistics can hide it. The monthly US Consumer Price Index has averaged blistering 8.3% year-over-year gains so far in 2022! That’s 4.6x 2019’s +1.8%-YoY monthly average, the last normal year before the pandemic-lockdown stock panic and its extensive aftermath. This June, the CPI soared 9.1% YoY.
That proved its hottest print since way back in November 1981, a staggering 40.6-year high! That’s despite today’s CPI being way watered-down compared to the 1970s one, extensively understating real inflation. Americans sure wish prices were only climbing 9%ish annually, but the grim reality out there is at least double to triple that. With such extreme inflation, gold should be soaring on huge investment demand.
Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s. In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974. Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher! During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980. Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!
If today’s CPI still used its far-more-honest 1970s methodology, headline inflation would be about double reported levels. Gold’s stunning disconnect from today’s raging inflation is troubling, leaving the great majority of traders forgetting about that 1970s precedent. After suffering one of its worst summers in modern bull-market years, gold has largely been left-for-dead. Instead of flocking back, investors are fleeing.
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Friday, September 02, 2022
Gold Falls as Powell Appears Hawkish in Jackson Hole / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium confirmed his hawkish stance, sending gold prices towards $1,700.Markets Were Quick to React to Powell’s Speech
Jackson Hole is behind us! What have we learned from Powell’s remarks at this year’s symposium? Well, the Fed Chair delivered a decisive and firm speech that reinforced the Fed’s hawkish stance and put to rest beliefs about a quick dovish pivot:
Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.
Although Powell didn’t specify how large the next interest rate hike will be, he said that “another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting”. Importantly, Powell downplayed July’s deceleration in inflation, saying that “a single month's improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down”.
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Thursday, September 01, 2022
Nothing Is Stopping the Gold GDXJ From Reaching 2020 Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Both gold and silver’s results sagged, but gold stocks are the worst performers so far. What is this decline leading to?
Gold moved visibly lower yesterday, silver closed at the second-lowest level in over 2 years, and miners (both GDX and GDXJ) formed their lowest daily close in over 2 years! If someone has chosen to take short positions, profits have increased.
Saturday, August 20, 2022
Gold 2022 Doesn’t Have to Be Like 1980 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
A recession is coming – but will it really be positive for gold? After all, the yellow metal plunged in 1980, despite an economic downturn.Recession and Stagflation
Everyone says that the upcoming recession and stagflation will be good for gold. However, will they really? Some doubts also arose in my mind, so let’s investigate them. I, of course, don’t dispute that gold soared in the 1970s. This is a fact which is illustrated nicely by the chart below.
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Thursday, August 11, 2022
Silver Coin Premiums – Another Collapse? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
SILVER COIN PREMIUMS
In 1972, a bag ($1000 face value) of “junk” US silver coins sold for approximately $1300-1350. The average closing price of silver that year was $1.68 oz; hence, the silver content (715 ounces) value was $1200 per bag. The remaining difference was a premium of about ten percent.
A lower silver price would generally result in higher percentage premiums because the face value of $1000 represented a ‘floor’ which limited the risk of holding the coins. In other words, the real investment risk was limited to the amount you paid over the $1000 face value.
For example, if the price of silver were to fall to $1.00 oz., the silver content value of the bag would be $715 ($1.00 oz. x 715 ounces) Since the coins were legal tender and still accepted at their face value, though, the full bag of coins retained its face value of $1000.
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