Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, October 06, 2018

How Commodities Will Perform in the 'Impending Massive Credit Crunch' / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund looks at the factors that he sees are behind a massive credit crunch and discusses how the markets could react. An enormous "sword of Damocles" hangs over all markets now. A massive liquidity drain is underway as global QE reverses into QT and rates rise against the background of immense ubiquitous crippling debt burdens. What this means is that the biggest credit crunch of all time is bearing down on us, which will involve markets crashing in the absence of bids, serious dislocation of capital markets and out of control interest rates.

This is probably the high point for Trump's presidency as the stock market enjoys its final "swansong rally" ahead of the crash, buoyed up the last of the stock buybacks before rising rates choke them off, and the dumbest of the dumb money who think that because the market has been in an uptrend for years it's going to continue.

Saturday, October 06, 2018

Gold Stocks Recovering / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The battered gold miners’ stocks are finally starting to recover after a rough few months.  Their prices slid with gold in July, plummeted in a brutal forced capitulation in August, and then dropped again in an echo capitulation into mid-September.  That left them at fundamentally-absurd price levels wildly disconnected from their actual profitability, leaving this sector with big mean-reversion upside ahead as it bounces back.

The leading gold-stock investment vehicle and increasingly benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  As of this week it still had $8.5b of net assets even at today’s super-depressed gold-stock prices.  That dwarfs everything else in the 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF space, running 40.5x bigger than its next largest competitor!  So GDX is the dominant proxy for the fortunes of the gold miners’ stocks.

Saturday, October 06, 2018

Prepare for a Gold/Silver Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our modeling systems are suggesting that Gold and Silver will begin a new upside rally very quickly. We wrote about how our modeling systems are suggesting this upside move could be a tremendous opportunity for investors over 2 weeks ago. Our initial target is near the $1245 level and our second target is near the $1309 level. Recent lows help to confirm this upside projection as the most recent low prices created a price rotation that supports further upside price action. What is needed right now is a push above $1220 before we begin to see the real acceleration higher.

Saturday, October 06, 2018

More Evidence Of Manipulation In The Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

This past week, we saw that the Bank of Nova Scotia was charged by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission with multiple acts of spoofing in gold and silver futures between June 2013 and June 2016. Traders placed orders to buy or sell precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel the orders before execution, the CFTC said.

So, the tin-foil hat wearers are back out in full force screaming about how this market rigging has caused gold to collapse over the last seven years. Unfortunately, anyone who believes this is simply not dealing with the facts of any of the supposed “manipulation” cases. You see, believing that these manipulation cases caused the gold market to drop from is 2011 high is no different from believing that a paper cut can cause someone to bleed to death.

Friday, October 05, 2018

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

TREND CHANNELS - The oil price for the whole of the 2018 has been trading within the upper band of trend channel that extend towards a high of $80 by the end of 2018, which is the primary reason for my original forecast target.

Thursday, October 04, 2018

Gold Miners Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern? Really? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold rallied, silver rallied, and mining stocks rallied. That’s how one can summarize yesterday’s session. The volume was huge, so it appears that a major upswing has just begun. But is this really the case? As always, just because things look encouraging and the emotions are high, it doesn’t mean that anything changed. One needs to step back from the day-to-day price and volume changes and look at the factors that are in place right now without any biases. No hopes, no “feelings toward the market”, and no worries about missing the boat. Just facts and logic. Let’s start with gold (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Thursday, October 04, 2018

Gold and Silver Bottoming Pattern May Be in Process / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical expert Jack Chan updates the gold and silver charts, including what he believes to be a bottoming pattern.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is now up.

Wednesday, October 03, 2018

Ratcheting Up the Gold Friendly COT Tension / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the most recent gold COT report and movements in the market. Once again the COT report from last Tuesday has revealed continued pressure on the already taut firing pins of the gold and silver markets with more shorts added by the Large Spec algobots and more longs/fewer shorts reported by the Commercials largely represented by the bullion banks. If it is the gold cartel that has capped rallies in the $1,350-1,375 range since August 2016, it is that same gold cartel that are actually positioned for a rally today and where the market is baffling everyone is the failure of the Crimex Criminals to launch the rally. The answer lies in the ascent of the machines in dictating direction in any and all markets. Whereas the algos have been focused on all things non-metal in recent years, they have taken to the gold and silver markets lately and are displaying phenomenal power and control in thwarting the intentions of the bullion bank cartel.

Wednesday, October 03, 2018

Thorium, Uranium’s Ugly Stepsister for Nuclear Reactor Fuel / Commodities / Nuclear Power

By: Richard_Mills

Most junior resource investors know uranium, and many got in on the action when NexGen Energy and Fission Uranium made their discoveries in the Athabasca Basin of Saskatchewan, the region with the highest grades of uranium in the world. Smart, or lucky, shareholders of NXE enjoyed a cumulative share price rise of around 430% between 2014 and 2016, while Fission Energy - famous for its Patterson Lake South property that yielded the open-pittable Triple R deposit - jumped from 91 cents in November 2013 to $1.62 a share in April 2014, for a gain of 78%.

Uranium is the fuel needed to create the nuclear reaction that can either create nuclear power or nuclear weapons. To make nuclear fuel from uranium ore, the uranium is first extracted from the rock, then enriched with the uranium-235 isotope, before being made into pellets that are loaded into assemblies of nuclear fuel rods. In a nuclear reactor, several hundred fuel assemblies containing thousands of small pellets of uranium oxide are in the reactor core. The nuclear chain reaction that creates energy starts when U-235 splits or “fissions”, which produces a lot of heat in a controlled environment.

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

The Silver Exclamation Mark / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Rallying mining stocks? Forget about them. Silver is the new cool kid in the neighborhood. Having rallied by almost 50 cents in just one day, silver stole the spotlight and seems to be ready to move much higher… Or much lower. Does anyone still fall for silver’s fake rallies? Based on the size of the rally and the corresponding volume, it certainly seems to be the case. But you don’t have to fall for it – that is if you prefer to analyze the market’s emotionality instead of acting on it. It’s not an easy thing to do, because each silver rally seems to be “it”. But what’s easy and what’s profitable is rarely the same thing.

Today’s analysis will be quite specific, because we already wrote about “the silver signal” several times in the past several days. We did emphasize our take on the silver market more than once, because the market itself provided us with the signal more than once.

Monday, October 01, 2018

Gold and Silver: Bottoming is a Process / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Last Friday we examined the fact that gold has now fallen 6 months in a row. Historically, this suggests that gold is at a short term bottom.

Monday, October 01, 2018

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2018 Current State / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here is an update to my crude oil price trend forecast for 2018.

Firstly a recap of my forecast for the crude oil price for 2018 which since the start of this year has been for the oil price to target a trend to $80.

Monday, October 01, 2018

Gold: New Bull Or Same Old Bear? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Savage

There are two schools of thought right now, and both sides are firmly convinced they are correct.

The bullish case: Gold started a new cyclical bull market in late 2015.

The bearish case: The bounce out of the 2015 bottom was just a counter trend bear market rally, and at best gold is stuck in a long sideways channel similar to the 1980-2001 period.

While I have to admit there is a lot of compelling evidence to support the bearish scenario I’m not convinced that is correct.

Monday, October 01, 2018

The Cannabis Arbitrage Deal of the Decade / Commodities / Cannabis

By: OilPrice_Com

Sunday, September 30, 2018

Gold And Silver – Still Weak, Qrtly, Mthly, Wkly Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Michael_Noonan

We did an interview with Rory from The Daily Coin, last week, and we mentioned how crypto currencies could be problematic for gold and silver. Their existence could replace the massive fiat debt and preclude any reason for gold and silver to rally.  You can find the interview here.

There has been a lot of discussion of a possible reset whereby gold and silver would eventually replace the failing fiats, and that potential scenario was how $10,000/oz gold and $400/oz silver came about, for the most part.

The pertinent question is, which country would want to have a gold and silver backed currency which would severely restrict the ability to issue increased amounts of the currency?  Also, every other nation would want to buy and take delivery of any and all available gold and silver.  That would not fly, at all.  Recall how Nixon closed the gold window back in the 1970s.

Saturday, September 29, 2018

Gold Investors: It Is Time for a Logic Lesson / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses distortions in the markets. Here is a question for any and all of you that have ever purchased a lottery ticket or played the slots or bet on a horse: If you had proof that the outcomes were all rigged, would you still play? If someone showed you a video of pit bosses stacking decks or tampering with dice, would you ever enter that establishment again? If your wife or mother or employer knew that you would constantly blow your paychecks in a rigged casino, would you ever be able to face them? The answer to all of the above-mentioned scenarios is a resounding "NO!" Yet millions of people (albeit that figure is rapidly shrinking) are still committing many hundreds of millions of dollars every week to the Crimex Casino, which has now proven that every single input into determining prices for gold and silver (Bitcoin, too) is completely controlled by the bullion banks, the Crimex bosses and the regulators.

Friday, September 28, 2018

Gold, Silver HUI Stocks Precious Metals Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

In honor of the men staring at silver’s daily chart, let’s highlight NFTRH 518’s Precious Metals segment this morning. We have 60% of the new trading week in the books and not much has changed for the PMs since this was written. You’ll notice that this man who stares at charts gets a little wordy at the end. There is much context that would-be gold bugs need to have in hand.

First, the intro per our anniversary series of posts…

To celebrate NFTRH’s 10 year anniversary (Friday, Sept. 28) I’d like to present one segment from this week’s report, NFTRH 518 each day until Friday. These excerpts will give you an idea of what it takes to provide a top tier, best of breed product. But there is much more to a single weekly report than will be shown here publicly. Oh and don’t forget the dynamic in-week market updates as events dictate.

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Gold Price Can Still See a Lower Low / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

The Fed controls the gold market. The manipulators control the gold market. The “swaps” control the gold market. The hedge funds control the market. Yes, I have heard about how everyone is controlling the gold market.

In fact, I even hear such ridiculous statements as, "The banks are pushing us down so that they can buy at lower prices." The problem with this is that the banks have been long for weeks - yet they are still pushing us down?

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Gold/Silver Ratio Back at Extremes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The gold/silver ratio, calculated by simply dividing the gold price by the silver price, may be signaling the end of the bear market in metals is drawing near. That could be good news for gold investors and great news for those who hold silver.

First, let's take a look at a long-term chart of the ratio:

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

The Final Silver Sign / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

We’ve seen myriads of signs pointing to lower precious metals prices in the past months, weeks, and days. We even discussed how ridiculously similar the current situation is to what happened in 2013, right before the $200+ decline in gold. But the final bearish confirmation usually comes from the silver market and this time is no different.

Let’s take a look at the charts for details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).