Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Gold Price Can Still See a Lower Low / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

The Fed controls the gold market. The manipulators control the gold market. The “swaps” control the gold market. The hedge funds control the market. Yes, I have heard about how everyone is controlling the gold market.

In fact, I even hear such ridiculous statements as, "The banks are pushing us down so that they can buy at lower prices." The problem with this is that the banks have been long for weeks - yet they are still pushing us down?

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Gold/Silver Ratio Back at Extremes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The gold/silver ratio, calculated by simply dividing the gold price by the silver price, may be signaling the end of the bear market in metals is drawing near. That could be good news for gold investors and great news for those who hold silver.

First, let's take a look at a long-term chart of the ratio:

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

The Final Silver Sign / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

We’ve seen myriads of signs pointing to lower precious metals prices in the past months, weeks, and days. We even discussed how ridiculously similar the current situation is to what happened in 2013, right before the $200+ decline in gold. But the final bearish confirmation usually comes from the silver market and this time is no different.

Let’s take a look at the charts for details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Crude Oil Price $100 Is A Distinct Possibility / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

An oil price spike is starting to look increasingly possible, with a rerun of 2008 not entirely out of the question, according to a new report.

The outages from Iran are worse than most analysts expected, and bottlenecks in the U.S. shale patch could prevent non-OPEC supply from plugging the gap. To top it off, new regulations from the International Maritime Organization set to take effect in 2020 could significantly tighten supplies.

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Gold – “Make Me Feel Good…Tell Me Anything” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Kelsey_Williams

Most technical analysis of gold boils down to “what the charts tell us about gold’s next move”. The next move according to most seers of the trade – is “imminently bullish” and represents one, last chance for investors to save their financial souls.

The problem is that more people have lost more money by ‘investing’ in gold upon the advice of those who proffer it, than will likely ever be made up going forward.”…Kelsey Williams

There are several reasons for that. 

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2018 - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the fifth and final part of my Gold analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

Monday, September 24, 2018

Gold and Miners are About to Explode Upward / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After many weeks of pricing pressure as the US Dollar extended a rally delivering nearly unending devaluation pricing in most commodities, Gold is setting up for a big upside rally and is likely to extend beyond $1240 in this initial run higher. We believe the immediate bottom has formed in Gold and we believe the upside move will consist of two unique legs higher. The first leg is likely to run to near $1240~1250 and end near the middle of November 2018. The second leg of this move will likely run to near $1310 and end near May 2019.

Monday, September 24, 2018

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the fifth and final part of my Gold analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

1. Gold Price Trend 2018 Recap
2. Trend Analysis
3. Seasonal Analysis
4. US Dollar
5. Forecast Conclusion

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Gold / US Dollar Inverse Trend Relationship Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my fourth video in a series of 5 to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

1. Gold Price Trend 2018 Recap
2. Trend Analysis
3. Seasonal Analysis
4. US Dollar
5. Forecast Conclusion

Saturday, September 22, 2018

Trade War vs. Commodities / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: The_Gold_Report

Lobo Tiggre of the Independent Speculator discusses the trade war and its impact on commodities, and what that all means for resource investors. There is a widespread notion among investors, analysts and pundits that the escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and its trading partners is bad for the global economy. This is no stretch. The leap from there to it being bad for commodities is understandable, but less certain. Still, people who should know, like those running the world's largest mining company, are saying it's so.

Is it any wonder, then, that we've seen the rally in commodities that started in 2016 start to peter out?

Saturday, September 22, 2018

Gold Exodus to Reverse / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Investors have pulled much capital out of gold in recent months in a major mass exodus.  Their sentiment waxed very bearish as gold was pounded lower by extreme record gold-futures short selling.  The latest record stock-market highs also suppressed the perceived need for diversifying portfolios with gold.  But this heavy investment gold selling is slowing, and should reverse sharply once stock markets roll over again.

Not too long ago in mid-June, gold was trading at $1302.  It looked fairly strong for the summer doldrums, its weakest time of the year seasonally.  But selling would soon return with a vengeance, pummeling gold 9.9% lower over the next 2.1 months into mid-August.  That major slide leading into a late-summer low of $1174 certainly cast a dark pall over psychology, fueling surging bearishness that remains ubiquitous today.

Friday, September 21, 2018

Why the Next Market Crash Will Not Take Gold Down / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, founders of Seabridge Gold, discuss what they believe will happen to gold if there is another financial crisis. The global financial crisis of 2008 was essentially caused by excessive leverage, a loss of confidence in real estate credit and a resulting sudden collapse of liquidity in the financial system. The central bank response was to lower interest rates and flood markets with liquidity. Since then, debt loads have increased more than 30% and the percentage of higher risk credit has also grown sharply. Many analysts believe that another crisis is possible due to a combination of enormous leverage and deteriorating credit standards. What will happen to gold if we have another financial crisis?

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Are Gold And Silver Going To Follow A Rebound In Asian Stocks? - Audio / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Are Gold And Silver Going To Follow A Rebound In Asian Stocks?

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Golden Sunsets in the Land of U.S. Dollar Hegemony / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Michael Ballanger discusses the current state of precious metal markets. I shall pass along my thoughts on the tenth anniversary of the 2008 bank bailouts, currency chaos and the un-precious metals in no particular order and with no specific agenda. More important, I want to pay tribute to a writer whose work I truly love, Rolling Stone magazine's Matt Taibbi. Taibbi's work reminds me of an era-gone-by when reporters actually reported and where "fake news" was at the least an excuse for the originator to be blackballed from the journalistic fraternity and at the worst a jail sentence. The senior editors in the newspaper business demanded that their reporters verified facts by way of constant scrutinization of sources while chasing down leads for days on end in order to allow something controversial to hit the media screens. Matt covered the "Great Financial Crisis" ten years ago and immediately after that, he was the chap that nicknamed Goldman Sacks "a great vampire squid" whose claim to fame and prosperity was how it was "wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money."

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my third video in a series of 5 that conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

1. Gold Price Trend 2018 Recap
2. Trend Analysis
3. Seasonal Analysis
4. US Dollar
5. Forecast Conclusion

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Gold Stocks Remain in Downtrend but Uranium Stocks on the Cusp of New Bull Market / Commodities / Uranium

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold stocks failed to breakout in the spring and then brokedown to multi-year lows by September. As autumn beckons, the precious metals sector at large is very oversold and could be starting a rebound. However, the fundamentals are not yet in place for a new bull market. They will be when the Fed moves to the end of this rate hike cycle. Although gold stocks and most commodity stocks are mired in downtrends, that isn’t the case for uranium stocks which appear to be on the cusp of a new bull market.

According to Trade Tech, the spot price of uranium is $27.70/lb which is a two and a half year high. The price has begun to rise after basing for several years.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

We have some good news and some bad news for both: precious metals bulls and bears. Based on new developments it’s even more likely that we are just before the huge price decline in gold, silver, and mining stocks, but at the same time it also appears likely that the final bottom will take place later than we had expected, based on the previously available information.

Let’s start with additional bearish confirmations (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). In our Monday’s analysis, we compared the price performance of gold that we saw in the recent months to what happened in 2013, right before the big $200+ plunge that took place in only 2 trading days. In today’s analysis, we will extend this analogy also to other markets. But first, let’s recall the Monday’s analysis.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Silver Looks Poised To Move Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

A key difference between silver and gold prices is the fact that silver already bottomed in 1993, whereas gold bottomed only in 1999.

This means that from 1993 to 1999 silver was actually in an uptrend, while gold was still caught in a downtrend. This little known fact might not have been so important to date; however, it might become more important as this bull market progresses.

I have put together a silver chart that touches on this issue, since it would not be possible to do this for gold, because gold has technically had only one phase, whereas silver has had two:

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Gold’s Ultimate Confirmation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Although it didn’t appear to be a breakdown, silver just closed the day (and week) at a new yearly low. Remember the day when silver moved briefly below $14? Ultimately, silver futures closed at $14.15 on that day, and they just closed at $14.14 on Friday. So little, yet so much. Breakdown confirmed by weekly closes is something very significant and yet, it’s not the most important thing that we will comment on in today’s analysis. The key details will come from the gold market. Let’s move right to it (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Omanization: a 20-year Process to Fight Volatile Oil Prices  / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ben_Jardine

The stark realisation that the oil industry, with its volatile fluctuations, is an unreliable source of income for the Sultanate of Oman, has encouraged its leaders in 1988 to introduce what is commonly referred to as the ‘Omanization’ of its economy. In short, this means that through its National Program for Enhancing Economic Diversification (Tanfeeth), the Omani government has decided to develop the following sectors: manufacturing, transport, logistics, and tourism. This they hope, will transform its economy from one that is less reliant on its oil reserves and expat workers, to one that is self-sufficient at its core.