Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, October 28, 2018

Gold Stocks Will Benefit From Cyclical Change / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

As we have noted over the many years of the gold sector’s bear market, the gold miners will not rally for real until the real sector and macro fundamentals come into place. Those fundamentals do not include commonly promoted inflation, China/India “love” trades, a US dollar collapse or especially, war, pestilence or any other human misery than economic. The more astute gold bugs do not fall for that.

The gold miners are counter-cyclical as they leverage gold’s performance (whether positive or negative) relative to cyclical assets and markets. Hence the handy picture showing the key fundamental items with the 4 largest planets orbiting the golden sun being the most important.

Saturday, October 27, 2018

Gold Upleg Fuel Abounds / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold and its miners’ stocks have proven rare bastions of strength during recent weeks’ market carnage.  They are powering considerably higher while nearly everything else burns.  The markets’ major sentiment shift is accelerating a young gold upleg, which ought to grow much larger as speculators and investors continue returning.  Their collective gold positioning remains very low, making for abundant gold upleg fuel.

October’s outperformance by gold and gold stocks has been impressive.  As of Wednesday, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index had plunged 8.8% month-to-date.  That heavy selling was led by the market-darling mega tech stocks, pummeling the NASDAQ down 11.7% MTD!  Stock investors are starting to pay the piper for getting far too complacent in bubble-valued markets, the reckoning is underway.

Friday, October 26, 2018

Stronger Dollar is Bullish Catalyst for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The US$ index is breaking higher. Its trading at 96.41 as we pen this.

A daily close above 96.61 marks a new 52-week high and puts the dollar in position to eventually retest its bull market high at 104.

If this strength continues then the relief rally in precious metals could be over.

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Rome vs Brussels. Will That Battle Benefit Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Only one digit has changed. But it may have profound consequences, sending the country closer to junk status. Meanwhile, Rome and Brussels clash over budget plan. Will that duel benefit or harm the yellow metal?

Only One Notch Above Being Junk

Italian drama continues. On Friday, Moody’s, one of the most significant rating agencies in the world, downgraded the Italian credit rating from Baa2 to Baa3. It means that Italy’s local and foreign-currency bonds are now only one notch above junk territory. The move was not surprising, as well as the reasons behind this decision:

Thursday, October 25, 2018

U.S. Shale Oil Has A Glaring Problem / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices are down a bit, but are still close to multi-year highs. That should leave the shale industry flush with cash. However, a long list of U.S. shale companies are still struggling to turn a profit.

A new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and the Sightline Institute detail the "alarming volumes of red ink" within the shale industry.

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Sentiment Is The Most Important Factor To Focus On in Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

I have now been a contributor at Seeking Alpha for seven years, during which time I have written for approximately six years, as I took a one-year hiatus. And, during that time, I have had the honor of penning almost 400 articles.

During the six years I have been actively writing on Seeking Alpha, 30,000 of you have trusted me enough to begin following my work, as I just hit the 30,000-follower mark. For that I am very grateful, honored and humbled. So, I wanted to first thank you all.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Gold Stocks Sentiment Shifting / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have been largely ignored and neglected for years.  Speculators and investors wanted little to do with them for various reasons.  But that apathetic sentiment is finally starting to shift thanks to last week’s stock-market plunge.  Capital is starting to return to this battered sector as traders begin to realize how radically undervalued it is.  Sentiment mean reversions can catapult gold stocks far higher.

Sentiment is defined as “a thought, view, or attitude, especially one based mainly on emotion instead of reason”.  We humans are inherently-emotional creatures riddled with sentiment on almost everything.  That’s especially true in our perceptions of the financial markets, which heavily influence if not dominate our trading decisions.  We buy and sell stocks when it feels good, when markets appear to validate our outlooks.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

The Incredibly Bullish Set-Up for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the bullish set-up for gold and why he believes this time is different. For the first time in months, Fido the Wonder Dog has been in my office and at the foot of my bed 24/7 for the past few days giving me great solace that the current advance in precious metals prices is here to stay. Gone are his nervous tics every time my chair squeaks or when I give a little "Whoop-whoop!" at the sight of decent gold quote and most certainly absent are all of the caked mudballs in his fur from having to sleep (hide) under the tool shed.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Checking Gold Stocks Valuations / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It’s no secret that gold mining stocks are historically cheap and have been for several years.

Traditional metrics like price to cash flow and price to book value showed that gold stocks in late 2015 were at arguably their cheapest points since the start of the bull market in the 1960s.

Other metrics showed gold stocks to be the cheapest since the Roosevelt administration.

It has been almost a year since we examined some of these charts and with the sector moving closer to another epic low, we wanted an update.

Friday, October 19, 2018

Gold Would Not Enjoy That FOMC Is Going More Restrictive / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

“Policy would need to become modestly restrictive for a time.” This is the key quote from the recent FOMC minutes. This is not a reason for gold’s joy.

Fed Is Becoming More Hawkish

Yesterday, the Fed released minutes from the recent FOMC meeting. As everyone knows, the Committee hiked interest rates by another 25 basis points in September. But what about the future stance? Well, the minutes signal that the FOMC is going to be more hawkish in the near future (as we have been warning for some time). The key paragraph is as follows:

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Determining the Outlook for Gold Mining Stock / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold miners completed the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern – it’s now a fact. And many analysts would have one believe that it’s the only fact that matters right now or that it’s of major importance. But just like focusing on one tree can make one miss the entire forest behind it, the above could make the entire precious metals outlook appear different than it really is. There are multiple factors in place and we will not cover all of them in this essay, but even in case of the mining stocks, there are many factors that gold promoters and those who put a lot of weight in the inverse H&S pattern in mining stocks, are usually not mentioning in their analyses. We’ll discuss some of those factors below.

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Global Warming (Assuming You Believe In It) Does Not Affect Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

When the market, represented by SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD), broke down below 117.40, and then followed below the next support in the 114 region, we were hyper-focused on the 109 region. Thus far, that is where GLD has bottomed out (in overnight action). From there, we were expecting a rally, and the market has not disappointed.

For the last two weeks, I have been outlining how the metals complex was bottoming out and setting up to rally to a minimum target of 116.25 in the GLD. But, if you read my analysis carefully, you would know that I am viewing this rally as a corrective rally, until the market is able to prove otherwise.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Silver's Time Is Coming / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and discusses the factors that he believes will lead silver upward.

Unlike gold and precious metals stocks, silver did not break out strongly on Thursday – although it rose, it did not break out at all, nor was volume exceptional, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. However, this is not a cause for concern, because in the early stages of sector bull markets gold leads, so we can expect silver to "follow suit" shortly. This is worth knowing, because it means that it is still possible to pick up a lot of silver stocks (and ETFs) at knock down silly prices before it really starts to move.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Gold 7-Year Bear Market Phase Is Over / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund uses charts to explain why he believes the gold bear market is over. Thursday was a momentous day for the precious metals sector with gold, GDX and other índices, and giant gold ETF, GLD all breaking out on impressive volume, and this development was all the more extraordinary because it happened when the broad stock market was crashing. This is viewed as a strong sign that instead of being dragged lower still by a crashing stock market, the precious metals sector will soar. Silver hasn’t broken out yet, but it should soon follow suit.

In recent weeks we have been wary that, despite highly favorable COTs and Hedgers charts and rotten sentiment indicators, etc,. a general asset liquidation might drag the precious metals sector even further down, but Thursday's extraordinarily positive action by the sector serves to allay those fears. Of course, it's not hard to see why the precious metals sector might do the opposite to what it did back in 2008 when the market crashed, and it nosedived too. There are two very big differences this time. One is that, before the 2008 crash, the precious metals sector was actually quite elevated. That is in marked contrast to now where it is beaten into the ground with sentiment in the basement – basically it is so unloved and neglected that the only way is up. The other big difference between now and 2008 is that while a major asset liquidation cycle will result in a flight to cash that could drive the dollar significantly higher, beyond that the longer-term outlook for the dollar is grim, with much of the rest of the world, tired of U.S. bullying in the form of sanctions, military threats, and now trade wars, and its unquestioning support of rogue states like Saudi Arabia and Israel, committed to freeing themselves from dollar hegemony – and plans in this direction are now well advanced, with countries like China and Russia having built up big gold reserves that can at some point be used to back their currencies, and workable substitutes for the SWIFT payments system at the trial run phase. Subjected to continuous provocation, China may at some point decide to go for the "nuclear option" and dump its huge Treasury hoard, sending the Treasury market reeling and interest rates skyrocketing, which will cause the US economy to buckle and implode – the U.S. appears to be overlooking that China has this power.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Gold - A Golden Escape / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Richard_Mills

The oil price is rising due to the upcoming restrictions on the sale of Iranian oil - the second of a two-part set of sanctions imposed on the Middle Eastern power following the Trump Administration’s decision in May to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA). Sanctions lifted under the Obama Administration were re-imposed.

Trump said the deal was disastrous for the United States and a security threat. He also said Iran wasn’t following through on a number of changes it agreed to make, such as more diligent inspections, including Iran’s ballistic missile program in the agreement, removing Iran's presence in Lebanon, and stopping funding terrorist groups like Hezbollah.

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Stephen Leeb Predicts 3-Digit Silver and 5 Digit Gold?! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we’ll hear a wonderful interview with first time guest Dr. Stephen Leeb of Leeb Capital Management. Dr. Leeb weighs in on what he believes will be a major fly in the ointment for the U.S. when it comes to the trade war with China and also tells us if he’s still holding onto the thought that we’ll see triple digit silver prices sometime during the next decade. Don’t miss our conversation with the great Stephen Leeb, coming up after this week’s market update.

As Hurricane Michael ravaged Florida, the stock market got ravaged by some of the heaviest selling it’s seen in years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average careened 831 points on Wednesday and plunged another 545 points Thursday. The markets are rebounding somewhat early here on Friday however, although there was still plenty of damage done for the week.

Monday, October 15, 2018

2019’s Hottest Commodity Is About To Explode / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: OilPrice_Com

It’s the most critical economic resource you’ve never heard of.

Element “V”.

Without this unknown commodity, you can’t build as strong a bridge, factory or skyscraper. It’s used extensively in planes, trains and supertankers.

It could soon form the backbone of America’s $386 billion electrical grid.

Forget oil or gold. Wars could even be fought over this unusual metal.

The scary part? None of it is produced in the United States. China, Russia and South Africa control almost all of the global production, and we’re locked in the middle of a trade war.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Consider This Your Final Warning About Gold, For Bulls And Bears Alike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

Sentiment is a funny bedfellow. When the metals market was at the lows back in August, everyone and their mother were again certain that we were going to break below $1,000 in gold. Yet, that exact sentiment is what kept us from doing so, no different than what we saw at the end of 2015.

Currently, the sentiment has been turning bullish again, with many thinking the current rally is the break out everyone has been awaiting. As for me, I am not quite so certain.

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Stock Markets Last Cheap Sector - Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The lofty stock markets suffered a sharp selloff this week that may prove a major inflection point.  There was one lone sector that bucked the heavy selling to surge in the carnage, the gold miners’ stocks.  They are the last cheap sector in these bubble-valued stock markets, long overlooked and neglected.  Wildly undervalued today, the gold stocks have great potential to soar dramatically even if stock markets keep weakening.

Just several weeks ago, the US stock markets hit new all-time record highs stoking universal euphoria.  The flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) closed at 2930.8 in late September, extending its monstrous bull to 333.2% over 9.5 years.  That made for the 2nd-largest and 1st-longest in US stock-market history!  It also left these markets dangerously overvalued, literally trading at bubble valuations.

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Next Points for Crude Oil Bears / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Paul_Rejczak

Thanks to yesterday’s session crude oil lost 3% and approached the previously-broken barrier of $70. In this area oil bears met several other short-term supports, but are they stable enough to stop the sellers in the coming days?

Let’s take a look at the charts below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).