Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2018 Update
Commodities / Crude Oil Oct 09, 2018 - 05:17 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
This is an update to my crude oil price trend forecast for 2018. So firstly a recap of my forecast for for 2018 which since the start of this year has been for the oil price to target a trend to $80.
01 Jan 2018 - Crude Oil Achieves $60 Forecast Expectations for 2017, $80 Next?
Oil is clearly in a bull market and thus I expect the bullish trend to continue and would not be surprised if we see crude oil break above $80 during the year!
My update of late February reaffirmed the $80 target despite the then deep 15% drop.
27 Feb 2018 - Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018
CONCLUSION
Therefore the crude oil price appears likely to remain within a trading range for the next month or so with-in the high of $67 and a low of $58. Thus given that the oil price is currently at $64 is near resistant then the oil price should soon reverse lower to target $58 which is likely to be the trend for most of March 2018 before the next assault on the high as my longer term 2018 forecast for a $80 crude oil price remains in tact.
Whilst my last look at the crude oil price on 20th April again confirmed my expectations for crude oil to hit $80 between August and September 2018.
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO
FORECAST CONCLUSION
The crude oil price appears likely to remain within a trading range for the next month or so within the high of $69 and a low of $61. Whilst my 2018 forecast for a target high of $80 remains intact and which now looks set to be achieved between late August and early September. So I don't expect the Saudi's to get their $100 crude oil price to dump ARAMCO IPO stock on the market this year. Still if the Saudi's time it right they could sell ARAMCO stock whilst the crude oil price is trading near $80.
So here we stand at the end of September with the crude oil price trading at $73 off of its recent high of $76, within touching distance of my $80 forecast target for 2018.
Charts courtesy of https://stockcharts.com
Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
TREND CHANNELS - The oil price for the whole of the 2018 has been trading within the upper band of trend channel that extend towards a high of $80 by the end of 2018, which is the primary reason for my original forecast target.
So far the trend channel has held of breaking into the lower channel therefore current support is at $67 which should contain any correction lower. However whilst bullish, the trend channel curve as I mentioned in April is quite shallow which means the progress higher for the crude oil price is likely to be slow which so far is the pattern observed. So don't expect a sudden spike to $100 any time soon, instead it's a steady quiet trend higher, probably under the radar of many investors who likely will wake up to news of crude oil hitting $80 and wondering how it got there out of the blue.
RESISTANCE is at previous major support at $90 which suggests oil price trend should continue higher towards that level.
SUPPORT is in the area $58 to $60, and $64 that should contain corrections within the rising trend channel.
ELLIOT WAVE - Elliott wave is implying that the oil price will breakdown and target $60 BEFORE heading higher once more i.e. currently in a Wave 4 correction, of which approx half has been completed, therefore suggesting $60 rather than $80 by late December. So EW is not matching trend analysis.
SEASONAL ANALYSIS - oil prices tend to rally into late summer and then fall into early winter, which supports what elliot waves are saying.
FORECAST CONCLUSION
Therefore my forecast remains as at the start of the year that the crude oil price will target a trend to $80 which is not likely to be achieve during late December / early January 2019 as so far it is not showing any signs of wanting to breakdown into the lower end of its trend channel the consequences of which would be it would take a lot longer to get to $80.
What About Beyond 2018?
The trend trajectory is such that the oil price is likely to target a trend to at least $90 during 2019 and I would not be surprised if it even spikes to $100 as tends to happen when speculators who had their eyes elsewhere suddenly realise that oil is in a bull market. So as things stand today I expect the oil price bull market continue well into 2019.
My forecast conclusion was first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Your analyst,
Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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