Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, October 12, 2018
Gold Action Does Not Make Sense / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have been hearing for years how gold is manipulated to go down, and is expected to rise when allowed to trade freely. So, according to these manipulation theorists, gold is really only supposed to move in one direction and would never see any corrections.
Yes, I know that sounds ridiculous, but this is a perspective in the market. And this is why so many were not able to foresee the correction which began in 2011.
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
Gold GDX Is Being Torn Apart / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Rising interest rates are good for metals. Rising interest rates are bad for metals. We have heard the arguments from both sides. In fact, I think it is no different when people claim inflation is good for gold relative to those who believe deflation is good for gold.
Personally, I don’t think either side is correct, as we have seen periods of time where both sides were seemingly correct. That means we have seen periods of time where both sides were seemingly wrong. So, what does that tell you?
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Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Here’s Why Gold Stocks, Gold, and Silver Are Great Buys Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Frank_Holmes
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason. Coming up we’ve got a wonderful interview with Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. Frank talks about some key developments in the gold community and why he believes a key merger in the gold mining industry could be a good indicator of a market bottom. He also shares his thoughts about Vanguard’s recent decision that leaves many gold investors hung out to dry. This is a must-hear interview with Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.
Precious metals markets struggled this week against the forces of rising bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Where have we heard that before? Despite these headwinds, gold is holding up pretty well as it trades around the $1,200 level in a narrow range where it’s been locked in for the past month.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Oil Price Rally Boosts Electric Car Sales / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Tesla’s competition is about to get more crowded next year with many legacy automakers and luxury brands launching a record number of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.
All EV makers will have one common element that could help lift demand for battery vehicles—rising oil prices leading to fuel prices at four-year highs, which could turn consumers towards EVs.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2018
A Bottom in Gold but not THE Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold has struggled to rebound despite an extreme oversold condition and extreme bearish sentiment. Nevertheless, conditions for Gold have not worsened in recent days. In fact, Gold as well as gold stocks appear to be basing for a potential rebound into the holiday season. While some gold bulls expect a major bottom, we aren’t in that camp because the fundamentals are not in place yet to support a sustained advance.
The weekly chart below shows several positives for Gold.
First, last week Gold made a somewhat bullish candle after six weeks of testing $1180-$1190 support and failing to make new lows. With a daily close above $1215, a short-term bottom would be confirmed.
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Tuesday, October 09, 2018
Will Crude Oil Follow Historical Patterns? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., has been very interested in Oil recently as the current rally appears to have rotated lower near a top. Our predictive modeling systems, predictive cycle analysis and other tools suggest Oil/Energy may be setting up for a downward price trend. This may be an excellent opportunity for skilled traders to identify profitable trades as this trend matures.
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Tuesday, October 09, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2018 Update / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is an update to my crude oil price trend forecast for 2018. So firstly a recap of my forecast for for 2018 which since the start of this year has been for the oil price to target a trend to $80.
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Tuesday, October 09, 2018
The Gold Standard: Protector of Individual Liberty and Economic Prosperity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Antonius_Aquinas
The idea of a constitution and/or written legislation to secure individual rights so beloved by conservatives and among many libertarians has proven to be a myth. The US Constitution and all those that have been written and ratified in its wake throughout the world have done little to protect individual liberties or keep a check on State largesse. Instead, in the American case, the Constitution created a powerful central government which eliminated much of the sovereignty and independence that the individual states possessed under the Articles of Confederation.
While the US Constitution contains a “Bill of Rights,” the interpreter of those rights and protections thereof is the very entity which has enumerated them. It is only natural that decisions on whether, or if such rights have been violated will be in favor of the state. Moreover, nearly every amendment which has come in the wake of the Bill of Rights, has augmented federal power at the expense of the individual states and that of property owners.
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Monday, October 08, 2018
Inflation Is Starting To Heat Up / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gary_Savage
For years now analysts, and the media have been trying to convince everyone there is no inflation despite central banks massive quantitative easing programs. Of course this is ridiculous. They just choose to ignore where the inflation has manifested.
In 2008 inflation spiked in the commodity markets contributing to the severity of the last recession. One could even make a strong case inflation was the main cause of the recession. From 2011 until recently inflation has focused mostly in asset markets, especially the stock market. But it’s also appeared in healthcare, housing prices, insurance premiums, education, etc. So to claim there has been no inflation one has to willfully turn a blind eye to where the inflation is. We’ve actually had massive inflation, it’s just that it has run mostly in sectors that people don’t mind seeing inflation, namely the stock market. I think that is about to change.
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Monday, October 08, 2018
Barrick Randgold Deal Breathes New Life into Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Richard_Mills
Despite having a rough summer, with a number of factors pushing gold below $1,200 an ounce (the high dollar, US economic growth, interest rate hikes, booming stock markets), the precious metal appears to be back in favor, with December gold futures closing Tuesday’s trading at $1,207 an ounce - a two-week high. In 10 minutes, Bloomberg reported, December gold contracts equal to 1.57 million ounces changed hands on the Comex in New York - almost 12 times the 100-day average volume at that time of day. The catalyst was fresh safe-haven demand owing to political uncertainty in Italy. A government official reportedly said Italy would be better off with its own currency, adding to doubts about the country’s fiscal situation. The EU has to pass Italy’s budget and many think it won’t cut the mustard.
“An IMF Financial Statistics Report reveals that Egypt recently bought gold for the first time since 1978, and that India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have re-entered the gold market after years-long absences. And Bloomberg reported that the Bank of Mongolia has purchased 12.2 tonnes of gold so far this year.
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Monday, October 08, 2018
The Chartology of Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
Several weeks ago we looked at some resistance points for gold and silver from the short to the longer term time perspective. Below is a daily chart for gold which starts with the 2018 five point rectangle reversal pattern which broke down in May. The backtest to the underside of the five point rectangle took about five weeks to complete, forming a bearish rising wedge. From that point the impulse move down began in earnest stopping in mid July to form a small rectangle. After trading sideways for about three weeks gold broke down from that small rectangle and finally bottomed in mid August where it began a countertrend rally.
Sunday, October 07, 2018
One More Bounce for the Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Harry_Dent
You know by now that I think gold is above all a commodity, and in a bubble that was more extreme than stocks… a bubble that’s been bursting since September 2011, but…Gold and bitcoin are two examples of bubbles bursting that are NOT following my bubble model as well as most. Both, thus far, are basing out at higher levels than I expected.
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Saturday, October 06, 2018
How Commodities Will Perform in the 'Impending Massive Credit Crunch' / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund looks at the factors that he sees are behind a massive credit crunch and discusses how the markets could react. An enormous "sword of Damocles" hangs over all markets now. A massive liquidity drain is underway as global QE reverses into QT and rates rise against the background of immense ubiquitous crippling debt burdens. What this means is that the biggest credit crunch of all time is bearing down on us, which will involve markets crashing in the absence of bids, serious dislocation of capital markets and out of control interest rates.
This is probably the high point for Trump's presidency as the stock market enjoys its final "swansong rally" ahead of the crash, buoyed up the last of the stock buybacks before rising rates choke them off, and the dumbest of the dumb money who think that because the market has been in an uptrend for years it's going to continue.
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Saturday, October 06, 2018
Gold Stocks Recovering / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The battered gold miners’ stocks are finally starting to recover after a rough few months. Their prices slid with gold in July, plummeted in a brutal forced capitulation in August, and then dropped again in an echo capitulation into mid-September. That left them at fundamentally-absurd price levels wildly disconnected from their actual profitability, leaving this sector with big mean-reversion upside ahead as it bounces back.
The leading gold-stock investment vehicle and increasingly benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. As of this week it still had $8.5b of net assets even at today’s super-depressed gold-stock prices. That dwarfs everything else in the 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF space, running 40.5x bigger than its next largest competitor! So GDX is the dominant proxy for the fortunes of the gold miners’ stocks.
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Saturday, October 06, 2018
Prepare for a Gold/Silver Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our modeling systems are suggesting that Gold and Silver will begin a new upside rally very quickly. We wrote about how our modeling systems are suggesting this upside move could be a tremendous opportunity for investors over 2 weeks ago. Our initial target is near the $1245 level and our second target is near the $1309 level. Recent lows help to confirm this upside projection as the most recent low prices created a price rotation that supports further upside price action. What is needed right now is a push above $1220 before we begin to see the real acceleration higher.
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Saturday, October 06, 2018
More Evidence Of Manipulation In The Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
This past week, we saw that the Bank of Nova Scotia was charged by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission with multiple acts of spoofing in gold and silver futures between June 2013 and June 2016. Traders placed orders to buy or sell precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel the orders before execution, the CFTC said.
So, the tin-foil hat wearers are back out in full force screaming about how this market rigging has caused gold to collapse over the last seven years. Unfortunately, anyone who believes this is simply not dealing with the facts of any of the supposed “manipulation” cases. You see, believing that these manipulation cases caused the gold market to drop from is 2011 high is no different from believing that a paper cut can cause someone to bleed to death.
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Friday, October 05, 2018
Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TREND CHANNELS - The oil price for the whole of the 2018 has been trading within the upper band of trend channel that extend towards a high of $80 by the end of 2018, which is the primary reason for my original forecast target.
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
Gold Miners Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern? Really? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold rallied, silver rallied, and mining stocks rallied. That’s how one can summarize yesterday’s session. The volume was huge, so it appears that a major upswing has just begun. But is this really the case? As always, just because things look encouraging and the emotions are high, it doesn’t mean that anything changed. One needs to step back from the day-to-day price and volume changes and look at the factors that are in place right now without any biases. No hopes, no “feelings toward the market”, and no worries about missing the boat. Just facts and logic. Let’s start with gold (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Thursday, October 04, 2018
Gold and Silver Bottoming Pattern May Be in Process / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical expert Jack Chan updates the gold and silver charts, including what he believes to be a bottoming pattern.
Our proprietary cycle indicator is now up.
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Wednesday, October 03, 2018
Ratcheting Up the Gold Friendly COT Tension / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the most recent gold COT report and movements in the market. Once again the COT report from last Tuesday has revealed continued pressure on the already taut firing pins of the gold and silver markets with more shorts added by the Large Spec algobots and more longs/fewer shorts reported by the Commercials largely represented by the bullion banks. If it is the gold cartel that has capped rallies in the $1,350-1,375 range since August 2016, it is that same gold cartel that are actually positioned for a rally today and where the market is baffling everyone is the failure of the Crimex Criminals to launch the rally. The answer lies in the ascent of the machines in dictating direction in any and all markets. Whereas the algos have been focused on all things non-metal in recent years, they have taken to the gold and silver markets lately and are displaying phenomenal power and control in thwarting the intentions of the bullion bank cartel.