Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, September 14, 2018

Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my third article in a series of 5 to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

1. Gold Price Trend 2018 Recap
2. Trend Analysis
3. Seasonal Analysis
4. US Dollar
5. Forecast Conclusion

Friday, September 14, 2018

My Goodness, What Is Happening to Platinum? / Commodities / Platinum

By: MoneyMetals

You may have noticed the platinum price has fallen well below gold’s price and it continues to underperform the other precious metals. What is happening in the platinum market?

We see a handful of factors driving the recent declines in platinum. For starters, it is facing the same challenges we find in the gold and silver markets.

Friday, September 14, 2018

Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the second video in a series of 5 to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

1. Gold Price Trend 2018 Recap
2. Trend Analysis
3. Seasonal Analysis
4. US Dollar
5. Forecast Conclusion

Thursday, September 13, 2018

Gold, Silver, and USD Index - Three Important “Nothings” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Today’s analysis is going to be different than the other ones. We usually discuss what happened on a given day, week, or month and we elaborate on what it changed and what it didn’t change in case of the outlook for gold, silver, and mining stocks. But not today. Today, we are going to focus on what didn’t happen. At the first sight it seems that this means that there was no new signal. That’s not the case. The three important “nothings” that we will discuss in today’s article have important implications for the following days. That is if one knows where to look.

Let’s start with the first chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Thursday, September 13, 2018

Precious Metals Sector On a Long-term SELL Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

In his weekly precious metals market update, technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Gold Nuggets And Silver Bullets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Kelsey_Williams

It is very difficult to let go of someone – or something – when we have invested so much time and energy in it. It is even harder when we have invested so much of ourselves in it; when the outcome is not what we expected; when our reputation is at stake.

In this particular case, that something is gold and silver.

The emotional proclamations just a few weeks ago seemed quite strong, almost being religious in their fervor. But after two thrusts of the dagger to the heart, the explanations afterwards seem a bit hollow. 

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

For Gold, It's All About the Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss the factors that they believe could cause a powerful rally in gold.

Positioning, sentiment and market structure favor a powerful rally in gold. The COTs released by the CME on September 7, 2018, show the gross speculative short position grew 1.3% to 213,259 contracts, just shy of the all-time record set two weeks ago. On a net basis, speculators are short 13,500 contracts, the largest short position since December, 2001. The commercial net short position collapsed into negative territory for the first time since December, 2001 at -6,525 contracts. In other words, commercials are now net LONG, a very rare occurrence historically seen only at major turning points.

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Gold Price Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the second article in a series of 5 to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

1. Gold Price Trend 2018 Recap
2. Trend Analysis
3. Seasonal Analysis
4. US Dollar
5. Forecast Conclusion

However the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 9th of September. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

The Downside For Oil Price Is Limited / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

More than two weeks of nearly uninterrupted price gains for crude oil ended this week, with the rally running out of steam. The question is what happens next?

Oil prices posted steep losses just as the bulls were back on the march. WTI briefly topped $70 per barrel in recent days and Brent was flirting with $80. But the rally was kneecapped by a variety of factors, and it could be challenging to break above those key pricing thresholds in the near future.

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

ALERT: Gold-to-Silver Ratio Spikes to Highest Level in 27 Years! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jason_Hamlin

The gold-silver ratio has been one of the most reliable technical ‘buy’ indictors for silver, whenever the ratio climbs above 80. The gold-to-silver ratio has now spiked above 85, which is the highest level of this entire 18-year bull market! In fact, you have to go back 27 years to 1991 for the ratio to be higher than it is today. Amazingly, the ratio is currently higher than it was at the depths of the 2008-09 financial crisis (circled in the chart below).

Monday, September 10, 2018

Gold Price 2018 Trend - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In this series of 5 videos I will conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018. However the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 9th of September. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Sunday, September 09, 2018

Gold Price Balanced on a Knife Edge at $1200 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Gold price that began 2018 strongly continuing it's bull run from a Mid December 2017 swing low of 1238, rising to a February peak of $1365 before correcting to a March low of $1309 that set the scene for a trading range of $1365 to $1309 pending a breakout higher. Then two further attempts at breaking above $1365 failed to materialise, instead resulting in the Gold price breaking below $1309 support during May which put the Gold price on a decidedly downwards trend trajectory where each rally off each subsequent low failed to follow through, thus resulting in a relentless downtrend all the way to what at the start of the year would have seemed a completely unimaginable price for Gold to trade down to by Mid year of $1167.

Sunday, September 09, 2018

The Gold Price Rally is Finally Here! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Austin_Galt

Pattern – price looks to have capitulated into a low at $1162 and I am now looking for price to trade down and set up a higher low.

Bollinger Bands – price fell just short of the upper band and is now back at the middle band which has been providing support. I expect this support to give way with price pushing into the lower band to set up the higher low.

Saturday, September 08, 2018

Long Term Gold and Currency Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to update some of the PM charts we’ve been following to see how they’ve been progressing starting with the massive ten year H&S top on gold. Since the price action broke below the neckline several weeks ago it’s a week to week observation to see how the backtest is playing out. The backtest to the neckline comes in around the 1225 area with this weeks high at 1212.70 so the backtest held for another week. What we need to see next for the current move lower to continue is to see a new weekly close below the previous weekly low.

Saturday, September 08, 2018

The Bullish CoT Setups in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

You may know me as the guy using weird planetary alignments while assigning proper fundamentals to the gold sector, and recently even doing the same with a somewhat subjective and philosophical view of gold as an important counterweight or insurance component to a sensible portfolio. Or you may know me as the guy who confuses you with too many market indicators or annoys you with too many exposés of the more promotional and/or manipulative entities out there.

Or you may not know me at all.

If that is the case, let me introduce myself. My name is Gary and today I have a very simple post for your consideration. We will look at the now compelling views of the Commitments of Traders (CoT) data for gold and silver. While the prices of the metals are and have been technically bearish and the fundamentals are and have been poor, sentiment (CoT is ultimately a sentiment thing, after all) setups like those shown below should not be ignored. We are talking historic in silver and merely compelling in gold.

Friday, September 07, 2018

Congressmen Introduce Bill to End Taxation of Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Washington, DC (September 7, 2018) – The battle to end taxation of constitutional money has reached the federal level as U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) today introduced sound money legislation to remove all federal income taxation from gold and silver coins and bullion.

The Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act – backed by the Sound Money Defense League, Money Metals Exchange, and free-market activists – would clarify that the sale or exchange of precious metals bullion and coins are not to be included in capital gains, losses, or any other type of federal income calculation.

Friday, September 07, 2018

Record Gold and Silver Shorts! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold and silver were thrashed this past summer, relentlessly pounded to deep new lows.  That has fueled extreme bearishness, with traders convinced the precious metals’ fundamentals are rotten.  But epic all-time-record futures short selling by speculators was the real culprit.  These unprecedented shorts must soon be covered with proportional buying, which is super-bullish for gold and silver prices in the coming months.

Traders generally assume fundamentals drive short-term price action, that real imbalances in supply and demand push prices to market-clearing levels.  Unfortunately these core underlying dynamics are heavily distorted in gold and silver.  Futures speculators who never own these precious metals are able to wield wildly-disproportional outsized influence over their prices.  The main reason is extreme leverage inherent in futures.

Friday, September 07, 2018

Gold Asks: If Not Recession, Then What? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We are on the verge of recession. The Fed tightens and in the past it has never ended well. Yield curve is almost flat. When it inverses, it will be the end. All the bubbles will burst, pushing the global economy into another crisis. It will be more serious than all the previous cases, especially given that Trump will trigger a trade war or maybe even a conventional one.

Have you heard these gloomy prophecies? We have. Many times, probably too many times. But what if they are wrong? Let’s run our imagination wild and think what if this time is really different. We know, we know: it isn’t. But, as a counterweight for all these pessimistic narratives, let’s see what is the most rosy scenario for the world – and what does it imply for the gold market.

Friday, September 07, 2018

Gold Miners Setting Up for Big Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The recent rally attempt of the gold stocks fizzled out as the December 2016 lows failed to hold. Now the miners are making new lows. As they pine for the next support they figure to be even more oversold as more bulls throw in the towel. These are the conditions needed to engender a significant counter-trend rebound. While we aren’t predicting it yet, look for a bullish reversal to begin sometime in the next few weeks.

The gold stocks have lost their December 2016 support but strong support is not too far away. The breakdown in GDX below $21 projects to a measured downside target of roughly $16.50. That aligns with the next strong support level on the chart. The breakdown in GDXJ projects down to the $23-$24 area. That is very close to the next strong support level around $24-$25.

Thursday, September 06, 2018

Crude Oil Price Likely To Find Support In Uptrend / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I have focused my attention on the recent price rotation in the Crude Oil market.  I believe the recent downside rotation in price, while technically still in a bullish trend, is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify entry positions for a potential price rally to levels near of above $70~71 ppb.

My proprietary price modeling systems and price cycle systems are clearly illustrating that Oil prices should find support, bottom and rotate higher within the next 5~7+ days.  I rely on these proprietary indicators and modeling systems to help understand when opportunities exist in the markets.  When I can determine that price is moving counter to a primary trend and creating what I call a “price anomaly”, where enhanced opportunity exists for a profitable outcome, I attempt to determine if this trigger warrants alerting our followers.  In this case, I believe the opportunity for upside price action following this price rotation is exceptional.