Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Swiss Gold Referendum A Golden Opportunity for Switzerland / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Thorsten_Polleit
The referendum on the Swiss Gold Initiative will take place on November 30.1 The Initiative demands the following: (1) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) shall be prohibited from selling any of its gold reserves; (2) the SNB’s gold reserves must be stored in Switzerland; and (3) the SNB must keep at least 20 percent of its assets in gold (i.e., the “20-percent rule”).
The balance sheet of the SNB currently amounts to 522.3bn CHF (Swiss francs), with its gold holdings and claims from gold transactions amounting to 39.4bn CHF. The share of gold of the SNB’s assets is therefore about 7.5 percent — substantially lower than what the Initiative calls for.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Silver: What COT Analysis Tells Us / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: DeviantInvestor
Each week the CFTC publishes a Commitments of Traders Report (COT) in which “non-commercial” and “commercial” long and short futures positions are reported. Many people have expressed doubts as to the validity, accuracy and consistency of the data. However, my experience is that the data is mostly relevant, accurate, and useful in the long term, but not necessarily important each week.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
U.S. Dollar Near Top? Gold and Silver Trading, Platinum Breakout Invalidation / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Yesterday was a day when the precious metals market took a breather, but it's not true that nothing changed at all. Friday's breakout in platinum was invalidated. Is this a "short again" signal?
In short, not really, because this signal - even though it's bearish - is not enough to make the situation very bearish on its own.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Gold Price Forecast 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: EWI
Greetings,
I just read a special report on a major market development you should be aware of, right now ......
A potentially BIG near- to intermediate-term opportunity in GOLD, a market no one else wants to talk about.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
The Swiss Referendum On Gold: What’s Missing From The Debate / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldSilverWorlds
This article is written by Eric Schreiber, independent asset manager, former head of commodities UBP, former head of precious metals Credit Suisse Zurich. All views expressed are his and may not reflect those of his former employers.
The Swiss will vote on a referendum on November 30th that would ban the Swiss National Bank (SNB) from selling current and future gold reserves, repatriate foreign stored gold holdings to Switzerland, and mandate that gold must comprise a minimum of 20% of central bank assets. The SNB does not usually comment on political referendums. However, in this case it has done so quite vocally.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Where Is the Price of Crude Oil Price Going? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a stop-loss at $72.78 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil gained 0.47% as Thursday's solid U.S. data and talks that OPEC may consider trimming production continued to support the commodity. As a result, light crude left the recent consolidation and closed the day above $76. Will we see a rally to $80 in the coming days?
On Friday, crude oil climbed to an intraday high of $77.83 as the combination of solid U.S. data continued to support the commodity. How did this increase affected the very short-term picture of crude oil? (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, November 24, 2014
The Gold Clock is Ticking in Switzerland / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Peter_Schiff
For most of my career in international investing, I had always placed a great deal of faith in Switzerland's financial markets. In recent years, however, as the Swiss government has sought to hitch its wagon to the flailing euro currency and kowtow increasingly to U.S.-based financial requirements, this faith has been shaken. But this week (November 30th) a referendum in Switzerland on whether its central bank will be required to hold at least 20% of its reserves in gold, will offer ordinary Swiss citizens a rare opportunity to reclaim their country's strong economic heritage. It's a vote that few outside Switzerland are following, but the outcome could make an enormous impact on the global economy.
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Monday, November 24, 2014
Why Gold Price is Headed Much Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Pento
What really drives the price of gold? Some say it's a fear gauge. Others prefer to look at the demand coming from the Indian wedding season. But the silliest of all conclusions to reach is that the dollar price of gold should be determined solely by its value vis-à-vis another fiat currency.
The truth is the primary driver of gold is the intrinsic value of the dollar itself, not its value on the Dollar Index (DXY). The intrinsic value of the dollar can be determined by the level of real interest rates. Real interest rates are calculated by subtracting the rate of inflation from a country's "risk free" sovereign yield. Right now the level of real interest rates in the U.S. is a negative 1.55%.
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Monday, November 24, 2014
The 2014 Crude Oil Price Crash Explained / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
This is an article by our good friend Euan Mearns at the University of Aberdeen. It was originally published here .
- In February 2009 Phil Hart published on The Oil Drum a simple supply demand model that explained then the action in the oil price. In this post I update Phil’s model to July 2014 using monthly oil supply (crude+condensate) and price data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA).
- This model explains how a drop in demand for oil of only 1 million barrels per day can account for the fall in price from $110 to below $80 per barrel.
- The future price will be determined by demand, production capacity and OPEC production constraint. A further fall in demand of the order 1 Mbpd may see the price fall below $60. Conversely, at current demand, an OPEC production cut of the order 1 Mbpd may send the oil price back up towards $100. It seems that volatility has returned to the oil market.
Monday, November 24, 2014
122 Tonnes of Gold Secretly Repatriated to Netherlands / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
The Dutch central bank said Friday it is repatriating some of its gold reserves from the U.S., making it the latest central bank in Europe to address public concerns about the safety of its gold in the wake of the eurozone debt crisis.
As the debate regarding whether or not Switzerland should keep the bulk of its gold reserves at home on Swiss soil reaches it's climax - the referendum takes place on Sunday - it is telling that the Dutch announced on Friday that they have just secretly repatriated 122 tonnes of their sovereign gold reserves from New York back to Amsterdam.
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Monday, November 24, 2014
Gold, Silver, and Blue Dollars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
“Whether the single medium is gold, silver, seashells, cattle, or tobacco is optional, depending on the context and development of a given economy. In fact, all have been employed, at various times, as media of exchange. Even in the present century, two major commodities, gold and silver, have been used as international media of exchange, with gold becoming the predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional uses and being relatively scarce, has significant advantages over all other media of exchange.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Gold Golden Gains Come After The Pain / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Richard_Mills
HUI/Gold Ratio, National Inflation Association
When the HGR is rising, gold stocks are outperforming gold. Conversely when the HGR is falling, gold is outperforming gold stocks.
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Sunday, November 23, 2014
Why Crude Oil $80 Is the New Normal, Reasons Saudi Arabia Will Not “Swing” / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
Now the dust from the Shock & Awe of the 30% drop in oil prices has started to settle, two things are clear: (a) Saudi Arabia did not engineer anything (b) they don’t have a Machiavellian plan to stick one up the wildcatters in North Dakota, or the Russians...the Iranians...the Venezuelans, or even the genius from the Daily Telegraph who was bemoaning the fact that if oil prices go down it will be hard to import inflation into U.K.
Here are five good reasons why they are going to pass on the opportunity to slash their oil production by 30% so that other OPEC members can cheat and make a windfall, like they all did in 1987/8.
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Who’s Ready For $30 Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
How low can and will oil prices go, and what will the effects of those prices be? I bet you’ll have a hard time finding even just two people who have the same opinion on that. Not that it’s merely a matter of opinion, mind you, there are a great number of real life factors that come into play. It’s not an easy game.
OPEC gets together next week, and it’s a cartel divided. Many if not most of its members are suffering some kind of losses at present prices, and the obvious choice seems to be to cut output in order to raise prices again. But that’s not easy either, because at lower prices they need more output, not less, to minimize the damage. Besides, is non-OPEC producers don’t cut their output, OPWC cuts may do very little to lift prices.
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Sunday, November 23, 2014
The Swiss Gold Referendum - Cat Among The Pigeons / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Andrew_McKillop
November 30, 2014
On November 30, Swiss voters head to the polls on three separate questions: abolishing a flat tax on resident foreigners who do not work or presently pay income tax, a numbers-based cap on immigration, and a proposal to radically increase Swiss gold reserves and forbid the sale of reserves. Gold loans which would bring down the reserve total below th new target for reserves, sometime in 2019 would also be forbidden, but this is only implicid in the referendum question.
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Gold Price 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: EWI
Greetings,
I just read a special report on a major market development you should be aware of, right now ......
A potentially BIG near- to intermediate-term opportunity in GOLD, a market no one else wants to talk about.
Though the authors of the report plan to officially release their findings to everyone in 24 hours, I have arranged for you to get an exclusive, early look at their report. Yes, they have agreed to embargo its release elsewhere for 24 hours so you can have the first look at it.
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Saturday, November 22, 2014
Is the Gold And Silver Golden Rule Broken? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
He who owns the gold rules.
That has been the clichéd "wisdom" for some time. However it appears Russia has become the Rodney Dangerfield of the Golden Rule, for it certainly is not getting any respect. To the contrary, the Golden Rule has become subservient to Military Rule, the last remaining leg upon which the US rests in its ongoing inability to retain respect internationally.
As formidable as US military might is, it is not always effective in execution, and to date, it has only been [in]effective against those nations that have no military might, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan. Syria is still a work in process, but the only reason why Syria has not been destroyed, like the other countries, is because Russia, Putin, stepped in to expose the Obomb-em administration and false flag "insurgent" gassing of citizens.
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Saturday, November 22, 2014
Investors Hated Gold at Precisely the Wrong Time: What About Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: EWI
Sentiment extremes often foretell major turns in financial markets
Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.
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Saturday, November 22, 2014
Bitcoin Price Moving to Below $350? / Commodities / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: no speculative positions.
Mozilla has started accepting Bitcoin donations, we read on CoinDesk:
Read full article... Read full article...Mozilla, the open-source development community behind the popular Firefox web browser, is now accepting bitcoin donations.
The Mozilla Foundation, the non-profit entity that provides support for the community's broad open-source development, will be partnering with Coinbase to accept bitcoin contributions. The California-based bitcoin services provider announced the deal on its blog, where it reinforced that, per its policies toward charities, it will not charge fees for the donations it processes.
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Gold and GLD ETF Selloff / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has suffered a rough couple of months, getting pounded below major support. One driver was stock-market capital flowing out of gold again, as evidenced by renewed differential selling pressure seen in gold-ETF shares. But this was minor compared to last year’s, despite extreme bearish sentiment plaguing gold. Gold-ETF selling exhaustion has effectively been hit, paving the way for big rebound buying.
The dominant gold ETF remains the American SPDR Gold Shares, which trades as GLD. This vehicle revolutionized gold trading for stock investors, creating a quick and efficient conduit for the vast pools of stock capital to migrate into and out of gold. And since GLD just celebrated its 10th birthday this week, it’s a great time to take another look at it. Starting from humble beginnings, GLD has matured into a gold juggernaut.
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