Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, November 24, 2014
The 2014 Crude Oil Price Crash Explained / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
This is an article by our good friend Euan Mearns at the University of Aberdeen. It was originally published here .
- In February 2009 Phil Hart published on The Oil Drum a simple supply demand model that explained then the action in the oil price. In this post I update Phil’s model to July 2014 using monthly oil supply (crude+condensate) and price data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA).
- This model explains how a drop in demand for oil of only 1 million barrels per day can account for the fall in price from $110 to below $80 per barrel.
- The future price will be determined by demand, production capacity and OPEC production constraint. A further fall in demand of the order 1 Mbpd may see the price fall below $60. Conversely, at current demand, an OPEC production cut of the order 1 Mbpd may send the oil price back up towards $100. It seems that volatility has returned to the oil market.
Monday, November 24, 2014
122 Tonnes of Gold Secretly Repatriated to Netherlands / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
The Dutch central bank said Friday it is repatriating some of its gold reserves from the U.S., making it the latest central bank in Europe to address public concerns about the safety of its gold in the wake of the eurozone debt crisis.
As the debate regarding whether or not Switzerland should keep the bulk of its gold reserves at home on Swiss soil reaches it's climax - the referendum takes place on Sunday - it is telling that the Dutch announced on Friday that they have just secretly repatriated 122 tonnes of their sovereign gold reserves from New York back to Amsterdam.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 24, 2014
Gold, Silver, and Blue Dollars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
“Whether the single medium is gold, silver, seashells, cattle, or tobacco is optional, depending on the context and development of a given economy. In fact, all have been employed, at various times, as media of exchange. Even in the present century, two major commodities, gold and silver, have been used as international media of exchange, with gold becoming the predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional uses and being relatively scarce, has significant advantages over all other media of exchange.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Gold Golden Gains Come After The Pain / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Richard_Mills
HUI/Gold Ratio, National Inflation Association
When the HGR is rising, gold stocks are outperforming gold. Conversely when the HGR is falling, gold is outperforming gold stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Why Crude Oil $80 Is the New Normal, Reasons Saudi Arabia Will Not “Swing” / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
Now the dust from the Shock & Awe of the 30% drop in oil prices has started to settle, two things are clear: (a) Saudi Arabia did not engineer anything (b) they don’t have a Machiavellian plan to stick one up the wildcatters in North Dakota, or the Russians...the Iranians...the Venezuelans, or even the genius from the Daily Telegraph who was bemoaning the fact that if oil prices go down it will be hard to import inflation into U.K.
Here are five good reasons why they are going to pass on the opportunity to slash their oil production by 30% so that other OPEC members can cheat and make a windfall, like they all did in 1987/8.
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Who’s Ready For $30 Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
How low can and will oil prices go, and what will the effects of those prices be? I bet you’ll have a hard time finding even just two people who have the same opinion on that. Not that it’s merely a matter of opinion, mind you, there are a great number of real life factors that come into play. It’s not an easy game.
OPEC gets together next week, and it’s a cartel divided. Many if not most of its members are suffering some kind of losses at present prices, and the obvious choice seems to be to cut output in order to raise prices again. But that’s not easy either, because at lower prices they need more output, not less, to minimize the damage. Besides, is non-OPEC producers don’t cut their output, OPWC cuts may do very little to lift prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 23, 2014
The Swiss Gold Referendum - Cat Among The Pigeons / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Andrew_McKillop
November 30, 2014
On November 30, Swiss voters head to the polls on three separate questions: abolishing a flat tax on resident foreigners who do not work or presently pay income tax, a numbers-based cap on immigration, and a proposal to radically increase Swiss gold reserves and forbid the sale of reserves. Gold loans which would bring down the reserve total below th new target for reserves, sometime in 2019 would also be forbidden, but this is only implicid in the referendum question.
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Gold Price 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: EWI
Greetings,
I just read a special report on a major market development you should be aware of, right now ......
A potentially BIG near- to intermediate-term opportunity in GOLD, a market no one else wants to talk about.
Though the authors of the report plan to officially release their findings to everyone in 24 hours, I have arranged for you to get an exclusive, early look at their report. Yes, they have agreed to embargo its release elsewhere for 24 hours so you can have the first look at it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Is the Gold And Silver Golden Rule Broken? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
He who owns the gold rules.
That has been the clichéd "wisdom" for some time. However it appears Russia has become the Rodney Dangerfield of the Golden Rule, for it certainly is not getting any respect. To the contrary, the Golden Rule has become subservient to Military Rule, the last remaining leg upon which the US rests in its ongoing inability to retain respect internationally.
As formidable as US military might is, it is not always effective in execution, and to date, it has only been [in]effective against those nations that have no military might, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan. Syria is still a work in process, but the only reason why Syria has not been destroyed, like the other countries, is because Russia, Putin, stepped in to expose the Obomb-em administration and false flag "insurgent" gassing of citizens.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Investors Hated Gold at Precisely the Wrong Time: What About Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: EWI
Sentiment extremes often foretell major turns in financial markets
Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Bitcoin Price Moving to Below $350? / Commodities / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: no speculative positions.
Mozilla has started accepting Bitcoin donations, we read on CoinDesk:
Read full article... Read full article...Mozilla, the open-source development community behind the popular Firefox web browser, is now accepting bitcoin donations.
The Mozilla Foundation, the non-profit entity that provides support for the community's broad open-source development, will be partnering with Coinbase to accept bitcoin contributions. The California-based bitcoin services provider announced the deal on its blog, where it reinforced that, per its policies toward charities, it will not charge fees for the donations it processes.
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Gold and GLD ETF Selloff / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has suffered a rough couple of months, getting pounded below major support. One driver was stock-market capital flowing out of gold again, as evidenced by renewed differential selling pressure seen in gold-ETF shares. But this was minor compared to last year’s, despite extreme bearish sentiment plaguing gold. Gold-ETF selling exhaustion has effectively been hit, paving the way for big rebound buying.
The dominant gold ETF remains the American SPDR Gold Shares, which trades as GLD. This vehicle revolutionized gold trading for stock investors, creating a quick and efficient conduit for the vast pools of stock capital to migrate into and out of gold. And since GLD just celebrated its 10th birthday this week, it’s a great time to take another look at it. Starting from humble beginnings, GLD has matured into a gold juggernaut.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 21, 2014
Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) Breaking Three Month Downtrend? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Jeb_Handwerger
For several weeks I have been expecting a major secular bottom in precious metals and the junior miner. I told you to watch for the accumulation after a shakeout. See the full article from several weeks ago by clicking on the following link.
Friday, November 21, 2014
Better Tone for Volatile Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Gold has had a volatile week, but rose from $1147 last Friday afternoon to a high of $1205 on Tuesday. On Wednesday the price moved between down $25 on the latest opinion poll on the Swiss referendum, then recovered to $23 before falling again on the release of the Fed's FOMC minutes. However, despite these unsettling swings gold rose on the week by about $30 overall, making it two weeks in a row as shown in our first chart.
Friday, November 21, 2014
Swiss Gold Poll Likely Tighter Than Polls Suggest / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
By Ronan Manly: There is just over one week to go before the Swiss gold initiative referendum on Sunday 30 November. The release of the latest opinion poll earlier this week shows a strengthening of opposition to the initiative at the expense of the yes camp, with the level of undecided voters still a significant component of the equation. Taking the ‘maybes’ into account, there are still, according to the latest poll, 37% of voters who are not definitely yes or definitely no at this stage.
Friday, November 21, 2014
Gold's Volatility and Other Things to Watch / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold's reversal from $1130 to $1200 combined with sharp rebounds in the gold miners has given precious metals bulls some hope that the bottom may be in. A few weeks ago we noted that the sector was extremely oversold and a snapback rally could begin. Gold has been the tell for the bear market and a real bull market throughout the precious metals complex may not begin until Gold's bear has ended. In this editorial we dig deeper into some things to watch as they pertain to Gold.
Friday, November 21, 2014
Gold Price Now What? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Aden_Forecast
Gold has been volatile in recent weeks. It broke down, then it bounced back up. So where does it currently stand?
Gold's timing will help us in identifying the lows and the steps upward towards a new bull market.
Chart 1 shows our favorite gold timing tool. As our older readers know, gold has had recurring cycles going back for years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 20, 2014
The Secret Advantage Gold/Silver Owners Have Over Everyone / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Submissions
Guy Christopher writes: A lot of folks took advantage of recently falling gold and silver prices to beef up their precious metals holdings.
Those adding to their portfolios understood the old adage of buying low and selling high. Unfortunately, others wait until dollar values of gold and silver have zoomed before deciding to convert their paper money.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Iran Nuclear Negotiations, OPEC Meeting Loom For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
As November draws to a close, there are two major events that could profoundly change the oil markets.
With the clock ticking, the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5 plus 1) are negotiating down to the wire with Iran over its nuclear program. The two sides have made substantial progress, but some difficult issues remain unresolved ahead of the November 24 deadline.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Gold Manipulation - Efficient Markets Driven By Symmetrically Available Information - Algorithic! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
"What a piece of work is a man, how noble in reason, how
infinite in faculties, in form and moving how express and
admirable, in action how like an angel, in apprehension how like
a god! the beauty of the world, the paragon of animals." - William Shakespeare, Hamlet
Read full article... Read full article...