Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, December 02, 2014
Gold, What Does the End of QE3 Really Mean? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
So it finally happened. The Federal Reserve ended its Quantitative Easing program on October 29, 2014 due to concerns that keeping QE for so long could fuel excessive risk-taking by investors. The U.S. dollar continued to conquer new heights, while gold did not welcome this central bank action. Its price fell in November to $1,142, a four-year low. This is not surprising given the fact that as we wrote (in the last Market Overview), the condition of the U.S. dollar is one of the most important drivers of gold prices.
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Tuesday, December 02, 2014
Australian Gold Sector Are We There Yet? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Neil_Charnock
The Australian gold sector index (XGD) topped during the week of 15th April 2011 at 8498.9. The first fact to consider from this article is that this occurred nearly 5 months ahead of the peak in gold when the king of metals had just reached the high US$1400. As you well know gold went on to rise to US$1920.8 approximately $430 higher than when the gold stocks peaked. To make the same point again this index reached a previous top at 8448.4 in the week of the 12th November 2010 when gold closed at US$1368.5. That was approximately 10 months ahead of the top in gold. This is a critical point to understand as we grind through the remainder of this painful correction in gold.
Tuesday, December 02, 2014
On the Swiss Gold Referendum / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
The Swiss gold initiative has come and gone. It can be summarized as much ado about nothing. Even if it had passed, the initiative would have had no real impact on the Swiss National Bank’s ability to print money or conduct monetary policy.
The central bank is currently defending a 1.2 Swiss franc to the euro floor. By pegging its currency, the Swiss central bank has basically opted to follow its neighbor’s excessively easy monetary policy. To keep the peg, the central bank has been purchasing euros by printing Swiss francs. The central bank then returns the euros to the Euro money supply by purchasing European government bonds. It could have just as easily used those euros to buy dollars for gold. In either case, the euros or dollars are returned to the market, and therefore the Swiss action does not influence the respective Euro or US money supplies. We must remember that exchange rates are determined by differences in monetary growth rates and anticipation of what those differences will be in the future.
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Tuesday, December 02, 2014
Gold and Silver Bears Shocked By Unusual Intra-Day Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
"Through the mills of God grind slowly, yet they grind exceeding small;
With patience He stands waiting, with exactness He grinds all."- Baron Friedrich von Logau, Sinngedichte
As you know the Swiss gold referendum was defeated this Sunday, along with all the other initiatives issues like tax reform and immigration.
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Tuesday, December 02, 2014
Huge Oil, Gold Silver Price Reversals; Is the Bottom In? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Mike_Shedlock
Gold, silver, and oil put in pretty spectacular reversals today from Friday Noon. Let's take a look.
Tuesday, December 02, 2014
The Inside Story on OPEC’s Oil Price War / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: My meetings here in Dubai are at the Burj Al Arab, the fabled “seven-star hotel” built like a huge ship’s sail on its own man-made island.
At center stage are some of the region’s top oil policy makers, including a rather impressive forty-one year old, His Excellency Suhali Mohamed Faraj Al-Mazrouei.
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Monday, December 01, 2014
Gold - Bloomberg TV Blows It Big Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
Sometimes you just have to chuckle. I had been out all morning picking up some visiting in-laws in the City. When I came home I flipped on the news, and turned on the equipment in my home office.
The mid-day news highlight on Bloomberg TV at about fifteen minutes after noon today was to say that gold was down sharply, over fifty dollars, because of the Swiss gold referendum vote.
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Monday, December 01, 2014
2015 Will See the Renewal of Gold's Secular Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: The_Gold_Report
Past performance does not guarantee future performance, as they say, but Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, editor and publisher of The Daily Gold Premium, is persuaded that the bottom in gold is no more than a couple of months away. And after that, look out. In this interview with The Gold Report, Roy-Byrne says that his study of gold's history explains why gold could retest $1,900 per ounce by the end of 2016 before going parabolic.
The Gold Report: After falling to $1,137 per ounce ($1,137/oz), gold has rallied to $1,200/oz. Has the fabled bottom finally been reached, or will we see one final selloff?
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Monday, December 01, 2014
Swiss Gold No - Repatriation, Demand from Russia, India and China More Important / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Ronan Manly writes:
Switzerland’s ‘Save our Swiss Gold’ referendum was convincingly rejected yesterday by the Swiss electorate following an aggressive anti-gold campaign in recent weeks that had been closely watched both in Switzerland and abroad.
Unusually, it involved the Swiss National Bank (SNB) very actively, and ultimately successfully, trying to convince the electorate along with the main political parties to return a ‘no’ vote.
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Monday, December 01, 2014
U.S. Shale Oil is the New Swing-Producer: Output Forecast to 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Very Happy / Commodities / Fracking
By: Andrew_Butter
According to Reuters and CNN...and others, “OPEC” has declared war on shale-oil drillers in America.
http://www.reuters.com...
That’s a serious accusation. In the not too distant past whole countries were bombed back into the Stone Ages for lesser transgressions!! Saudi Arabia was the only OPEC member to forcefully advocate not cutting back, so for “OPEC” read “The Saudi’s”. Bomb-Bomb-Bomb aside, it’s hard not to wonder whether or not a collective schizophrenia has descended on the talking-heads....“Saudi’s pumping more so America pays less...that’s terrible news, because shale oil will suffer**!!”....”Saudi’s pumping less...that’s terrible news, because hard-working -taxpayers will pay more for gasoline, and we will have to borrow more money from foreigners**!!” Can’t win.
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Monday, December 01, 2014
The Swiss Gold Referendum Was Just a Storm in a Teacup / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Bob_Kirtley
Results for Swiss gold referendum were released today, ending weeks of enthusiastic bulls calling for gold to rally to new highs on a “yes” vote and countless articles speculating about the impact of the result. The Swiss people voted overwhelmingly against the policy of that would have caused the Swiss National Bank to significantly increase their gold reserves. However, the excitement and the speculation around the potential impact of the result represents a misunderstanding of the event and indeed, the gold market as a whole.
Monday, December 01, 2014
If Crude Oil Price Can Drop 40%, What’s Gold Going To Do? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Amusing, that Swiss vote today. Or rather, the three votes. I can’t oversee why the first one, the hike in taxes for foreigners, was rejected. It would seem reasonable that everyone living in a country pays a similar amounts in taxes, but perhaps there’s another angle to the topic that I haven’t read about.
The second vote, the one on immigration limits, initiated by an eco group, looks easier to understand. In a country smack in the middle of continental Europe, which has 3 official languages and where 25% of the population are foreigners, forcing the government to limit immigration by 80% from one day to the next, from 80,000 to 16,000 people, seems to be quite simply too steep a demand.
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Sunday, November 30, 2014
Oil Price Crash, Gold Price Bottom Trend Forecast 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Toby_Connor
It’s time to do a follow-up to my last Golden Bottom article. We are coming down to the wire and the action on Monday after the Swiss referendum should tell us whether gold has already formed a final bear market low, or whether we have one more drop in this intermediate cycle to the $1050 level before the final bottom.
If the vote is a yes then I suspect gold will reverse all of Friday’s losses and immediately head back up confirming that we got the final bear market bottom in early November.
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Sunday, November 30, 2014
Swiss Gold Vote Result - Anti-Gold Propaganda Prevails! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldSilverWorlds
This morning the final votes were cast on the Swiss Gold Initiative (most votes were submitted via post). As we speak the final votes are still being counted however we already know: The initiative has been rejected!
- The majority of votes of most individual cantons (some cantons’ votes are yet to be released) were against the initiative. As Switzerland has a federalist structure, this by itself already means that the initiative has been rejected.
- Public votes are still not final, but indications show that about 25% of the population voted for the initiative.
Sunday, November 30, 2014
Oil Charts - Black Friday in The Energy Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight I would like to update a few oil charts I posted several weeks ago when oil was breaking out of that multi year five point triangle reversal pattern.
Editor's Note: See the links below to follow the evolution of this move in the Friday Night Energy Series.
Before we look at the bigger picture I want to show you a short term daily chart that had an interesting day. There are several things I like to look at when I see a stock that looks like it's breaking out. First, it's nice to see an increase in volume but sometimes it happens a day or to later. Secondly, it's always nice to see a gap where you were expecting a breakout. That gives you a little more confidence when your anticipating a breakout and it happens right where it should. The third thing I like to look for is a long bar that covers a lot of ground. It tells us that, in oils case, there were no more bulls left to defend the support zone, so they retreat en mass looking for the next support zone to try and defend. In a bear market all the bulls can do is put up some minor support as the big trend is down and they'll be overrun again in due time by the bears. You can clearly see this on the short term daily chart for oil below.
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Sunday, November 30, 2014
Switzerland Leads In Gold Sales Among Central Banks Since 1993 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
Although they are still among the top ten in total gold holdings, Switzerland has been one of the largest sellers of gold among official entities since 1993.
It is no surprise then that the people of Switzerland have taken to a referendum to provide their opinions on this to the Swiss National Bank.
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Sunday, November 30, 2014
Fed Earmarked Gold Holdings Continued to Decline In October / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
Nemo debet esse judex in propria causa.
Earmarked gold at the Federal Reserve dropped 42 tonnes for the month of October as foreign countries repatriate their gold.
Despite these declines the Fed's earmarked holdings are quite substantial to say the least.
One has to wonder why the German people are not able to get back their gold for seven years.
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Saturday, November 29, 2014
Gold And Silver For Elites, All The World’s A Stage, Including China And Russia / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
While the Shakespearean reference, from As You Like It, compares the world to the seven
ages of man, it can also be applied to the way in which the Rothschild formula for gaining
control of a nation’s money supply ultimately leads to that nation’s total subjugation to the
elites. It is the elite rent seeking who control the world, and that will not change in the
lifetime of anyone reading this, perhaps even for several successive generations to follow.
“Rent seeking” is defined as those who spend wealth on influencing a nation’s government in order to increase one’s wealth without creating new wealth. Think of it more as a transfer of resources from any faction in favor of gaining control of those resources to those who have the power to influence. It is an inherently unfair redistribution mostly accomplished by manipulating disadvantageous competition, abetted by those who are in a position to bring about such change. Rent seeking through lobbying efforts is an easy example. The fascist corporate model in the US today, like Monsanto and its mandated use of GMOs is another, almost always at the expense of everyone else.
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Saturday, November 29, 2014
Crude Oil Price Crash - What to Expect Next / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Looking back to 2007 (seven years ago) we have seen the price of crude oil perform incredible price swings. No matter the time frame in which we observe price when an extreme price spike takes place due to news/event, statistics show that half if not all the event driven price spike will eventually be negated in the future.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
OPEC Presents QE4 and Deflation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Thinking plummeting oil prices are good for the economy is a mistake. They instead, as I said only yesterday in The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy, point out how bad the global economy is doing. QE has been able to inflate stock prices way beyond anything remotely looking fundamental, but energy prices have now deflated instead of stocks. Something had to give at some point. Turns out, central banks weren’t able to inflate oil prices on top of everything else. Stocks and bonds are much easier to artificially inflate than commodities are.