Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Gold Rises After Unusual Russian Central Bank Gold Buying Announcement / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Russia’s central bank bought about 150 metric tons of the metal this year, announced Governor Elvira Nabiullina yesterday. The pronouncement immediately created buying in the market, prompting gold to rise to a two week high at $1,200 an ounce.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Why Gold and U.S. Dollar Do Not Always Move Inversely? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Arkadiusz Sieron writes: The strength (or weakness) in the U.S. dollar is one of the most important drivers of price of gold. However, this is not always true and there are times when they rise or fall simultaneously. The positive correlation between U.S. dollar and gold occurred, for instance, from May through December 1993, from May until November 2005, and at the turn of the 2008 and 2009.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Gold & Silver Timing and Flexibility is the Key to a Successful Trade / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Bob_Kirtley
Background
Gold has not glistened since the summer of 2011 when a substantial rally took it to an all-time record price of $1900/oz.
Since then however it has been a one way trek south punctuated by an occasional weak rally or head fake. Gold’s inability to sustain a meaningful move to higher ground has been damaging to any portfolio that has acquired gold, silver or the associated mining stocks over the last 3 years or so. Gold’s bull market lasted for 10 years from 2001 to 2011 before its rally came to an end. One can be forgiven for expecting such a rally to continue indefinitely as the same data which supported the precious metals surge were more or less still in place. Gold’s fall from grace can be attributed to many reasons including the attraction of a roaring stock market, resurgence of the US dollar, cost of storage, poor sentiment, etc. Depending on the time that one entered this market determines ones current p/l position. Those who purchased gold, silver and the producers in the early years of this bull market will be sitting on handsome profits, assuming they had a buy and hold strategy. For those who are relatively new to this sector of the market it has been a roller coaster of a ride with values being in a progressive state of deterioration.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Forget About Crude Oil Price Testing 2009 Low / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Austin_Galt
Oil has hit a slick recently with price sliding over 30% in the last five months. There are now calls for price to potentially test the 2009 lows. While I think this is a bit extreme, let’s investigate the charts to see what the evidence there suggests.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
How to Profit From Oversold Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: Investment_U
Christopher Rowe writes: There's a seismic macroeconomic shift going on right now. It's happening on a global scale, and it will shake up investment portfolios everywhere in the world.
Mistakes will be made, but fortunes will be made, too.
The price of oil is at a four-year low, and investors are asking these questions:
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Tuesday, November 18, 2014
ECB Buy Gold Bullion? Japan's Monetary Policy Dubbed "Ponzi Scheme" / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Concerns about deflation, recession and a return to the Eurozone debt crisis, may see the ECB follow Japan and print money to buy assets including shares, exchange traded funds and physical gold.
Counter intuitively, gold prices fell on the quite bullish news. In marked contrast to the sharp falls gold saw on the mere rumour of small Cyprus selling their miniscule gold reserves. Such odd trading leads to continuing concerns that the precious metals markets are still being manipulated.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Gold, Silver, Crude and S&P Ending Wedge Patterns / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: DeviantInvestor
Gold and silver prices have been trading in declining wedge patterns since 2011. Crude has traded in a flat to down wedge pattern for five years, and the S&P has been moving inexorably higher since early 2009 in a contracting wedge.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
GOLDZILLA / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Gary_Tanashian
“History shows again and again how nature points out the folly of man” –Blue Oyster Cult, Godzilla
I would have written off the gold sector long ago in its ongoing bear market had I thought for one moment that gold’s utility as insurance against the acts of monetary madmen/women in high places had been compromised in any way. On the contrary, the monetary metal is simply having its price marked down in a bear market while its value, especially given its current price and all that has gone on in the financial system over the last 3 years remains just fine.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Has the Gold Bear Trap Been Set / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Bob_Loukas
We finally have some movement within the gold complex, and for a welcomed change, it’s to the upside. It has been dicey lately, as the back and forth daily swings have been unnerving. It’s not common within bear markets to see an asset form a Cycle Low and then just take off to the upside. This is why anyone trading the precious metals sector needs to understand that the Long traders carry with them a lot of anxiety. Past experiences have them guarded, which is why we see these frequent quick intra-day reversals…they’re spooked far too easily.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Are Crude Oil's Bears Over? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a stop-loss at $72.78 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil hit a fresh four-year low on Friday, the commodity rebounded sharply as upbeat U.S. data and speculations that OPEC countries may consider cutting output supported the price. As a result, light crude closed the day above $75 and invalidated the breakdown below important support lines. Is it enough to trigger a trend reversal?
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Monday, November 17, 2014
Gold Price and Miners Soar on Huge Volume / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Gold moved substantially higher on Friday and the volume was huge. The session was both significant and bullish, but the question remains if such show of strength can be a start of the next big move. As we promised in Friday's second alert, we analyzed the situation thoroughly over the weekend and are reporting to you today.
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Monday, November 17, 2014
Gold Standard - We Are Never Going Back / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
It has always fascinated me to hear the mainstream's interpretation of the gold standard. The great majority - including many who are part and parcel to the financial elite - elicit a knee-jerk response to its mere utterance.
Many see the return to the most recent Bretton-Woods-based "imposed standard", not one based on market value. Furthermore, the knee-jerk is detached from the main reasons why they "should" oppose.
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Monday, November 17, 2014
Gold Price Golden Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Toby_Connor
Today I’m going to follow up on my last article “Are commodities at a major turning point”.
If commodities and gold are ready to reverse then the first thing that has to happen is the dollar needs to form a top. I think that may have occurred on November 7th when the last employment report was released. Notice how the dollar formed a key reversal on that day, that was retested Friday and failed, forming a bearish engulfing candlestick.
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Sunday, November 16, 2014
Gold Dragons Grand Strategy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Richard_Mills
Zheng Bijian, a leading Chinese intellectual and reformer said: "The most important strategic choice the Chinese made was to embrace globalization."
China has made a new most important strategic choice - Asian Regionalization.
Read full article... Read full article..."In the past few years, both Chinese and foreign analysts began to reach the conclusion that China has developed a fairly consistent and coherent grand strategy... Because economic development is taken as the only way for tackling all the pressing challenges that China is facing and will face, China's grand strategy must serve the central purpose of development. Therefore, the central objective of China's Grand Strategy in the past two decades (which may well last to 2050) can be captured in just one sentence: to secure and shape a conducive environment (security, economic, and political) so that China can concentrate on its development (economic, social, and political)." ~ Tang Shiping and Zhang Yunling, China's Regional Strategy
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Whatever Happened To $100 Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
The Paradigm Shift
Business news provider Bloomberg, November 14, cited a Tass interview in which Vladimir Putin says that Russia is prepared for "catastrophic falls" of world oil prices and export revenues – on a day when Nymex oil market players and manipultors engineered a classic "sucker's rally" with a one-day 2.5% jump in Brent and WTI prices! Putin is unlikely to be fooled by that rally and Russia, like China has been making very large gold purchases as an insurance policy on likely or probable major currency upheavals, in Russia's case including intensified attacks in the present "war on the ruble" to punish its support for rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Gold and Silver 2015 Trend Forecasts, Prices to Go BOOM / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Austin_Galt
“Finally!” in English, “Por fin!” in Spanish and “About bloody time!!” in Australian. The belated rally in gold and silver finally got underway when it was least expected. The contrarian wins again!
The final bear market rally in gold and silver kicked off after a fake out move lower and should end with a fake out move higher. That’s the way I see it anyway. Of course the permabulls will be back out in force again calling the next great bull market now in progress and this rally should terminate when those calls reach fever pitch.
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Sunday, November 16, 2014
IEA Says Oil Supplies May Not Keep Up With Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Despite what appears to be a saturated oil market in 2014, oil producers around the world will struggle to meet rising demand over the next few decades.
In its latest annual World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the current period of oil abundance may be fleeting, and in fact, without heroic levels of production increases, oil markets will grow dangerously tight in the coming years.
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Saturday, November 15, 2014
Gold And Silver – A Change In Suppressed Down Trend? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
Until there is a clear break of elite’s central banking dominance over the gold and silver
markets, there will be no dramatic recovery reflective of where the true price for both
metals should be. Whether it is $5,000 or $10,000 for gold or $100 or $200 for silver
[the ounce], the current distorted pricing, as dictated by the paper derivative market and
not actual physical metal, will prevail demonstrating the power the elites exert at will.
The probability of the elites being “all in” has not even reached the stretching point, yet, although it may be getting there. All that remains, really, is to wait and let events take the unnatural course they have been on for several decades. The undoing of too many decades of gold/silver manipulation/suppression will not be accomplished in a single year, as it has not been over the past few years, and there is no way of knowing the time factor for change in the year[s] ahead.
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Saturday, November 15, 2014
Gold Market Capitulation? Not Likely / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_J_Kosares
If you’re waiting for capitulation in the gold market, don’t hold your breath – An argument for why the bottom in gold will come with a whimper, not a bang and why the mainstream media might be looking for capitulation in the wrong place.
Read full article... Read full article...ca·pit·u·la·tion noun \kə-ˌpi-chə-ˈlā-shən\
When investors give up any previous gains in stock price by selling equities in an effort to get out of the market and into less risky investments. True capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines. It usually is indicated by panic selling.
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Still Lower Prices Ahead For Crude Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sy_Harding
Crude oil prices, at a four-year low, have plunged 30% in the past six months, and it looks like they are destined to fall further.
In its monthly report, released Friday, the International Energy Agency said, “Our forecasts indicate that barring any new supply disruptions, downward price pressure could build further through the first half of 2015.”
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