Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, November 28, 2014
Dramatic Increase in Gold Flows into China / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
David Smith writes: For over two thousand years, China practiced what came to be known as the “tributary system,” reflecting the view that it alone was the center of the civilized world. All who wished to do business with the Chinese were considered tributary states. Rulers and travelers from other lands had to follow certain procedures, including gift giving, in order to associate or do business with them.
When Japan ignored this policy, it brought about two invasion attempts by the Mongols under Kublai Khan.
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Friday, November 28, 2014
Netherlands, Germany Have Euro Disaster Plan - Possible Return to Guilder and Mark / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The Dutch and German governments were preparing emergency plans for a return to their national currencies at the height of the euro crisis it has emerged. These plans remain in place.
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Friday, November 28, 2014
Gold Waiting for Godot / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Alternatively, watching paint dry. That’s how it has felt this week with gold’s volatility slowing to a crawl ahead of Thanksgiving yesterday and the Swiss gold referendum on Monday. However, Open Interest[i] on Comex[ii], has suddenly collapsed for both gold and silver, indicating something interesting is going on.
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Friday, November 28, 2014
Russia’s Gold Monetary Solution / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The hypothesis that follows, if carried through, is certain to have a significant effect on gold and the relationship between gold and all government-issued currencies. The successful remonetisation of gold by a major power such as Russia would draw attention to the fault-lines between fiat currencies issued by governments unable or unwilling to do the same and those that can follow in due course. It would be a schism in the world’s dollar-based monetary order.
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Friday, November 28, 2014
Gold and Silver Price Discovery - When the Wrong Men Use the Right Means / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
I’m not a real farmer. But I suffer the lessons and I do my best when I talk with friends, neighbors, and families about the unintended benefits of ‘growing your own’…
..There is universal agreement about the problem of not really knowing where ‘the food’ comes from.
That may be at the core but is the basis for another fiasco of ignorance. The basic need for fair value underlies civil society; it is part and parcel to understanding where the food comes from.
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Thursday, November 27, 2014
Gold Price Would Soar on Possible Swiss Yes Vote / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
There are just 3 days left until the“Save Our Swiss Gold” referendum this Sunday. On November 30, voters in Switzerland will head to the polls to decide whether the Swiss National Bank (SNB) should back the Swiss franc with gold by increasing its gold holdings to 20% - up from current levels of 7%.
The conservative Swiss People's party proposed the initiative, called "Save Our Swiss Gold", with the intention of boosting the security and financial and monetary independence of Switzerland in these times of financial uncertainty. They believe that a 20% gold holding will protect the Swiss people from currency debasement, currency devaluation and an international monetary crisis.
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Thursday, November 27, 2014
Crude Oil Asset Bubble Trouble / Commodities / Crude Oil
Nothing Ikonic about the Gold / Oil Ratio
Assuming for discussion that a 15-to-1 ratio between the price of I Troy ounce of gold and 1 barrel of oil is a long-term average or “ikonic ratio”, ( http://www.zealllc.com/2005/gorex2.htm) this would apply for $2 oil and $30 gold as much as $120 oil and $1800 gold. But the asset bubbles built around oil and gold would be rather different, each time. Also, coming down and off highs for the gold price, or for the oil price, there would be major bloodshed among the related overpriced and now-irrational asset values, but in the case of oil assets this will include national budgets, national FX values and even global economic growth. Deflating an oil asset bubble has a lot more ramifying impacts than coming down from a high for gold.
Thursday, November 27, 2014
Silver Bear Still Looms Despte 10% Price Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Rallying 10% from recent lows silver is nearing resistance
Per our last update, the prospect for some sort of pivotal turn-date occurring near Thanksgiving appears to be setting up as a plausible short-term pivot high rather than a long-term secular low. As I suggested weeks ago, this rally came as no surprise.
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
A Short Tale About the Grand Manipulation of Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Happy Thanksgiving from Dubai.
I’ll have much more to tell you about my meetings in Paris, Frankfurt, and here on the Persian Gulf coast next week.
But today I’d like to fill you in on an interesting wrinkle I’ve uncovered dealing with the ongoing saga of why oil prices are so low.
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
China Secret Gold Buying ... How Could It Happen? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By Grant Williams
“How could it happen, Grandad?”
The old man’s eyes misted over as he looked down at his grandson, who sat at his feet, his young eyes alive with questions as he turned the heavy gold bar over in his hands.
”I’ve told you the story too many times to count,” said the man, half-pleading, but knowing full-well he’d soon be deep into the umpteenth retelling of a story he’d lived through once in reality and a thousand times more through the eager questioning of the young man now tugging at his trouser leg. “Why don’t I tell you the story of how I met your Grandma instead?”
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Gold and Silver Refreshing Resilience / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold and silver held their prices well today with silver actually gaining some ground. Not bad for the day after a Comex option expiration.
This Friday the December contract becomes active on first notice, so we might see some changes in open interest.
Not much to report in the delivery category, but the Comex warehouse show the continued drip, drip of bullion out of their domains.
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Nuclear Energy Returns to Japan, Forces Uranium to Step Up Its Game / Commodities / Nuclear Power
A funny thing happened on the way to a nuclear-free world — Japan realized what a stupid idea that was.
You will probably recall that in the wake of the earthquake/tsunami/Fukushima nuclear disaster Japan shuttered its 50 nuclear power plants, which were supplying between 30% and 40% of the island-nation’s electricity needs. For the first time in more than three decades, Japan was totally dependent on non-nuclear fuels. The country became a poster-child for a nuclear-free future, and countries including Germany, Italy, Sweden and others followed suit, announcing they, too, would phase-out nuclear energy.
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Gold Price Spikes to $1,467.50/oz on Computer Glitch? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold spiked higher in many price feeds overnight and was $270 higher or more than 22% higher to $1,467.50/oz at one stage in what appears to have been some form of computer glitch.
There was speculation that the price spike which came while the COMEX was closed for 30 minutes was due to a series of charting errors or misprints, a bad price feed or a computer glitch. Another example of how technology is a great enabler but can also be a great disabler.
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Gold - So Bad It's Good: Surviving 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
As we approach Thanksgiving in the States, Streetwise Reports reached out to some of our most popular experts for perspective on the natural resource market during this volatile time. While some thought 2014 was so bad it was good—for contrarian investors—others will be all too happy to see the year in the rearview mirror.
Streewise Reports: What is the 2014 development for which you are most grateful?
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Follow The Sand To The Real Fracking Boom / Commodities / Fracking
When it takes up to four million pounds of sand to frack a single well, it's no wonder that demand is outpacing supply and frack sand producers are becoming the biggest behind-the-scenes beneficiaries of the American oil and gas boom.
Demand is exploding for "frac sand"--a durable, high-purity quartz sand used to help produce petroleum fluids and prop up man-made fractures in shale rock formations through which oil and gas flows--turning this segment into the top driver of value in the shale revolution.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Swiss Gold Referendum A Golden Opportunity for Switzerland / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The referendum on the Swiss Gold Initiative will take place on November 30.1 The Initiative demands the following: (1) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) shall be prohibited from selling any of its gold reserves; (2) the SNB’s gold reserves must be stored in Switzerland; and (3) the SNB must keep at least 20 percent of its assets in gold (i.e., the “20-percent rule”).
The balance sheet of the SNB currently amounts to 522.3bn CHF (Swiss francs), with its gold holdings and claims from gold transactions amounting to 39.4bn CHF. The share of gold of the SNB’s assets is therefore about 7.5 percent — substantially lower than what the Initiative calls for.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Silver: What COT Analysis Tells Us / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Each week the CFTC publishes a Commitments of Traders Report (COT) in which “non-commercial” and “commercial” long and short futures positions are reported. Many people have expressed doubts as to the validity, accuracy and consistency of the data. However, my experience is that the data is mostly relevant, accurate, and useful in the long term, but not necessarily important each week.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
U.S. Dollar Near Top? Gold and Silver Trading, Platinum Breakout Invalidation / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Yesterday was a day when the precious metals market took a breather, but it's not true that nothing changed at all. Friday's breakout in platinum was invalidated. Is this a "short again" signal?
In short, not really, because this signal - even though it's bearish - is not enough to make the situation very bearish on its own.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Gold Price Forecast 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
Greetings,
I just read a special report on a major market development you should be aware of, right now ......
A potentially BIG near- to intermediate-term opportunity in GOLD, a market no one else wants to talk about.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
The Swiss Referendum On Gold: What’s Missing From The Debate / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
This article is written by Eric Schreiber, independent asset manager, former head of commodities UBP, former head of precious metals Credit Suisse Zurich. All views expressed are his and may not reflect those of his former employers.
The Swiss will vote on a referendum on November 30th that would ban the Swiss National Bank (SNB) from selling current and future gold reserves, repatriate foreign stored gold holdings to Switzerland, and mandate that gold must comprise a minimum of 20% of central bank assets. The SNB does not usually comment on political referendums. However, in this case it has done so quite vocally.
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