Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Gold And U.S. Dollar, Buffett, Trump, – Nothing Has Changed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Kelsey_Williams

“Even in the U.S., where the wish for a stable currency is strong, the dollar has fallen a staggering 86% in value since 1965, when I took over management of Berkshire…” — Warren Buffett Feb2012

During that same period (1965 – 2012) the price of gold increased from $35.00 per ounce to more than $1800.00 per ounce – a whopping 5000%.  Seven years ago this month (August 2011), the price of gold peaked at $1879.00 per ounce, and has since fallen 30% to approximately $1200.00 per ounce currently. That drop in price is the inverse reflection of the U.S dollar’s temporary strength and stability, which is up by 30%. You can see that on the chart GOLD PRICES AND US DOLLAR CORRELATION below…

Sunday, August 26, 2018

Gold has Reversed. Will the Bounce Continue? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Gold has been in a very strong downtrend until this past week. But thanks to this week’s bounce, gold has snapped its 6 week loss streak.

Sunday, August 26, 2018

Trade Wars, the Dollar and Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Rob McEwen, chairman and chief owner of McEwen Mining and former CEO of Goldcorp, speaks to Streetwise Reports about the impact of trade wars on the dollar and precious metals, where he sees the growth in precious metals equities, and how he plans to qualify McEwen Mining for the S&P 500.

The Gold Report: Prices of some commodities have been falling. What are your thoughts on the current commodities market?

Rob McEwen: The commodities market has been adversely impacted by the strong dollar and the discussion of a trade war possibility, which may already be happening. With the economies of America, Europe and Asia picking up, most investors are asking, why buy gold or silver? The dollar is the key. When it starts dropping, we will see the price of gold, silver and all commodities improve.

Saturday, August 25, 2018

Golds Wyckoff Price Road Map / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: readtheticker

Applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic. (A wealth of knowledge on this subject is disclosed via the RTT Plus service found at readtheticker.com)

Question: Is there evidence to suggest a accumulation within gold.

First, we must understand gold is controlled large positions of : futures longs, futures shorts, futures calls buy and sell, futures puts buy and sells. Each of these will be large and must be positioned before a powerful move higher or lower can occur.

1) The sharp sell off during 2013/14/15 allowed the shorts to profit, short covering occurred late 2015/16/17. The short trade from the 2011 high is done! This is good news for bulls as these positions are mostly cleared.

Friday, August 24, 2018

Gold Junior Stocks Q2 2018 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The junior gold miners’ stocks have been thrashed in August, plummeting to brutal multi-year lows.  Such carnage naturally left sentiment far more bearish than usual in this forsaken contrarian sector.  But these extremely-battered gold-stock prices certainly aren’t justified fundamentally.  Junior gold miners’ collective results from their just-completed Q2’18 earnings season prove their stock prices need to mean revert way higher.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

Friday, August 24, 2018

A Saudi-Iran Oil War Could Break Up OPEC / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

When OPEC and Russia shook on increasing crude oil production by a million barrels daily to stop the oil price climb that had begun getting uncomfortable for consumers from Asia to the United States, there was no sign of what was to come just two months later: slowing demand in Asia, ample supply, and a brewing price war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Gold Bullion Bank Charades and the Importance of Long-Term Thinking / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Recently, I gave an inside look into the competitive and honest market in which precious metals dealers operate. It’s a market based on supply and demand for actual physical metal in the form of coins, bars, or rounds.

However, the futures market – where global spot silver and gold prices are set – is another story.

The supply and demand for actual physical bars is pretty much irrelevant when exchanging paper contracts.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Is The 50-year Gold Mining Bear Market Coming To An End? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

Gold stocks is in a 50-year bear market when measured in gold. This (very) roughly means that on average, it has been more economical to buy gold rather than to mine it.

Interestingly, South African gold mining production peaked two years after, in 1970, as if to confirm that mining was getting rather uneconomical.

There are a peculiar set of reasons why gold mining was so uneconomical, and this I address in my other publications.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Gold Stocks Crash! Now What? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week GDX and GDXJ were down almost 12% at their lows on Thursday. Since then, they’ve recovered but only a tiny fraction of recent losses.

The crash did result in the miners reaching an extreme oversold condition while trading around long-term support at their December 2016 lows. It was the perfect setup for shorts to cover. That combination often results in at least a relief rally.

While a rally is underway, where it goes from here remains to be seen.

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Is Gold Price On Verge Of A Bottom, See For Yourself / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent downward price swing in Gold has kept Goldbugs frothing at what they believe is a very unusual and unexplained price function in the face of so much uncertainty throughout the globe.  With Turkey, Russia, China and many others experiencing massive economic and currency crisis events, Gold has actually been creeping lower as the US Dollar strengthens.  It is almost like a “Twilight Zone” episode for Gold Bulls.

The setup for a gold rally has been in place for over a decade.  Much like in 2006 through 2008, the current price and volatility of Gold is simply mundane.  For the past two years, Gold has rotated between $1190 and $1360 – within a $180 range.  Certainly, Gold traders were able to find some profits within this range, but no breakout trends have been established since early 2016 when the price of Gold changed from Bearish to Bullish and a 31% rally took place driving prices $328.80 higher from the lows.

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Gold COT Data at Extreme Levels, which suggests Recovery Should Start Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

In his weekly precious metals market update, technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Just Take The Metals Out Back And Shoot Them! / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Avi_Gilburt

So, does my title appropriately capture the sentiment about metals right now?

While the title may seem a bit extreme to some of you, many are leaving the metals for dead, and others have already written their obituaries.

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Historical Repetition in Gold and Silver Precious Metals Arena / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger muses on the potential for a historical reprise of market events of 2015-2016, as well as on how algobots and bankers affect the precious metals markets.

History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. – Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain)

I decided that before I sat down to write the weekly recap and outlook for the gold and silver markets that I would go to a few of the great commentary sites such as Streetwise, 321Gold, Goldseek and Gold-Eagle and read what the other "experts" are saying about the precious metals markets before I attack the keyboard. Earlier in the week, I had been working on a Western Uranium Corp. story and was astounded how stress-free it was writing about an energy deal as opposed to a sound money deal. After perusing perhaps two hundred paragraphs from some pretty smart guys and gals, it occurred to me that we are all looking at the same data and the same charts and reading the same headlines in an effort to sound original in our assessment of the metals

Monday, August 20, 2018

Why Silver Could Replace The US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver used to be a significant part of the monetary base in many countries. You could find it as part of monetary reserves together with gold, as well as coinage in circulation.

Over the years that silver was demonetized (at least from the 1870s to roughly the 1960s), significant amounts of silver coins (official currency coins) were melted down and sold on the markets, together with silver bars (used as reserves). This brought us to today, where the amount of silver that is part of the monetary base is basically immaterial.

Monday, August 20, 2018

What the Copper and Gold Crash Means for Commodities and Stocks / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Troy_Bombardia

As you probably know, commodity prices have been falling significantly over the past few months on Trump’s trade war, which has caused the U.S. Dollar to rise.

This has some bearish investors afraid of a few things:

1. “Contagion” from commodities and emerging markets to the U.S. stock market
2. An economic slowdown, because commodity prices are “supposed to” reflect economic data. Conventional thinking states that falling commodity prices = falling demand, which signals a slowdown in the economy.

Saturday, August 18, 2018

Why Oil Prices Fell -- Stockpiles or Price Pattern? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

You be the judge...

Let's cut right to the chart below. The shaded triangle highlights the dramatic price action in crude oil prices on August 15, when crude plummeted 3% to its lowest level in over nine weeks.

Saturday, August 18, 2018

Why The Uranium Price Must Go Up / Commodities / Uranium

By: Richard_Mills

The Trump Administration is at it again. On July 18 the financial press got ahold of a story that said the next target of the Trump tariffs is likely to be the uranium/ nuclear energy sector. In what looks like a repeat of what happened with steel and aluminum, the White House said it would investigate whether uranium imports threaten national security, given how dependent the United States is on the nuclear fuel. If the sector is threatened - and why wouldn’t it be, where 90% of the uranium needed for American nuclear reactors comes from abroad - import tariffs would likely be imposed.

If that happens, it would hurt nuclear power plants, who are already struggling with low electricity prices and flat demand, Bloomberg noted in reporting the story.

Saturday, August 18, 2018

GDX Gold Mining Stocks Q2’18 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners’ stocks plummeted in brutal cascading selling this week as stops were run.  That shattered strong multi-year support, devastating sentiment among the handful of contrarians remaining in this forsaken sector.  With fear and despair extreme, it’s critical to take a deep breath and get grounded in the gold miners’ just-reported Q2’18 fundamentals.  They reveal if this surprise anomalous plunge was justified.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

The definitive list of major gold-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Its composition and performance are similar to the benchmark HUI gold-stock index.  GDX utterly dominates this sector, with no meaningful competition.  This week GDX’s net assets are 33.4x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!

Friday, August 17, 2018

What Gold Is Not / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

I was reading a post by Martin Armstrong called…

Gold and the Changing Fundamentals

…and in it he published a question from an email sent by a reader:

“Mr. Armstrong; You are obviously the person worth listening to when it comes to gold. Every fundamental these people have argued to support gold has proven completely false. Confusion in gold is really very high. You have to be really stupid at this point to listen to this nonsense. Can you express any opinion on gold?”

Friday, August 17, 2018

Is Now the Time to Buy Gold and Silver for a Short Term Bounce? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Gold and silver crashed yesterday, particularly silver.