Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, November 06, 2018

Positive Implications for Gold Miners if Crude Oil Breaks Down / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gary_Tanashian

It’s an over obsessed upon commodity, previously hyped for its (Hubbert’s) “peak” status by “experts” like T Boone Pickens and a whole clown show of promoters amplified by the media at the time.

Now WTI Crude Oil has reached a thick resistance zone (as managed in NFTRH for the last couple of years) and may be breaking down from a peak of a whole other kind. Here is the monthly chart we use.

Tuesday, November 06, 2018

Energy Markets Analysis FreePass / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Dear Investor,

While most traders have been watching the S&P, oil plunged 18% in October. In the process, crude broke below a key long-term trendline. You know what that means: It's an exciting potential opportunity.

That's why we've got an exciting free event starting Tuesday, Nov. 6. We call it our Energy FreePass event, where we unlock our trader-focused Energy Pro Service for 3 days. It's free for everyone.

Monday, November 05, 2018

Is the Gold Bull Back? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Peter_Degraaf

The Price of Gold appears to have bottomed, after declining since 2011. Here is a look at the weekly trend.

Monday, November 05, 2018

Gold Stocks Winter Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks suffered a rough late summer this year.  A rare forced capitulation walloped them to deep new lows, short-circuiting their usual autumn rally.  That’s left this sector anomalously low as the subsequent winter rally gets underway, gold stocks’ strongest seasonal surge of the year.  Starting from beaten-down levels after skipping the prior seasonal rally gives gold stocks exceptionally-bullish upside potential.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Monday, November 05, 2018

Will the US Mid-Term Elections Boost Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Democrats take control of the Congress and move Trump out of the White House. Sounds unbelievable? So what is probable and what is not? We invite you to read our today’s article about the upcoming US Mid-Term Elections and find out what are the likely consequences for the gold market.

Elections are approaching the US again. Two years after Donald Trump was elected as POTUS, American voters go to the polls again on November 6th for the mid-term elections. They will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of 100 Senators (as well as 36 state governors and many other local officers).

Monday, November 05, 2018

Gold Stocks are Not Close to Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It has been a rough year for gold stock investors.

Since Gold failed to break to the upside and the US Dollar bottomed, gold stocks have been in a strong downtrend. In September they hit two and a half year lows.

The oversold condition since then has been corrected but that rebound has been quite weak.

Evidence of that can be seen in the GDX advance decline (A/D) line (an important breadth indicator) which is showing a negative divergence and hit a new low on Wednesday.

Sunday, November 04, 2018

Gold Price Sets Up For A November 2018 Rally To Near $1300 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today’s upside price move in gold, already up over $18 (+1.5%), sets up a real potential for a move to near $1300 before the end of November.  We have been advising our followers that a strong potential for an upside move in the precious metals markets was likely and that a potential move to above $1300 was in the works prior to the end of 2018.

Saturday, November 03, 2018

Silver Bottoming Almost Complete / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

The current silver bottoming process is very similar to that of 2001 to 2003. It took a while for silver to establish a base which set up the bull rally in the following years to 2011.

The current bottoming has been longer, but it fits the profile of the early 2000 bottom in many respects. Below, is a chart which show the similarity:

Saturday, November 03, 2018

Palladium Technical Analysis Price Forecast / Commodities / Palladium

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This a technical look at the prospects for the Palladium price. This analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Friday, November 02, 2018

Trump Is Not Thrilled. But What about Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Trump is going to influence the US monetary policy or even to destroy the Fed’s independence. This is what many analysts say after the recent President’s comments. But are they right? We invite you to read our careful examination of Trump’s remarks about the Fed’s policy and find out what does it imply for the independence of the US central bank and the gold market.

Friday, November 02, 2018

Iron Lady of Europe Quits. Will Gold Replace Her? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

On Thursday, Mr. Draghi held a press conference. But the real thunderbolt hit on Monday, when Ms. Merkel announced that she would step down this year as a leader of her conservative party. Will that lighting make gold shine?

Draghi Says That We Shouldn’t Worry

Let’s start with the latest ECB’s monetary policy statement and the following Draghi’s press conference. In short, the ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged, which means that the European quantitative easing will end in December 2018. Given a somewhat weaker economic momentum in the euro area and the turmoil in Italy, the lack of any changes might seem to be rather hawkish. However, the expansion of the euro area economy continues, while inflation pressure is gradually rising. According to Draghi, we should not worry about the weaker momentum, as “it’s simply that we're having growth returning to potential after 2017, where it was clearly above potential.”

Friday, November 02, 2018

Win Big in Gold and Silver without “Buying the Bottom” / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Last month in this space, I penned an essay titled "Are Silver and Gold 'at the Flood'"?. A few weeks later, two other essays on another widely-read site discussed this topic from the same perspective and sourcing – a case of "great minds thinking along similar lines"?

Please take time to read or review that Money Metals Exchange Post of August 28.

I made the case of a misalignment in the precious metals' markets regarding price versus value which had become so pronounced that – in the near term – an explosive change in trend catching most participants by surprise was pretty much baked into the cake.

Sunday, October 28, 2018

Gold Stocks Will Benefit From Cyclical Change / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

As we have noted over the many years of the gold sector’s bear market, the gold miners will not rally for real until the real sector and macro fundamentals come into place. Those fundamentals do not include commonly promoted inflation, China/India “love” trades, a US dollar collapse or especially, war, pestilence or any other human misery than economic. The more astute gold bugs do not fall for that.

The gold miners are counter-cyclical as they leverage gold’s performance (whether positive or negative) relative to cyclical assets and markets. Hence the handy picture showing the key fundamental items with the 4 largest planets orbiting the golden sun being the most important.

Saturday, October 27, 2018

Gold Upleg Fuel Abounds / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold and its miners’ stocks have proven rare bastions of strength during recent weeks’ market carnage.  They are powering considerably higher while nearly everything else burns.  The markets’ major sentiment shift is accelerating a young gold upleg, which ought to grow much larger as speculators and investors continue returning.  Their collective gold positioning remains very low, making for abundant gold upleg fuel.

October’s outperformance by gold and gold stocks has been impressive.  As of Wednesday, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index had plunged 8.8% month-to-date.  That heavy selling was led by the market-darling mega tech stocks, pummeling the NASDAQ down 11.7% MTD!  Stock investors are starting to pay the piper for getting far too complacent in bubble-valued markets, the reckoning is underway.

Friday, October 26, 2018

Stronger Dollar is Bullish Catalyst for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The US$ index is breaking higher. Its trading at 96.41 as we pen this.

A daily close above 96.61 marks a new 52-week high and puts the dollar in position to eventually retest its bull market high at 104.

If this strength continues then the relief rally in precious metals could be over.

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Rome vs Brussels. Will That Battle Benefit Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Only one digit has changed. But it may have profound consequences, sending the country closer to junk status. Meanwhile, Rome and Brussels clash over budget plan. Will that duel benefit or harm the yellow metal?

Only One Notch Above Being Junk

Italian drama continues. On Friday, Moody’s, one of the most significant rating agencies in the world, downgraded the Italian credit rating from Baa2 to Baa3. It means that Italy’s local and foreign-currency bonds are now only one notch above junk territory. The move was not surprising, as well as the reasons behind this decision:

Thursday, October 25, 2018

U.S. Shale Oil Has A Glaring Problem / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices are down a bit, but are still close to multi-year highs. That should leave the shale industry flush with cash. However, a long list of U.S. shale companies are still struggling to turn a profit.

A new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and the Sightline Institute detail the "alarming volumes of red ink" within the shale industry.

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Sentiment Is The Most Important Factor To Focus On in Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

I have now been a contributor at Seeking Alpha for seven years, during which time I have written for approximately six years, as I took a one-year hiatus. And, during that time, I have had the honor of penning almost 400 articles.

During the six years I have been actively writing on Seeking Alpha, 30,000 of you have trusted me enough to begin following my work, as I just hit the 30,000-follower mark. For that I am very grateful, honored and humbled. So, I wanted to first thank you all.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Gold Stocks Sentiment Shifting / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have been largely ignored and neglected for years.  Speculators and investors wanted little to do with them for various reasons.  But that apathetic sentiment is finally starting to shift thanks to last week’s stock-market plunge.  Capital is starting to return to this battered sector as traders begin to realize how radically undervalued it is.  Sentiment mean reversions can catapult gold stocks far higher.

Sentiment is defined as “a thought, view, or attitude, especially one based mainly on emotion instead of reason”.  We humans are inherently-emotional creatures riddled with sentiment on almost everything.  That’s especially true in our perceptions of the financial markets, which heavily influence if not dominate our trading decisions.  We buy and sell stocks when it feels good, when markets appear to validate our outlooks.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

The Incredibly Bullish Set-Up for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the bullish set-up for gold and why he believes this time is different. For the first time in months, Fido the Wonder Dog has been in my office and at the foot of my bed 24/7 for the past few days giving me great solace that the current advance in precious metals prices is here to stay. Gone are his nervous tics every time my chair squeaks or when I give a little "Whoop-whoop!" at the sight of decent gold quote and most certainly absent are all of the caked mudballs in his fur from having to sleep (hide) under the tool shed.