Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 30, 2018
What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
A Black Swan is when something dramatic happens that most people did not expect, like when house prices went down, not up...remember that?
Last week on Bloomberg News, Javier Blas wrote of a new “Shale Boom” that could...create “OPEC’s Worst Nightmare”. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-21/opec-s-worst-nightmare-the-permian-is-about-to-pump-a-lot-more
That sentiment reflects a broad consensus of opinion that has driven oil prices down 30% in two months. The central theme of the article was that the spike in year-on-year change of U.S. production of “oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids”, to 3.0 million barrels per day (MBPD) in August 2018, was proof of shale-oil’s continuing resurgence.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Should Gold Bulls Open the Champagne? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Powell spoke yesterday. The gold market considered his remarks as dovish. And the market is always right, isn’t it?
Just Below Neutral
On Wednesday, Powell delivered a speech “The Federal Reserve’s Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability” at The Economic Club of New York. The majority of analysts judged the speech as dovish. Why? The key reason was Powell’s view that interest rates were close to neutral:
Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy – that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Love. Fear. Inflation. A Precious Metals' Trifecta / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: MoneyMetals
By David Smith: Going forward, there are – and will continue to be – three primary drivers of global physical gold (and silver) demand.
During certain times in the past only one or two of these elements provided most of the momentum.
However, as we move into 2019, and for possibly the next 5-10 years, all three will be in play. They will operate synergistically to consistently motivate increased precious metals' buying around the globe. This will happen, even as meeting that demand with sufficient new supply becomes problematic.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Why the Crude Oil Price Collapsed to $50 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
From a high of $77 barely 6 weeks ago the crude oil price has been on a relentless downwards slide, slicing through key support levels all the way to a new low for the year of just $50! A move that NO ONE saw coming! With the key triggering price point coming late October when the oil price failed to hold support at $64.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Gold Joins the Decline – the Earth is Shaking / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver and mining stocks declined in a quite visible way yesterday, which is in tune with our previous expectations. In the previous days it was only silver and miners that declined in a meaningful manner, but yesterday gold joined them, making this a sector-wide decline. Is this the groundbreaking decline that we have been writing about for so long? Time will tell, but the earth is already shaking.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Looking ahead: Why the Smart Money is Investing in Green Energy / Commodities / Renewable Energy
By: Andrew_Cioffi
Tech industry headlines might have been focused on Apple’s recent milestone, whereby they officially became the first company in history to achieve a $1 trillion market capitalization, but the renewable energy sector had its own cause for celebration, also starting with the letter ‘t’.
The news from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the world’s total capacity for energy production through wind and solar has surpassed 1 terawatt, and we might not have to wait too long before we can get to the next terawatt, if the current pace of progress, uptake, and innovation keeps up into the future. As a matter of fact, the BNEF makes the surprisingly upbeat prediction that by the year 2023, we might see this achieved at only 46% of what the first terawatt cost.
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Removing the Cloak from Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The new Alchemist is out. What can we learn from the latest publication of the LBMA? We invite you to read our today’s article and find out!
Banque de France and Gold
The latest edition of LBMA’s Alchemist focuses on the role of central banks in the gold market. Sylvie Goulard, Deputy Governor of Banque de France, wrote the first article, entitled Banque de France and Gold: Past and Future. . According to her, the central bank of France has always been a major player in the gold market. Indeed, in the 19th century, Paris was a major gold centre, while Napoleon (20 franc gold coin) was one of the iconic coins of the 19th and 20th century. And, since its creation in 1800, the Banque de France has held one of the largest gold and silver reserves in the world.
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Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Silver Trading and the Hands of a Broken Clock / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger muses on lessons learned and profits to be gained in silver trades. "Even a broken clock is right twice a day." ― Stephen Hunt, The Court of the Air
There are times when every investor has to look long and deep into a mirror and determine whether a well-thought-out strategy is actionable or whether it is simply an ad hoc "hunch," barely worth chasing. With regard to silver, this is just one of those times.
In 2003-2004, I was stopped out four times under $5 per ounce trying to establish a 10-lot futures position in silver (50,000 ounces), which, at the time, demanded US$18,000 in maintenance margin. When I finally threw in the towel, my $18 grand worth of "dead presidents" was worth slightly less than $6,000.
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Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Will DOJ Finally Hold Bullion Banks Accountable for Gold and Silver Market Rigging / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Clint Siegner : It is hard to cheer for the Department of Justice these days, but federal prosecutions have begun to offer hope for precious metals investors hurt by rigged markets and crooked traders.
The DOJ looks poised to do what regulators at the CFTC have not. They will use evidence of blatant cheating and fraud to hold a few bankers accountable.
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Tuesday, November 27, 2018
GDX, This Most-Hated Stock Could Return You 140% in Just a Few Months / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Stephen_McBride
Opportunities like this are rare. I study markets for a living and I see one setup like it a year, at the most. But will you listen to me? Will you buy the stock I recommend in this article?
I hope so… because there’s a realistic shot to make roughly 140% in just a few months.
But there’s a catch.
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Sunday, November 25, 2018
Precious Metals Moving In Unison For A Massive Price Advance: Part II / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to explore our custom research into the metals markets and our presumption that the metals markets are poised for a massive price rally over the next few months/years, we pick up this second part of our multi-part article illustrating our research work and conclusions. If you missed the first part of this article, please take a minute to review it by before continuing further (Link to Part I).
We left off in Part I showing a number of supply and demand components and briefly highlighting our newest research using a custom Gold/Silver/US Dollar ratio index. Our attempt at finding anything new that could help us determine the future outcome of the metals markets and to either support or deny our future expectations that the metals markets are poised for a massive price advance was at stake. This new research would either help to confirm our analysis or completely blow it out of the water with new data. Let’s continue where we left off and start by showing even more data related to our new custom metals ratio.
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Friday, November 23, 2018
How Will the Rollback of Dodd-Frank Affect Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
This reform will make US financial system more vulnerable, just adding fuel to the fire of easy money. This is what some people worry about. Are they right? We invite you to read our today’s article about the rollback of Dodd-Frank Act and its potential implications for the price of gold.
In May, President Trump signed the rewrite of the 2010 Dodd-Frank law passed earlier by Congress with rare bipartisan support. The bill is the biggest rollback of bank rules since the financial crisis. According to the new law, lenders with less than $10 billion in assets will be exempted from the Volcker rule that bans proprietary trading. Moreover, the bill eases rules on all but the largest institutions, raising the threshold by which banks are considered systematically important and, thus, subject to tighter oversight from $50 to $250 billion in assets. The smallest banks between $50 and $100 billion were immediately freed of stricter regulations, while depositary institutions between $100 and $250 billion in assets will be exempt from them beginning in November 2019, although they could still be subjected to the Fed’s enhanced supervision in times of need. Last month, the Fed just unveiled a proposal for the implementation of several major provisions of the new bill.
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Thursday, November 22, 2018
Thanksgiving for Proper Gold Stock Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
All through the bear market hopeful rationalizations were served up for a bullish case on the gold miners. All through the bear market we warned people not to eat that rotten turkey!
China demand, the China and India “love trade”, cyclical inflation driving up the prices of commodities and resources and the classic… economic growth in the US will create cost-push inflation through wage increases with the smart money seeking inflation protection in gold. All of those and a veritable Turducken of mishmashed ingredients were served to gold bugs as a decidedly not delectable appetizer before the main course.
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Wednesday, November 21, 2018
How to Catch Bottoms in Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
It is very difficult to pick exact bottoms but there are many tools we can use to help us pinpoint potential bottoms.
You don’t hear technical analysts talk about fundamentals but we do for a reason. Major shifts in the primary trend are supported by fundamental shifts, though they can be very hard to spot until after the fact.
Because of our extensive study of history, we are convinced that precious metals will not begin a real bull market until the Fed stops hiking rates. The data shows that many times (though not every time) the gold stocks bottomed soon after the Fed’s final rate hike.
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Wednesday, November 21, 2018
Did We Just Witness The Bottom in the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Plunger
Markets are deceptive…but we all know that. Beyond deceptive, markets are actually down right diabolical. Mr. Market operates through his two most trustworthy lieutenants Mr. Bull and Mr. Bear. He has tasked Mr. Bull to climb and reach the top of the mountain using investors buying power to fuel the rise. But he has also instructed Mr. Bull to not allow those same investors to complete the journey themselves, he wants to reach the top without them. It’s a hard job to pull off and Mr Bull needs to use every trick in the book to throw off these investors after they use their money to power the trend upward. It’s a process that takes time and Mr. Bull’s prime tools are greed and fear in the minds of investors.
Mr. Bear however, has been assigned a totally different mission. When it’s his turn he has been tasked to use those very same investors to power the trend to un-dreamed of lows. This is a mission even more difficult than Mr. Bull’s because counter to Mr. Bull it’s Mr. Bear’s duty to actually keep those investors in the market despite it falling over time, which is no easy task. This is because if these investors just gave up and left the market it would simply stop going down. His mission requires a particularly high level of deviance to pull off. It’s why Mr. Market retains a particularly fond place in his heart for Mr. Bear, since Mr. Market has a diabolical nature and like the Grand Inquisitor, he has no problem drawing blood.
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Wednesday, November 21, 2018
Have We Seen The Worst of the Gold Bubble Burst? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Harry_Dent
You know I’ve been fighting the gold bugs for a long time. Gold is an inflation hedge, not a deflation hedge. Turn to gold for safety during a deflationary period and you’ll get your ass handed to you on a golden platter!
Gold is simply another commodity and it burst in the 30-year cycle top between 2008 and 2011, just like it did after the 1980 top.
But my bubble model projected that gold would fall to at least $700 and possibly as low as $400 to $450 per ounce…
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
Powell and Gold between Inflation and Global Slowdown / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Powell is apparently between a rock and a hard place. Inflation surged, while the global economy slowed down. What will he do? And how will gold react?
Inflation Jumps in October
The consumer price index climbed 0.3 percent last month, after rising 0.1 percent in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was the biggest rise since January, and it was mainly caused by an impressive surge in the fuel oil (+3.7 percent) and gasoline indices (+3 percent). However, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose, advancing 0.2 percent in October, following a 0.1-percent increase in September.
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Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Can We Expect A Major Rebound In Crude Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
After declining by more than 20 percent from the October peak, oil prices are showing some signs that they have now bottomed out.
WTI hit a low point at $56 per barrel on Wednesday and Brent hit a low just below $65 per barrel. Both crude benchmarks regained some ground at the end of the week, despite the huge increase in U.S. crude oil inventories. In fact, rising prices in the face of the 10-million-barrel increase in crude stocks suggests that oil may have already hit a bottom. “[Y]esterday’s price reaction to the US inventory data shows that negative news is now largely priced in,” Commerzbank said in a note. “This is the only way to explain why an increase in US crude oil stocks of a good 10 million barrels failed to put further pressure on prices.”
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Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Commodities - What Do You Need To Know? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Submissions
When dealing with the buying and selling of commodities, there are things which you need to know. It can be a complicated business, and this means that people who buy and sell products can fall into some of the common pitfalls and experience issues.
However, commodities can cover a wide range of different goods and services, so there are things that you're going to need to know. To try and make sure that you've got a good understanding of how things work, we're going to be taking a look at a few of the things you need to know about commodities.
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Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Precious Metals Moving In Unison For A Massive Price Advance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Are the metals markets ending a price correction in unison and preparing for a massive price advance? This is the question we asked our research team to investigate and their findings may help skilled traders identify great opportunities in the future. This multi-part research article will share our most recent opinion about the metals markets as well as share some critical new data that can shed some light into what we believe will become a massive upside price rally in the metals markets. Let’s get into the data.