Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 28, 2020
Gold, Silver & HUI Stocks Big Pictures / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold, silver and the HUI Gold Bugs index are viewed here by their big picture monthly charts. In NFTRH we use mainly daily and weekly charts of these along with individual miners to better gauge the shorter-term pictures, which will advise on the end of the correction better than these more cumbersome monthlies that are great for keeping perspective amid the shorter-term noise.
Our target for gold was 1940, established in April off a daily chart pattern. That target was blown through and as the monthly chart shows, a big picture Cup was formed as it made a higher high right around the time that the Buffett hype signaled the oncoming correction as we noted on August 17th:
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Monday, September 28, 2020
Gold Stocks Seasonal Plunge / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have just been hammered, plunging to new correction lows. That shattered their indexes’ 50-day moving averages, pounding nails in the coffin of this sector’s recent high consolidation. This necessary correction probably isn’t over yet. It is still small and short compared to this bull market’s precedent, the gold stocks are nowhere near oversold, and they are heading into a seasonal-plunge month.
Seeing the gold stocks rolling over into a correction shouldn’t surprise anyone. They enjoyed a great run, as evident in their leading and dominant sector benchmark the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. From mid-March’s pandemic stock-panic lows to early August, GDX rocketed 134.1% higher in just 4.8 months! That powerful and fast upleg left gold stocks seriously overbought, necessitating a correction.
That healthy process to rebalance stretched technicals and greedy sentiment began right away. In the first four trading days after GDX peaked at $44.48 in early August, this ETF plunged 12.2%. The major gold stocks of GDX mirror and amplify gold, which overwhelmingly drives their earnings. So the gold-stock selling ceased with gold’s own sharp selloff. Gold had shot parabolic to extraordinarily-overbought levels.
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Monday, September 28, 2020
Why Did Precious Metals Get Clobbered Last Week? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets got clobbered early this week as gold and silver broke down from their high-level consolidations.
Strength in the U.S. Dollar Index seemed to be the catalyst that got the selling going. Once key technical levels got breached, the selling intensified.
Gold prices fell below the $1,900 level on Wednesday. Meanwhile, silver plummeted below $24 an ounce and traded as low as $22 on Thursday before recouping some of those losses by the end of the trading day.
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Sunday, September 27, 2020
China Ramps Up U.S. Crude Oil Imports As Elections Near / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
China has been buying a lot of U.S. crude oil lately, perhaps in a belated attempt to fulfill some of the energy import quotas agreed with Washington last year or perhaps in a bid to take advantage of supercheap U.S. crude. But the buying spree is about to end.
This month alone, China could import between 867,000 bpd, according to Reuters' Refinitiv data, and 900,000 bpd, according to oilfield services company Canary. And then the flow of U.S. oil into China will decline, and it will decline sharply, Reuters' Clyde Russell wrote this week. The reason as simple as it is worrying. The U.S. crude that has been going into China since July—and reaching major records in terms of volume, with the July daily average alone up 139 percent on the year—was bought much earlier, in April, May, and June. This was oil bought when West Texas Intermediate was trading at multi-year lows. By June it had recovered to about $40, Russell notes, so purchases since then have been more modest.
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Sunday, September 27, 2020
Gold Price Setting Up Just Like Before COVID-19 Breakdown – Get Ready! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Gold rebounded quickly and broke to higher prices after the COVID deep selling.
- Our Fibonacci support levels for Gold are resting near $1,885, $1,815 & $1,790.
- More downside pressure on price is possible, but if support is maintained at $1,885 then we could see a big upside recovery trend take Gold to $2,250.
Just before the COVID-19 collapse in the markets hit near February 25, 2020, Gold started a double-dip move after reaching $1,692 on February 24. First, Gold dipped from $1,692 to $1,564, then recovered to new highs ($1,704.50) on March 10, 2020. Then, as the deeper COVID-19 selling continued, Gold prices dipped again – this time targeting a low level of $1,450.90.
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Sunday, September 27, 2020
Gold, Dollar and Rates: A Correlated Story / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Mining production? No. China’s consumer demand? No. The main drivers of gold prices are, as I’ve repeated many times, the U.S. dollar and real interest rates. You don’t believe it? You don’t have to – just look at the charts below.The first one displays the greenback and the dollar-denominated price of gold. Because other series start much later, I used here the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index against major currencies that circulate widely outside the country of issuance. Although the correlation is not perfect, the inverse relationship is quite strong and bull and bear markets in gold coincide with the bear and bull trends in the U.S. dollar.
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Friday, September 25, 2020
Precious Metals Trading Range Doing It’s Job to Confound Bulls and Bears Alike / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
The trading range on the HUI and other PM stock indexes continues its job of confusing both the bulls and bears alike. I’ve always said that trading an impulse move is much easier than trading during a consolidation phase. During a strong impulse move up it is easy to see the price action making higher highs and higher lows. Trading during a consolation phase is usually completely different.
Below is the daily chart we’ve been following for the HUI which shows the morphing triangle that has been in play since the first of August. Last week the price action made a feeble attempt to breakout above the top rail which was quickly negated when the HUI traded back inside of the triangle. Today the price action gapped below the 50 day sma and found support on the bottom rail which completed the 7th reversal point.
I added a parallel blue trendline taken from the top rail of the blue triangle if that pattern morphs into a bigger consolation pattern that could either be a bull flag or a bullish falling wedge depending where the last reversal points comes into play. I’ve also said this many times as well in the past that the 4th or last reversal point in a consolation pattern is always the hardest to spot in real time. They don’t become visible until the price action can rally far enough above the last reversal point that it finally shows itself. Whatever the consolation pattern ends up being it should still be looked at as a halfway pattern to the upside as shown by the green arrows.
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Friday, September 25, 2020
Gold and Silver Are Still Locked and Loaded… Don't be Out of Ammo / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
In military terms, the phrase "locked and loaded" refers to "locking" a magazine or cartridge into a firearm and loading a round into the gun's chamber. A variant is to "lock the safety" and then load a magazine into the weapon.
The analogy in his essay is that from a technical (chart) standpoint, the price of gold and silver are building energy to the point that they are getting closer and closer to breaking out of a consolidation pattern and beginning the next impulse in the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
The pullback this week does not negate the outlook for higher prices in the coming weeks and months.
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Friday, September 25, 2020
Throwing the golden baby out with the covid bath water - Gold Wins / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Richard_Mills
The dollar is the most important unit of account for international trade, the main medium of exchange for settling international transactions, and the store of value for central banks. The Federal Reserve is the lender of last resort, as in the 2008–09 financial crisis, and is the most common currency for overseas borrowing by governments and businesses.
Investors want to own dollars when the proverbial poo hits the fan, or a wrench is thrown into the machinery of the global economy - pick your metaphor they all fit the coronavirus crisis.
On Monday the US dollar index, DXY, soared as investors flocked to safety amid a global stock market rout resulting from rising covid-19 cases, especially in the UK and Europe.
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Friday, September 25, 2020
Corona Strikes Back In Europe. Will It Boost Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The number of new daily infections in Europe is rapidly increasing, even reaching new heights in several countries. That is just another reminder that the second wave in fall or winter is upon us.Yes, I know. You are all fed up reading about the coronavirus. And yet, the coronavirus is not fed up with spreading around the globe. The number of new daily infections keeps going up, as the chart below shows.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2020
Platinum And Palladium Set To Surge As Gold Breaks Higher / Commodities / Platinum
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Gold will target the $2,250 level before stalling and attempting another upside price rally targeting $2,500 or higher.
- Silver will target the $33 price level when the current upside move builds enough momentum, then target $38 or higher.
- Our next upside price target for platinum is $1,410, representing a +52.4% upside price target.
- Palladium bottom in March 2020 was near $1,357. We expect a new upside price target for Palladium near $3,663 once it has broken out past current resistance levels.
If you have been following my research for a while, you are already aware of past research posts suggesting Gold and Silver will advance in multiple upside price legs over the next 90+ days. Gold will target the $2,250 level before stalling and attempting another upside price rally targeting $2,500 or higher. Silver will target the $33 price level when the current upside move builds enough momentum, then target $38 or higher.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2020
Key Gold Ratios to Other Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Views of gold in relation to other markets and brief summaries thereof, with a focus on how it relates to the gold mining sector and the inflationary macro to come.
Gold/Silver Ratio
Gold/Silver is in a potential bounce pattern with RSI and MACD positive divergences. A bounce (if applicable) – which would likely come in unison with a counter-trend bounce in USD could accompany more broad market pressure and possibly a brief whiff of deflation. As we’ve noted in NFTRH for much of 2020, silver has trounced gold and that is a bigger picture inflationary signal in the “metallic credit spread” (H/T Bob Hoye).
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Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has been consolidating high since early August, when it rocketed parabolic on colossal gold-ETF demand. That 6-week-old sideways drift has worked off some greed and overboughtness, but plenty still remains. So gold isn’t out of the woods yet for this essential sentiment-rebalancing selloff. With residual overboughtness still extreme, gold faces considerable downside risk heading into its biggest seasonal selloff.
Across the financial markets, absolute price levels usually don’t matter much in technical and sentimental terms. Though they are important fundamentally. Supply and demand always converge to drive prices to sustainable levels, and over time traders come to accept them as normal. But how fast prices surged or plunged to current prevailing levels is exceedingly important, greatly affecting their short-term staying power.
The faster prices soar, the more excited traders grow about chasing that profitable upside momentum. As their greed flares and morphs into euphoria, they throw increasing amounts of capital at the fast-climbing prices. But such big and aggressive buying is never sustainable for long. Soon greed sucks in everyone interesting in buying anytime soon, exhausting their capital firepower. The price peaks leaving only sellers.
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Monday, September 21, 2020
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth outlines the reasons he believes the price of silver will continue to rise. They say patience is a virtue.
Well, if anyone is virtuous these days, it has to be silver bulls.
They also say good things come to those who wait. I believe those good things will be coming…in spades.
Silver reached just shy of $50 back in April 2011. A decade later, we're still just barely above half that level.
But that's all about to change.
Since bottoming in March, gold has rocketed to a new all-time high near $2,070 in early August, up 40%.
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Monday, September 21, 2020
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The latest FOMC statement and economic projections signal are that the interest rates will stay at zero until the end of 2023. This is excellent for gold.Yesterday, the Fed issued a statement regarding the FOMC meeting, which was held from September 15-16. The US central bank kept the interest rates and the conditions of its quantitative easing unchanged. The chart below shows the levels of effective federal funds rate and the Fed’s balance sheet.
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Sunday, September 20, 2020
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
At last, crude oil moved a bit higher, so you might be asking yourself if the trend has reversed or is this just a pause before the moves continue.
In short, we think the latter is much closer to the truth.
The fact remains that in a global and hyperconnected economy such as today, no market can sustain complete independence of the rest of the world. Crude oil, as the most versatile marketplace commodity, is not excluded from that reality.
Namely, the two markets that the black gold often looks up to the most are stocks and currencies. In today’s analysis, we’ll focus on the latter.
The black gold upswing has been relatively modest, and parallels with a similar pause in the USD Index. To validate this, let’s take a look at the following charts for more details.
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Saturday, September 19, 2020
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The ECB held its monetary policy stance steady. Meanwhile, the U.S. fiscal deficit reached its all-time high. What does it all mean for the gold prices?On Thursday, the members of the Governing Council of the ECB met together to undertake monetary policy decisions. They decided to leave the interest rates and the conditions of the quantitative easing unchanged. This lack of action was widely expected, so attention shifted to the fresh economic projections and the Lagarde’s press conference. Importantly, the ECB lifted its growth forecast for 2020 from -8.7 to ‘just’ -8.0 percent. With inflation projections almost unchanged, the recent monetary policy statement sounded a little bit more hawkish than the previous one.
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Friday, September 18, 2020
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Gold Pennant/Flag formation is now complete and setting up new momentum base near $1,925.
- Our Adaptive Fibonacci Models suggest support will prompt new Gold rally to $2,250.
- The rally in Gold will continue to extend higher over the next 4+ weeks.
- The US Dollar may move lower and/or the US stock market may break recent support to prompt this new rally in Gold.
If you are a follower of my research, then you know I follow gold and silver closely. I believe Gold has completed a Pennant/Flag formation and has completed the Pennant Apex. Further, a new momentum base has setup near $1,925~1,930, near the upper range of our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System’s support range. My team and I believe the current upside price move after the Pennant Apex may be the start of a momentum base rally targeting the $2,250 level or higher.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2020
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Some swear by price action, many others rely on indicators. There are actually many gold trading tips built around these techniques. Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index, is one of the rare ones that don't issue signals all that often. And it showed the highest possible overbought reading recently.
The excessive bullishness was present at the 2016 top as well and it didn’t cause the situation to be any less bearish in reality. All markets periodically get ahead of themselves regardless of how bullish the long-term outlook really is. Then, they correct. If the upswing was significant, the correction is also quite often significant.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Richard_Mills
Daily coronavirus cases may be down in the United States, but that is no reason to be complacent, especially given that cold and flu season is only a few weeks away, says the nation’s top doctor.
In a roundtable discussion Thursday at Harvard Medical School, Dr. Anthony Fauci warned that “we need to hunker down and get through this fall and winter, because it’s not going to be easy.” He compared the pandemic to the early days of HIV in terms of how quickly it escalated, and how it might continue to escalate, if current trends of low mask-wearing and social distancing continue. “We've been through this before,” he said. “Don't ever, ever underestimate the potential of the pandemic. And don't try and look at the rosy side of things.”
On Friday Dr. Fauci went against President Trump, who in a White House news briefing Thursday told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell, “I really do believe we’re rounding the corner,” referring to new cases having declined substantially since July.
According to data from John Hopkins University, over the past seven days the country has reported an average 35,200 cases per day, which is 12% lower than a week ago, and around half compared to 70,000 cases per day peak in late July.
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