Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, July 31, 2020
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts oil and discusses what he sees ahead for the commodity.
Compared to the wild volatility that we witnessed back in the spring, trading in oil has become very light and subdued, with volatility in it dropping to a very low level, and as a result many traders are losing interest in it. It is quiet—too quiet—and complacency towards it is now rife, but as we will see, there are signs that this may all be about to change, and fast.
We'll start by looking at the year-to-date arithmetic chart for Light Crude on which we can see all of the dramatic developments this year. After deteriorating early in the year, the oil price accelerated to the downside, plunging early in March with a big gap down and then it continued to weaken into mid-April when a sudden huge drop left some contracts not just worthless, but actually having negative worth, meaning that if you took delivery you had to in effect pay someone to take it away, for an amount that exceeded what the oil was actually worth. Clearly, this was a situation that was untenable because so much depends on the oil price, so the Fed and the Military–Industrial complex worked all the levers at their disposal to get the price back up again, which of course included creating trillions of new dollars to throw at the problem, and to throw at the markets generally, especially the "window dressing" FAANG stocks. Up to now this has worked and we have seen a recovery rally of astounding proportions in the stock markets, especially the tech sector, and a respectable recovery in the oil price, and what makes all this even more astounding is that it has happened as the real world economy has been frozen by widespread lockdowns, the main purpose of which is to kill the velocity of money so that the Fed can print trillions and buy up everything without it feeding through immediately into hyperinflation—that will come later.
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Thursday, July 30, 2020
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold has jumped above $1,850 amid expectations of new stimulus, worries about the pace of economic recovery, and concerns about rising tensions between the U.S. and China.Houston, we have a problem! Please take a look at the chart below that presents the U.S. initial jobless claims. What do you see?
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Wednesday, July 29, 2020
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
With silver breaking out decisively to the upside, bears are running for cover.
We had noted in our July 13th News Alert, “We are paying especially close attention to the bull vs. bear tug-of-war in the silver market around $19/oz. If the bulls yank prices decisively above that level on a strong close, short covering by capitulating bears could help drive a powerful breakout rally.”
That’s exactly what happened. The rally really accelerated once the $20/level was taken out last Monday. The bears have capitulated big time!
Also being forced to re-think their positions are gold-only bulls within the precious metals camp. Although they represent a minority viewpoint, some stubbornly cling to the view that only gold is sound money. They view silver as an industrial metal and tend to shun it as an investment.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Jason_Hamlin
The gold price made a new all-time nominal high today at $1,945 per ounce. This move should not come as a surprise to anyone paying attention to the current financial landscape. The FED has injected an unprecedented amount of new money/debt into the economy since March in efforts to avoid a collapse from the impact of the Covid-19 virus and subsequent restrictions of business activity globally. Over $6 trillion in stimulus so far is roughly double the entire amount injected during the financial crisis of 2008/09. And they are just getting started.
The Federal Reserve has stated that stimulus efforts will last for years and they have committed to do “whatever it takes” to keep the economy afloat. The Federal Reserve balance sheet has shot from $4 trillion pre-crisis to $7 trillion today. This is the highest level on record by a wide margin and the fastest it has ever increased. And this is before the 2nd round of stimulus, which is currently being negotiated. While there are plenty of dollar bulls amidst a global dollar shortage, they have been incorrect in their bullish outlook thus far. The dollar index has dropped from a high of 103 on March 20th to just 94, a significant drop in just a few months to the lowest level since September of 2018.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Dan_Amerman
As shown in the graph below, the first half of 2020 produced an unusual change in the relationship between gold prices, stock prices and recessions, something that has only happened twice before in the last fifty years. Each of the two previous times this has occurred after a long run up in stock prices, it has been part of a cyclical change to a cycle favoring gold over stocks for a decade or more thereafter.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
During the bull market years between 2000 and 2011 the US dollar and currencies played a key role in the PM complex bull market. Tonight I would like to go back and visit some of these old charts and see how they pertain to our current bull market.
Lets start with a simple GOLD:USD ratio chart that goes back to the 2011 all time high in gold. The bottom for the ratio came in toward the end of 2015 and has been slowly rising in what we can now call a bullish rising 5 point rising wedge reversal pattern. The 2011 bear market in the ratio ended in June of 2019 when the top rail was broken to the upside. Less than a year later the price action took out the top rail of the blue bullish rising wedge reversal pattern and is starting to impulse higher. This is a very bullish development.
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Monday, July 27, 2020
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The move we saw in Silver early this week to new 6-year high price levels, above $22.60, is quite likely the biggest upside move in Silver since the bottom in March 2020 – after the US stock market collapsed because of the COVID-19 virus event. This new rally in Silver is likely the move we’ve been suggesting to our followers relating to a series of measured upside price moves totaling approximately $5.30 in each advance.
We wrote about these measured price moves in Gold and Silver in this article – Click Here
As traders, watching bonds accelerate moderately higher as the US Dollar falls and the stock market attempts new lofty levels, we are intrigued by the move in metals because it suggests a large segment of investors believe a bubble is nearing very peak valuation levels. The only reason metals, particularly Silver, would be accelerating as it has recently is that traders have suddenly adopted a stronger demand for second-stage hedging of risk.
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Monday, July 27, 2020
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
We tend to spend a lot of time looking into the rearview mirror, especially when under duress.
Connected to this is something psychologists call "recency bias." This simply means that what has happened in the near to intermediate past tends to inform and influence us as to how we should behave in the future.
The 2011 to early 2019 precious metals bear saga was broken only by a six-month bull hiatus in early 2016 – which then gave most of the rise back over the next two years!
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Sunday, July 26, 2020
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
European leaders stroke a historic deal that could be a game-changer and provide a support for the euro and gold against the U.S. dollar.Historic deal. Pivotal moment for Europe. On Monday, the EU leaders agreed on a massive economic stimulus plan, after a long and crotchety summit. If passed through the European Parliament and ratified by all EU states, the European Commission could borrow 750 billion euros to finance the recovery fund and distribute 390 billion in grants and 360 billion in loans across the countries most impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.
That's breaking news and potentially a game-changer. The stimulus could, of course, help somewhat the European economies, supporting the recovery, but the key issue is that the summit’s outcome is an unprecedented act of European solidarity. Some analysts even see the agreement as the first step towards a true fiscal union. It’s still far from it, but the recovery fund marks a precedent for common debt financing at the EU level.
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Saturday, July 25, 2020
How High Will Silver Go? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The torrid rally in the silver market reached a major milestone this morning as prices hit $21/oz.
On Monday, the silver spot price tracked by Money Metals Exchange closed at $20.12 (the futures market price settled at $20.19).
That marks the first above-$20 close for silver since 2016.
The white-hot silver market is busting through some resistance levels that should clear the way for higher highs ahead. Silver prices traded up Tuesday morning to $21.21 oz.
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Saturday, July 25, 2020
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
It has been quite some time since I have published an article on gold. Unfortunately, we have become so busy at Elliottwavetrader that I simply have not had the time to publish many public articles.
So, as we are approaching an inflection point, I thought it would be an appropriate time to publish a public article.
Now, I have to be honest. I am quite disappointed at what I am reading publicly about gold. Many are still trying to sell you on the fact that gold is a hedge against market volatility. They suggest that you need to own gold to protect your portfolio when the stock market tanks. Well, in many past articles, I have outlined that history simply does not support this perspective.
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Saturday, July 25, 2020
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team believes Crude Oil and Energy, in general, has stalled near major resistance and maybe setting up a big downside move as the COVID-19 virus continues to roil regional and global economies.
The recent news that the COVID-19 virus cases have skyrocketed suggests further economic shutdowns may push oil prices below $35 ppb over the next few weeks and months. Our researchers believe Oil has already set up a resistance level near $42 and will begin to move lower as concerns about the economic recovery transition through expectations related to oil demand going forward. We believe the renewed global economic demand for oil will present a very real possibility that oil could collapse below $35 ppb over the next 30 days.
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Saturday, July 25, 2020
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
In this week's advisory, sector expert Michael Ballanger reviews the most recent market news, celebrates old-school communication techniques and offers strategies for investing in the dog days of summer.
As the month of July moves into its final ten-day stretch, I see NASDAQ records falling left and right as the drivers of fear that dominated in March are now "yesterday's news." Rising second waves of infection and death have been shunted aside in favor of a reborn optimism surrounding "vaccines" and "V-shaped data" and "added stimulus" and just about anything imaginable that can drive money into stocks.
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Friday, July 24, 2020
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
We’ve been micro-managing silver lately in NFTRH and NFTRH+ updates and that is for a reason. The reason is that gold’s wild little bro has been rallying – in what is turning out to be 5 clear waves – since the March crash.
When that crash reversed, my view, and hence the NFTRH view was that it was likely to have been a horrifying shakeout of the silver bulls that due to its violence may well have sparked a bull market of some kind on the flush. We noted in real time that silver and precious metals mining stocks often make dramatic crash lows immediately preceding significant new rallies or bull markets. Silver was in an uptrend before the crash and that was a significant factor to a bullish view, post-crash.
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Friday, July 24, 2020
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
Previously, I have shown how the Dow has actually outperformed silver and gold since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.
Today, if silver had the same kind of performance as the Dow since around the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, then it would have topped out at $225.20 [(29568.6/78.78)*.6). Yet, it only topped out around $50 in 1980 and 2011.
In 1973 silver was in a similar type of position. The Dow had peaked at 1067.2 (in Jan 1973), which represented a X13.55 (1067.2/78.78) since 1913. If silver scored a similar performance, it would have had a peak of $8.128, yet its peak at that time (the beginning of 1973) was only around $2.56, which was achieved in 1968.
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Thursday, July 23, 2020
China Recovered in Q2. Will the Red Dragon Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
China’s economy grew 3.2 percent in Q2 2020. The expansion was above expectations, but it does not have to sink gold.Last week, China reported that its economy grew 3.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, following a 6.8 percent contraction in the previous quarter, as the chart below shows. Importantly, the actual growth rate beat the market expectations of a 2.5 percent expansion. The number is of great importance also because China is the first major economy to report positive growth after the coronavirus pandemic and the Great Lockdown. So, the Chinese data bode well for the U.S. and other countries, where the epidemic started later.
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Thursday, July 23, 2020
Translating the Gold Index Signal into Gold Target / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Last week, we wrote that gold miners flashed an “extremely overbought” signal, which they had only flashed once in the past – almost right at the 2016 top. The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index recently moved to the highest level that it could reach – 100.
The only other case when the index was at 100, was in mid-2016.
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Thursday, July 23, 2020
Weakness in commodity prices suggests a slowing economy / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Donald_W_Dony
As the world's economic engine starts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for certain key commodities are a good indicator of the rebound strength.
The S&P GSCI Commodity Index (Chart 1) is a collection of 24 commodities from all commodity sectors (energy products, industrial metals, agricultural products, livestock products and precious metals).
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Wednesday, July 22, 2020
Gold and Oil: Be Aware of the "Spike" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: EWI
"Hope and fear look different on a chart"
Recently in these pages, we noted that bull markets in stocks tend to end with "a subtly slowing ascent" rather than with a final "spike" higher, as many investors believe. Historical examples were provided.
It was also pointed out that, by contrast, commodities do tend to end major uptrends with a price spike.
The Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, by Frost & Prechter explains why (keep in mind regarding the quote from the book that fifth waves are the final wave in the main trend of a financial market):
Tuesday, July 21, 2020
Gold and gold mining stocks are entering a strong seasonal phase / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Dimitri_Speck
You may have heard that gold typically rallies seasonally from the middle of the year. This trend is driven by jewelry demand, which increases ahead of the Christmas business, the Indian wedding season and the Chinese New Year celebrations on the back of advance purchases by jewelers, which tend to put upward pressure on prices.
But what about the seasonal trend in gold stocks? Since the earnings of gold producers are highly geared to the gold price, a relationship should be discernible.
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