Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, September 06, 2020
Pension Funds Start Looking to Gold to Avert Disaster / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Public and private pension plans face a dual crisis.
The first and most obvious threat to pensioners is that defined-benefit vehicles are severely underfunded. By one estimate, pension systems taken as a whole are $638 billion in the red.
Some are in better shape financially than others. But all pension plans will have to reckon with a second huge challenge going forward.
Namely, they are already entirely unable to meet their stated return objectives by owning conventional “safe” interest-bearing instruments such as Treasury bonds.
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Sunday, September 06, 2020
Fed Embraces Higher Inflation. Will It Embrace Gold, Too? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Fed adopts a new strategy that opens the door for higher inflation. The change is fundamentally positive for gold prices.So, it happened! In line with market expectations, the Fed has changed its monetary policy framework into a more dovish one! This is something we warned our Readers in our last Fundamental Gold Report:
the Fed could change how it defines and achieves its inflation goal, trying, for example, to achieve its inflation target as an average over a longer time period rather than on an annual basis.
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Thursday, September 03, 2020
Platinum Tremd Forecast to Follow Gold Price Higher / Commodities / Platinum
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Platinum may be setting up in a technical pattern that is similar to the end of 2001/early 2002.
- Platinum could rally more than 300%, somewhere near $3,450 or higher.
- This might push Gold above $7,500 an ounce and may push silver somewhere north of $125 per ounce.
- Rally hinges on platinum breaking out above $1,050.50.
Platinum may be setting up in a technical pattern that is similar to the end of 2001/early 2002. At that time, Gold had already begun to rally above $340 and Platinum had rallied to levels above $600. Then, while Gold continued to rally, Platinum contracted to price levels near $400 on diminishing volume. Once that contraction was complete, Platinum began and upside price move with stronger volume levels which lasted almost seven years – reaching a peak above $2,300. Could the same setup be happening right now?
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Thursday, September 03, 2020
What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth looks at the factors behind the movements in the gold and silver markets. Gold's retreated from a record high above $2,000, and silver's off its own seven-year highs near $30.
Is that cause for concern? I doubt it.
These have been dramatic surges to new levels, brought on by a combination of low interest rates, historic money-printing raising the specter of inflation, a softer U.S. dollar, and of course a global pandemic.
But that doesn't mean gold and silver have to continue higher in a straight line.
Instead, these gains have been so strong that a period of retracement and consolidation are not only expected, they're crucial to the continued health of this precious metals bull market.
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Sunday, August 30, 2020
FOMC Minutes Push Gold Price Down / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
July FOMC minutes hit the gold prices. But what’s next for the yellow metal?The key event last week was the publication of the minutes from the FOMC meeting in July. After their release, the U.S. dollar jumped, while the price of gold dropped, as the chart below shows. Why? Well, the Fed officials disappointed investors who expected some clues about upgrading the U.S. central bank’s forward guidance in September. In other words, the Fed failed to provide any new guidance as to the interest rate expectations.
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Sunday, August 30, 2020
Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Elliott Wave International's analysts have posited that the next big global monetary event will be deflation, not inflation.
The writer of an August 18 Telegraph article also sees "powerful deflationary winds."
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Friday, August 28, 2020
Gold Miners and Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
I want to try to answer a subscriber’s question as clearly as I can because it really does seem to be more confusing than it actually is. It’s always made sense to me but I understand there is a promotion machine out there selling viewpoints and in the gold sector especially, it is often wrong-headed, lazy analysis using tired assumptions.
Read full article... Read full article...“I do have a couple of questions that relate to gold/gold miner stocks that I can’t seem to get my head around. No hurry on an answer, just when you get time: From time to time, you have mentioned that inflation would send the gold bugs scurrying for cover. I had always thought that gold would rise during inflationary periods so I can’t seem to get why inflation would not be good for gold. And on the middle ground; how would gold likely act if we experience a prolonged period of stagflation?”
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Precious Metal Bullion Markets Catch a Breath / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Gold bugs may finally be taking their summer (stay)vacation. After months of frenetic activity in the bullion markets, physical buying and selling slowed a bit last week.
The respite, if it persists, could be welcome news for investors who have been frustrated by product scarcity and higher premiums.
The COVID-19-associated economic troubles have not been resolved, but those stories aren’t commanding the level of attention they did in recent weeks.
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Thursday, August 27, 2020
Are You Positioned for a Copper Price Explosion? / Commodities / Copper
By: Metals_Report
Independent financial analyst Matt Badiali presents the investment case for copper.
Copper will be the next metal to break out in 2020, and it's all about demand.
The price of copper just broke through $3.00 per pound. The red metal's price rose 45% so far in 2020. But that is still well below its 2011 high of $4.50 per pound.
That could change in the second half of this year.
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Thursday, August 27, 2020
What The 1987 Crash Reveals About Silver Today / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
The 1987 stock market crash occurred after a period with a similar build up to the 2020 crash. After being stuck in a range for a number of years in the 1970s and the 2000s, the Dow managed to break higher after a significant gold peak in 1980 as well as 2011 respectively. See the chart below:
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Thursday, August 27, 2020
$10,000 Gold – Or A Triple Top? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
Predictions for gold’s price are based on seemingly sound fundamentals and logic; but the fundamentals are incorrect and presented in unrealistic context. Here are some things to keep in mind when you see any predictions for the price of gold.
GOLD IS NOT AN INVESTMENT
Gold, itself, is not an investment. Gold is real money and the original measure of value for everything else.
A higher gold price is inversely correlated to a decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar. This, can be seen historically on the chart (source) below…
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Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Could Buffett Buy 130 Million Ounces of Silver Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Earlier this week, precious metals markets got a surprising Buffett bounce.
Legendary investor Warren Buffett isn’t often associated with gold – at least not in a positive way. In the past Buffett has made derisive comments about the monetary metal. He once quipped that gold “has no utility.”
A perpetual optimist on the U.S. economy, Buffett by nature doesn’t like the message that is sent by higher gold prices. He has likened investing in gold to “going long on fear.”
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Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Fed Can Control Yield Curve. But It Can’t Control Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In a response to the coronavirus crisis, the Fed has already cut interest rates to zero and implemented quantitative easing. But that’s not enough and the U.S. central bankers are now talking about “yield curve control”. What is it and how it could affect the gold market?
Normally, the central banks lower the short-term interest rate to stimulate the economy. But the federal funds rate is already at zero, so the Fed now thinks about the yield curve control. It works basically like normal open-market operations – the only difference is that under the yield curve control, the Fed would target some longer-term interest rate. As the central bank would set the short-term rates at zero and it would target also longer-term rates, it would practically control the yield curve, which explains the name. Moreover, the Fed would also promise to buy enough bonds to keep the rate from moving above the target – this is why the yield curve control is also called “interest rate caps” or “interest rate pegs”.
Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Cycles Demand Attention / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Research Highlights:
- With Gold trading above $2,000 for the first time and Silver trading near $27.50, you need to understand the risks in the markets that precious metals are warning of.
- If Gold breaks above $2,400, then there is a very real concern that the global markets could be close to some type of decline/collapse event.
- We believe the upside potential in precious metals could drive a very wide sideways market rotation, similar to what happened between 1999 and 2011, over the next 3+ years that may catch many off-guard.
Over the past few weeks and months, my research team and I have been actively publishing this research to help you better understand what is really happening in the markets right now. With Gold trading above $2,000 for the first time and Silver trading near $27.50, skilled traders need to understand the risks in the markets that precious metals are warning of. Think of it like this, as long as Gold continues to trade near or above $1900, the risk levels in the global markets are at extreme levels for traders and investors. If Gold breaks above $2,400, then there is a very real concern that the global markets could be close to some type of decline/collapse event.
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Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Warren Buffett: From Gold-Hater to Gold Bug / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth discusses Warren Buffett's big move into gold and discusses why the price of the metal is likely to climb much higher.
Warren Buffett has long been known as one of the biggest gold-haters around.
Yet in one move he's helped gold go mainstream.
The "Oracle of Omaha's" about face could be the ultimate Buy Signal.
For millions of investors, seeing Buffett dump banks while buying gold is likely to have a profound impact.
But as I'll show you, what's going on in the gold markets goes way beyond Buffett.
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Monday, August 24, 2020
Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
"Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices"
Elliott Wave International's analysts have posited that the next big global monetary event will be deflation, not inflation.
The writer of an August 18 Telegraph article also sees "powerful deflationary winds."
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Monday, August 24, 2020
The 100% Gold Portfolio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nick_Barisheff
When I founded BMG Group Inc. (formerly Bullion Management Group Inc. – BMG) over 20 years ago, I thought that my main challenge would be to get approval for our first fund from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC). My premise was that there was no approved way for retail investors to hold bullion in their RRSPs and other registered accounts. In addition, I wanted to structure the fund in a way that would not compromise the three fundamental attributes of bullion: liquidity, no counterparty risk and independent of management skills. Upon investigating closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and proxies, such as mining stocks and futures contracts, I found that all of these structures either compromised the liquidity of physical bullion or were not bullion at all, and were therefore dependent on counterparties for their performance. Other attributes compromised the direct ownership of bullion due to dependence on a portfolio manager to make trading decisions and to manage the asset. In addition, bullion leasing and leverage could distort the pure performance of bullion.
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Saturday, August 22, 2020
Was That the Top in Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It could have been. But what is more likely, it could have been the final pre-plunge top in case of the mining stocks. Why? Because the history tends to rhyme, and the verses appear more similar to what we already “read” in the mining stocks than they what we can see on the gold market.
Before digging into details, we would like to quote what we wrote on mining stocks on Monday:
Back in March, gold moved back to its previous highs (in fact it moved slightly above it) before topping and right now, it’s consolidating lower. Still, we should keep in mind that there’s also the possibility that gold won’t repeat the March performance to the letter and history will rhyme instead.
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Friday, August 21, 2020
Gold Price - See What This Fibonacci Ratio Says About Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: EWI
A Fibonacci .618 retracement is a common reversal point in the markets
Fibonacci numbers follow a sequence that begins with 0 and 1, and each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, and so on).
After the first several numbers in the sequence, the ratio of any number to the next higher is approximately .618 to 1; its ratio to the next lower number is approximately 1.618 to 1.
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Friday, August 21, 2020
Beyond the Surreal: Navigating the Precious Metals Minefield / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
The story of how an inner city liquor store grew its business serves as an example of what sector expert Michael Ballanger calls " a compelling revelation of 'academics versus practicality.'"
In watching the travesty of disinformation, misinformation and moral hazard formation ongoing in the global financial markets, I am immediately reminded of a case study from my university days of which I was a part, the nature of which required that our team analyze a local business and make specific recommendations designed to improve it. Seeing as our campus was located in the Saint Louis inner city, surrounded on three sides by a ghetto second only to Detroit's in crime and murder, and on the fourth by Interstate 70, it was to no one's surprise that the "local business" we were to dissect was a package liquor outlet run by a large and very angry African American gentleman by the name of Marcus Thicke.
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