Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, October 23, 2020
Further Gold Price Pressure as the USDX Is About to Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, mining stocks, and the USD Index have not been doing much recently. However, yesterday, this “inactivity” took quite a decisive shape, and unfortunately, things are not looking good for gold.
As you are all aware, gold tends to move conversely to the USD Index. Therefore, it’s useful to focus on the latter for signs that would influence the former. So, what does the current USDX outlook look like?
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Thursday, October 22, 2020
Silver Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Richard_Mills
Despite recent headwinds, it looks to be clear sailing going forward for silver, according to recent forecasts from three financial services firms.
“A higher gold price, along with the ongoing recovery in industrial demand, particularly from China, means that the price of silver is likely to rise in the year ahead,” Capital Economics said in a report published on Sept. 30.
“All in all, a market deficit in conjunction with a higher gold price should lift the price of silver to $25 and $27 per ounce by end-2020 and end-2021, respectively,” assistant commodities economist Samuel Burman wrote. He added,
“Demand for non-interest bearing safe-haven assets, such as gold and silver, should rise as real yields in the U.S. drift a little lower. We forecast that the US ten-year nominal yield will fall to 0.50%, from 0.70% currently, by the end of this year and that it will remain at this level in 2021. The Fed has already stated that it will keep policy ultra-loose until at least 2023 and allow inflation to overshoot its target.”
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Thursday, October 22, 2020
Goldman Sachs Likes Silver; Trump Wants Even More Stimulus / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Gold and silver markets slumped this week as stimulus talks faltered again in Washington.
Even though the White House upped its offer to $1.8 trillion, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi refused it – not wanting to give President Trump any kind of political victory ahead of the election.
Meanwhile, the President continues to campaign for stimulus. He is bucking Senate Republicans by offering to go even higher than $1.8 trillion.
Here’s what President Trump told Stuart Varney of Fox Business on Thursday:
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Thursday, October 22, 2020
Natural Gas/UNG Stepping GAP Patterns Suggest Pending Upside Breakout / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
An upward stepping GAP pattern for UNG and Natural Gas has our research team believing a strong upside price breakout may be pending. We believe the open gap patterns, which are below the current price levels, represent a building momentum based/bottom that has setup in UNG. This pattern, if we are correct, may prompt a big breakout move in the near future.
THREE GAPS PATTERN & MOMENTUM BASE COMPLETE – WHAT NEXT?
These GAP patterns are similar to a Japanese Candlestick pattern called “Three Gaps”. A Three Gaps pattern is typically associated with trending and suggests an exhaustion top may be near. It is represented by three very clear open price gaps in a defined trend (up or down), as can be seen in the chart below.
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Wednesday, October 21, 2020
The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro / Commodities / Copper
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Copper/Gold ratio is saying something. That something is that a cyclical, pro-inflation and thus pro-economic reflation metal shown earlier, remaining nominally positive on a down market day has, in relation to gold, taken out two important moving averages (daily SMA 50 & SMA 200) and is currently riding the short-term EMA 20 upward. RSI and MACD are positive.
Copper: Pro-cyclical inflation, pro-reflation, pro-economy.
Gold: Counter-cyclical, monetary, with inflationary utility.
Given the right circumstances (like desperate monetary and fiscal policy), which are in play on the wider macro, gold will probably do quite well moving forward. But maybe – for a while – not as well as some commodities if the Copper/Gold ratio really is up to something positive here.
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Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation is back. OK, not inflation, but inflation expectations. As the chart below shows, they plunged during the coronavirus crisis, but they have already recovered. Currently, and based on the inflation-protected Treasury yields, Mr. Market expects that inflation will be, on average, 1.5 percent in the next five years and 1.7 percent in the next ten years.
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Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
CLEAR PRICE CHANNEL MAY PROMPT BIG BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN MOVE IN OIL
In this report, I discuss the recent price action in crude oil and how economic conditions and the pennant flag chart pattern is indicating a big price move is about to take place over the next few weeks. While some of you may want a clear, bold prediction as to whether a breakout or breakdown may happen, as technical traders, our job is to predict different possible setups and identify the criteria that will tell us when to enter the trade upon confirmation. Read below to learn more.
Crude Oil has continued to retest the $41.75 to $42.00 resistance level over the past 30+ days. My research team believes this represents a very clear indication that further failure to advance above this level will prompt a moderate price decline – likely breaking below the $36.00 ppb price level.
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Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Gold price traded to a new all time high to well beyond the $2000 milestone after having held in a trading range at just below $1800 for most of the post corona crash bounce.
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Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The inflation remains low and below the Fed’s target. So, should gold bulls worry about it?The U.S. CPI inflation rate rose by 0.2 percent in September , following a 0.4 percent increase in August. It was the smallest jump since May. The move was driven by a 6.7- percent spike in the cost of used cars and trucks, and it’s the most significant upward change over half a century. The core CPI rose 0.2 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase in the preceding month.
On an annual basis, the overall CPI increased 1.4 percent (seasonally adjusted), following a 1.3 percent increase in August. The core CPI rose 1.7 percent, much like in the month prior (or a bit less if we abstract from rounding). Therefore, as the chart below shows, the period of disinflation perhaps ended, but the inflation remains low. It seems that even though the inflation rate has reached the bottom in May or June, the outbreak of high inflation in the near future is unlikely.
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Monday, October 19, 2020
Silver is Like Gold on Steroids / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth explains why he believes investors should hold a position in silver.
We're still in the early innings of a precious metals bull market.
And if you're wondering whether you need to own some silver, my answer is categorically yes.
It's only a matter of degree.
With silver that's important because it acts like gold, but on steroids.
Silver can languish for extended periods, even if gold moves. But then it tends to play a rapid game of catch-up.
Timing such moves is difficult at best. Instead, it's better to build a silver position on price weakness, then simply sit patiently.
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Monday, October 19, 2020
Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
With the presidential election less than a month away, sector expert Michael Ballanger offers a forecast for the gold and silver markets.
With a mere twenty-six days to the election of the "leader of the free world," of the richest, most powerful country in human history, financial markets are noticeably apprehensive as to outcome and understandably concerned with the reaction of the two deeply divided camps. With the Antifa and Black Lives Matter (BLM) "movements" mobilizing to disrupt at every turn, their ideological opponents carry little in the way of monikers but are passionately anti-BLM and anti-Antifa and even more passionately "pro-American," a descriptive often marching shoulder-to-shoulder with paramilitary and/or white supremacist groups.
The sad part of this misunderstood and misreported conflict is that the 1% elite, empowered by the politicians and the bankers that support them (the "banco-politico cartel"), would have us all believe that this conflict is the ultimate showdown between the conservative forces of law-and-order and the socialist forces of anarchy.
The stark reality is that the vast majority of the 99% that make up the unentitled non-elite, whose role has been to act as doormats upon which the 1% wipe their shoes, have finally had enough. It started with globalization, which shut down the manufacturing core of U.S. industry and shipped their jobs off to China and Mexico, and has culminated in a global pandemic that saw the politico-banco cartel once again enriching, with massive bailouts and liquidity injections, the 1%. This has resulted in all-time highs in stock prices, and wall the while the jobs of the working classes (the "doormats") were not simply transferred; they were terminated.
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Saturday, October 17, 2020
Low US Dollar Risky for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Today’s beaten-down US dollar is a major short-term risk for gold. For decades this yellow metal has often inversely mirrored the fortunes of the world’s reserve currency. Dollar trends are important trading cues for highly-leveraged gold-futures speculators, who wield outsized influence over gold prices. So an overdue mean-reversion rebound rally erupting in the US dollar will unleash serious gold selling pressure.
Gold has proven the ultimate universal global money for millennia now, and its US-dollar price American speculators and investors follow is simply these currencies’ exchange rate. So flowing and ebbing dollar levels directly impact prevailing gold prices. Gold generally tends to rally when the dollar weakens, then sell off when it strengthens again. The leading dollar benchmark reveals this powerful inverse correlation.
That is the venerable US Dollar Index, which was launched way back in March 1973. This USDX applies a weighted geometric mean to a basket of major world currencies to track the relative value of the US dollar. The Eurozone countries’ euro, Japan’s yen, and the United Kingdom’s pound sterling dominate the USDX commanding 57.6%, 13.6%, and 11.9% of its total weighting. Three other currencies round it out.
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Friday, October 16, 2020
Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Biden widened his lead over Trump, while gold jumped above $1,900 again.
According to the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, Biden has increased his presidential race advantage. Now, as the chart below shows, he leads by 7 percent.
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Friday, October 16, 2020
Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: John_Mauldin
By Justin Spittler : My friend who’s a novice investor asked for advice recently. He was “bargain hunting” for cheap stocks, and trying to decide between buying Kohl’s (KSS) or ExxonMobil (XOM).
I cringed. “Listen,” I told him. “You’re thinking about this all wrong.”
I get where my friend is coming from. From childhood we’re taught to be financially prudent. To seek bargains and avoid spending money on expensive things.
In most areas of life this is smart advice. Drive a reasonable car, live in a reasonable house, book reasonable vacations with your family. But there’s one big problem.
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Thursday, October 15, 2020
Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
They say that time travels are impossible. But we just went back to the 1960s! At least in the field of the monetary policy. And all because of a new Fed’s framework. So, please fasten your seat belts and come with me into the past and present of monetary policy – to determine the future of gold!At the end of August 2020, the Fed has modified its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy – for the first time since its creation in 2012. As a reminder, the Fed will now target not merely a 2 percent rate of inflation, but an average inflation rate of 2 percent, which allows overshooting after the periods of undershooting. So, the Fed will try to compensate for periods of low inflation with periods of high inflation . Hence, on average , we will see a more accessible monetary policy and higher inflation - Good news for the gold bulls.
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Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Gold and Silver Price Ready For Another Rally Attempt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After nearly three weeks of sideways/downward price action in Gold and Silver, our researchers believe both metals have already set up another breakout/rally attempt after breaching downward resistance (shown as the downward sloping CYAN line). This could be another huge opportunity for precious metals traders as the next move higher should prompt a rally above recent highs. That means a target price level in Gold above $2100 and a target price level in Silver above $30.50.
ARE METALS POISED TO RALLY TO NEW HIGHS SOON?
The deep price retracements recently in both Gold and Silver have come from news events. First, the EU Banking Report that destroyed the market on September 21. Then, just recently, the news that President Trump contracted COVID-19. The resilience in both Gold and Silver near these recent lows suggests demand for metals is still skyrocketing – otherwise, we believe much deeper price lows would have been reached.
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Monday, October 12, 2020
A Big Move In Silver: Watch The Currency Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
The USD/ZAR chart has been a good predictor for silver rallies. Similar to the US Dollar index, but a bit more accurate or precise. Very important silver bottoms tend to coincide with tops of the USD/ZAR chart.
Below, is a chart of silver as compared with the USD/ZAR chart, to demonstrates this fact:
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Sunday, October 11, 2020
Precious Metals and Commodities Comprehensive / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
For the last 2 days our internet has been down which really makes you appreciate this miracle invention. We’ve had intermittent problems through the years that no one has been able to figure out until today. The phone company finally came to the conclusion that there was a tiny defect in their phone line that would only show up from time to time which made the problem so hard to track down. Today they replaced 1/4 of a mile of telephone line which seems to be working. We’ll know in a few days if this fix is going to work which I can already tell is working.
I would like to start out by looking at the long term weekly combo chart for the PM complex we’ve been following since its inception. I’m out of annotations so you’ll have to use your own imagination where the areas that need a trendline or a breakout symbol occurs.
I just wanted to point out that these are massive 4 year reversal patterns that suggests years of bull market price action. A whole lot of energy has now been stored up in these 4 year trading ranges. Big bull markets don’t start from small reversal patterns but the bigger the bottom the bigger the bull market.
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Sunday, October 11, 2020
Gold Stocks Are Cheap, But Not for Long / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth explains why he believes gold stocks are "churning out some serious profits that are likely to just keep getting better."
It's not too late for you to buy gold and gold stocks on the cheap.
If you haven't already, you may want to seriously consider it.
That move might set you up for a run over the next few years that could turn into your single best investment…ever.
You see, gold stocks are churning out some serious profits that are likely to just keep getting better.
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Saturday, October 10, 2020
Gold Miners Ready to Fall Further / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It didn’t take long for the mining stocks to turn south once again. No wonder, given that their breakdown was more than verified.
Additionally, they also got bearish support from gold, the stock market, and the USD Index, which also confirmed their decisive move. For more details, let’s take a closer look at the chart below.
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