Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 06, 2020
It Has Been Decided: Silver Is Going Much Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
The currency markets have just announced what is coming for silver. This was explained in my previous article.
The USD/ZAR ratio has now broken down. This sets silver up to finish the year with a very strong rally:
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Thursday, November 05, 2020
Is Gold the Only US Election Winner? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The elections are behind us. However, the official results are still not definite. What does it mean for gold prices?
Ladies and Gentlemen, the new President of the United States is… still unknown! The election results are not available, as some states are still counting the votes. The race is very balanced, with few states remaining too close to call. At the moment of writing this report, Joe Biden leads the White House race with 253 electoral votes, while Donald Trump has 213 electoral votes. So, Biden is more likely to become the new POTUS . However, with those few states officially still undecided, Trump could still win. Hopefully, we will get some of the results later today, but it might even take several days to count the ballots in some locations.
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Wednesday, November 04, 2020
Gold Price Slides after US Elections, but before Results / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In Monday’s analysis , I wrote that the market situation is likely to become more specific right before, during, and perhaps shortly after the U.S. presidential elections . And by “specific”, I mean that the markets could begin moving against their previous trends.
Well, that’s precisely what we’ve witnessed so far. The overnight volatility is significant as the markets try to estimate the election outcome, with the odds keep changing quickly. Let’s start today’s market examination with the USD Index.
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Wednesday, November 04, 2020
A Golden Election Promise / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth explains why he believes gold will be the biggest winner in the election.
There's no shortage of prognostications or conjecture about the U.S. election.
Of course, everyone has an opinion.
Some like red, some like blue, some like neither.
Last week's volatility in stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is a clear signal that markets are uneasy. They hate uncertainty.
If the election's outcome is less than clear, then volatility will be around for a while, and probably even intensify.
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Tuesday, November 03, 2020
Determining the Crude Oil Price Next Big Move / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil started this week with a bearish price gap and a breakdown below the September and October lows. This is an extremely valuable indication. The black gold seems to have finally decided what the next big move is going to be, and by breaking lower, it effectively “agreed” with our expectations.
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Tuesday, November 03, 2020
As China goes green, Copper market expected to tighten further / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
The most pessimistic forecasts of copper demand, and pricing, during the worst pandemic in 102 years, have failed to materialize.
From a four-year low in March, when the coronavirus slammed into Europe and North America, the red metal used widely in construction, communications, transportation and energy transmission, has mounted a serious comeback.
As of this writing spot copper is trading at $3.08 per pound, compared to around $2.10/lb in mid-March – a gain of 46%. The spot price has stayed above $3.00 since Oct. 8 – which is remarkable considering the reports of impending economic doom, amid a second wave of covid-19 infections in Europe and North America.
The following analysis by AOTH has copper showing no signs of slowing down; in fact, while the copper market was tight before the pandemic began, we expect it to tighten even further, due to a constellation of factors, starting with China.
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Gold Investors Should Look at Past Elections / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Election Day has finally arrived. Who will win, and why gold will remain the biggest winner of them all?
So, today is the day! It's Election Day. For quite some time, national polls indicate that Biden has a significant advantage . He is also polling scarcely close ahead of Donald Trump in key battleground states, but, in some states, the lead has recently narrowed. So, in many places, the race is still too close to call, making them toss-up states. Hence, although according to political pundits, polls, and bets Biden will become the next POTUS, anything could happen .
And we mean - anything. Everyone knows that back in 2016, Hillary Clinton also led in the polls. However, Trump won the election, to everyone’s surprise. Of course, the polling methodology has been improved since. But now, Biden has a much wider advantage than Hillary did in 2016, and he is much more conservative and more moderate in his approach than Clinton (historically, more moderate presidential candidates generally do better in presidential elections).
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Silver Junior Miners Reach Flag Apex Just Before US Elections / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Heading into what will likely become one of the biggest events in American political history on November 3, the US stock markets are holding up quite well on Monday, November 2. My team and I have published a number of articles recently suggesting we believe wild price swings and increased volatility is to be expected before and after the US elections. We have even suggested a couple of stock trades that we believe should do fairly well 60+ days after the elections are complete. Right now, we want to bring your attention to the Silver Junior Miners ETF (SILJ).
The current Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up in SILJ on the following Monthly chart has peaked our attention. Diminishing volume and moderately strong support above the $12 price level suggest key resistance near $15.05 will likely be retested as metals and miners continue to attract safe-haven capital after the elections. The Apex of the Pennant/Flag formation appears to be nearly complete – a breakout or breakdown move is pending. We believe the uncertainty of the elections will prompt a possible breakout (upside) price trend in the near future.
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Sunday, November 01, 2020
Natural Gas Is on the Rise—And Huge Gains Could Be Lurking in This Dead Sector / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: The_Energy_Report
Independent financial analyst Matt Badiali explains why he expects natural gas to rebound and discusses six potential investments.
The oil price gets all the press. The price of a barrel collapsed during the Covid-19 lock down. Companies went bankrupt in droves. Now, the industry turned to mergers to survive.
Investors fled. The sentiment turned awful. No one cares about oil anymore. The future is electric cars…peak demand is right around the corner.
Right or wrong, the oil industry is deep in a bear market. And that brings opportunity.
For example, one unintended consequence to this collapse is a major decline in natural gas production. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, we haven't seen this big a drop in natural gas production since 2008.
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Sunday, November 01, 2020
Gold Stocks Continue To Disappoint / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
Apparently investors don’t tire of hearing the same old thing; and their advisors willingly provide the same questionable advice: “The best way to play this new bull market in gold is to buy gold stocks” or something to that effect. Are gold stocks a better choice than golditself? Let’s find out…
Four years ago, in 2016, I wrote the following:
“This year’s turnaround in gold mining shares had helped to buoy the hopes and dreams of investors who were ‘betting’ that their long, agonizing wait for euphoric, exponential gains is over. They continue to believe that the future for the Gold Mining Industry is quite rosy. Unfortunately, they are probably wrong.” (see Gold Mining Shares Are A Lousy Investment)
Just prior to that article being published, the HUI gold stock index had peaked at almost the 300 mark after tripling in price from the 100 level earlier that year in January.
The rise in share prices of gold stocks outstripped the increase in physical gold prices quite handily. Gold, itself, rose from $1070 to $1370 for a gain of twenty-eight percent. That’s nice, but not nearly so nice as the two-hundred percent gain in gold stocks.
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Saturday, October 31, 2020
Gold Is the Winner of the U.S. Presidential Election / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, says it doesn't matter if the U.S. sees a Red victory or a Blue victory in the presidential election; gold will be the real winner. In this far-ranging interview with Streetwise Reports, he discusses gold's prospects post-election, inflation, stock market performance, criteria to evaluate mining companies, and companies in U.S. Global funds.
Streetwise Reports: Frank, let's begin with gold. After a substantial rise in the price of the metal earlier this year, which went as high as $2,036 an ounce in early August, it has since been trading sideways, consolidating roughly around the $1,900 mark. What effect do you think the U.S. presidential election will have on the price of gold? Do you see different scenarios based on which candidate wins?
Frank Holmes: Well, you can hit the red button or the blue button, but I'm hitting the gold button, no matter which one it is. You have to sit back and look at macro forces and macro themes to understand gold and the drivers of gold.
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Saturday, October 31, 2020
Gold and Silver Prepare For Another Price Advance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to near the November 3rd election day, Precious Metals have continued to trade within a narrow range suggesting price support is staying strong. It is my belief that potential downside risks for Gold and Silver will be relatively short-lived after the election. We believe the broad market decline witnessed on October 26, 2020, where the Dow Jones fell over 700 points, coupled with the fact Gold and Silver barely budged throughout the selloff, suggests support for Precious Metals has reached a “battle line”.
My research team has highlighted the current support and resistance price levels for both Gold and Silver on the charts below. We believe the initial support levels will hold up well throughout the pending election and that an upside breakout in both Gold and Silver are likely outcomes after the elections. Global traders and investors have already likely hedged their portfolios accordingly to attempt to eliminate risks, yet the fear of what is not known is one of the main drivers of appreciation in Precious Metals.
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Saturday, October 31, 2020
Gold Is Likely to Win This Election / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Trump and Biden debated for the second and last time in this campaign. So, who will win, and why gold is likely to be the biggest winner of them all?President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden met for the second and the last debate before the elections. Thankfully, this time things were less chaotic and with far fewer interruptions and insults. Perhaps Trump has acknowledged that his aggressive behavior was a liability and decided to change his approach – especially since this was his final opportunity to alter the presidential campaign dynamics.
However, it might be too late now. According to both nation-wide and state-by-state polls, and market bets, Biden is still in a significant lead (as the chart below shows). Moreover, because of the postal voting, many votes are already locked in, as a record 47 million Americans have already cast their ballots.
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Friday, October 30, 2020
Why a Biden Win will Keep Metals Prices Rocking / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Richard_Mills
Joe Biden’s performance in Thursday night’s presidential debate was solid. The former vice president was combative against Donald Trump and frequently had the billionaire US President on the defensive. Post-debate analysis centered around the question of whether Trump, who is behind in the polls, did enough to convince voters that taking a chance on Biden would not be in their best interests. The consensus was he had not.
At AOTH we want to know what is coming for the world economy, and just as importantly, what is in store for the metals we are invested in. If Biden wins the election, I am extremely bullish on industrial metals and precious metals, in particular gold, silver, copper, zinc, and nickel sulfides.
Why?
The Democrats winning the White House and both Houses of Congress would throw markets into a tizzy, causing investors to clamber for safe havens. Gold is the world’s oldest flight to safety and the logical response to market fear.
Installing a Democrat in the White House would also be good for gold (and silver) because of Biden’s propensity to add to the debt.
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Friday, October 30, 2020
Is Silver the Next Bitcoin? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth compares silver and bitcoin and explains why he believes investors should own both.
At the risk of offending bitcoin or silver investors, I think this is a question worth asking.
I have been researching and following these assets for some time.
In my view, it's not an either-or dilemma. You should simply own both.
I believe silver and bitcoin remain massively undervalued, and that the market fundamentals of both these assets look extremely bullish.
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Thursday, October 29, 2020
Silver: A Conceivable Dead-Cat-Bounce on the Cards / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Silver is not just any industrial metal. Used as money for centuries, much longer than the fiat currencies have been used, with its specific properties that are also widely used in many industries (best conductor of heat and electricity), with crude oil, it is perhaps one of the most versatile commodities.
As far as the white metal is concerned, on September 24 th , we have warned you about the possible temporary rebound.
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Thursday, October 29, 2020
Election May Impact Near-Term Action in Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Metals broke out earlier in the year because there has likely never been so many fundamental reasons to buy gold and silver. We’ve seen economic turmoil, political strife, social unrest, a $3 trillion federal deficit, and a dollar weakened by fiscal and monetary stimulus – all happening at once.
How the markets finish the year will depend on whether these conditions persist.
The near-term bearish scenario for metals would probably have something in common with 2016. Donald Trump wins and investors feel more confident.
They could focus on buying risk assets, and they could be less motivated to buy safe-havens assets.
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Thursday, October 29, 2020
The Most Profitable Way To Play The Gold Boom / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Submissions
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Wednesday, October 28, 2020
Silver Price Minor Dip Possible Before 2nd Major Upleg Starts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and explains why he believes it is one of the best investments for these times.
With hyperinflation looming, silver has to be one of the best investments of these times, especially as it leverages gold's gains. This summer saw a spectacular high volume breakout from the giant base pattern that had been forming for years, as we can see on its latest 13-year chart, which is hardly surprising considering the Fed's white hot money creation. The breakout triggered a sharp run up that resulted in silver becoming heavily overbought in a zone of quite strong resistance, hence the reaction since early August, which is setting it up for the next big run.
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Wednesday, October 28, 2020
Gold Price One Last Dip Likely Then Major Upleg to New Highs / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund takes a look at gold charts and explains why he believes the dollar price of gold will eventually skyrocket.
With a collapse in the dollar and hyperinflation now inevitable, it is clear that the dollar price of gold will eventually skyrocket, and when I say "eventually" I am not talking about in 5 or 10 years time. It is already starting to accelerate away to the upside and that means that the current dip has presented another buying opportunity, not just in gold itself but in silver and precious metals stocks too.
On gold's latest 13-year chart we can see that the giant Bowl pattern has already driven a breakout to new highs in recent months and in this context the minor reaction of recent weeks is a perfectly normal development that unwinds the overbought condition somewhat and rebalances sentiment. The Bowl pattern can also be described as a Cup, and very often a "Handle" forms to complement the Cup before further significant gains are made, which is a period of consolidation that proportion suggests could last a year or two. Should such a Handle now form it would clearly be a source of major annoyance and frustration to investors in the sector as it would mean their holdings would generally go nowhere for a year or two. However, things are deteriorating at such a rapid rate that it is considered most unlikely that gold would get bogged down in this manner.
The ongoing exponential rise in money creation to support a collapsing economy that has been made worse by the virus hysteria and disproportionate reaction of governments around the world means that the purchasing power of fiat most everywhere will decline at an accelerating rate, and since gold is "real money" that holds its value no matter what, it must therefore gain in price to compensate. What could therefore happen instead is that, rather than meander around for ages making a Handle, the steeply rising Bowl boundary generates a dramatic slingshot move higher in gold, which the current setup certainly makes possible, especially as it has just broken out to new highs. Before leaving the 13-year chart note the strong volume driving the advance up the right side of the Bowl and the strong volume indicators all of which indicates that a major bull market phase has begun, and with the 2011 highs having fallen, there is nothing to stop it. It is also interesting to observe how the freak March plunge, when everything was tanking, was contained and reversed by the Bowl boundary.
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