Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, September 11, 2020
Crude Oil – The Bearish Outlook Remains / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil declined quite substantially this week, and it doesn’t look that the decline will be over just yet.
After a given market clearly moves in a certain direction, corrective moves are bound to happen. After all, no market can move in a straight line up or down. But still, this assumption might be misleading in case of the current situation in black gold. Obviously, it is taking a breather right now after declining several dollars. But, that doesn’t mean that any sizeable rebound is going to happen.
As a matter of fact, based on how crude oil behaved before the decline, we believe that it’s going to slide even further.
In today’s globalized and interconnected economy, no market moves completely independently from the rest of the world. Crude oil, as the most versatile commodity in the market, is definitely not an exception.
Friday, September 11, 2020
Crude Oil Breaks Lower – Sparking Fears Of Another Sub $30 Price Collapse / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Breakdown in Crude Oil sparks talk of sub $30 price targets.
- Initial support likely near $32 to $33.
- Predictive Modeling suggests deeper price lows may be reached before November 2020.
Have you been paying attention to Crude Oil recently? Prices have collapsed over -15% from the recent highs near $43.78. You may remember a research article I posted originally in July 2019 suggesting a big breakdown in Crude Oil was going to take place in early 2020 and extreme volatility was likely between February 2020 and April 2020. Our researchers predicted the following within that research article:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 11, 2020
China Unloads Dollars as Gold Tests Support / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Since posting new record highs in early August, the gold market has consolidated above $1,900/oz support.
A close below the $1,900 level would carry bearish implications for the near term.
Alternatively, a move back above $2,000/oz would likely be followed through to the upside with a rally to fresh highs. Silver, in turn, could be expected to run to new multi-year highs above $30/oz.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 08, 2020
Gold & Silver Shine as Fed Targets Bondholders for Capital Losses / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
As the tech-heavy stock market indexes sold off on Thursday, many investors were forced to re-think their positions.
For the past few months, mega cap technology companies like Apple, Amazon, and Tesla have led the market higher. Yesterday they led the market lower.
Now the question is: Where can investors look for leadership going forward?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 08, 2020
Gold Stocks in Correction Mode / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks are mired in correction mode, which isn’t surprising after their mighty post-stock-panic upleg. Huge buying catapulting them higher left this sector extremely overbought. Corrections are normal and healthy after prices get too stretched technically. They eradicate upleg toppings’ excessive greed, rebalancing sentiment. That paves the way for bulls’ next uplegs, and offers great buying opportunities.
The most-popular gold-stock benchmark today is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. It includes the world’s biggest and best gold miners, dwarfing its peers in size. Launched way back in May 2006, GDX’s first-mover advantage has grown insurmountable. This ETF’s $17.9b in net assets this week are running 31.4x larger than its next biggest competitor’s in the 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF space. GDX is king.
Gold stocks have a well-deserved reputation for excessive volatility, which is a key reason they are so alluring. When the stars align right for them, meaning a big and persistent gold upleg, their stock prices skyrocket! We just witnessed that in this sector’s enormous upleg following March’s COVID-19-lockdown-fueled stock panic. The subsequent gold-stock gains were among the largest out of all stock-market sectors.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 08, 2020
The law of long-term time preference and Gold ownership / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“Those who plan, invest and execute long-term win,’ says long-time market analyst R.E. McMaster in A Layman’s Guide to Golden Guidelines for Wise Money Management. “Win-win decisions, looking to the long term with short-term work and sacrifice, are historically the tickets to success in all areas of life – short-term sacrifice for long-term benefits, deferred gratification rather than instant gratification. This is the difference between wealth and poverty, between class and trash. Those who make primarily fear-based, ego-based, selfish, win-lose, lose-lose, emotional and/or short-term decisions as their primary mode of operation in life nearly always end up miserable, often as losers in a comprehensive sense in life. Such people are walking tornadoes to be avoided.” [The Law of Long-Term Time Preference]
Successful investors have a philosophy, usually carefully cultivated, that they rely upon in their investment decisions no matter what happens in the markets in the short-run. Too, successful investors, as R.E. McMaster points out above, are rarely shaken by short-term events and, rarer still, guilty of short-term thinking. USAGOLD has always nurtured the belief that gold should not be purchased principally as a speculative investment, but more as an asset accumulated for long-term wealth preservation in the form of coins and bullion. That, in fact, is a viewpoint it shares with the bulk of its clientele. Thus, when we have a sell-off like what occurred this past month, experienced gold investors usually view such events as buying opportunities and part of a normal, healthy market process.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 08, 2020
Gold Bull Markets: History and Prospects Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Would you like to know one simple way of achieving investment successes and getting rich? That’s great, I will reveal this secret to you – and you even don’t have to click anything! The trick is to find a bull market and go long! And, what a coincidence, gold is right now in the bull market… If you don’t believe, then look at the chart below.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 07, 2020
Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Hope you have all had good August holidays despite the fast materialising Covid-19 second peaks across the world with the United States leading the way by galloping ahead of the rest. Though much of Europe has also taken it's eye off the ball and is fast seeing it's 2nd peaks materialising with the UK managing to fair better largely due to intelligence of it's citizens rather than any actions from our inept government. Though it is still on a rising trend trajectory as new cases continue to climb with the opening of schools and universities set to feed the covid-19 monster going forward.
If the pandemic was not bad enough for August the UK has had atrocious weather to the extent where one wondered if it's better to lose the £1000 or so spent on bookings than to venture out in this miserable weather.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 07, 2020
The Federal Reserve vs. Judy Shelton And Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
Those in favor of Judy Shelton’s approval by Congress, pursuant to her nomination to the Federal Reserve Board Of Governors, should not be surprised by the torrent of criticism directed at her.
A letter published and signed by former Federal Reserve officials and staffers called on the Senate to reject her nomination, stating that “Ms. Shelton’s views are so extreme and ill-considered as to be an unnecessary distraction from the tasks at hand…”
Her “extreme” views were referred to in a general statement of condemnation:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 07, 2020
Fed Dials Up Inflation Target…Own Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth discusses the Fed's inflation target and what that means for gold.
Make no mistake, higher gold prices are coming.
By pulling yet another arrow from its quiver, the Fed's just helped move us closer that target.
The Fed wants inflation, so it's going to get it. Problem is, we the people, will have to live with it.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told us last week they will let inflation run higher than "normal" to make up for stubbornly "below average" inflation for some time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 07, 2020
Does Gold Still Have Plenty of Potential? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
According to the WGC, the latest leg of gold’s 2020 bull run has come too fast, but gold has still potential for further upside.The World Gold Council has recently published a few interesting reports. Let’s analyze them and draw important conclusions for the precious metals investors!
I’ll start with the July Investment Update: “Gold hits record high: sprint or marathon?” about the summer’s rally in gold that elevated the price of the yellow metal to the new record high. According to the WGC, the combination of high uncertainty, easy monetary policy, very low interest rates, positive price momentum, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and fears of higher inflation fueled record flows of 734 tons into gold-backed ETFs in the first half of the year and the gold’s price appreciation:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 07, 2020
Is the Precious Metals Market really Overwhelmed and Chaotic / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Robert_Singer
August 13, the Market Oracle publishes my article on Gold, Silver, the Black Rock and the Twins. I claim something is going on that can’t be explained without knowing what happened in 2015 that changed the precious metals and mankind’s destiny.
I am still waiting to see if Silver tests the $21 resistance but what happened yesterday (August 11) and the next day is perplexing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 06, 2020
Pension Funds Start Looking to Gold to Avert Disaster / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Public and private pension plans face a dual crisis.
The first and most obvious threat to pensioners is that defined-benefit vehicles are severely underfunded. By one estimate, pension systems taken as a whole are $638 billion in the red.
Some are in better shape financially than others. But all pension plans will have to reckon with a second huge challenge going forward.
Namely, they are already entirely unable to meet their stated return objectives by owning conventional “safe” interest-bearing instruments such as Treasury bonds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 06, 2020
Fed Embraces Higher Inflation. Will It Embrace Gold, Too? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Fed adopts a new strategy that opens the door for higher inflation. The change is fundamentally positive for gold prices.So, it happened! In line with market expectations, the Fed has changed its monetary policy framework into a more dovish one! This is something we warned our Readers in our last Fundamental Gold Report:
the Fed could change how it defines and achieves its inflation goal, trying, for example, to achieve its inflation target as an average over a longer time period rather than on an annual basis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 03, 2020
Platinum Tremd Forecast to Follow Gold Price Higher / Commodities / Platinum
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Platinum may be setting up in a technical pattern that is similar to the end of 2001/early 2002.
- Platinum could rally more than 300%, somewhere near $3,450 or higher.
- This might push Gold above $7,500 an ounce and may push silver somewhere north of $125 per ounce.
- Rally hinges on platinum breaking out above $1,050.50.
Platinum may be setting up in a technical pattern that is similar to the end of 2001/early 2002. At that time, Gold had already begun to rally above $340 and Platinum had rallied to levels above $600. Then, while Gold continued to rally, Platinum contracted to price levels near $400 on diminishing volume. Once that contraction was complete, Platinum began and upside price move with stronger volume levels which lasted almost seven years – reaching a peak above $2,300. Could the same setup be happening right now?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 03, 2020
What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth looks at the factors behind the movements in the gold and silver markets. Gold's retreated from a record high above $2,000, and silver's off its own seven-year highs near $30.
Is that cause for concern? I doubt it.
These have been dramatic surges to new levels, brought on by a combination of low interest rates, historic money-printing raising the specter of inflation, a softer U.S. dollar, and of course a global pandemic.
But that doesn't mean gold and silver have to continue higher in a straight line.
Instead, these gains have been so strong that a period of retracement and consolidation are not only expected, they're crucial to the continued health of this precious metals bull market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 30, 2020
FOMC Minutes Push Gold Price Down / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
July FOMC minutes hit the gold prices. But what’s next for the yellow metal?The key event last week was the publication of the minutes from the FOMC meeting in July. After their release, the U.S. dollar jumped, while the price of gold dropped, as the chart below shows. Why? Well, the Fed officials disappointed investors who expected some clues about upgrading the U.S. central bank’s forward guidance in September. In other words, the Fed failed to provide any new guidance as to the interest rate expectations.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 30, 2020
Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Elliott Wave International's analysts have posited that the next big global monetary event will be deflation, not inflation.
The writer of an August 18 Telegraph article also sees "powerful deflationary winds."
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 28, 2020
Gold Miners and Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
I want to try to answer a subscriber’s question as clearly as I can because it really does seem to be more confusing than it actually is. It’s always made sense to me but I understand there is a promotion machine out there selling viewpoints and in the gold sector especially, it is often wrong-headed, lazy analysis using tired assumptions.
Read full article... Read full article...“I do have a couple of questions that relate to gold/gold miner stocks that I can’t seem to get my head around. No hurry on an answer, just when you get time: From time to time, you have mentioned that inflation would send the gold bugs scurrying for cover. I had always thought that gold would rise during inflationary periods so I can’t seem to get why inflation would not be good for gold. And on the middle ground; how would gold likely act if we experience a prolonged period of stagflation?”
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Precious Metal Bullion Markets Catch a Breath / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Gold bugs may finally be taking their summer (stay)vacation. After months of frenetic activity in the bullion markets, physical buying and selling slowed a bit last week.
The respite, if it persists, could be welcome news for investors who have been frustrated by product scarcity and higher premiums.
The COVID-19-associated economic troubles have not been resolved, but those stories aren’t commanding the level of attention they did in recent weeks.
Read full article... Read full article...