Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, April 29, 2016

Gold Stocks: Extended but More Upside Potential / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

What a move in the gold stocks! The sector has refused to correct for more than a few days at a time. All weakness has been bought as a wall of worry has been built and the sector emerges from a historic low that could be on par with the 1942 low in the stock market. I thought the Federal Reserve statement or reaction to it (along with the market’s overbought condition) might cause the sector to correct this week. Instead, GDX and GDXJ powered higher and have gained roughly 13% for the week.

Friday, April 29, 2016

Did Shanghai Just Blow a Hole in the Old Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_J_Kosares

I did not want the day to pass without posting a few words on gold’s significant push to the upside, now trading just shy of the $1300 mark. To be sure, the dual positions with respect to rates on the part of the Bank of Japan (to stand pat) and the Federal Reserve (to remain ultra-dovish) played a role in the dollar’s recent weakness and gold’s strength. Those determinants though, in my view, are only part of the story, and the few percentage point drop in the dollar against the yen over the past week is really not enough to justify a nearly $60 rise in the price of gold over the past five trading sessions.  The bigger determinant has been China’s underpinning of the gold price on two different occasions over the past week after it had taken a major turn to the downside in New York trading.

Friday, April 29, 2016

Silver Miners Strong in Grim Q4 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners showed impressive fundamental strength during 2015’s grim fourth quarter.  That was the worst silver suffered in many years, a perfect-storm trough with major secular lows fueling extreme bearish sentiment.  Traders feared this entire industry faced an existential threat, so they fled in terror from silver stocks.  But silver miners’ strong operational performances aced that severe trial with flying colors.

Q4’15 may seem like ancient history now, but it was exceedingly important for the entire precious-metals realm.  Gold slumped to a miserable 6.1-year secular low in mid-December, on the day after the Fed hiked rates for the first time in 9.5 years.  That was wildly irrational based on market history, which has proven gold thrives during Fed-rate-hike cycles with big average gains.  Gold hadn’t seen lower prices since Q4’09.

Friday, April 29, 2016

Is Silver a better bet than Gold in the Near Future? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Last week, the beginning of April 18^th, 2016, silver was on fire, rising sharply and forcing ‘Wall Street’ to take note of its move, though, many investors believe that gold and silver are one and the same, one can hold either in your portfolio and earn the same returns? the truth is far from that!

In reality, though both silver and gold are considered precious metals and over the long-term, they have a high degree of ‘correlation’ in their movements, but in the short-term, for the active investor, both offer opportunities at different times.

Friday, April 29, 2016

What's Going on with Gold? - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Savage

Gold is in the final phase of the baby bull rally. This is the stage that causes maximum pain for shorts that were unable to recognize that the bear market is over, or tried to sell short (I warned and warned traders not to short a baby bull).

This is also the stage that causes maximum anxiety for longs who aren’t in the market. This is the time when the bull tries to get as many traders as possible to panic in at the top so as to catch them in the first reaction.

Friday, April 29, 2016

How to Use the CoT Report in Gold Investing? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The CoT report enables investors to peek behind the scenes of the gold futures market and to better understand the psychology of the marketplace and, thus, get a better idea of futures moves on the market. This is because the COT report shows the net long or short positions of different types of traders. The knowledge of how traders are positioned is useful, but what really matters are changes in their positions. Knowing that, for example, non-commercials have 175,000 contracts long is meaningless without the supplementary information whether they are accumulating more or starting to unload contracts over time.

Friday, April 29, 2016

Gold “Chart of The Decade” – Maths Suggest $10,000 Per Ounce Says Rickards / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

James Rickards, economic and monetary expert, joined Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua on Tuesday to discuss the gold “chart of the decade”, his new book “The New Case for Gold,” why gold is money and why gold is going to $10,000/oz in the coming years.

Friday, April 29, 2016

Are We or Are We Not in a New Gold Bull Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan has examined the charts and says that if we are in a new bull market, prices in both gold and gold equities should begin to pull back and consolidate soon.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

The Next Battleground for Gold Will Be At 1550 If the Cup and Handle Formation Completes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jesse

If and when gold breaks out of this cup and handle formation, which is a matter of probability and not certainty, the next real battleground in a new bull market will be around $1550. One of the more interesting variables will be the manner of any breakout, and the 'time' it takes to reach a minimum measuring objective.

This is quite appropriate as 1550 marks the major support level for the channel in which gold had been moving prior to the recent bear market.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Silver: The “Five Year Plan” and the Great Leap Forward / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

Five years ago paper silver contracts on the COMEX hit a multi-decade high over $48 on April 29, 2011.

At the end of April 2016 the silver price is bouncing around $17, down about 65% from its April 2011 high.  The low occurred at about $13.60 in December of last year, when paper silver prices were down about 70% from their April 2011 high.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

A Gold Revaluation Could Transform Your Financial Status - Overnight / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Nick_Barisheff

David Smith writes: As we move through 2016, the Horsemen of the geopolitical, economic, and social apocalypse are on the march.

China burns through its currency reserves as billions in yuan flee the mainland for safe harbor. Japan prints mountains of yen debt in an effort to create inflation - and thereby the conscious devaluation of its citizens' purchasing power.

Saudi Arabia's gamble of cutting oil prices to the bone in an effort to break the back of the shale oil industry is becoming so costly that it may have to sell a portion of mighty Aramco to outside investors, while keeping secret the amount of its U.S. debt.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Gold Bullion vs Gold Miners / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Nick_Barisheff

For thousands of years, gold has been used as money, a store of wealth, fought over and sought after. Over the last 45 years, Western populations have had a mixed impression of gold. A minority of the population understands that gold is a monetary asset that should be held as wealth insurance. A larger percentage of the population is confused about gold because of mainstream sources of information. Many people consider gold a risky investment when in fact gold bullion is not an investment at all, but rather money itself. Just like any fiat currency held in a vault, gold does not pay interest or dividends. Investors often look upon gold mining companies in the same light as physical gold bullion. Gold mining shares are investments, and can be good tactical investments from time to time. However, the characteristics of gold bullion and gold miners are very different. In some ways, those differences are similar to the difference between an insurance policy and shares of an insurance company.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

HUI Gold Stocks Update...Beautiful Chartology / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

Below is a two year daily chart for the HUI which I first showed you when the HUI broke above the double bottom hump to start its bull market. I call this chart the reverse symmetry chart as shown by the red arrows. How a stock comes down, especially in a strong move, will reverse symmetry back up over the same area. It's more of an art than a science. You can see the rally off of the mid January low found a little resistance at 182 before it broke through.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Why Gold Bugs Need to Stop Listening to The Fear Mongers and Start Thinking for a Change / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Sol_Palha

He that can have patience can have what he will. ~ Benjamin Franklin

We are still not convinced that Gold is fully out of the woods. Peter Schiff is busy telling everyone that it was a bad idea to have sold Gold in 2011, we beg to differ for the trend indicates otherwise, and so does the price of Gold. He is coming out with scary scenarios though they are not as grandiose as James Sinclair's scenario that calls for Gold to move to $50,000 an ounce. Even, when we dream we find it hard to envision such a price, so it is interesting that he can come up with such targets without being under the influence of some strong medicine.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Gold More Productive Than Cash?! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Axel_Merk

Is gold, often scoffed at as being an unproductive asset, more productive than cash? If so, what does it mean for asset allocation?

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Crude Oil: See How Elliott Waves Prepare You for Trend Changes - Video / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

"Trend is your friend"? Yes -- but how do you know when a trend may end? Watch.

Back in February, when crude oil prices fell to $26 a barrel, you may remember a chorus of mainstream opinions suggesting that it had further to fall. Yet, oil prices shot up 60% since then.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Long Awaited Gold Price Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jim_Willie_CB

For the last year or more, not an elephant, not a gorilla, but a dragon has been found at the dinner table. Its breath has just made everybody at the table totally bald with some scorched red faces. Now all are looking at each other, wondering who will first mention the bald guys at the table. The Shanghai levers are finally functioning, starting with the Gold Fix and continuing with the RMB-based gold futures contract (which delivers gold metal oddly). The game is finally on, as in the climax chapter to the End Game. Paper gold is totally disconnected from fundamentals. The paper charade is as impressive as it is corrupt. Its enemy is physical gold and related demand. Silk Road nations have strong gold demand, which will disrupt the entire geopolitical balance of power, extending from trade and non-USDollar platforms. The West has the corner on toilet paper used in the gold market. The United States has the corner on the USDollar, used in fraud and illicit tolls.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

How The Credit Markets Will Blow Up During The Coming Silver Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

During the previous silver bull market, interest rates and silver moved in the same direction (up). This makes sense, given the fact that silver and interest rates move together in the long run – for the last 100 years at least.

The current silver bull market (since 2001) has seen a big divergence between silver prices and interest rates. Below, is a comparison of interest rates and silver prices since 1962:

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $48.56 and initial downside target at $35.24) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil increased after the market's open, approaching Thursday's high, the commodity gave up some gains in the following hours weakened by the strengthening U.S. dollar. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude closed another day under the resistance line. Will it be strong enough to stop oil bulls in the coming days?

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Madness in the Crimex Gold and Silver Trading Pits / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Michael Ballanger Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses effects of the Bank of Japan's actions on the U.S. dollar, silver and gold

The "big story" circulating around the blogosphere yesterday and last evening was a paper authored by Pimco' s "strategist" Harley Bassman that essentially opined that "the Fed should unleash a massive Fed gold purchase program that could echo a Depression-era effort that effectively boosted the U.S. economy." Well, isn't that original? Back in 2013 I reviewed Michael Lewis' follow-up to "The Big Short," a brilliant piece of work entitled "Boomerang—Travels in the New Third World" where Lewis interviews a Deputy Finance Minister at the German Bundesbank who told Lewis that because Germany had 3,390.6 tonnes of gold, its entire government debt was "covered." At the time, I was listening to the audiobook while on a treadmill and I actually had a Eureka moment and immediately texted myself a reminder to make that the central theme of the weekend note to clients, which I did.