Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

How to Use the CoT Report in Gold Investing?

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016 Apr 29, 2016 - 03:24 PM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Commodities

The CoT report enables investors to peek behind the scenes of the gold futures market and to better understand the psychology of the marketplace and, thus, get a better idea of futures moves on the market. This is because the COT report shows the net long or short positions of different types of traders. The knowledge of how traders are positioned is useful, but what really matters are changes in their positions. Knowing that, for example, non-commercials have 175,000 contracts long is meaningless without the supplementary information whether they are accumulating more or starting to unload contracts over time.


Therefore, let's analyze the long-term trends in traders' positioning and the link between them and the gold prices. The chart below shows the historical price of gold and the net (i.e., long minus short) positions of gold traders in Comex taken from the legacy version of the report.

Figure 1: The price of gold (yellow line, right axis, London P.M. fixing), the net position of commercials (red line, left axis), the net position of non-commercials (green line, left axis) and the net position of non-reportables (orange line, left axis) from 1986 to March 8, 2016.

CoT Legac and Gold Price

What immediately strikes us is that commercials (red line) are usually net short - they are mostly hedging - while non-commercials (green line) are usually long, because they use their positions for speculative purposes and take the opposite sides of the trades (they offset the price hedging requirements of commercials). Actually, the line reflecting the non-commercials' net positions mirror the line representing the commercials' net position. Therefore, the non-commercials are positively correlated with the gold prices, while the commercials move inversely with the price of gold. The former are trend-followers. They increase their net long position when prices rise and scale it back when prices decrease. For example, when a 2000s bull market continued, non-commercials were adding more net long trades. Consequently, close to the end of that rally, they had their most bullish positions. In other words, non-commercials are generally on the right side of the market, but they tend to become overextended near peaks and bottoms.

Conversely, commercials actively buy (reducing their short positions) when the market goes down and actively sell when the market goes up (increasing their short positions). For example, commercials were systematically adding short contracts during the 2000s bull market.

Regarding non-reportables, or small speculators, they typically move together with non-commercials, or large speculators (and, just like them, tend to be wrong at critical turning points) - this is why they often form one category of "speculators". Given their relative weak position on the market (low number of open contracts) we will not analyze their behavior in a more detailed way. Instead, we will take a look at the chart showing the price of gold and disaggregated trading positions in the Comex.

Figure 2: The price of gold (yellow line, right axis, London P.M. fixing), the net position of producers (red line, left axis), the net position of money managers (green line, left axis), the net position of swap dealers (purple line, left axis) and the net position of other reportables (blue line, left axis) from 2006 to March 8, 2016.

CoT Dissagregated and Gold Price

As one can see, the money managers (green line) and other reportables (blue line) are usually net long and tend to follow gold prices (although it is more clearly visible in the case of money managers), while the producers (red line) and swap dealers (purple line) are generally net short and move in the opposite direction to the gold prices (although it is more clearly visible in case of producers).

How to use the CoT report for trading purposes? Investors can, for example, monitor speculators (either large or small, but large should be better), as they tend to be most bullish just prior to significant price tops and most bearish before the significant price bottoms. Given that the net positions of commercials reflects net positions of non-commercials, investors may also watch them, as they tend to be most bearish just prior to significant price tops and most bullish just prior to significant price bottoms. This is why data from the CoT reports can be used as a sentiment indicator in the gold market. However, investors should use it just as such, not as a timing indicator, as there are no absolute benchmarks of bullishness or bearishness which could trigger investment decisions (for example, commercials are often on the long side of the market before a major rally begins). Moreover, the correlation between commercials, non-commercials and gold prices may break down during the small lag, so there is a risk of significant changes in positioning between the period covered by the report and the date of its publication. Moreover, there is another - much simpler - way to see when gold is overbought or oversold without examining the CoT numbers. Therefore, using them might be helpful, but not necessary when using tools that help detecting the same situations.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would you like to know more about the structure of the gold market, we invite you to read the March Market Overview report. If you’re interested in the detailed price analysis and price projections with targets, we invite you to sign up for our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. If you’re not ready to subscribe at this time, we invite you to sign up for our gold newsletter and stay up-to-date with our latest free articles. It's free and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieron Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in