Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Fake Moves in Bitcoin Price / Commodities / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: short speculative positions, target at $153, stop-loss at $515.

Remember how Ethereum was touted as the system which could replace Bitcoin and its price skyrocketed? Now, the system is back down after Ether (the currency of the system) lost more than 50% of its value, we read on CoinDesk:

While bitcoin has seen range-bound prices, ether plunged more than 56% during the week ending 15th April at 12:00 UTC, according to Poloniex figures.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Complex Reverse Symmetry / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

In mid January of this year it looked as if another leg down was in store for the precious metals complex. Most of the precious metals stock indexes broke down to a new bear market low which I was expecting, as I was looking for that one last capitulation move to shake out the last of the bulls. There was a pretty symmetrical H&S consolidation pattern that had developed at the lows going back to August of last year. The setup looked perfect for one last move down to end the bear market but that didn't happen. Instead we got a two day shakeout below the previous low which ended exactly three months ago today.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

China Gold Bullion Yuan Trading To Boost Power In Gold and FX Markets – End Manipulation? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

China launched yuan denominated gold bullion trading today in a move that will further boost its power in the global gold and fx markets. Critics of the existing pricing mechanisms hope that it will lead to increased transparency and may end price manipulation.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), the world’s largest physical gold exchange, launched a yuan-denominated benchmark price today in Shanghai, a measure that will benefit both China’s domestic gold market and the global precious metals market.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

A Powerful Signal for the Coming Silver Price Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

The silver price and the US Dollar/South African Rand exchange rate (USD/ZAR) have a very interesting relationship that goes back a long way. Due to the nature of this relationship, I have found the USD/ZAR chart to be a good tool for determining a silver bottom.

In Jan 1980, when silver peaked at about $50, the USD/ZAR was trading at around 0.817. Today, the USD/ZAR rate is trading at about 14.366 - about 17.6 times higher than the Jan 1980 rate, whereas silver is trading at $16.2 - almost three times lower than the Jan 1980 high.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Gold and Crude Oil - What Can We Infer from This Relationship? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although the world's largest oil-producing countries met this weekend in Doha, they failed to reach a deal to freeze output at Jan levels as Saudi deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman sustained earlier statement that Saudi Arabia would freeze the level of its oil production only if all other major producers (including Iran) did the same. Although Iran supported the freeze, the country didn't agree to cut production until it raises its output to around 4 million barrels per day (to the pre-sanctions levels). What does it mean for crude oil? In our opinion, such developments suggest a renewed battle for crude market share, which would likely translate into lower values of the commodity in the coming days or even weeks. Will our interesting ratios confirm this scenario? Let's jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out.

Monday, April 18, 2016

7 Gold And Silver Mining Investment Tips For 2016 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: InvestingHaven

This article is based on a live webinar which was hosted by InvestingHaven.com on Wednesday April 13th during which 15 questions where answered by panelist Rob Tovell, market analyst at RobTovell.com and investor/trader for 4 decades covering all markets including precious metals, and panelist John Newell who manages the “Global Precious Metals Program” fund at Field House Capital. The first part of the webinar was focused on gold and silver mining questions, and the second part about the gold/silver price as well as gold futures market.

Monday, April 18, 2016

The Fed Rapidly Losing Control, Creating an Inflationary Storm / Commodities / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed is rapidly losing control.

Core inflation has already broken above 2% despite a complete collapse in commodity prices (the cost of living for many household items).

Monday, April 18, 2016

Negative Interest Rates May Be Positive for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: John_Browne

As 2015 came to a close, most investors believed that 2016 would be a year dominated by a series of Fed rate hikes. That conviction solidified in mid-October when comments from multiple Fed officials convinced many that prior hints that the Fed would stay at zero percent rates had been false alarms. The Fed delivered on its promise in mid-December by actually raising rates by 25 basis points. Based on this, gold declined by 10% from October 14 to the end of the year, nearly matching its six year low. Many on Wall Street thought the declines would continue into 2016. They were decidedly wrong.

Monday, April 18, 2016

Is Deutsche Bank's Gold Manipulation The Main Scam Or Just A Side-Show? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: John_Rubino

For years now, the easiest way to finesse a debate over whether precious metals markets are manipulated has been to say, "well, if they're not manipulated they're the only market that isn't."

That was unsatisfying, though, because as the big banks got caught scamming their customers on interest rates, mortgage bonds, forex and commodities trades, those markets (presumably) began to operate more-or-less honestly. Gold and silver, meanwhile, kept right on acting strangely, for instance plunging in the middle of the night on no news but massive futures volume, to the detriment of honest investors and traders who naively bet their capital on fundamentals. The (already huge) amount of money thus stolen from gold bugs kept rising.

Monday, April 18, 2016

Gold Mining Stocks Reach First Resistance Target but Continue to Outperform Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The gold stocks have been on a tear lately as they continue to move higher in defiance of the bearish calls of numerous pundits and traders. After trading lower mid week and filling Monday's gap, the miners are set to close the week with some strength. While the miners are overbought and could remain below resistance for a little while, their strong outperformance of Gold remains a comforting signal for bulls.

Sunday, April 17, 2016

CRB, Gold, The Fed has Unleashed Inflation / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Graham_Summers

And it wants more of it.

From mid-2014 until early 2016, commodities as an asset class, collapsed some 45%.

Saturday, April 16, 2016

Silver Price "Damp Squib" Rally of 2016 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Clive_Maund

The combination of silver having arrived at a short-term target, with bearish looking candlesticks appearing, gold completing a Head-and-Shoulders top and latest COTs for both gold and silver being at the sort of extreme readings characteristic of a top, all point to silver reversing to the downside here.

On its 6-month chart we can see how silver's sharp advance over the past week or so has brought it up to a trend channel target, where the advance has run into trouble, with bearish looking candlesticks in recent days suggesting that it will soon drop away again.

Saturday, April 16, 2016

Gold Price What Breakout? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Clive_Maund

The latest gold COTs are out and they are an absolute horror story, with Commercial short and Large Spec long positions having ramped up to multi-year extremes, which we can take to mean that the dollar is not going to crash its support in the 93 area and will instead rally.

While PM stocks have broken higher, gold has stubbornly refused to and has been dropping back in recent days to complete the Right Shoulder of what is believed to be a Head-and-Shoulders top, as we can see on its 6-month chart below. Once it breaches the neckline of the pattern it should plunge. This will not be a surprising outcome, as it is very rare for a parabolic blowoff move such as we saw earlier to be followed by continued advance.

Saturday, April 16, 2016

Stronger Reasons For Buying Gold/Silver Right Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_Noonan

Almost all of those in the precious metals community are avid consumers of news and statistics pertaining to gold and silver [PMs], such has how many tonnes of gold are being purchased by China, mostly. How much gold does China really own, certainly far more than the "official figures" provided by the Chinese, and certainly far less than that country admits.

Then there are the ongoing published figures of how many gold and silver coins that are being purchased each month, one record month leading to another. "Demand is going through the roof!!" Coupled with those figures are mining supplies v world demand, especially bullish for silver, almost beyond imagination. Added to the mix are the COMEX and LMBA, paper perpetrators of fraud, ruled by the moneychangers and not by the exchanges themselves. These now illegitimate exchanges no longer function as exchanges where one can take delivery on the contract[s] owned.

Friday, April 15, 2016

Gold Stocks Double, To Double / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold-mining stocks surged higher this past week after breaking free from their high consolidation.  This newest upleg catapulted gold stocks to a doubling in less than 3 months, a remarkable world-leading performance.  But despite its quick doubling, this red-hot sector still has another easy doubling left to come from here.  Gold-mining stocks still remain greatly undervalued relative to prevailing gold prices.

Gold stocks’ whipsawing journey so far this year has been nothing short of incredible.  Back on January 19th, less than 3 months ago, the flagship HUI gold-stock index plunged to 100.7.  Those levels were utterly astounding, as that was the HUI’s lowest close since July 2002.  Back then gold was trading near $305, and had yet to exceed $329 in its young secular bull.  Revisiting those levels felt like a gold-stock apocalypse.

Friday, April 15, 2016

Gold Price Suppression, Paul Volcker and the Vatican Bank - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Mario_Innecco

Transcript Excerpt: hi it's Friday April 15th 2016 I like to talk about today something that you know
years ago and still nowadays to some extent is still considered conspiracy
theory in my opinion is considered the truth by there is a truth that's
uncomfortable when the establishment and the corporate media which is owned by
the establishment you know and big banks and corporations and is the subject of
precious metals manipulation you know especially gold and silver as well of
course and a lot of people you know that don't know much about money and the
nature of money in the history of the monetary system when you tell them that
you know gold is manipulated or suitors manipulated you know they don't

Friday, April 15, 2016

Silver's Bearish Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Silver moved sharply higher recently along with mining stocks, but unlike the latter, the white metal continued to show strength even on Thursday by holding up well despite gold's and mining stocks' decline. What does this tell us?

It tells us that a decline is very likely to be seen shortly. Let's see why (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Friday, April 15, 2016

Silver Up 5.6%; Gold Down 1% as Deutsche Bank Settles Gold and Silver Manipulation Suits / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

Silver prices have surged 5.6% this week, while gold is down 1% in dollar terms, 1.5% in sterling terms but flat in euro terms. Gold appears to be consolidating after the recent gains and the bounce in stocks this week is likely leading to traders taking profits.

Friday, April 15, 2016

How Do the Gold ETFs Really Work? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

To understand the relationship between the gold ETFs’ inventories and the price of gold it is necessary to grasp how the ETFs work. As we already know, the aim of gold ETFs is to replicate the performance of gold. How do they achieve that? Surely, they purchase and hold the gold bullion (at least SDPR Gold Trust claims to do it, since many other gold ETFs hold gold futures contracts rather than bullion, but it does change the underlying mechanism at work). This is basically why the ETFs net assets value (NAV) tracks the price of gold so well. What is NAV? It is the sum of funds’ assets less any liabilities, divided by the number of outstanding shares. Assume that there are 1000 shares of an ETF, which holds 100 ounces of gold. If the price of gold is $1200 per ounce, the NAV amounts to $120. Since SPDR Gold Trust holds only gold bullion, the net assets value of a GLD share will naturally move by the same percentage as the gold prices (regardless of the absolute level of gold inventories).

Friday, April 15, 2016

Gold Miners Arrived At Huge Resistance After An Incredible Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: InvestingHaven

Gold is definitely story of 2016, at least so far. The yellow metal rose some 25% in the first quarter. That rally was impressive, but the performance of precious metals miners was even better, as the rally of most gold miners surpassed 100%  in 2016. Incredible.

Is this the time to enter the gold mining space or stay on the sidelines?