Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Silver Price and The Winds of Complacency / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Not even a surprise Presidential election result could sever the bonds that have held prices in check for more than 5 years.
From a mainstream media perspective, the financial system is a neat little house of cards. Made to look like sturdy boxes on a hilltop; institutional pillars …. that are all the same. The cards are carefully controlled and non-random. They are rigged.
Precious metals will always be rigged to some degree.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Silver and the Train Wreck / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
The U.S. National Debt is a “train-wreck.” The official debt is nearly $20 trillion and the unfunded liabilities are $100 – $200 trillion, depending on who is counting.
- It can never be repaid. Implications are dire.
- Official debt doubles about every 8 years. Does $80 trillion of official debt in the early 2030s sound viable?
- Per Krugman there is no problem. Consider the source.
- Denial is not a winning strategy, but it does prolong the period before the crash.
- The losers in the crash will probably not be the financial or political elite. That leaves the rest of us.
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
OPEC’s Bearish Report Provides Little Hope For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
Just one day after the IEA warned the world could drown in oil if production does not fall beneath demand sometime soon, OPEC released a new market whammy, offering up the cartel’s production figures, which largely jive with figures reported by the IEA yesterday: OPEC has increased its oil production.
OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report revealed daily oil production for the cartel of 33.64 million barrels for October—up by 240,000 bpd on September—largely confirming the IEA’s report, although the international authority’s figure was a bit higher at 33.83 million bpd.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Gold Mining Shares Are a Lousy Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
This year’s turnaround in Gold Mining shares had helped to buoy the hopes and dreams of investors who were ‘betting’ that their long, agonizing wait for euphoric, exponential gains is over. They continue to believe that the future for the Gold Mining Industry is quite rosy. Unfortunately, they are probably wrong.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Gold Commitments of Traders / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
No wonder gold got clocked like it did!
Hedge funds were actually busy adding more longs and covering shorts over the past week’s reporting period. As soon as those downside support levels were taken out after the election results were digested, gold bulls were getting mauled in a big way.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Trump Won. Here’s what YOU should do next / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
A lot of people are in shock this morning…But the election of Donald Trump didn't shock me.
For the past few weeks, months even, I've had a feeling he would win.
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Monday, November 14, 2016
Gold Prices Have Overreacted To The US Election / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
To say it has been a turbulent week in markets would be a dramatic understatement. The moves around the US election were nothing short of incredible. We wrote last week about fading a risk off move over the election, and whilst we expected market nerves to calm after an initial period of uncertainty, we were completely blindsided by the pace and magnitude of the reversal. Nowhere are we more surprised than in the yellow metal’s reaction to the result. Not only do we view it as an overreaction, but actually view the gold prices as significantly undervalued in the current environment.
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Monday, November 14, 2016
This Past Week in Gold, Silver and Copper / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a break in copper, as well as recent movements in the gold and silver markets.
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Sunday, November 13, 2016
Bonds, Commodities and Stocks / Commodities / Financial Markets 2016
Bonds – this past week saw one of the largest weekly selloffs in decades. After finally reaching negative rates in much of the world, has the 36 year bond bubble finally popped?
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Sunday, November 13, 2016
Krugman Gets His Alien Invasion – And Gold Bugs Get Paradise / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Nobel Prize winning economist and uber-liberal New York Times columnist Paul Krugman likes to illustrate his philosophy by noting that the threat of an alien invasion would help the economy by stimulating government spending.
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Saturday, November 12, 2016
Copper Price Forecast – Is Copper Ready To Start A New Bull Market In 2016? / Commodities / Copper
We have covered the copper market extensively in recent weeks. As the price of copper has truly gone balistic this week, it justifies another commentary with our view on where exactly copper stands, and where it can go from here. In other words, is the copper price forecast that bullish that it suggests a new bull market has started in 2016?
MarketWatch is one of the few media outlets that provided some (positive) coverage on copper today. Their article implicitly suggests a bullish copper price forecast for the remainder of 2016: “Copper futures, meanwhile, saw a weekly climb of nearly 11%, which was the largest in over five years, as traders bet that policies expected to be pursued by Republican Donald Trump’s administration could feed demand for industrial metals.” Though fundamental data, as brought forward in their piece, does not carry too much value in our opinion, we agree with their viewpoint.
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Saturday, November 12, 2016
The Future Price Of Gold Will Drop Below $1000 In 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
As the price of gold and silver came down sharply, many investors are asking what the future price of gold will be. Although we do not pretend to have a crystal ball, we observe sufficient signals in the charts to make a make a call about the future price of gold into 2017.
In general, the precious metals market has turned very sour. Gold registered it largest loss on a weekly basis since it crashed in 2013. Moreover, gold and silver miners, said to lead the precious metals complex, have truly crashed this week.
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Saturday, November 12, 2016
A Good Time To Be Buying Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
There's a lot going on in the world - from Trump being elected in the U.S. to turmoil in the middle east, the China Sea and Turkey, Russia is flexing it’s still considerable might, North Korea’s flinging it’s nukes helter skelter, Japan’s rearming, disease runs rampant and fear escalates about virus mutation, there’s shortages of fresh water with many rivers not reaching their former endpoint and of course climate change is rearing its head to destabilize natural rhythms or cycles. It’d be hard to go back in history and pick a period of time when things weren’t so combustible.
Your author believes gold and silver have never been better safe-haven investments. Inflation, world events, diversification
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Friday, November 11, 2016
Gold, Miners Under Trump / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
Donald Trump’s epic underdog victory climaxing the US presidential race was radically unexpected by the great majority of the world. Equally if not more surprising was the subsequent days’ market reaction. Stock markets, gold, and gold-mining stocks did exactly the opposite of what was universally forecast for a Trump win. This has left contrarian traders wondering how gold and gold stocks will likely fare under Trump.
Personally I’m thrilled and filled with hope for America with Donald Trump being our next president! We desperately needed someone to overthrow Washington’s stranglehold on our lives. In both our monthly and weekly newsletters published before Trump’s apparent upset, I took the contrarian stance explaining why Trump had far greater odds of winning than widely assumed. The stock markets predicted a Trump win too!
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Friday, November 11, 2016
Japanese Tales of Common Insanity and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Einstein allegedly once claimed that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. It turns out that central bankers are really insane. Their loose, unconventional monetary policy has not worked in Japan for the last quarter-century, but it did not prevent the Bank of Japan from adopting zero interest rates targets for ten-year Japanese government bonds and from the commitment from overshooting its inflation target. But let’s leave the analysis of the central bankers’ denial of reality to psychologists and focus on the short summary of the Japanese economy in the last quarter-century. Such an analysis would outline the necessary context for the examination of the relationship between the BoJ’s actions, the USD/JPY exchange rate and gold.
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Thursday, November 10, 2016
Gold Just Waiting on the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Gold is resisting the bounce in the dollar, as it has done in the past. Once the dollar is ready to roll over into an intermediate cycle low gold will be ready to fly.
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Thursday, November 10, 2016
Uncertainty Drives Central Bank Gold Purchases / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Dedollarization and Uncertainty drive Central Bank Demand for Gold
- Central banks added 81.7t to their gold reserves in the third quarter
- Total central banks purchases in the year-to-date reach 271.1t.
- Fellow-SCO member Kazakhstan and Belarus also had to holdings
- 90% of reserve managers intend to increase or maintain gold reserves.
- “The case for gold remains compelling for reserve managers” state WGC
- Unconventional monetary policies will underpin gold demand in coming years.
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Trump to Send Gold Price to $10,000 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Trump is going to the White House…
Just as I called on ABC Australia two weeks ago.
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Trump Win Signals $1,500 Gold and $24 Silver, predicts Nick Barisheff / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
According to Nick Barisheff, President and CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc. (BMG), "A Trump US presidential victory signals US$1,500 an ounce for gold and US$24 for silver in the intermediate term."
"Trump voters have now injected an unprecedented level of uncertainty into global financial markets," continued Barisheff. "Investors prefer clarity, and until President-elect Trump fully clarifies his economic, trade and foreign policy positions, investors will be in a high-alert state of uncertainty. Roiling markets will compel investors to purchase safe-haven assets, especially precious metals."
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Wednesday, November 09, 2016
Gold Surges 5% After America Votes Trump President / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
- Gold surged over 5% – from $1,270/oz to $1,335/oz prior to profit taking
- Gold jumped to its highest level in six weeks on early reports that Trump had won the race to the White House; Largest gains since Brexit shock
- For the next few days, we can expect to follow the “Brexit playbook”
- “We are looking at very real prospects that the Fed would defer that rate hike into 2017…”
Gold has surged more than 3% to over $1,300/oz today after the shock election of Donald J. Trump as the next President of the United States of America. At one stage gold was 5% higher having risen from $1,270/oz to $1,335/oz as the dollar and stocks globally saw sharp falls.
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