Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, November 21, 2016
An Honest Look at Gold Chartology / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
For the last two weeks, since the US elections, we’ve been discussing the possibility of strong inflection points building out on many different areas of the markets. These are areas where the markets can turn on a dime leaving those folks looking one way while the markets go the opposite way. Important inflection points are more of a price thing than a time thing. An inflection point can last days or weeks before they finally resolve themselves.
Lets start by looking at the US dollar, as it plays such a key role in so many markets. Below is a three year daily chart which shows its major impulse leg up out of the mid 2014 low, and topped out in the spring of 2015. For just under two years the US dollar has been chopping out a sideways trading range, rectangle consolidation pattern, and closed above the top rail this week. The breakout is not actually confirmed yet as the price action would have to close above the 103 area and then a backtest to the top rail around 100 would have to hold. For the time being, we have to give the benefit of a doubt, to the US dollar bulls until proven otherwise.
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Sunday, November 20, 2016
Gold's 2016 Bull Market Moving Off Course / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
While we expected additional weakness in Gold and gold stocks (weeks ago) we did not quite expect the kind of selling the sector experienced in the wake of Donald Trump's election victory. The market reacted by sending bond yields dramatically higher which resulted in stronger real interest rates, which is fundamentally negative for precious metals. This has created significant technical damage in the sector and has potentially thrown the 2016 bull off course.
Saturday, November 19, 2016
Speculators Are Finally Bailing Out Of Gold – And That’s A Good Thing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: John_Rubino
All this talk of massive new infrastructure spending financed with a tsunami of freshly-minted currency should be lighting a fire under gold. That it hasn’t is a testament to how out-of-whack the precious metals market had gotten during the first six months of this year.
As gold rose, the futures contract traders whose games tend to dictate near-term price action had set the metal up for a fall. Specifically, the speculators (who are always wrong at the extremes) were ridiculously long. With the suckers all-in, a big correction was needed to restore balance.
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Friday, November 18, 2016
Gold Mining Stocks Screaming Buy! Q3’16 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners just finished reporting their third-quarter results, which proved very impressive. While this small contrarian sector is now languishing in the doghouse following a brutal post-election selloff, the gold miners’ fundamentals are strengthening. Lower costs and higher gold prices led to surging operating cash flows and profits. The major gold miners are great fundamental bargains for contrarians today.
Gold-stock bulls are among the largest ever seen in all the markets. The flagship HUI gold-stock index skyrocketed 1664% higher over 10.8 years ending in September 2011, trouncing general-stock-market losses of 14% per the S&P 500. Even this year between mid-January and early August, the HUI soared 182% in just 6.5 months! Radical wealth-multiplying upside like that is well worth any psychological price.
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Friday, November 18, 2016
Trump’s Agenda Stacks the Odds in Gold’s Favor / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: John_Mauldin
"It's the economy, stupid."
This was the catch-phrase Bill Clinton’s campaign used in 1992 to help defeat George H.W. Bush. In this year’s presidential race, the slogan “Make America Great Again” branded the Trump campaign as a referendum against the economic policies of the current administration.
No matter the race—be it in local or national politics—the economy plays a crucial role in determining whether the incumbent party will retain office or relinquish it to another group.
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Friday, November 18, 2016
Crude Oil Bears State Prices Headed Lower - Bulls-Eye or Rubbish? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
"Anxiety is a thin stream of fear trickling through the mind. If encouraged, it cuts a channel into which all other thoughts are drained." ~ Arthur Somers Roche
2015 was a terrible year for oil and it looked like 2106 would even worse; oil dipped below $30.00 and all cockroaches (oops we mean analysts) started to state $10.00 oil was next. When we heard this nonsense, we penned an article titled will the crude oil price crash become even worse in 2016?
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Friday, November 18, 2016
Gold Sell Off On Fed Noise – “Interesting Times” To “Support Gold” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Gold prices in dollar terms came under renewed pressure today testing strong support at the $1,200/oz level. Gold dropped another 1% to near a 6 month low and is set for a second week of falls after the dollar soared again after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen suggested a U.S. interest-rate hike could come “relatively soon.”
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Friday, November 18, 2016
May Never Get Another Opportunity to Buy Gold at this Level Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Chris_Vermeulen
America has chosen Donald Trump to be its next President and the world markets, whether metals, gold, bonds, equities or Forex are all highly volatile. In fact, I got long GDX and NUGT last week for a quick 5% and 11% gain with gold miners, a get-in and get-out type of trade to take advantage of these extreme volatility levels.
While the initial projections were for a Brexit type turmoil in most markets, those predictions did not prove to be correct. The markets quickly reversed course and gave a strong Thumbs up to Trump’s policies.
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Friday, November 18, 2016
Are The Saudis About To Reveal The Best Kept Secret In Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
One of the oil world’s longest and best kept secrets may finally be revealed. Saudi Arabia is preparing to unveil how much oil it holds, a closely guarded state secret that has been kept quiet for decades.
The decision to bring such important data to light comes as Saudi Aramco is preparing to partially privatize its assets, an IPO that could bring in some $100 billion. The IPO will be a monumental event, one that the Wall Street Journal says could offer Wall Street some of the largest fees in history.
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Friday, November 18, 2016
If Only These Two Things Come to Pass, Crude Oil Prices Will Rise / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
Will oil prices recover as Wall Street presumes? That depends on the balance of supply and demand.
Climate change agreements notwithstanding, the world still burns and will go on burning a lot of fossil fuel. Slowing economic growth has reduced energy demand growth, but the absolute numbers remain strong. This will change as greener technology spreads, but very slowly.
The real mystery is on the supply side.
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Friday, November 18, 2016
Copper - When the Pendulum Swings / Commodities / Copper
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger equates the position of the financial markets to that of a protagonist in a classic horror story and reflects on recent moves in the copper market.
One of the greatest pastimes I enjoyed as a youth was reading books, and until adolescence, when I began to focus on history, my favorite reading genre was horror. Mary Shelley's "Frankenstein," Bram Stoker's "Dracula,” and "The Mummy" by Anne Rice were all books that resided in the bookshelf in our family room.
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Friday, November 18, 2016
7 Gold & Silver Mining Companies to Buy Before the End of the Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Headline news results in rash decisions; don't let Trump's victory distract you from the bigger picture, says Matt Geiger of MJG Capital. He explains why now is an excellent time to deploy capital into mining equities and highlights seven companies poised to deliver outsized returns.
We are still in the early stages of a four- or five-year resource bull market. Those who own hard assets will be heavily rewarded; those exposed to the general stock market (or, god forbid, government debt) are in for a rude awakening. What we are witnessing is reversion to the mean after a five-year period in which commodity prices slumped as financial assets inflated in price. The tide has shifted, and Trump instead Hillary in the Oval Office will have little effect on this reality.
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Thursday, November 17, 2016
Make Money Great Again: Vote for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: MoneyMetals
Who could possibly have predicted the astounding results of the November 8th presidential election?
A lot of folks, it turns out. Better than 60 million at last count. But that doesn't include highly paid, and obviously over-paid, pollsters.
And it doesn't include "journalists," who showered their elitist agendas on television screens, in newsprint headlines and across cyberspace during the 17-month presidential campaign.
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Thursday, November 17, 2016
Islamic Gold – Important New Dynamic In Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
- Next month, 1.6 billion people will have a new ‘gold investment standard’
- Gold bullion investments to become accessible to 25% of planet
- Islamic finance market expected to grow to US$5 trillion by 2020
- Islamic asset classes have all under performed compared to gold
- In 10 years, gold has risen over 367% in US dollar terms and by more in currencies used in Islamic countries
- Gold bullion products additionally appealing to Islamic banks due to Basel III rules
- New Sharia Gold Standard will impact gold price
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Gold In The Headlines (a different perspective) / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Kelsey_Williams
Investors Ditch Gold After Trump’s Win (Wall Street Journal 14Nov2016)
“Investors piled into gold when polls showed Donald Trump’s chances for victory were improving. Now that he has won the presidential election, they are selling.”
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Thursday, November 17, 2016
How To Determine The Future Price Of Silver? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: InvestingHaven
We very often get the question from readers how to read charts, and how to determine the future price of an asset or stock. Given the interest of many investors in precious metals, and lots of reactions we received on our future price of gold 2017 article, we explain in this article how we determine the future price of silver. Readers who are not interested in this chart analysis tutorial can consult our silver price forecast 2017 for our expected future silver price in 2017.
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Precious Metals Complex Update... / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
The inflection point in many of the different markets still continues to develop. The precious metals complex is approaching a very critical backtest to some important necklines we’ve been following. I added the GDXJ to the combo chart which shows the HUI, GLD, SLV and the GDXJ have all broken down below their respective necklines and are now in the process of backtesting those necklines from below. I can’t emphasize enough how critical this backtest is to the overall health of the impulse move out of the January low this year.
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Hidden Signs for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver and mining stocks moved higher yesterday, even though the USD Index moved higher as well, which had bullish implications. Based on the closing prices and the rally in mining stocks that took place in the second half of yesterday's session, it seems that closing our extra-large short positions and taking profits off the table early in the session was a good idea. However, that's not the only thing that changed in the precious metals market and the area surrounding it – some signs are not as clear, but just as important. Let's take a closer look at the charts for details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Gold: What's Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Axel_Merk
After an initial surge in the hours after Donald Trump’s election, the price of gold has been under pressure. To gauge what’s ahead for the yellow metal, we dissect the forces that may be at play.
We have argued in the past that for investors to consider any investment, including gold, in their portfolio, it needs to satisfy two conditions: it needs to exhibit low correlation to their existing investments; and there should be an expectation of a positive return. Let’s evaluate the changing investment landscape for gold in the context of the election:
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Non-USD Picture of Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions (with a stop-loss order at $41.39 and initial upside target at $49.53) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil moved lower after the markets open, oil bulls stopped further deterioration and triggered a rebound in the following hours. As a result, light crude erased most of earlier losses and closed the day above Friday’s low. What can we expect in the coming days?
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